This week I am going to look at flat trainer records in October. The data is taken from 2000 to 2008 with profits/losses calculated to £1 level stakes. Usually when I look at trainer records, I focus solely on performance (eg. Strike rate; profits/losses; return on investment). These are important, however, it is also important to look deeper when you can and this is what I have tried to do for this piece. I have not only looked at trainer records in October, I have taken each trainer’s overall strike rate in all months as a comparison. Hence, I have included two extra columns – the overall strike rate; and then in the final column I have divided the trainer’s October strike rate by the their overall strike rate. This gives you a quick way of determining how well a trainer performs in October compared with his overall performance. A figure of 1.0 would mean that the trainer performs exactly the same in terms of strike rate; lower figures than 1.0 indicate below average performance; figures above 1.0 indicate above average performance. I have included trainers that have had at least 10 wins in October and the trainers with the poorest figures are at the top.
Trainer
Bets
Wins
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Overall SR (%)
Oct SR / OSR
Sir M Prescott
350
40
11.4
-£145.88
-41.7
22.4
0.51
P Makin
194
13
6.7
-£96.79
-49.9
12.1
0.55
M Dods
219
11
5
-£69.50
-31.7
9.1
0.55
M Easterby
342
14
4.1
-£177.25
-51.8
7.4
0.55
K R Burke
400
24
6
-£179.00
-44.8
10.3
0.58
J Goldie
258
12
4.7
-£120.05
-46.5
7.9
0.59
R Hannon
1088
78
7.2
-£501.12
-46.1
11.6
0.62
A Carroll
237
10
4.2
-£144.00
-60.8
6.7
0.63
J Fanshawe
350
34
9.7
-£115.42
-33
15
0.65
T Barron
285
23
8.1
+£9.10
+3.2
12.4
0.65
J Dunlop
630
57
9
-£283.56
-45
13.5
0.67
W Brisbourne
320
18
5.6
-£66.50
-20.8
8.3
0.67
C Wall
221
19
8.6
-£58.30
-26.4
12.7
0.68
W Swinburn
169
12
7.1
-£85.00
-50.3
10.5
0.68
S Williams
180
12
6.7
-£114.92
-63.8
9.9
0.68
J Hills
312
17
5.4
-£191.40
-61.3
8
0.68
G Butler
319
30
9.4
-£109.67
-34.4
13.7
0.69
L Cumani
320
35
10.9
-£72.92
-22.8
15.2
0.72
I Semple
221
18
8.1
-£22.67
-10.3
11.1
0.73
M Tompkins
409
28
6.8
-£110.92
-27.1
9.3
0.73
W Musson
183
11
6
-£93.30
-51
8.2
0.73
E Alston
225
13
5.8
-£150.69
-67
7.9
0.73
A Berry
479
19
4
-£296.37
-61.9
5.5
0.73
M Bell
323
31
9.6
-£97.08
-30.1
12.9
0.74
J Spearing
134
10
7.5
-£33.92
-25.3
10.2
0.74
R Guest
204
15
7.4
+£21.80
+10.7
10
0.74
M Johnston
842
100
11.9
-£171.34
-20.3
15.9
0.75
D Elsworth
335
28
8.4
-£14.25
-4.3
11
0.76
J Given
320
21
6.6
-£72.50
-22.7
8.7
0.76
R Fahey
501
41
8.2
-£148.26
-29.6
10.7
0.77
W Muir
332
20
6
-£117.22
-35.3
7.7
0.78
H Morrison
378
37
9.8
-£75.13
-19.9
12.4
0.79
K Ryan
416
37
8.9
-£73.54
-17.7
11.2
0.79
D Nicholls
242
18
7.4
-£122.37
-50.6
9.4
0.79
G L Moore
341
31
9.1
-£94.10
-27.6
11.2
0.81
M Jarvis
437
63
14.4
-£34.44
-7.9
17.6
0.82
A Balding
249
21
8.4
-£70.12
-28.2
10.3
0.82
P Evans
390
27
6.9
-£68.67
-17.6
8.4
0.82
Sir M Stoute
549
97
17.7
-£23.35
