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What a difference a day makes
One area that I have never looked into is whether the day of the week makes any difference in terms of trainer performance. My guess is that as trainers tend to follow similar patterns in terms of race type, age group, monthly patterns, etc, there is a good chance they conform to some kind of “days of the week pattern”. In other words, I would imagine some trainer perform better on certain days of the week.
The data has been taken from the year 2000 to August 14th 2008 for all turf races. All profits and losses are quoted to £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment.
Let us start with Sundays – Sunday racing has grown in recent years and it will be interesting to see which trainers do well on this particular day. From a small owner’s point of view, Sundays are the best day to race their horses as there are no entry fees on that day.
The table below looks at the top 10 trainers on Sundays in terms of strike rate:
It is interesting to see that all those trainers in the list are from the top echelons of the training ranks. The strike rates for Bin Suroor and Tregoning are exceptional, both being over 30%. Both have not surprisingly made a ‘blind’ profit, although Tregoning has produced particularly impressive returns. Tregoning has an overall strike rate of 17.6% over the 7 day period, so his Sunday strike rate is almost double that. Another trainer worth mentioning is Ed Dunlop. He has an overall strike rate of 12.3%, so his Sunday strike rate of 20.5% is definitely a positive.
Looking at more specific angles, Bin Suroor is worth noting at any Northern track on a Sunday thanks to 11 wins from 19 (SR 57.9%). He also has a decent record in lower grade events – class 5 or lower races has seen 8 wins from 12 (SR 66.7%). Moving back to Tregoning – at Ascot on a Sunday his record is unbelievable with 10 wins from 18 (SR 55.5%) for a profit of £20.82 (ROI +115.7%). The market has been an excellent guide for Tregoning runners – favourites have won 18 from 27 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £19.68 (ROI +72.9%); second favourites have won 10 from 25 (SR 40%) for a profit of £21.75 (ROI +87.0%).
There are other trainers worth mentioning that have not made the top ten. Willie Muir has a 13.2% strike rate on Sundays producing a return of nearly 20%. Compare this with his overall strike rate of 6.9% and losses of nearly 40%. He has an especially good record in handicaps. Another trainer to mention is Ian Williams – he has a Sunday strike rate of 16.1% compared with an overall strike rate of 7.8%.
The first day of the week is usually a quiet racing day with limited meetings, and meetings of moderate quality.
Saeed Bin Suroor again tops the list and he there are several positives worth noting:
An amazing 6 from 6 at Epsom – it may be only 6 runs, but to produce 6 wins from those 6 runs is impressive. In addition to this, any Bin Suroor 2yo must be taken seriously, especially if racing in a novice race.
Sir Michael Stoute has a good record on Mondays and he sends out several runners at Windsor who tend to have the majority of their meetings on a Monday. There are four very positive angles for Stoute on this day of the week:
One trainer not in the main list worth mentioning is the Newmarket trainer Rae Guest – he has an excellent record with bigger priced runners on a Monday – with runners priced 10/1 to 33/1 he has saddled an extremely impressive 13 winners from 94 runners (SR 13.8%) for a substantial profit of £145.00 (ROI +154.3%).
Friday is the next day I am going to examine. Friday racing attracts plenty of meetings in the summer months with often 5 or 6 meetings on each day.
Bin Suroor for once does not top list, but still rates second in terms of strike rate. Sir Mark Prescott does well on Fridays and there are some positive angles worth noting:
Newmarket stages several evening meetings on a Friday and Prescott has done well at these meetings. Arguably the most interesting stat is his outstanding record with LTO winners – over 50% strike rate is quite phenomenal.
It is difficult to decide how relevant the figures are in terms of individual days of the week, but it is certainly an interesting new angle to think about. Most of the top trainers have the best strike rates as one would expect, but for those interested in this idea it may pay dividends to look at less fashionable trainers. This is something I will personally do over the coming months.
Perhaps the most interesting set of stats come on the most competitive day of the week – namely Saturday. However, that is for another article in the future………………………
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