Bath trainer stats ALL RACES 2005- 2009 (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

 Best races for favourites:

Newmarket  1.55

Newbury 2.45, 5.05

Haydock 6.40

Lingfield 6.50, 7.20, 7.50

In running notes

Horses I expect to trade lower “in running” – offering either free bets nothing or arbing opportunities to win money whatever the result:

3.25 Ripon Templetuohy Max

5.15 Newmarket Sutton Veny

 6.50 Lingfield Sermons Mount

 8.10 Haydock  Welsh Emperor

NEGATIVE STATS

5.30    Nottingham – Sacrilege

6.45    Salisbury – Pragmatist

8.25    Salisbury – Shy

All have poor stats.

Moving onto Trainers in form with runners tonight:

Name                      Engagements

J C Fox                    Sali 6.45

R Charlton                Sali 7.20, Sali 8.55

A C Whillans             Hami 6.30, Hami 8.40

J Noseda                 Sali 7.50

Micky Hammond        Hami 8.40

T D Barron               Hami 7.00

J L Dunlop                Sali 6.15, Sali 7.20, Sali 7.20, Sali 7.50

L M Cumani              Sali 7.50

 BEST RACES FOR FAVOURITES

1.55, 3.35, 4.45 Leicester

2.35 Sandown

5.35 Beverley

6.40 Nottingham

7.25, 8.55 Carlisle

 LAST TIME OUT WINNERS TO AVOID – these LTO have poor stats and are unlikely to follow up their recent win

3.25    Haydock – Hillview Boy

4.10    Leicester – Indian Skipper

4.50    Sandown – Mass Rally

5.20    Leicester – Bidable

6. 55   Carlisle – Feeling Fresh

TRAINERS IN FORM  (engagements today in breackets)

Mrs L Williamson (Nott 7.10)

R Charlton (Hayd 2.50, Hayd 4.00, Hayd 4.35, Hayd 5.10, Hayd 5.45, Nott 8.40)

M A Jarvis (Hayd 3.25, Leic 3.35, Leic 4.10, Sand 3.10, Sand 3.40, Sand 4.15, Sand 4.50)

R M Beckett (Hayd 2.15, Leic 3.35, Nott 7.10, Nott 8.40)

J L Dunlop (Hayd 2.15, Hayd 3.25)

L M Cumani (Hayd 3.25, Sand 2.35, Sand 4.15, Sand 5.25)

Newmarket 1.45

Windsor 2.25

Newcastle 5.20

Doncaster 6.40; 8.15

Lingfield 7.25

Draw biases today

4.30    Newmarket – Liberty Cap: J Gosden – 2yo maiden races at Newmarket; top 4 in the betting SR 26.8% ROI +42.3%

 4.30    Newmarket – Riot Police: J Gosden – 2yo maiden races at Newmarket; top 4 in the betting SR 26.8% ROI +42.3%

 5.05    Newmarket – Ertikaan **: M Jarvis – 3yos in non handicaps NOT Group/Listed class; top 5 in the betting SR 28.7%; ROI +23.7%

 7.20    Lingfield – Tell Halaf: J Spencer riding for M Bell; 2 and 3yos; must be top 3 in the betting; SR 30.9%; ROI +26% 

8.35    Haydock – Thabit: M Jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 28%; ROI +69.2%

Although only 3 of the 13 favourites won (5 or more won have secured a profit); the draw bias proved a real winner. I told you HIGH draws were the ones to be on at Lingfield in the 6.20 and 6.50. In the 6.20 the winner Doctor Hilary was drawn third highest in draw 14, while the runner up Bobs Dreamflight was drawn in the highest stall 16. The winner was a massive 28/1 SP but even bigger 41.82 on Betfair SP; the exacta (1st and 2nd) paid a huge £421.60 for a £1 stake! I personally did the straight forecast but that still paid a healthy enough £269.44 for my pound!

In the 6.50 the highest drawn horse Prime Circle won at 10/1 (Betfair SP 14); the second horse Cardinal was drawn 4th highest and the 4th Tenancy was drawn 3rd highest.

In addition to the great draw advice, the section ‘LTO winners with STRONG NEGATIVES (horses not to back)’ produced an 100% success rate. Of the 6 runners noted, one was a non runner while the other 5 all finished unplaced (prices 5/2, 6/1, 7/1, 8/1, 33/1).

Best races for favourites

Leicester 6.30, 7.05

Lingfield 5.50, 6.20, 6.50

Sandown 2.55, 4.05, 4.40, 5.15

 York 2.05, 2.40, 4.20, 5.25

Best races for draw bias

6.20 Lingfield – HIGH

 6.50 Lingfield – HIGH

LTO winners with STRONG NEGATIVES (horses not to back)

1.45    Sandown – Nazreef

2.05    York – Southern Regent 

3.50    York – Solicitor

5.05    Bath – Duneen Dream

 5.25    York – Lucky Dan

 5.35    Bath – Light Dubai