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Trainers In October


 

October Trainers by David Renham

 

This week I am going to look at flat trainer records in October. The data is taken from 2000 to 2008 with profits/losses calculated to £1 level stakes. Usually when I look at trainer records, I focus solely on performance (eg. Strike rate; profits/losses; return on investment). These are important, however, it is also important to look deeper when you can and this is what I have tried to do for this piece. I have not only looked at trainer records in October, I have taken each trainer’s overall strike rate in all months as a comparison.  Hence, I have included two extra columns – the overall strike rate; and then in the final column I have divided the trainer’s October strike rate by the their overall strike rate. This gives you a quick way of determining how well a trainer performs in October compared with his overall performance. A figure of 1.0 would mean that the trainer performs exactly the same in terms of strike rate; lower figures than 1.0 indicate below average performance; figures above 1.0 indicate above average performance. I have included trainers that have had at least 10 wins in October and the trainers with the poorest figures are at the top.

 

Trainer

Bets

Wins

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Overall SR (%)

Oct SR / OSR

Sir M Prescott

350

40

11.4

-£145.88

-41.7

22.4

0.51

P Makin

194

13

6.7

-£96.79

-49.9

12.1

0.55

M Dods

219

11

5

-£69.50

-31.7

9.1

0.55

M Easterby

342

14

4.1

-£177.25

-51.8

7.4

0.55

K R Burke

400

24

6

-£179.00

-44.8

10.3

0.58

J Goldie

258

12

4.7

-£120.05

-46.5

7.9

0.59

R Hannon

1088

78

7.2

-£501.12

-46.1

11.6

0.62

A Carroll

237

10

4.2

-£144.00

-60.8

6.7

0.63

J Fanshawe

350

34

9.7

-£115.42

-33

15

0.65

T Barron

285

23

8.1

+£9.10

+3.2

12.4

0.65

J Dunlop

630

57

9

-£283.56

-45

13.5

0.67

W Brisbourne

320

18

5.6

-£66.50

-20.8

8.3

0.67

C Wall

221

19

8.6

-£58.30

-26.4

12.7

0.68

W Swinburn

169

12

7.1

-£85.00

-50.3

10.5

0.68

S Williams

180

12

6.7

-£114.92

-63.8

9.9

0.68

J Hills

312

17

5.4

-£191.40

-61.3

8

0.68

G Butler

319

30

9.4

-£109.67

-34.4

13.7

0.69

L Cumani

320

35

10.9

-£72.92

-22.8

15.2

0.72

I Semple

221

18

8.1

-£22.67

-10.3

11.1

0.73

M Tompkins

409

28

6.8

-£110.92

-27.1

9.3

0.73

W Musson

183

11

6

-£93.30

-51

8.2

0.73

E Alston

225

13

5.8

-£150.69

-67

7.9

0.73

A Berry

479

19

4

-£296.37

-61.9

5.5

0.73

M Bell

323

31

9.6

-£97.08

-30.1

12.9

0.74

J Spearing

134

10

7.5

-£33.92

-25.3

10.2

0.74

R Guest

204

15

7.4

+£21.80

+10.7

10

0.74

M Johnston

842

100

11.9

-£171.34

-20.3

15.9

0.75

D Elsworth

335

28

8.4

-£14.25

-4.3

11

0.76

J Given

320

21

6.6

-£72.50

-22.7

8.7

0.76

R Fahey

501

41

8.2

-£148.26

-29.6

10.7

0.77

W Muir

332

20

6

-£117.22

-35.3

7.7

0.78

H Morrison

378

37

9.8

-£75.13

-19.9

12.4

0.79

K Ryan

416

37

8.9

-£73.54

-17.7

11.2

0.79

D Nicholls

242

18

7.4

-£122.37

-50.6

9.4

0.79

G L Moore

341

31

9.1

-£94.10

-27.6

11.2

0.81

M Jarvis

437

63

14.4

-£34.44

-7.9

17.6

0.82

A Balding

249

21

8.4

-£70.12

-28.2

10.3

0.82

P Evans

390

27

6.9

-£68.67

-17.6

8.4

0.82

Sir M Stoute

549

97

17.7

-£23.35

-4.3

21.2

0.83

B Hills

776

87

11.2

-£121.32

-15.6

