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Turf And All Weather Sire Research
Turf And All Weather Sire Research by David Renham
Sire stats are still relatively underused by the general betting fraternity, me included. My favoured betting medium has always been all age handicaps, especially sprints, so for me, the use of sire stats has never been top of my list. However, for punters betting on unexposed 2 year olds, or horses that have yet to race on certain going, sire stats can be an invaluable tool. With the all weather season soon to be upon us, I thought I would compare the records of sires on turf and the all weather. The data collated is from Jan 1st 2000 to the middle of September 2009 – sires with 50 runs or more on the all weather and 100 or more runs on the turf have been included.
My idea for the research is fairly simple to note sires that seem to perform significantly better on either turf, or on the all weather. Firstly then, which horses perform much better on the all weather compared with the turf? Below is a table showing the relevant sires with their overall strike rate on the all weather, their overall strike rate on turf, and a calculation simply dividing their all weather strike rate by their turf strike rate.
I have used a figure of 1.5 as the cut off point. Essentially then if a sire has a figure of 2 in the ‘aw/turf’ column then in layman terms it means that the sire has been twice as successful on the all weather in terms of strike rate. Now, let us be clear – this first table is simply a starting point for further research. You cannot blindly backing all horses on the all weather with sires on this list! However, any sire in the list is worth further exploration. Unfortunately the top two sires in the table have very few runners and with such low strike rates there is no real edge to be gained there. However, let us look in more detail at couple of other sires:
Fusaichi Pegasus – his record is twice as good on the sand as it is on the turf. To date he has had 36 horses that have tackled an all weather surface and 14 have won – that equates to a progeny win rate of around 39%. His runners seem to like Southwell and Kempton, while the distance stats make interesting reading. Currently the strike rate for his runners on the all weather over 5 & 6f is just 5.3%; over 7f or more it is a very healthy 23%. This is the reverse on turf as he has a better record over 5 & 6f so I am not sure how to interpret that. One point worth noting is that when his runners are fancied on the all weather (favourite or second favourite) they have performed very well with 17 wins from 39 (SR 43.6%) for a profit of £21.08 (ROI +54.1%).
Fantastic Light – as a racehorse Fantastic Light ran solely on turf (25 runs with an impressive 12 wins). However, as a sire, his record is better on the all weather. To date he has already had 38 different winners on the sand and his record in 2009 has been particularly impressive – 19 wins from 88 (SR 21.6%) for a profit of £51.89 (ROI +59%). His runners produce similar strike rates in terms of age so there is no age bias to worry about. However, one fact definitely worth knowing is that his male runners totally outperform his female ones. Male runners have a strike rate of 17.1%; female runners have a strike rate of just 8.3%. Digging a bit deeper it should be noted that colts score around 22% of the time compared with geldings at around 15%.
I have picked out just a couple of sires, but there is plenty of scope to look in more detail at all of the runners in the table.
Of course knowing which sires perform better on the all weather than the turf should be very helpful this winter. However, it is equally important to know which runners underperform on the all weather compared with the turf. Here is a table that help show this:
As with the previous table, these sires require further investigation, but it should be a useful starting point. Here are four useful facts about four of the sires in the table:
It is clear from simply scratching the surface, some sire research will certainly help when having a bet on the all weather. However, before I sign off, here are three more tables that I hope you will find useful:
Sire record with horses making debut on the all weather who have already run at least 3 times on turf – best strike rates (min. 50 runs)
Sire record with 2yo runners on the all weather – best strike rates (min. 50 runs)
Sire record at Southwell (AW) – best strike rates (min. 50 runs)
Southwell is the only fibresand surface and hence can suit different horses
I know many readers will be backing almost exclusively over the sticks this weather. However, if you take some time to study all weather racing, there are opportunities to gain an edge and hence make some money
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