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Trainer Analysis Of First Four Runs In Hurdle Races


Trainer Analysis Of First Four Runs In Hurdle Races

 

Trainers tend to follow similar patterns year in year out. Their training methods do not seem to change markedly over time and therefore trainers tend to make for good trends research. In this article I will be looking at the performance of National Hunt trainers with inexperienced hurdlers. I will be examining and comparing their performance on their hurdling debut, on their second hurdling start, on their third hurdling start and also on their fourth hurdling start. The data has been taken from 1st Jan 2007 to 1st August 2012. 

 

Hurdling debut – to qualify for this table a trainer needs to have saddled at least 35 hurdling debutants. Firstly let us look at the trainers with the highest strike rates:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Henderson, N J

292

98

33.6

+£51.95

+17.8

Nicholls, P F

279

74

26.5

+£4.92

+1.8

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

49

10

20.4

-£4.21

-8.6

Quinn, J J

49

9

18.4

-£13.07

-26.7

King, A

307

49

16.0

-£27.62

-9.0

McCain Jnr, D

237

36

15.2

+£1.91

+0.8

Lavelle, Miss E C

109

16

14.7

+£29.83

+27.4

Hobbs, P J

238

34

14.3

-£61.05

-25.7

Williams, Nick

35

5

14.3

+£22.38

+63.9

Pipe, D E

235

33

14.0

-£50.38

-21.4

King, N B

53

7

13.2

+£2.38

+4.5

West, Miss Sheena

39

5

12.8

+£45.50

+116.7

Swinbank, G A

56

7

12.5

-£11.42

-20.4

Keighley, M

41

5

12.2

-£6.17

-15.0

 

Nicky Henderson’s record is mightily impressive – a 1 in 3 strike rate and a decent profit to boot. He has performed well at numerous tracks – the three that stand out are Huntingdon with 11 wins from 27 (SR 40.7%), Sandown with 8 wins from 18 (SR 44.4) and Taunton with 6 wins from 11 (SR 54.5%). He also has a much better record in novice hurdles as compared to maiden hurdles – in maiden hurdles his record reads 21 wins from 77 (SR 27.3%) for a loss of £9.81 (ROI -12.7%); in novice hurdles his record reads an impressive 73 winners from 186 (SR 39.2%) for a profit of £76.57 (ROI +41.2%).

 

Now onto trainers with the lowest strike rates with their hurdling debutants:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Evans, P D

38

1

2.6

-£32.50

-85.5

Mullins, J W

77

2

2.6

-£34.50

-44.8

Baker, George

40

1

2.5

-£23.00

-57.5

Williams, Ian

88

2

2.3

-£66.50

-75.6

Bailey, Mrs Caroline

44

1

2.3

-£27.00

-61.4

Dickin, R

44

1

2.3

-£10.00

-22.7

Murphy, Ferdy

92

2

2.2

-£76.50

-83.2

Harris, M F

51

1

2.0

-£25.00

-49.0

Easterby, M W

87

0

0.0

-£87.00

-100.0

Mulholland, N P

67

0

0.0

-£67.00

-100.0

Frost, J D

63

0

0.0

-£63.00

-100.0

Wade, J

54

0

0.0

-£54.00

-100.0

Hawke, N J

50

0

0.0

-£50.00

-100.0

Gordon, C

42

0

0.0

-£42.00

-100.0

Corcoran, L

41

0

0.0

-£41.00

-100.0

Keevil, Mrs Caroline

41

0

0.0

-£41.00

-100.0

Oshea, J G M

38

0

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

Buckler, R H

37

0

0.0

-£37.00

-100.0

 

These trainers are worth avoiding on hurdling debut by the looks of it!

 

2nd hurdling start – onto second hurdling run now. As before there are two tables – the first with the highest strike rates and the second with the lowest. Once again 35 runs is the cut off point.

