October Trainers by David Renham
This week I am going to look at flat trainer records in October. The data is taken from 2000 to 2008 with profits/losses calculated to £1 level stakes. Usually when I look at trainer records, I focus solely on performance (eg. Strike rate; profits/losses; return on investment). These are important, however, it is also important to look deeper when you can and this is what I have tried to do for this piece. I have not only looked at trainer records in October, I have taken each trainer’s overall strike rate in all months as a comparison. Hence, I have included two extra columns – the overall strike rate; and then in the final column I have divided the trainer’s October strike rate by the their overall strike rate. This gives you a quick way of determining how well a trainer performs in October compared with his overall performance. A figure of 1.0 would mean that the trainer performs exactly the same in terms of strike rate; lower figures than 1.0 indicate below average performance; figures above 1.0 indicate above average performance. I have included trainers that have had at least 10 wins in October and the trainers with the poorest figures are at the top.
|
Trainer
|
Bets
|
Wins
|
Strike Rate (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
Overall SR (%)
|
Oct SR / OSR
|
|
Sir M Prescott
|
350
|
40
|
11.4
|
-£145.88
|
-41.7
|
22.4
|
0.51
|
|
P Makin
|
194
|
13
|
6.7
|
-£96.79
|
-49.9
|
12.1
|
0.55
|
|
M Dods
|
219
|
11
|
5
|
-£69.50
|
-31.7
|
9.1
|
0.55
|
|
M Easterby
|
342
|
14
|
4.1
|
-£177.25
|
-51.8
|
7.4
|
0.55
|
|
K R Burke
|
400
|
24
|
6
|
-£179.00
|
-44.8
|
10.3
|
0.58
|
|
J Goldie
|
258
|
12
|
4.7
|
-£120.05
|
-46.5
|
7.9
|
0.59
|
|
R Hannon
|
1088
|
78
|
7.2
|
-£501.12
|
-46.1
|
11.6
|
0.62
|
|
A Carroll
|
237
|
10
|
4.2
|
-£144.00
|
-60.8
|
6.7
|
0.63
|
|
J Fanshawe
|
350
|
34
|
9.7
|
-£115.42
|
-33
|
15
|
0.65
|
|
T Barron
|
285
|
23
|
8.1
|
+£9.10
|
+3.2
|
12.4
|
0.65
|
|
J Dunlop
|
630
|
57
|
9
|
-£283.56
|
-45
|
13.5
|
0.67
|
|
W Brisbourne
|
320
|
18
|
5.6
|
-£66.50
|
-20.8
|
8.3
|
0.67
|
|
C Wall
|
221
|
19
|
8.6
|
-£58.30
|
-26.4
|
12.7
|
0.68
|
|
W Swinburn
|
169
|
12
|
7.1
|
-£85.00
|
-50.3
|
10.5
|
0.68
|
|
S Williams
|
180
|
12
|
6.7
|
-£114.92
|
-63.8
|
9.9
|
0.68
|
|
J Hills
|
312
|
17
|
5.4
|
-£191.40
|
-61.3
|
8
|
0.68
|
|
G Butler
|
319
|
30
|
9.4
|
-£109.67
|
-34.4
|
13.7
|
0.69
|
|
L Cumani
|
320
|
35
|
10.9
|
-£72.92
|
-22.8
|
15.2
|
0.72
|
|
I Semple
|
221
|
18
|
8.1
|
-£22.67
|
-10.3
|
11.1
|
0.73
|
|
M Tompkins
|
409
|
28
|
6.8
|
-£110.92
|
