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Trainers in August and September


For this article I have collated some trainer stats going back to the year 2000 for turf flat racing (excluding all weather racing). The stats focus on trainer performance in August and September as we are only just over a week away from hitting August for another year. I have analysed three trainers in detail – the first being Mark Johnston:

 

Mark Johnston - 1987 saw the Johnston stable sent out their first runners and they managed just 6 winners from 122 runners in their first two seasons. Since then, they have had over 2000 winners on the turf and all weather in England, Scotland and Wales, with numerous wins all around the world. His record is similar in August and September as the table shows:

 

Month

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

August

154

936

16.5%

-£100.43

-10.7%

September

133

844

15.8%

-£110.31

-13.1%

 

A marginally better performance in August but statistically it is not significant.

 

There are some interesting course stats for the Johnston stable – some very good, some very poor. First the courses where he has excelled at this time of the year:

 

Course

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Carlisle

7

21

33.3%

+£42.00

+200.0%

Leicester

10

31

32.3%

+£44.88

+144.8%

Newbury

15

51

29.4%

+£21.68

+42.5%

Hamilton

31

110

28.2%

+£38.89

+35.4%

Epsom

9

33

27.3%

+£17.50

+53.0%

Sandown

10

38

26.3%

+£12.31

+32.4%

Newcastle

18

69

26.1%

+£24.97

+36.2%

Goodwood

24

146

16.4%

+£28.21

+19.3%

 

There are some impressive figures, with outstanding returns at Carlisle and Leicester in particular. For the record there are some other facts worth noting at two other courses; firstly at Hamilton - on good to firm ground Johnston’s record in August and September reads 17 wins from 46 (SR 37%) for a healthy profit of £56.56 (ROI +123%). Staying with Hamilton favourites have won 16 races from 24 (SR 66.7%) which is outstanding. Moving onto Goodwood his record at distances 1 mile to 1 mile 2f is excellent – 14 wins from 62 (SR 22.6%) for a healthy profit of £56.05 (ROI +90.4%).

 

However, there are some courses to avoid as the following table illustrates:

 

Course

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Nottingham

1

22

4.5%

-£15.00

-68.2%

Chester

2

44

4.5%

-£35.25

-80.1%

Ripon

4

63

6.3%

-£50.40

-80.0%

Pontefract

7

61

11.5%

-£40.29

-66.0%

 

The figures for Chester are incredibly poor for a trainer of his stature. Indeed of the 44 runners, 23 started in the top three of the betting!

Finally while looking at Mark Johnston, here are some other stats to be aware of. The top are strong positives, the bottom four are significant negatives:

 

Course

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Apprentice races

8

32

25.0%

+£41.50

+129.7%

2yos 57+ days

12

49

24.5%

+£21.87

+44.6%

Jockey - G Fairley

34

144

23.6%

+£65.18

+45.3%

Down in class

91

425

21.4%

+£51.82

+12.2%

Group Races

12

120

10.0%

-£64.54

-53.8%

5f races

4

47

8.5%

-£32.58

-69.3%

2yo nurseries

13

172

7.6%

-£106.67

-62.0%

Price 20/1+

3

203

1.5%

-£140.00

-69.0%

 

Sir Mark Prescott - Sir Mark Prescott is renowned for getting his string ready for a summer assault and the monthly stats seem to back this up:

 

Month

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

August

77

280

27.5%

-£4.83

-1.7%

September

50

279

17.9%

-£77.28

-27.7%

 

We see a big difference between August and September – as summer moves into the autumn the Prescott machine starts to slow down. Hence for the remainder of this section I will focus on August only. A strike rate of over 27% in August is exceptional, but amazingly he still has not made an overall profit. The reason for this is punters have latched onto Prescott in the summer months and hence the prices have contracted as a result. However, there are some angles that have proved profitable:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Sandown

6

12

50.0%

+£11.50

+95.8%

Newcastle

8

18

44.4%

+£15.05

+83.6%

3yos over 1m6f+

17

39

43.6%

+£2426.