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Henderson, N J

279

84

30.1

-£43.07

-15.4

Nicholls, P F

247

55

22.3

-£48.35

-19.6

Williams, Nick

35

7

20.0

-£14.22

-40.6

Swinbank, G A

41

7

17.1

-£20.02

-48.8

King, A

295

48

16.3

-£126.60

-42.9

Longsdon, C E

83

13

15.7

+£5.45

+6.6

McCain Jnr, D

217

33

15.2

-£53.05

-24.4

Quinn, J J

40

6

15.0

-£18.45

-46.1

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

41

6

14.6

-£21.92

-53.5

Ellison, B

48

7

14.6

-£1.06

-2.2

Dartnall, V R A

56

8

14.3

+£28.58

+51.0

Reveley, K G

56

8

14.3

-£15.40

-27.5

Vaughan, Tim

135

19

14.1

-£49.74

-36.8

 

Henderson again tops the list, but an overall loss has been posted despite a very good strike rate. I assume punters drive the prices of his runners down due to the fact that they have already had a run and have more of a handle on their chances.

 

Now the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Goldsworthy, W K

39

1

2.6

-£36.25

-92.9

Hawke, N J

44

1

2.3

-£38.00

-86.4

Hales, A M

47

1

2.1

-£43.00

-91.5

Wade, J

51

1

2.0

-£34.00

-66.7

Scudamore, M J

63

1

1.6

-£55.00

-87.3

Down, C J

64

1

1.6

-£60.25

-94.1

Phillips, R T

72

0

0.0

-£72.00

-100.0

Frost, J D

47

0

0.0

-£47.00

-100.0

Dickin, R

39

0

0.0

-£39.00

-100.0

Spearing, J L

37

0

0.0

-£37.00

-100.0

Guest, R C

35

0

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

 

Again most, if not all of these trainers look worth avoiding under these conditions.

 

3rd Hurdling start – now a look at the trainer stats for horses that have run twice over hurdles and are having their third hurdling start. Once again the better trainers first (min 30 runs to qualify):

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Swinbank, G A

34

9

26.5

-£2.01

-5.9

Henderson, N J

251

60

23.9

-£14.87

-5.9

Williams, Nick

32

7

21.9

+£12.34

+38.6

King, A

277

59

21.3

+£34.24

+12.4

Nicholls, P F

231

49

21.2

-£79.87

-34.6

Ellison, B

34

7

20.6

-£5.72

-16.8

McCain Jnr, D

205

42

20.5

-£50.84

-24.8

Hobbs, P J

224

45

20.1

-£35.21

-15.7

Mann, C J

88

17

19.3

+£6.01

+6.8

Dartnall, V R A

51

9

17.6

-£8.74

-17.1

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

35

6

17.1

-£15.75

-45.0

Wadham, Mrs L

42

7

16.7

-£3.07

-7.3

Turnell, Andrew

36

6

16.7

-£11.67

-32.4

 

Alan Swinbank heads the list but his runners have still made a small loss. Alan King’s record is impressive considering the number of runners he has had. King has done especially well in the shorter distance hurdle races – races of 2m 1f or less his record reads 33 wins from 127 (SR 26%) for a profit of £56.64 (ROI +44.6%).

 

A look at the trainers with the poorest strike rates:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Bailey, Mrs Caroline

32

1

3.1

-£29.75

-93.0

Barnes, M A

34

1

2.9

£7.00

20.6

Candlish, Jennie

34

1

2.9

-£28.00

-82.4

Hawke, N J

35

1

2.9

£16.00

45.7

Dickin, R

39

1

2.6

-£26.00

-66.7

Frost, J D

43

1

2.3

-£31.00

-72.1

Wade, J

44

1

2.3

-£39.00

-88.6

Easterby, T D

39

0

0.0

-£39.00

-100.0

Gordon, C

36

0

0.0

-£36.00

-100.0

Buckler, R H

34

0

0.0

-£34.00

-100.0

Mackie, J

32

0

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

Normile, Mrs L B

32

0

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

 

4th Hurdling start – onto the fourth hurdling start now (min 25 runs to qualify):

