By the time October comes along many punters are starting to slow down their betting on the flat. Big fields in the Autumn coupled with mixed weather puts many punters off having a bet. However, there are opportunities for backers and layers out there. This article concentrates on the trainers to follow, and the trainers to avoid in October. The data is taken from the last 10 years (1997 to 2006).
Firstly a look at trainers with a strike rate of better than 14% in October. A minimum of 5 wins was required to make the list.
|
Trainer
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Saeed Bin Suroor
|
63
|
281
|
22.4%
|
-£18.95
|
-6.7%
|
|
E McMahon
|
5
|
25
|
20.%
|
+£7.50
|
+30.%
|
|
M Tregoning
|
43
|
217
|
19.8%
|
-£8.26
|
-3.8%
|
|
Sir M Stoute
|
90
|
543
|
16.6%
|
-£41.13
|
-7.6%
|
|
J Gosden
|
85
|
526
|
16.2%
|
+£25.21
|
+4.8%
|
|
P Chapple-Hyam
|
22
|
139
|
15.8%
|
+£45.99
|
+33.1%
|
|
R Charlton
|
39
|
254
|
15.4%
|
-£21.83
|
-8.6%
|
|
H Cecil
|
41
|
269
|
15.2%
|
-£109.03
|
-40.5%
|
|
Miss B Sanders
|
5
|
33
|
15.2%
|
+£4.50
|
+13.6%
|
|
J Noseda
|
25
|
172
|
14.5%
|
+£34.15
|
+19.9%
|
|
C Egerton
|
5
|
35
|
14.3%
|
-£0.25
|
-0.7%
|
John Gosden, Jeremy Noseda and Peter Chapple-Hyam have all made profits from a good number of runners and hence they are worth further investigation. Also Marcus Tregoning and Saeed Bin Suroor have only made small losses and are also worth further scrutiny. From a negative perspective, Henry Cecil has made a significant loss of over 4% despite a decent looking strike rate. Clearly the majority of his winners have been short prices. Let us look at Gosden, Noseda, Chapple-Hyam, Tregoning and Bin Suroor in more detail.
John Gosden – the tables for all 5 trainers concentrate on positive / profitable areas:
|
Variable
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Course - Newmarket
|
24
|
142
|
16.9%
|
+£36.61
|
+25.8%
|
|
Course - Redcar
|
8
|
30
|
26.7%
|
+£28.54
|
+95.1%
|
|
Favourite
|
35
|
88
|
39.8%
|
+£12.80
|
+14.5%
|
|
Conditions races
|
9
|
24
|
37.5%
|
+£16.66
|
+69.4%
|
|
57+ days off track
|
12
|
64
|
18.8%
|
+£21.08
|
+32.9%
|
|
Owner - Mr K Abdulla
|
11
|
61
|
18.%
|
+£12.75
|
+20.9%
|
Jeremy Noseda
|
Variable
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Northern courses
|
8
|
34
|
23.5%
|
+£50.00
|
+147.1%
|
|
Up in distance
|
11
|
51
|
21.6%
|
+£60.44
|
+118.5%
|
|
Price - 10/1 to 18/1
|
5
|
36
|
13.9%
|
+£34.00
|
+94.4%
|
|
Distance - 1 mile to 1m 2f
|
13
|
68
|
19.1%
|
+£56.77
|
+83.5%
|
Peter Chapple-Hyam
|
Variable
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Course - Newbury
|
5
|
17
|
29.4%
|
+£29.07
|
+171.%
|
|
Group Races
|
5
|
16
|
31.2%
|
+£29.50
|
+184.4%
|
|
Up in class
|
9
|
35
|
25.7%
|
+£88.07
|
+251.6%
|
|
Up in distance
|
9
|
42
|
21.4%
|
+£12.63
|
+30.1%
|
Marcus Tregoning
|
Variable
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Course - Leicester
|
6
|
16
|
37.5%
|
+£11.99
|
+74.9%
|
|
Group & Listed Races
|
11
|
38
|
28.9%
|
+£32.11
|
+84.5%
|
|
Up in class
|
11
|
49
|
22.4%
|
+£25.54
|
+52.1%
|
|
Distance - 5f to 7f
|
18
|
85
|
21.2%
|
+£38.49
|
+45.3%
|
|
Favourite / 2nd favourite
|
32
|
83
|
38.6%
|
+£18.74
|
+22.6%
|
|
10 or less runners
|
26
|
68
|
38.2%
|
+£22.61
|
+33.2%
|
|
29 or more days off track
|
14
|
64
|
21.9%
|
+£28.62
|
+44.7%
|
|
Position LTO 2nd
|
11
|
26
|
42.3%
|
+£34.73
|
+133.6%
|
Saeed Bin Suroor
|
Variable
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
Course - Doncaster
|
8
|
23
|
34.8%
|
+£15.38
|
+66.9%
|
|
Maiden races
|
33
|
113
|
29.2%
|
+£16.85
|
+14.9%
|
|
Fillies
|
23
|
63
|
36.5%
|
+£25.08
|
+39.8%
|
|
Class 4 & 5
|
40
|
130
|
30.8%
|
+£29.53
|
+22.7%
|
There are plenty of positive angles for those five trainers and areas where you should be able to profit this October.
