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What a difference a day makes

One area that I have never looked into is whether the day of the week makes any difference in terms of trainer performance. My guess is that as trainers tend to follow similar patterns in terms of race type, age group, monthly patterns, etc, there is a good chance they conform to some kind of “days of the week pattern”. In other words, I would imagine some trainer perform better on certain days of the week.

 

The data has been taken from the year 2000 to August 14th 2008 for all turf races. All profits and losses are quoted to £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment.

 
Sunday
 

Let us start with Sundays – Sunday racing has grown in recent years and it will be interesting to see which trainers do well on this particular day. From a small owner’s point of view, Sundays are the best day to race their horses as there are no entry fees on that day.

 

The table below looks at the top 10 trainers on Sundays in terms of strike rate:

 
Trainer
Runs
Wins
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
S Bin Suroor
101
34
33.7%
+£11.21
+11.1%
M Tregoning
106
35
33.0%
+£61.43
+58.0%
J Noseda
79
18
22.8%
-£19.17
-24.3%
Sir M Stoute
244
53
21.7%
-£41.57
-17.0%
R Charlton
117
25
21.4%
+£8.20
+7.0%
Sir M Prescott
86
18
20.9%
-£27.39
-31.8%
E Dunlop
161
33
20.5%
-£28.31
-17.6%
J Gosden
222
45
20.3%
-£10.71
-4.8%
M Johnston
422
79
18.7%
-£14.19
-3.4%
T Mills
65
12
18.5%
+£29.33
+45.1%
 

It is interesting to see that all those trainers in the list are from the top echelons of the training ranks. The strike rates for Bin Suroor and Tregoning are exceptional, both being over 30%. Both have not surprisingly made a ‘blind’ profit, although Tregoning has produced particularly impressive returns. Tregoning has an overall strike rate of 17.6% over the 7 day period, so his Sunday strike rate is almost double that. Another trainer worth mentioning is Ed Dunlop. He has an overall strike rate of 12.3%, so his Sunday strike rate of 20.5% is definitely a positive.

 

Looking at more specific angles, Bin Suroor is worth noting at any Northern track on a Sunday thanks to 11 wins from 19 (SR 57.9%). He also has a decent record in lower grade events – class 5 or lower races has seen 8 wins from 12 (SR 66.7%). Moving back to Tregoning – at Ascot on a Sunday his record is unbelievable with 10 wins from 18 (SR 55.5%) for a profit of £20.82 (ROI +115.7%). The market has been an excellent guide for Tregoning runners – favourites have won 18 from 27 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £19.68 (ROI +72.9%); second favourites have won 10 from 25 (SR 40%) for a profit of £21.75 (ROI +87.0%).

 

There are other trainers worth mentioning that have not made the top ten. Willie Muir has a 13.2% strike rate on Sundays producing a return of nearly 20%. Compare this with his overall strike rate of 6.9% and losses of nearly 40%. He has an especially good record in handicaps. Another trainer to mention is Ian Williams – he has a Sunday strike rate of 16.1% compared with an overall strike rate of 7.8%.

 
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