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Turf And All Weather Sire Research


 

Turf And All Weather Sire Research by David Renham

 

Sire stats are still relatively underused by the general betting fraternity, me included. My favoured betting medium has always been all age handicaps, especially sprints, so for me, the use of sire stats has never been top of my list. However, for punters betting on unexposed 2 year olds, or horses that have yet to race on certain going, sire stats can be an invaluable tool. With the all weather season soon to be upon us, I thought I would compare the records of sires on turf and the all weather. The data collated is from Jan 1st 2000 to the middle of September 2009 – sires with 50 runs or more on the all weather and 100 or more runs on the turf have been included.

 

My idea for the research is fairly simple to note sires that seem to perform significantly better on either turf, or on the all weather. Firstly then, which horses perform much better on the all weather compared with the turf? Below is a table showing the relevant sires with their overall strike rate on the all weather, their overall strike rate on turf, and a calculation simply dividing their all weather strike rate by their turf strike rate.

 

Sire

aw %

turf %

aw/turf

Baryshnikov (AUS)

8.93

2

4.47

Tumbleweed Ridge

6.25

1.75

3.57

Storming Home

30.19

11.39

2.65

Haafhd

25

9.52

2.63

Agnes World (USA)

12.56

5.73

2.19

Street Cry (IRE)

20.22

9.64

2.1

Fusaichi Pegasus (USA)

17.6

8.73

2.02

Grand Slam (USA)

11.28

5.65

2

Royal Academy (USA)

13.11

6.9

1.9

Compton Admiral

12.64

6.78

1.86

Best of The Bests (IRE)

11.11

5.99

1.85

City On A Hill (USA)

10.26

5.56

1.85

Zaha (CAN)

6.41

3.54

1.81

Millkom

14.41

7.99

1.8

Almushtarak (IRE)

15

8.33

1.8

More Than Ready (USA)

18.52

10.56

1.75

Desert Sun

13.31

8.05

1.65

Dubai Destination (USA)

18.18

11.07

1.64

Bahhare (USA)

12.07

7.36

1.64

Fantastic Light (USA)

14.16

8.66

1.64

Traditionally (USA)

8.53

5.24

1.63

Stravinsky (USA)

12.84

7.98

1.61

Wizard King

8.82

5.49

1.61

Exceed And Excel (AUS)

19.66

12.27

1.6

Where Or When (IRE)

12.07

7.57

1.59

Chester House (USA)

22.39

14.38

1.56

Verglas (IRE)

14.56

9.38

1.55

Woodborough (USA)

9.61

6.2

1.55

Lujain (USA)

10.58

6.83

1.55

Linamix (FR)

13.49

8.78

1.54

Woodman (USA)

11.2

7.34

1.53

Arkadian Hero (USA)

8.05

5.31

1.52

Golan (IRE)

11.45

7.58

1.51

Theatrical

16.94

11.28

1.5

Arch (USA)

21.43

14.29

1.5

 

I have used a figure of 1.5 as the cut off point. Essentially then if a sire has a figure of 2 in the ‘aw/turf’ column then in layman terms it means that the sire has been twice as successful on the all weather in terms of strike rate. Now, let us be clear – this first table is simply a starting point for further research. You cannot blindly backing all horses on the all weather with sires on this list! However, any sire in the list is worth further exploration. Unfortunately the top two sires in the table have very few runners and with such low strike rates there is no real edge to be gained there. However, let us look in more detail at couple of other sires:

 

Fusaichi Pegasus – his record is twice as good on the sand as it is on the turf. To date he has had 36 horses that have tackled an all weather surface and 14 have won – that equates to a progeny win rate of around 39%. His runners seem to like Southwell and Kempton, while the distance stats make interesting reading. Currently the strike rate for his runners on the all weather over 5 & 6f is just 5.3%; over 7f or more it is a very healthy 23%. This is the reverse on turf as he has a better record over 5 & 6f so I am not sure how to interpret that. One point worth noting is that when his runners are fancied on the all weather (favourite or second favourite) they have performed very well with 17 wins from 39 (SR 43.6%) for a profit of £21.08 (ROI +54.1%).

 

Fantastic Light – as a racehorse Fantastic Light ran solely on turf (25 runs with an impressive 12 wins). However, as a sire, his record is better on the all weather. To date he has already had 38 different winners on the sand and his record in 2009 has been particularly impressive – 19 wins from 88 (SR 21.6%) for a profit of £51.89 (ROI +59%). His runners produce similar strike rates in terms of age so there is no age bias to worry about. However, one fact definitely worth knowing is that his male runners totally outperform his female ones. Male runners have a strike rate of 17.1%; female runners have a strike rate of just 8.3%. Digging a bit deeper it should be noted that colts score around 22% of the time compared with geldings at around 15%.

 

I have picked out just a couple of sires, but there is plenty of scope to look in more detail at all of the runners in the table.

