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Useful Racing Facts
This month I have updated some statistics I unearthed last year, that hopefully will give you more chance of finding that winning bet, or more importantly avoiding a losing one. I have used data from 1986 to 2003 :
1. The sex of a horse makes a difference when carrying a penalty. Colts and geldings have a far superior record to fillies and mares.
Colts / geldings when carrying a penalty - 1625 wins from 8199 runners. Strike rate 19.8% for a small loss on investment of 4.1%.
Fillies / mares when carrying a penalty - 546 wins from 3214 runners. Strike rate 17.0% for a much bigger loss on investment of 17.3%.
2. Horses blinkered for the first time are known to be poor investments. However, these investments get worse the older the horse.
Two year olds blinkered for the first time - 227 wins from 3618 runners. Strike rate 6.3% for a loss of 44.3%.
Five year olds or older blinkered for the first time - 61 wins from 1460 runners. Strike rate 4.2% for a loss of 53.1%.
3. Races with no last time out winners are less competitive than those with 5 or more last time out winners.
This fact looks logical, but do people take this into account when betting?
Backing the favourite in a race with no last time out winners gave the following results - Strike rate 29.0% for a loss of only 8.3%.
Backing the favourite in a race with 5 or more last time out winners gave the following results - Strike rate 21.7% for a loss of 17.3%.
4. Horses that are forecast favourites do considerably better if they actually start as favourite.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are favourite at SP win 34.9% of their races.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are not favourite at SP win only 18.1% of their races.
5. Horses having their first or second run of the season perform much more poorly than horses that are having their 5th, 6th or 7th start of the season.
As with point 3, this should not be a major surprise, but there is a bigger difference in the profit / loss figures than one might imagine.
Horses that are having their first or second run of the season - strike rate 8.2% for a loss of 40.5%.
Horses having their 5th, 6th or 7th run of the season - strike rate 10.1% for a loss of 25.4%.
6. Beaten favourites are generally poor investments, but if the horse starts favourite again then their chance of winning increases considerably.
Horses that were beaten favourites last time out and do NOT start favourite on their next start - strike rate 11.4% for a loss of 18.8%.
Horses that were beaten favourites last time out and DO start favourite on their next start - strike rate 34.3% for a loss of just 5.3%.
7. Horses that won their last ran and travel from overseas are worth consideration.
Backing last time out winners coming from overseas have made an overall profit in the 18 years of study. 93 winners from 515 runners produced a strike rate of 18.1% and a small profit on investment.
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