13.5

0.83

J Osborne

267

24

9

-£17.25

-6.5

10.9

0.83

W Haggas

393

55

14

+£23.73

+6

16.7

0.84

Mrs A Perrett

508

52

10.2

-£139.84

-27.5

12

0.85

J Noseda

245

41

16.7

+£52.79

+21.5

19.5

0.86

R Whitaker

174

12

6.9

-£11.17

-6.4

8

0.86

R Hollinshead

266

17

6.4

-£108.75

-40.9

7.4

0.86

Miss L Perratt

205

10

4.9

-£59.00

-28.8

5.7

0.86

P Howling

168

10

6

-£81.25

-48.4

6.9

0.87

N Littmoden

334

26

7.8

-£65.25

-19.5

8.9

0.88

B Millman

246

19

7.7

-£59.13

-24

8.8

0.88

H Cecil

241

39

16.2

-£68.06

-28.2

18.2

0.89

R Beckett

229

22

9.6

+£17.30

+7.6

10.8

0.89

P Blockley

148

13

8.8

+£41.08

+27.8

9.9

0.89

J Akehurst

181

13

7.2

-£73.25

-40.5

8.1

0.89

E Dunlop

428

48

11.2

-£27.09

-6.3

12.5

0.9

S Kirk

336

28

8.3

-£112.32

-33.4

9.2

0.9

J Bradley

381

20

5.2

-£127.50

-33.5

5.8

0.9

J Gosden

544

91

16.7

+£3.70

+0.7

18.2

0.91

P Chapple-Hyam

177

24

13.6

+£36.42

+20.6

14.9

0.91

J Jenkins

164

10

6.1

-£59.50

-36.3

6.7

0.91

P Cole

360

42

11.7

-£92.56

-25.7

12.4

0.94

R Charlton

283

44

15.5

-£37.52

-13.3

16.3

0.95

B Meehan

553

60

10.8

-£6.16

-1.1

11.2

0.96

M Channon

957

99

10.3

-£164.80

-17.2

10.7

0.96

I Wood

252

19

7.5

-£41.00

-16.3

7.8

0.96

H Candy

174

21

12.1

-£48.94

-28.1

12.4

0.98

E O'Neill

111

12

10.8

+£28.58

+25.7

11

0.98

J Quinn

230

20

8.7

-£62.02

-27

8.8

0.99

J Toller

154

14

9.1

-£30.50

-19.8

9.1

1

A Jarvis

182

15

8.2

-£14.37

-7.9

8.2

1

S Bin Suroor

406

94

23.2

-£11.02

-2.7

23

1.01

C Brittain

335

29

8.7

-£10.27

-3.1

8.4

1.04

M Tregoning

256

47

18.4

-£10.26

-4

17.5

1.05

T Easterby

480

42

8.8

-£45.33

-9.4

8.4

1.05

J Moore

215

18

8.4

-£57.67

-26.8

8

1.05

E Vaughan

89

11

12.4

-£32.12

-36.1

11.5

1.08

P D'arcy

113

13

11.5

+£48.09

+42.6

10.6

1.08

C Cox

182

19

10.4

-£27.00

-14.8

9.5

1.09

D Arbuthnot

150

13

8.7

-£51.31

-34.2

7.9

1.1

J Pearce

168

16

9.5

-£50.65

-30.1

8.4

1.13

B Smart

362

41

11.3

-£22.97

-6.3

9.9

1.14

G Margarson

179

15

8.4

+£85.45

+47.7

7.4

1.14

T Tate

74

11

14.9

+£18.73

+25.3

12

1.24

J Eustace

150

16

10.7

+£34.00

+22.7

8.6

1.24

Mrs G Rees

134

11

8.2

-£16.75

-12.5

6.4

1.28

A Bailey

131

12

9.2

-£34.50

-26.3

7

1.31

E McMahon

82

13

15.9

+£39.25

+47.9

11.9

1.34

A McCabe

102

13

12.7

+£1.50

+1.5

8.9

1.43

A Turnell

80

11

13.8

+£19.75

+24.7

9

1.53

J Jay

75

10

13.3

+£25.38

+33.8

8.5

1.56

 

From a punting perspective, I would not be wanting to be backing too many runners from trainers whose Oct SR/Overall SR figure is below 0.7. Hence top trainers such Sir Mark Prescott, Richard Hannon, John Dunlop and James Fanshawe are ones that I will be swerving this month. On a more positive note, trainers with figures above 1.3 are probably worth keeping on the right side of.

 

Finally, for those of you who find the data in this article useful, I suggest you print the table off and have it nearby as a ‘ready reckoner’. It should help you steer clear of some poor value bets, while pointing in the right direction for value bets.

 

NB Spreadsheet Data Download associated with this article may be obtained at the link below.

http://www.punterprofits.com/profit/index.php?showtopic=10113

 








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