-27.1
|
9.3
|
0.73
|
|
W Musson
|
183
|
11
|
6
|
-£93.30
|
-51
|
8.2
|
0.73
|
|
E Alston
|
225
|
13
|
5.8
|
-£150.69
|
-67
|
7.9
|
0.73
|
|
A Berry
|
479
|
19
|
4
|
-£296.37
|
-61.9
|
5.5
|
0.73
|
|
M Bell
|
323
|
31
|
9.6
|
-£97.08
|
-30.1
|
12.9
|
0.74
|
|
J Spearing
|
134
|
10
|
7.5
|
-£33.92
|
-25.3
|
10.2
|
0.74
|
|
R Guest
|
204
|
15
|
7.4
|
+£21.80
|
+10.7
|
10
|
0.74
|
|
M Johnston
|
842
|
100
|
11.9
|
-£171.34
|
-20.3
|
15.9
|
0.75
|
|
D Elsworth
|
335
|
28
|
8.4
|
-£14.25
|
-4.3
|
11
|
0.76
|
|
J Given
|
320
|
21
|
6.6
|
-£72.50
|
-22.7
|
8.7
|
0.76
|
|
R Fahey
|
501
|
41
|
8.2
|
-£148.26
|
-29.6
|
10.7
|
0.77
|
|
W Muir
|
332
|
20
|
6
|
-£117.22
|
-35.3
|
7.7
|
0.78
|
|
H Morrison
|
378
|
37
|
9.8
|
-£75.13
|
-19.9
|
12.4
|
0.79
|
|
K Ryan
|
416
|
37
|
8.9
|
-£73.54
|
-17.7
|
11.2
|
0.79
|
|
D Nicholls
|
242
|
18
|
7.4
|
-£122.37
|
-50.6
|
9.4
|
0.79
|
|
G L Moore
|
341
|
31
|
9.1
|
-£94.10
|
-27.6
|
11.2
|
0.81
|
|
M Jarvis
|
437
|
63
|
14.4
|
-£34.44
|
-7.9
|
17.6
|
0.82
|
|
A Balding
|
249
|
21
|
8.4
|
-£70.12
|
-28.2
|
10.3
|
0.82
|
|
P Evans
|
390
|
27
|
6.9
|
-£68.67
|
-17.6
|
8.4
|
0.82
|
|
Sir M Stoute
|
549
|
97
|
17.7
|
-£23.35
|
-4.3
|
21.2
|
0.83
|
|
B Hills
|
776
|
87
|
11.2
|
-£121.32
|
-15.6
|
13.5
|
0.83
|
|
J Osborne
|
267
|
24
|
9
|
-£17.25
|
-6.5
|
10.9
|
0.83
|
|
W Haggas
|
393
|
55
|
14
|
+£23.73
|
+6
|
16.7
|
0.84
|
|
Mrs A Perrett
|
508
|
52
|
10.2
|
-£139.84
|
-27.5
|
12
|
0.85
|
|
J Noseda
|
245
|
41
|
16.7
|
+£52.79
|
+21.5
|
19.5
|
0.86
|
|
R Whitaker
|
174
|
12
|
6.9
|
-£11.17
|
-6.4
|
8
|
0.86
|
|
R Hollinshead
|
266
|
17
|
6.4
|
-£108.75
|
-40.9
|
7.4
|
0.86
|
|
Miss L Perratt
|
205
|
10
|
4.9
|
-£59.00
|
-28.8
|
5.7
|
0.86
|
|
P Howling
|
168
|
10
|
6
|
-£81.25
|
-48.4
|
6.9
|
0.87
|
|
N Littmoden
|
334
|
26
|
7.8
|
-£65.25
|
-19.5
|
8.9
|
0.88
|
|
B Millman
|
246
|
19
|
7.7
|
-£59.13
|
-24
|
8.8
|
0.88
|
|
H Cecil
|
241
|
39
|
16.2
|
-£68.06
|
-28.2
|
18.2
|
0.89
|
|
R Beckett
|
229
|
22
|
9.6
|
+£17.30
|
+7.6
|
10.8
|
0.89
|
|
P Blockley
|
148
|
13
|
8.8
|
+£41.08
|
+27.8
|
9.9
|
0.89
|
|
J Akehurst
|
181
|
13
|
7.2
|
-£73.25
|
-40.5
|
8.1
|
0.89
|
|
E Dunlop
|
428
|
48
|
11.2
|
-£27.09
|
-6.3
|
12.5
|
0.9
|
|
S Kirk
|
336
|
28
|
8.3
|
-£112.32
|
-33.4
|
9.2
|
0.9
|
|
J Bradley
|
381
|
20
|
5.2
|
-£127.50
|
-33.5
|
5.8
|
0.9
|
|
J Gosden
|
544
|
91
|
16.7
|
+£3.70
|
+0.7
|
18.2
|
0.91
|
|
P Chapple-Hyam
|
177
|
24
|
13.6
|
+£36.42
|
+20.6
|
14.9
|
0.91
|
|
J Jenkins
|
164
|
10
|
6.1
|
-£59.50
|
-36.3
|
6.7
|
0.91
|
|
P Cole
|
360
|
42
|
11.7
|
-£92.56
|
-25.7
|
12.4
|
0.94
|
|