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Williams, Nick

26

8

30.8

+£19.13

+73.6

Quinn, J J

41

12

29.3

+£36.68

+89.5

Nicholls, P F

192

50

26.0

+£60.34

+31.4

Swinbank, G A

27

7

25.9

-£10.39

-38.5

Ewart, J P L

31

8

25.8

+£35.32

+113.9

Dartnall, V R A

46

11

23.9

+£26.25

+57.1

Henderson, N J

201

48

23.9

+£47.43

+23.6

Charlton, G A

28

6

21.4

+£9.15

+32.7

Walford, T D

28

6

21.4

+£56.75

+202.7

Thorpe, Mrs A M

57

12

21.1

+£41.13

+72.2

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

30

6

20.0

-£12.87

-42.9

Jefferson, J M

48

9

18.8

+£52.58

+109.5

Lavelle, Miss E C

70

13

18.6

+£3.85

5.5

 

A very positive set of stats with 11 of the 13 trainers in the list showing a profit. My initial thinking was that it might be down to a first run in a handicap but looking at the handicap figures this is definitely not the case. Whatever, the reason, several trainers seem to perform well with hurdlers having their fourth start over the smaller obstacles.

 

A look at those trainers now with a poor strike rate with their 4th start hurdlers:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Gifford, N J

45

2

4.4

-£33.00

-73.3

Easterby, T D

27

1

3.7

-£25.47

-94.3

Guest, R C

27

1

3.7

-£23.00

-85.2

Case, B I

28

1

3.6

-£25.80

-92.1

Moffatt, James

29

1

3.4

£0.00

0.0

Dickin, R

33

1

3.0

-£30.25

-91.7

Bealby, C C

38

1

2.6

-£23.00

-60.5

Scudamore, M J

41

0

0.0

-£41.00

-100.0

Frost, J D

40

0

0.0

-£40.00

-100.0

Wade, J

31

0

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

Gordon, C

30

0

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

Hawke, N J

29

0

0.0

-£29.00

-100.0

 

 

 

Comparison by Strike rate

 

To qualify for this table each trainer must have saddled at least 25 runners for each of their first four hurdling starts. The strike rates are shown so that a simple comparison can be made.

 