-4.3
21.2
0.83
B Hills
776
87
11.2
-£121.32
-15.6
13.5
0.83
J Osborne
267
24
9
-£17.25
-6.5
10.9
0.83
W Haggas
393
55
14
+£23.73
+6
16.7
0.84
Mrs A Perrett
508
52
10.2
-£139.84
-27.5
12
0.85
J Noseda
245
41
16.7
+£52.79
+21.5
19.5
0.86
R Whitaker
174
12
6.9
-£11.17
-6.4
8
0.86
R Hollinshead
266
17
6.4
-£108.75
-40.9
7.4
0.86
Miss L Perratt
205
10
4.9
-£59.00
-28.8
5.7
0.86
P Howling
168
10
6
-£81.25
-48.4
6.9
0.87
N Littmoden
334
26
7.8
-£65.25
-19.5
8.9
0.88
B Millman
246
19
7.7
-£59.13
-24
8.8
0.88
H Cecil
241
39
16.2
-£68.06
-28.2
18.2
0.89
R Beckett
229
22
9.6
+£17.30
+7.6
10.8
0.89
P Blockley
148
13
8.8
+£41.08
+27.8
9.9
0.89
J Akehurst
181
13
7.2
-£73.25
-40.5
8.1
0.89
E Dunlop
428
48
11.2
-£27.09
-6.3
12.5
0.9
S Kirk
336
28
8.3
-£112.32
-33.4
9.2
0.9
J Bradley
381
20
5.2
-£127.50
-33.5
5.8
0.9
J Gosden
544
91
16.7
+£3.70
+0.7
18.2
0.91
P Chapple-Hyam
177
24
13.6
+£36.42
+20.6
14.9
0.91
J Jenkins
164
10
6.1
-£59.50
-36.3
6.7
0.91
P Cole
360
42
11.7
-£92.56
-25.7
12.4
0.94
R Charlton
283
44
15.5
-£37.52
-13.3
16.3
0.95
B Meehan
553
60
10.8
-£6.16
-1.1
11.2
0.96
M Channon
957
99
10.3
-£164.80
-17.2
10.7
0.96
I Wood
252
19
7.5
-£41.00
-16.3
7.8
0.96
H Candy
174
21
12.1
-£48.94
-28.1
12.4
0.98
E O'Neill
111
12
10.8
+£28.58
+25.7
11
0.98
J Quinn
230
20
8.7
-£62.02
-27
8.8
0.99
J Toller
154
14
9.1
-£30.50
-19.8
9.1
1
A Jarvis
182
15
8.2
-£14.37
-7.9
8.2
1
S Bin Suroor
406
94
23.2
-£11.02
-2.7
23
1.01
C Brittain
335
29
8.7
-£10.27
-3.1
8.4
1.04
M Tregoning
256
47
18.4
-£10.26
-4
17.5
1.05
T Easterby
480
42
8.8
-£45.33
-9.4
8.4
1.05
J Moore
215
18
8.4
-£57.67
-26.8
8
1.05
E Vaughan
89
11
12.4
-£32.12
-36.1
11.5
1.08
P D'arcy
113
13
11.5
+£48.09
+42.6
10.6
1.08
C Cox
182
19
10.4
-£27.00
-14.8
9.5
1.09
D Arbuthnot
150
13
8.7
-£51.31
-34.2
7.9
1.1
J Pearce
168
16
9.5
-£50.65
-30.1
8.4
1.13
B Smart
362
41
11.3
-£22.97
-6.3
9.9
1.14
G Margarson
179
15
8.4
+£85.45
+47.7
7.4
1.14
T Tate
74
11
14.9
+£18.73
+25.3
12
1.24
J Eustace
150
16
10.7
+£34.00
+22.7
8.6
1.24
Mrs G Rees
134
11
8.2
-£16.75
-12.5
6.4
1.28
A Bailey
131
12
9.2
-£34.50
-26.3
7
1.31
E McMahon
82
13
15.9
+£39.25
+47.9
11.9
1.34
A McCabe
102
13
12.7
+£1.50
+1.5
8.9
1.43
A Turnell
80
11
13.8
+£19.75
+24.7
9
1.53
J Jay
75
10
13.3
+£25.38
+33.8
8.5
1.56
From a punting perspective, I would not be wanting to be backing too many runners from trainers whose Oct SR/Overall SR figure is below 0.7. Hence top trainers such Sir Mark Prescott, Richard Hannon, John Dunlop and James Fanshawe are ones that I will be swerving this month. On a more positive note, trainers with figures above 1.3 are probably worth keeping on the right side of.
Finally, for those of you who find the data in this article useful, I suggest you print the table off and have it nearby as a ‘ready reckoner’. It should help you steer clear of some poor value bets, while pointing in the right direction for value bets.
NB Spreadsheet Data Download associated with this article may be obtained at the link below.