R Charlton
|
283
|
44
|
15.5
|
-£37.52
|
-13.3
|
16.3
|
0.95
|
|
B Meehan
|
553
|
60
|
10.8
|
-£6.16
|
-1.1
|
11.2
|
0.96
|
|
M Channon
|
957
|
99
|
10.3
|
-£164.80
|
-17.2
|
10.7
|
0.96
|
|
I Wood
|
252
|
19
|
7.5
|
-£41.00
|
-16.3
|
7.8
|
0.96
|
|
H Candy
|
174
|
21
|
12.1
|
-£48.94
|
-28.1
|
12.4
|
0.98
|
|
E O'Neill
|
111
|
12
|
10.8
|
+£28.58
|
+25.7
|
11
|
0.98
|
|
J Quinn
|
230
|
20
|
8.7
|
-£62.02
|
-27
|
8.8
|
0.99
|
|
J Toller
|
154
|
14
|
9.1
|
-£30.50
|
-19.8
|
9.1
|
1
|
|
A Jarvis
|
182
|
15
|
8.2
|
-£14.37
|
-7.9
|
8.2
|
1
|
|
S Bin Suroor
|
406
|
94
|
23.2
|
-£11.02
|
-2.7
|
23
|
1.01
|
|
C Brittain
|
335
|
29
|
8.7
|
-£10.27
|
-3.1
|
8.4
|
1.04
|
|
M Tregoning
|
256
|
47
|
18.4
|
-£10.26
|
-4
|
17.5
|
1.05
|
|
T Easterby
|
480
|
42
|
8.8
|
-£45.33
|
-9.4
|
8.4
|
1.05
|
|
J Moore
|
215
|
18
|
8.4
|
-£57.67
|
-26.8
|
8
|
1.05
|
|
E Vaughan
|
89
|
11
|
12.4
|
-£32.12
|
-36.1
|
11.5
|
1.08
|
|
P D'arcy
|
113
|
13
|
11.5
|
+£48.09
|
+42.6
|
10.6
|
1.08
|
|
C Cox
|
182
|
19
|
10.4
|
-£27.00
|
-14.8
|
9.5
|
1.09
|
|
D Arbuthnot
|
150
|
13
|
8.7
|
-£51.31
|
-34.2
|
7.9
|
1.1
|
|
J Pearce
|
168
|
16
|
9.5
|
-£50.65
|
-30.1
|
8.4
|
1.13
|
|
B Smart
|
362
|
41
|
11.3
|
-£22.97
|
-6.3
|
9.9
|
1.14
|
|
G Margarson
|
179
|
15
|
8.4
|
+£85.45
|
+47.7
|
7.4
|
1.14
|
|
T Tate
|
74
|
11
|
14.9
|
+£18.73
|
+25.3
|
12
|
1.24
|
|
J Eustace
|
150
|
16
|
10.7
|
+£34.00
|
+22.7
|
8.6
|
1.24
|
|
Mrs G Rees
|
134
|
11
|
8.2
|
-£16.75
|
-12.5
|
6.4
|
1.28
|
|
A Bailey
|
131
|
12
|
9.2
|
-£34.50
|
-26.3
|
7
|
1.31
|
|
E McMahon
|
82
|
13
|
15.9
|
+£39.25
|
+47.9
|
11.9
|
1.34
|
|
A McCabe
|
102
|
13
|
12.7
|
+£1.50
|
+1.5
|
8.9
|
1.43
|
|
A Turnell
|
80
|
11
|
13.8
|
+£19.75
|
+24.7
|
9
|
1.53
|
|
J Jay
|
75
|
10
|
13.3
|
+£25.38
|
+33.8
|
8.5
|
1.56
|
From a punting perspective, I would not be wanting to be backing too many runners from trainers whose Oct SR/Overall SR figure is below 0.7. Hence top trainers such Sir Mark Prescott, Richard Hannon, John Dunlop and James Fanshawe are ones that I will be swerving this month. On a more positive note, trainers with figures above 1.3 are probably worth keeping on the right side of.
Finally, for those of you who find the data in this article useful, I suggest you print the table off and have it nearby as a ‘ready reckoner’. It should help you steer clear of some poor value bets, while pointing in the right direction for value bets.
NB Spreadsheet Data Download associated with this article may be obtained at the link below.
http://www.punterprofits.com/profit/index.php?showtopic=10113
