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What a difference a day makes


One area that I have never looked into is whether the day of the week makes any difference in terms of trainer performance. My guess is that as trainers tend to follow similar patterns in terms of race type, age group, monthly patterns, etc, there is a good chance they conform to some kind of “days of the week pattern”. In other words, I would imagine some trainer perform better on certain days of the week.

 

The data has been taken from the year 2000 to August 14th 2008 for all turf races. All profits and losses are quoted to £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment.

 

Sunday

 

Let us start with Sundays – Sunday racing has grown in recent years and it will be interesting to see which trainers do well on this particular day. From a small owner’s point of view, Sundays are the best day to race their horses as there are no entry fees on that day.

 

The table below looks at the top 10 trainers on Sundays in terms of strike rate:

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

S Bin Suroor

101

34

33.7%

+£11.21

+11.1%

M Tregoning

106

35

33.0%

+£61.43

+58.0%

J Noseda

79

18

22.8%

-£19.17

-24.3%

Sir M Stoute

244

53

21.7%

-£41.57

-17.0%

R Charlton

117

25

21.4%

+£8.20

+7.0%

Sir M Prescott

86

18

20.9%

-£27.39

-31.8%

E Dunlop

161

33

20.5%

-£28.31

-17.6%

J Gosden

222

45

20.3%

-£10.71

-4.8%

M Johnston

422

79

18.7%

-£14.19

-3.4%

T Mills

65

12

18.5%

+£29.33

+45.1%

 

It is interesting to see that all those trainers in the list are from the top echelons of the training ranks. The strike rates for Bin Suroor and Tregoning are exceptional, both being over 30%. Both have not surprisingly made a ‘blind’ profit, although Tregoning has produced particularly impressive returns. Tregoning has an overall strike rate of 17.6% over the 7 day period, so his Sunday strike rate is almost double that. Another trainer worth mentioning is Ed Dunlop. He has an overall strike rate of 12.3%, so his Sunday strike rate of 20.5% is definitely a positive.

 

Looking at more specific angles, Bin Suroor is worth noting at any Northern track on a Sunday thanks to 11 wins from 19 (SR 57.9%). He also has a decent record in lower grade events – class 5 or lower races has seen 8 wins from 12 (SR 66.7%). Moving back to Tregoning – at Ascot on a Sunday his record is unbelievable with 10 wins from 18 (SR 55.5%) for a profit of £20.82 (ROI +115.7%). The market has been an excellent guide for Tregoning runners – favourites have won 18 from 27 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £19.68 (ROI +72.9%); second favourites have won 10 from 25 (SR 40%) for a profit of £21.75 (ROI +87.0%).

 

There are other trainers worth mentioning that have not made the top ten. Willie Muir has a 13.2% strike rate on Sundays producing a return of nearly 20%. Compare this with his overall strike rate of 6.9% and losses of nearly 40%. He has an especially good record in handicaps. Another trainer to mention is Ian Williams – he has a Sunday strike rate of 16.1% compared with an overall strike rate of 7.8%.

 

Monday

 

The first day of the week is usually a quiet racing day with limited meetings, and meetings of moderate quality.

 

Trainer

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

S Bin Suroor

141

50

35.5%

+£34.61

+24.5%

Sir M Stoute

443

114

25.7%

-£26.00

-5.9%

Sir M Prescott

222

52

23.4%

-£16.88

-7.6%

H Cecil

162

36

22.2%

-£24.84

-15.3%

J Noseda

167

32

19.2%

-£22.90

-13.7%

P Chapple-Hyam

91

17

18.7%

-£27.06

-29.7%

J Gosden

307

57

18.6%

-£93.95

-30.6%

R Charlton

294

52

17.7%

-£32.71

-11.1%

W Haggas

294

52

17.7%

+£17.71

+6.0%

M Jarvis

305

52

17.0%

-£25.66

-8.4%

 

Saeed Bin Suroor again tops the list and he there are several positives worth noting:

 

Variable

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Epsom

6

6

100.0%

+£19.39

+323.2%

August - October

85

36

42.4%

+£33.55

+39.5%

Novice races

6

5

83.3%

+£8.21

+136.8%

2yo races

46

18

39.1%

+£24.47

+53.2%

 

An amazing 6 from 6 at Epsom – it may be only 6 runs, but to produce 6 wins from those 6 runs is impressive. In addition to this, any Bin Suroor 2yo must be taken seriously, especially if racing in a novice race.

 

Sir Michael Stoute has a good record on Mondays and he sends out several runners at Windsor who tend to have the majority of their meetings on a Monday. There are four very positive angles for Stoute on this day of the week:

 

Variable

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Ayr

8

5

62.5%

+£9.21

+115.1%

Yarmouth

11

8

72.7%

+£10.66

+96.9%

4yos

28

13

46.4%

+£22.49

+80.3%

Days off track – 8 weeks or more

81

27

33.3%

+£49.11

+60.6%

 

One trainer not in the main list worth mentioning is the Newmarket trainer Rae Guest – he has an excellent record with bigger priced runners on a Monday – with runners priced 10/1 to 33/1 he has saddled an extremely impressive 13 winners from 94 runners (SR 13.8%) for a substantial profit of £145.00 (ROI +154.3%).

 

Friday

 

Friday is the next day I am going to examine. Friday racing attracts plenty of meetings in the summer months with often 5 or 6 meetings on each day.

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Sir M Prescott

237

61

25.7%

-£13.92

-5.9%

S Bin Suroor

353

86

24.4%

-£16.72

-4.7%

J Noseda

320

63

19.7%

-£1.99

-0.6%

J Gosden

660

128

19.4%

+£54.06

+8.2%

Sir M Stoute

649

120

18.5%

-£145.09

-22.4%

H Cecil

312

54

17.3%

-£36.35

-11.7%

G Swinbank

226

38

16.8%

+£15.24

+6.7%

J Fanshawe

411

69

16.8%

-£44.30

-10.8%

M Johnston

1090

181

16.6%

-£50.37

-4.6%

W Kittow

62

10

16.1%

+£28.45

+45.9%

 

Bin Suroor for once does not top list, but still rates second in terms of strike rate. Sir Mark Prescott does well on Fridays and there are some positive angles worth noting:

 

Variable

Runs

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Newmarket

17

7

41.2%

+£8.68

+51.1%

Nottingham

16

6

37.5%

+£37.55

+234.7%

Class 3 or higher

47

17

40.0%

+£19.44

+41.4%

Jockey S Sanders

103

34

33.0%

+£40.96

+39.8%

LTO winner

59

30

50.8%

+£21.29

+36.1%

Down in class

36

13

36.1%

+£21.12

+58.7%

 

Newmarket stages several evening meetings on a Friday and Prescott has done well at these meetings. Arguably the most interesting stat is his outstanding record with LTO winners – over 50% strike rate is quite phenomenal.

 

It is difficult to decide how relevant the figures are in terms of individual days of the week, but it is certainly an interesting new angle to think about. Most of the top trainers have the best strike rates as one would expect, but for those interested in this idea it may pay dividends to look at less fashionable trainers. This is something I will personally do over the coming months.

 

Perhaps the most interesting set of stats come on the most competitive day of the week – namely Saturday. However, that is for another article in the future………………………

 








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