I still love betting in sprints, but as I have said many times over the past two or three years it is becoming harder and harder. The reason this is the case as far as I am concerned is simple - draw bias is diminishing at some courses and difficult to predict at others. The draw bias factor has always been a strong weapon in my punting armory and most of my best bets have consistently come from using draw bias in one form or another. It may have been the course in question on the day, or it may have been down to the horse racing from a poor draw in the recent past. This avenue of good bets though is steadily decreasing, but the key is to stay one step ahead of the crowd. In the past knowing draw biases was crucial – now it is just as important to know where bias is diminishing or changing. If you can appreciate the changes then value bets pop up elsewhere – for example, if a high draw bias does not exist any more, but the general consensus is that it does, then horses that are not drawn high suddenly become value prices.

In this article I seek to identify such circumstances where conventional punter wisdom may lead the majority astray thus producing betting value for the more aware.

The rest of this article is only available to Full members