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Trainers in October - Flat


 

By the time October comes along many punters are starting to slow down their betting on the flat. Big fields in the Autumn coupled with mixed weather puts many punters off having a bet. However, there are opportunities for backers and layers out there. This article concentrates on the trainers to follow, and the trainers to avoid in October. The data is taken from the last 10 years (1997 to 2006).

 

Firstly a look at trainers with a strike rate of better than 14% in October. A minimum of 5 wins was required to make the list.

 

Trainer

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Saeed Bin Suroor

63

281

22.4%

-£18.95

-6.7%

E McMahon

5

25

20.%

+£7.50

+30.%

M Tregoning

43

217

19.8%

-£8.26

-3.8%

Sir M Stoute

90

543

16.6%

-£41.13

-7.6%

J Gosden

85

526

16.2%

+£25.21

+4.8%

P Chapple-Hyam

22

139

15.8%

+£45.99

+33.1%

R Charlton

39

254

15.4%

-£21.83

-8.6%

H Cecil

41

269

15.2%

-£109.03

-40.5%

Miss B Sanders

5

33

15.2%

+£4.50

+13.6%

J Noseda

25

172

14.5%

+£34.15

+19.9%

C Egerton

5

35

14.3%

-£0.25

-0.7%

 

John Gosden, Jeremy Noseda and Peter Chapple-Hyam have all made profits from a good number of runners and hence they are worth further investigation. Also Marcus Tregoning and Saeed Bin Suroor have only made small losses and are also worth further scrutiny. From a negative perspective, Henry Cecil has made a significant loss of over 4% despite a decent looking strike rate. Clearly the majority of his winners have been short prices. Let us look at Gosden, Noseda, Chapple-Hyam, Tregoning and Bin Suroor in more detail.

 

John Gosden – the tables for all 5 trainers concentrate on positive / profitable areas:

 

Variable

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Course - Newmarket

24

142

16.9%

+£36.61

+25.8%

Course - Redcar

8

30

26.7%

+£28.54

+95.1%

Favourite

35

88

39.8%

+£12.80

+14.5%

Conditions races

9

24

37.5%

+£16.66

+69.4%

57+ days off track

12

64

18.8%

+£21.08

+32.9%

Owner - Mr K Abdulla

11

61

18.%

+£12.75

+20.9%

 

Jeremy Noseda

 

Variable

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Northern courses

8

34

23.5%

+£50.00

+147.1%

Up in distance

11

51

21.6%

+£60.44

+118.5%

Price - 10/1 to 18/1

5

36

13.9%

+£34.00

+94.4%

Distance - 1 mile to 1m 2f

13

68

19.1%

+£56.77

+83.5%

 

Peter Chapple-Hyam

 

Variable

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Course - Newbury

5

17

29.4%

+£29.07

+171.%

Group Races

5

16

31.2%

+£29.50

+184.4%

Up in class

9

35

25.7%

+£88.07

+251.6%

Up in distance

9

42

21.4%

+£12.63

+30.1%

 

Marcus Tregoning

 

Variable

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Course - Leicester

6

16

37.5%

+£11.99

+74.9%

Group & Listed Races

11

38

28.9%

+£32.11

+84.5%

Up in class

11

49

22.4%

+£25.54

+52.1%

Distance - 5f to 7f

18

85

21.2%

+£38.49

+45.3%

Favourite / 2nd favourite

32

83

38.6%

+£18.74

+22.6%

10 or less runners

26

68

38.2%

+£22.61

+33.2%

29 or more days off track

14

64

21.9%

+£28.62

+44.7%

Position LTO 2nd

11

26

42.3%

+£34.73

+133.6%

 

Saeed Bin Suroor

 

Variable

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Course - Doncaster

8

23

34.8%

+£15.38

+66.9%

Maiden races

33

113

29.2%

+£16.85

+14.9%

Fillies

23

63

36.5%

+£25.08

+39.8%

Class 4 & 5

40

130

30.8%

+£29.53

+22.7%

 

There are plenty of positive angles for those five trainers and areas where you should be able to profit this October.

 

Of course with the advent of the exchanges, in recent years punters have been able to try and take the option of laying as well as backing. Although most of my articles focus on the positives, it is important to take negative factors into account also. This is the best way to avoid poor value bets and also gives you the opportunity to “lay” if you prefer.

 

The following table gives a list of trainers who not only perform poorly in October, but under-perform compared with their overall records. I have added a column to show the trainer’s overall strike rate in all months to illustrate the extent of the below par monthly performance.

 

Trainer

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate

Overall SR

Profit

ROI

G Wragg

16

229

7.0%

(12.3%)

-£126.04

-55.0%

K Burke

21

305

6.9%

(9.5%)

-£135.25

-44.3%

T Mills

7

102

6.9%

(11.2%)

-£26.00

-25.5%

I Semple

11

161

6.8%

(9.5%)

-£61.17

-38.0%

A Balding

8

126

6.3%

(8.5%)

-£44.00

-34.9%

K Ryan

13

206

6.3%

(10.0%)

-£53.00

-25.7%

J Hills

16

263

6.1%

(8.1%)

-£113.50

-43.2%

W Swinburn

3

50

6.0%

(9.5%)

-£28.75

-57.5%

M Tompkins

22

379

5.8%

(9.3%)

-£145.17

-38.3%

C Cox

6

104

5.8%

(9.2%)

-£47.50

-45.7%

S Williams

8

157

5.1%

(9.2%)

-£122.50

-78.0%

J Goldie

11

244

4.5%

(7.9%)

-£90.55

-37.1%

M Dods

7

157

4.5%

(8.7%)

-£27.50

-17.5%

W Muir

11

250

4.4%

(6.8%)

-£140.13

-56.1%

E Alston

10

237

4.2%

(7.7%)

-£136.67

-57.7%

D Arbuthnot

6

146

4.1%

(7.0%)

-£84.17

-57.7%

W Brisbourne

8

196

4.1%

(8.0%)

-£40.00

-20.4%

R Hollinshead

8

259

3.1%

(4.8%)

-£148.00

-57.1%

A Newcombe

2

77

2.6%

(5.8%)

-£61.00

-79.2%

I Williams

1

46

2.2%

(7.0%)

-£39.00

-84.8%

J Boyle

1

57

1.8%

(8.3%)

-£53.50

-93.9%

J Poulton

1

68

1.5%

(6.5%)

-£62.00

-91.2%

J Best

1

81

1.2%

(9.0%)

-£69.00

-85.2%

M Brittain

1

92

1.1%

(4.5%)

-£77.00

-83.7%

 

Hopefully if you were one of those punters who tend to give October a swerve from a betting point of view, I hope this article may have made you re-think!

 








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