Of course knowing which sires perform better on the all weather than the turf should be very helpful this winter. However, it is equally important to know which runners underperform on the all weather compared with the turf. Here is a table that help show this:

 

Sire

turf %

aw%

Turf/aw

Raise A Grand (IRE)

7.6

3

2.53

Slip Anchor

9.91

3.95

2.51

High Estate

6.69

2.74

2.44

Superior Premium

6.64

2.78

2.39

Erhaab (USA)

7.33

3.21

2.28

Mull of Kintyre (USA)

10

4.52

2.21

Dr Devious (IRE)

10.14

4.98

2.04

Indian Haven

8.41

4.35

1.93

Cloudings (IRE)

5.24

2.99

1.75

Pyrus (USA)

11.49

6.56

1.75

Big Shuffle (USA)

12.35

7.06

1.75

Zilzal (USA)

9.22

5.5

1.68

Inchinor

10.29

6.2

1.66

Medaaly

8.93

5.56

1.61

Peintre Celebre (USA)

13.62

8.7

1.57

Reel Buddy (USA)

6.5

4.24

1.53

Fruits Of Love (USA)

9.6

6.29

1.53

Tale Of The Cat (USA)

13.21

8.74

1.51

Nashwan (USA)

12.88

8.64

1.49

Revoque (IRE)

9.85

6.61

1.49

Acatenango (GER)

11.16

7.61

1.47

Abou Zouz (USA)

5.58

3.81

1.46

Spartacus (IRE)

8.47

5.81

1.46

My Best Valentine

5.61

3.85

1.46

Lomitas

13.91

9.57

1.45

Almutawakel

11.03

7.59

1.45

Sinndar (IRE)

11.62

8

1.45

 

As with the previous table, these sires require further investigation, but it should be a useful starting point. Here are four useful facts about four of the sires in the table:

 

  1. Nashwan has a particularly poor record at Southwell with a strike rate of only 6.1% and losses of over 72% (this equates to losses of 72 pence in every £). Unfortunately he is a sire that is coming to the end of his stud career, but even so any of his runners at Southwell should be avoided;
  2. Peintre Celebre has had 42 runners aged 4 or older on the all weather and all 42 have lost;
  3. Zilzal’s record on Polytrack is dismal with a strike rate of just 4%. Compare this with his record on good to soft or softer turf which sees a strike rate of 13%;
  4. Sinndar is 0 from 24 at Southwell, with just 1 placed effort!

It is clear from simply scratching the surface, some sire research will certainly help when having a bet on the all weather. However, before I sign off, here are three more tables that I hope you will find useful:

 

Sire record with horses making debut on the all weather who have already run at least 3 times on turf – best strike rates (min. 50 runs)

 

Sire

Wins

Runs

Strike rate (%)

Fasliyev (USA)

16

80

20.0

Machiavellian (USA)

11

56

19.6

Danetime (IRE)

10

60

16.7

King's Best (USA)

11

66

16.7

Mujadil (USA)

17

106

16.0

Dansili

12

75

16.0

Cape Cross (IRE)

13

86

15.1

Green Desert (USA)

12

81

14.8

Desert Prince (IRE)

9

62

14.5

Cadeaux Genereux

17

118

14.4

Efisio

13

91

14.3

Marju (IRE)

11

82

13.4

Red Ransom (USA)

7

53

13.2

Spectrum (IRE)

9

71

12.7

Desert Style (IRE)

7

58

12.1

Polar Falcon (USA)

7

59

11.9

Groom Dancer (USA)

6

52

11.5

 

Sire record with 2yo runners on the all weather – best strike rates (min. 50 runs)

 

Sire

Wins

Runs

Strike rate (%)

Grand Lodge (USA)

22

100

22.0

Exceed And Excel (AUS)

15

69

21.7

Cape Cross (IRE)

28

135

20.7

Soviet Star (USA)

15

75

20.0

Intikhab (USA)

18

94

19.1

Pivotal

20

108

18.5

Invincible Spirit (IRE)

26

144

18.1

Orpen (USA)

19

106

17.9

Dubai Destination (USA)

15

86

17.4

Green Desert (USA)

13

75

17.3

Stravinsky (USA)

9

53

17.0

Rahy (USA)

10

59

16.9

Dansili

16

95

16.8

Red Ransom (USA)

12

76

15.8

Kheleyf (USA)

12

76

15.8

Efisio

18

114

15.8

Cadeaux Genereux

15

97

15.5

Fath (USA)

13

85

15.3

Woodborough (USA)

15

101

14.9

Desert Sun

11

75

14.7

Fasliyev (USA)

22

155

14.2

Titus Livius (FR)

16

113

14.2

King's Best (USA)

13

93

14.0

 

Sire record at Southwell (AW) – best strike rates (min. 50 runs)

 

Southwell is the only fibresand surface and hence can suit different horses

 

Sire

Wins

Runs

Strike rate (%)

Elnadim (USA)

11

52

21.2

Medicean

18

89

20.2

Generous (IRE)

15

79

19

Docksider (USA)

12

65

18.5

Dr Fong (USA)

26

143

18.2

Kingmambo (USA)

10

55

18.2

Rahy (USA)

9

50

18

Fasliyev (USA)

26

148

17.6

Dansili

17

98

17.3

Sure Blade (USA)

13

75

17.3

Halling (USA)

13

76

17.1

Rainbow Quest (USA)

13

78

16.7

Hernando (FR)

18

109

16.5

Key Of Luck (USA)

17

103

16.5

Stravinsky (USA)

20

125

16

Bahhare (USA)

11

70

15.7

Trans Island

15

97

15.5

Second Empire (IRE)

13

87

14.9

Singspiel (IRE)

10

67

14.9

Mujahid (USA)

20

134

14.9

Alzao (USA)

16

108

14.8

Danehill (USA)

17

116

14.7

Shinko Forest (IRE)

15

103

14.6

Marju (IRE)

21

146

14.4

Machiavellian (USA)

30

209

14.4

Captain Rio

20

142

14.1

 

I know many readers will be backing almost exclusively over the sticks this weather. However, if you take some time to study all weather racing, there are opportunities to gain an edge and hence make some money

 








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