Of course with the advent of the exchanges, in recent years punters have been able to try and take the option of laying as well as backing. Although most of my articles focus on the positives, it is important to take negative factors into account also. This is the best way to avoid poor value bets and also gives you the opportunity to “lay” if you prefer.
The following table gives a list of trainers who not only perform poorly in October, but under-perform compared with their overall records. I have added a column to show the trainer’s overall strike rate in all months to illustrate the extent of the below par monthly performance.
|
Trainer
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate
|
Overall SR
|
Profit
|
ROI
|
|
G Wragg
|
16
|
229
|
7.0%
|
(12.3%)
|
-£126.04
|
-55.0%
|
|
K Burke
|
21
|
305
|
6.9%
|
(9.5%)
|
-£135.25
|
-44.3%
|
|
T Mills
|
7
|
102
|
6.9%
|
(11.2%)
|
-£26.00
|
-25.5%
|
|
I Semple
|
11
|
161
|
6.8%
|
(9.5%)
|
-£61.17
|
-38.0%
|
|
A Balding
|
8
|
126
|
6.3%
|
(8.5%)
|
-£44.00
|
-34.9%
|
|
K Ryan
|
13
|
206
|
6.3%
|
(10.0%)
|
-£53.00
|
-25.7%
|
|
J Hills
|
16
|
263
|
6.1%
|
(8.1%)
|
-£113.50
|
-43.2%
|
|
W Swinburn
|
3
|
50
|
6.0%
|
(9.5%)
|
-£28.75
|
-57.5%
|
|
M Tompkins
|
22
|
379
|
5.8%
|
(9.3%)
|
-£145.17
|
-38.3%
|
|
C Cox
|
6
|
104
|
5.8%
|
(9.2%)
|
-£47.50
|
-45.7%
|
|
S Williams
|
8
|
157
|
5.1%
|
(9.2%)
|
-£122.50
|
-78.0%
|
|
J Goldie
|
11
|
244
|
4.5%
|
(7.9%)
|
-£90.55
|
-37.1%
|
|
M Dods
|
7
|
157
|
4.5%
|
(8.7%)
|
-£27.50
|
-17.5%
|
|
W Muir
|
11
|
250
|
4.4%
|
(6.8%)
|
-£140.13
|
-56.1%
|
|
E Alston
|
10
|
237
|
4.2%
|
(7.7%)
|
-£136.67
|
-57.7%
|
|
D Arbuthnot
|
6
|
146
|
4.1%
|
(7.0%)
|
-£84.17
|
-57.7%
|
|
W Brisbourne
|
8
|
196
|
4.1%
|
(8.0%)
|
-£40.00
|
-20.4%
|
|
R Hollinshead
|
8
|
259
|
3.1%
|
(4.8%)
|
-£148.00
|
-57.1%
|
|
A Newcombe
|
2
|
77
|
2.6%
|
(5.8%)
|
-£61.00
|
-79.2%
|
|
I Williams
|
1
|
46
|
2.2%
|
(7.0%)
|
-£39.00
|
-84.8%
|
|
J Boyle
|
1
|
57
|
1.8%
|
(8.3%)
|
-£53.50
|
-93.9%
|
|
J Poulton
|
1
|
68
|
1.5%
|
(6.5%)
|
-£62.00
|
-91.2%
|
|
J Best
|
1
|
81
|
1.2%
|
(9.0%)
|
-£69.00
|
-85.2%
|
|
M Brittain
|
1
|
92
|
1.1%
|
(4.5%)
|
-£77.00
|
-83.7%
|
Hopefully if you were one of those punters who tend to give October a swerve from a betting point of view, I hope this article may have made you re-think!