+62.6%

2nd LTO

14

36

38.9%

+£13.50

+37.5%

3yo only races

30

79

38.0%

+£11.14

+14.1%

Up in class

23

72

31.9%

+£18.03

+25.0%

2yo nurseries

6

19

31.6%

+£9.00

+47.4%

3rd favourites

9

29

31.0%

+£22.50

+77.6%

2nd favourites

16

59

27.1%

+£8.10

+13.7%

2yo fillies

12

45

26.7%

+£23.93

+53.2%

 

There seems to be value if you ignore Prescott’s favourites and focus on those 2nd or 3rd in the betting market. Also horses that were 2nd LTO are good value as are 2yo fillies and horses upped in class. He also is worth noting when taking horses to Newcastle or Sandown, while his 3yos do especially well when tackling very long distances.

 

From a negative perspective, here are three areas to avoid in August:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Group/Listed races

1

26

3.8%

-£21.00

-80.8%

2yos down in trip

0

10

0%

-£10.00

-100%

2yo colts in maidens

2

20

10%

-£16.56

-82.8%

 

Clearly his runners in the highest class struggle.

 

John Gosden – another of the top trainers and his record at this time of the year is worth noting:

 

Month

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

August

89

464

19.2%

-£51.54

-11.1%

September

106

492

21.5%

+£136.36

+27.7%

 

Similar strike rates in each month although there have been much better returns in September. The good news is there are several profitable avenues for following Gosden runners when narrowing down thus:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

2yo favs

44

83

53.0%

+£18.50

+22.3%

2yo Group Races

12

37

32.4%

+£22.45

+60.7%

2yo Up in class

22

72

30.6%

+£50.99

+70.8%

2yo 2nd favs

19

63

30.2%

+£16.64

+26.4%

Owner Sheikh Mohammed 2yos

7

25

28.0%

+£35.80

+143.2%

Down in distance

39

146

26.7%

+£71.99

+49.3%

Haydock

10

41

24.4%

+£26.83

+65.4%

Male Only races

41

171

24.0%

+£74.67

+43.7%

Off track 8 weeks or more

31

130

23.8%

+£67.53

+51.9%

Salisbury

16

68

23.5%

+£24.87

+36.6%

2yo

86

383

22.5%

+£106.64

+27.8%

Newmarket

26

125

20.8%

+£73.58

+58.9%

 

There are numerous positive angles for punters to get stuck into in the near future, especially where his 2yo runners are concerned. However, there are a few negatives worth noting also:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Weight 8st 7lb or lower

8

86

9.3%

-£42.25

-49.1%

York

4

35

11.4%

-£16.56

-47.3%

Distance 1m 4f+

22

133

16.5%

-£43.82

-32.9%

 

The three trainers discussed should provide punters with some good winners and some solid profits over the coming weeks. Of course, there are numerous other positive trainer angles in August and September and here ten trainers with particularly good stats to note:

 

BarryHillsrunners on soft or heavy ground – 25 wins from 133 (SR 18.8%); profit +£93.50 (ROI +70.3%).

 

Saeed Bin Suroorrunners returning to track after break of 8 to 18 days – 38 wins from 113 (SR 33.6%); profit +£57.72 (ROI +51.1%).

 

Sir Micheal Stoute – runners at Pontefract in 3yo+ races – 11 wins from 19 (SR 57.9%); profit +£19.66 (ROI +103.5%).

Richard Fahey - runners at Beverley in handicaps – 16 wins from 71 (SR 22.5%); profit +£81.88 (ROI +115.3%).

 

Roger Charltonrunners at Brighton – 6 wins from 9 (SR 66.7%); profit +£18.83 (ROI +209.2%).

 

Richard Hannon – favourites in 3yo only races – 12 wins from 24 (SR 50%); profit +£14.64 (ROI +61%).

 

John Dunlop3yos at Brighton – 8 wins from 21 (SR 38.1%); profit +£24.50 (ROI +116.7%).

 

Michael Dodshandicap races / horses dropped in class / runners 15 or less – 14 wins from 59 (SR 23.7%); profit +£87.95 (ROI +149.1%).

 

Ed Vaughan – fillies / mares in handicaps – 9 wins from 24 (SR 37.5%) profit +£44.00 (ROI +183.3%).

 

Marcus Tregoning – Group 2/3 races – 17 wins from 42 (SR 40.5%); profit +£45.58 (ROI +108.5%).

 








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