Is there a link to more successful trainers using past “in running” data?

In this article I am going to look to see if there is a link between more successful trainers and early pace shown in a race. The data has been taken from March 29^th 2007 - May 31^st 2010 and I have concentrated on 2yo non handicaps.

I have created pace averages for each trainer. Pace averages have been calculated by using “in running” comments from the Racing Press. Horses that “made all”; “led” early in the race get a maximum of 5 points; horses that raced at the back early or are held up nearer the back of the field than the front score 1.5. Other comments that suggest the horses tracked the pace or chased leaders etc score between 1.5 and 5. There are so many different comments that I won’t bore you with what all different comments score. Suffice to say that all of the trainers’ runners have been averaged to give each trainer a “pace average”. My theory is that trainers with the highest pace averages will prove the most successful in terms of strike rate and returns than those with lower ones.

I have listed the trainers in order of pace average with the left column showing the top half of the trainers and the right column showing the bottom half. I have only considered trainers that have had at least 60 runners in 2yo non handicaps during the period of study