Trainer

Debut SR%

2nd run SR%

3rd run SR%

4th run SR%

Bailey, K C

7.79

8.11

9.59

11.11

Barnes, M A

2.70

2.78

2.94

6.67

Bealby, C C

3.57

10.00

6.82

2.63

Best, Jim

7.89

9.76

14.29

10.00

Bowen, P

4.26

4.21

15.63

9.30

Buckler, R H

0.00

2.86

0.00

6.45

Candlish, Jennie

8.11

6.06

2.94

8.82

Carroll, A W

3.28

3.64

6.52

11.63

Case, B I

0.00

0.00

3.57

3.57

Chance, Noel T

5.56

6.06

9.09

6.67

Charlton, G A

4.88

5.71

11.76

21.43

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

20.41

14.63

17.14

20.00

Daly, H D

3.95

8.45

13.51

8.70

Dartnall, V R A

4.92

14.29

17.65

23.91

Dickin, R

2.27

0.00

2.56

3.03

Down, C J

5.41

1.56

5.45

5.88

Easterby, M W

0.00

2.78

5.56

12.50

Easterby, T D

6.67

7.69

0.00

3.70

Egerton, C R

5.88

11.63

7.89

7.14

Ellison, B

11.11

14.58

20.59

11.43

Ewart, J P L

7.32

8.82

12.50

25.81

Fahey, R A

4.76

25.00

16.00

14.81

Frost, J D

0.00

0.00

2.33

0.00

George, T R

7.53

9.20

7.14

11.43

Gifford, N J

8.82

8.33

10.71

4.44

Goldie, J S

0.00

8.82

9.68

9.38

Goldsworthy, W K

6.67

2.56

13.16

6.25

Gordon, C

0.00

2.63

0.00

0.00

Grant, C

3.13

3.45

3.64

10.42

Greatrex, W J

7.69

7.69

8.82

11.54

Guest, R C

4.88

0.00

6.67

3.70

Hales, A M

3.57

2.13

8.70

11.90

Hammond, Micky

6.25

10.87

7.69

5.26

Harris, M F

1.96

6.52

6.52

10.00

Hawke, N J

0.00

2.27

2.86

0.00

Henderson, N J

33.56

30.11

23.90

23.88

Hobbs, P J

14.29

12.45

20.09

16.34

Jefferson, J M

10.14

8.62

8.93

18.75

Keevil, Mrs Caroline

0.00

5.41

0.00

11.54

Keighley, M

12.20

9.76

15.79

8.33

King, A

15.96

16.27

21.30

16.21

King, N B

13.21

3.51

4.00

12.50

Kirby, P A

3.57

3.57

0.00

11.11

Lavelle, Miss E C

14.68

13.73

13.33

18.57

Longsdon, C E

7.69

15.66

11.54

11.76

Mackie, J

2.86

0.00

0.00

11.11

Mann, C J

7.84

8.16

19.32

18.52

McCain Jnr, D

15.19

15.21

20.49

17.11

Moffatt, James

2.78

0.00

0.00

3.45

Moore, G L

10.43

11.43

14.17

11.97

Moore, G M

7.69

9.30

5.41

5.56

Morlock, C P

0.00

0.00

3.70

7.41

Mulholland, N P

0.00

6.67

4.08

7.32

Mullins, J W

2.60

3.03

10.00

5.88

Murphy, Ferdy

2.17

5.43

8.14

15.00

Nicholls, P F

26.52

22.27

21.21

26.04

Old, J A B

0.00

0.00

0.00

6.06

O’ Neill, Jonjo

6.09

9.54

8.10

16.67

Phillips, R T

2.82

0.00

6.06

6.67

Pipe, D E

14.04

11.40

11.52

12.50

Powell, B G

3.88

6.84

14.68

10.89

Quinn, J J

18.37

15.00

11.63

29.27

Reveley, K G

7.94

14.29

8.00

17.39

Richards, N G

8.79

10.99

15.56

12.79

Rowe, R

0.00

6.90

7.41

7.41

Russell, Miss Lucinda

9.20

7.53

6.59

10.34

Scott, J

9.52

8.11

5.41

16.67

Scudamore, M J

3.13

1.59

8.33

0.00

Sherwood, O

10.81

8.00

6.06

11.67

Smith, Mrs S J

3.74

4.81

7.00

9.20

Spearing, J L

2.70

0.00

9.09

4.00

Swinbank, G A

12.50

17.07

26.47

25.93

Thorpe, Mrs A M

7.69

6.56

5.97

21.05

Tizzard, C L

9.33

13.04

6.78

13.46

Turnell, Andrew

6.52

5.00

16.67

10.34

Twiston-Davies, N A

10.44

10.40

13.71

16.34

Vaughan, Tim

11.54

14.07

10.24

16.98

Wade, J

0.00

1.96

2.27

0.00

Wadham, Mrs L

6.38

8.89

16.67

11.76

Walford, T D

7.69

4.35

5.56

21.43

Walton, Mrs K

0.00

0.00

11.11

10.34

Webber, P R

4.63

12.63

7.32

6.94

West, Miss Sheena

12.82

21.88

6.45

11.54

Whillans, A C

3.03

3.57

3.57

10.71

Williams, Evan

10.18

10.10

11.17

17.42

Williams, Ian

2.27

4.88

10.84

10.98

Williams, Miss V

8.92

10.67

10.64

12.20

Williams, Nick

14.29

20.00

21.88

30.77

 

This table should prove especially useful for trainers who have clear patterns. For example Dartnall, Nick Williams, Ewart, Murphy and Charlton show improvement in strike rate from run to run. Other trainers have a similar strike rate across the board – Nicholls, Lavelle, Gary Moore, Pipe and Rebecca Curtis are examples of this type of trainer. Other trainers have a much better record in runs 3 and 4 than in runs 1 and 2 – Ian Williams and Brendan Powell are examples of this. Also you have trainers that have a much better record on the fourth run compared to each of their first three – Whillans, Quinn and Thorpe are examples of this. Of course there are some trainers where it is difficult to pick up any significant trends, so these trainers we need to be slightly wary of in terms of having strong convictions about.

 

All in all this type of digging can only help you unravel hurdle races where hurdling experience is limited. I hope it will point you in the right direction of some winners this winter.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 








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