op National Hunt Trainers – Evaluation Of Price by David Renham

A friend of mine e mailed me the other day asking me whether there was any value in opposing some of the top trainers when their runners were not fancied. He suggested looking at prices of 10/1 or more. I have noticed for many years that very few of top trainers land big priced winners so thought the idea was worth further exploration. I decided to look at 10 of the top National Hunt trainers and the data was taken from 1^st January 2009 to 30^th September 2011. The trainers I chose were those that had the most winners in the 2010-11 season – these were Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Donald Mc Cain, Philip Hobbs, David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill, Evan Williams and Tim Vaughan.

In terms of price I decided to split into four groups to give a better comparison. I used traditional SP for splitting the results and the price bands were:

7/2 or shorter;

4/1 to 15/2;

8/1 to 14/1;

16/1 or bigger.

Let us see the results. Firstly horses priced 7/2 or shorter; the profit and loss is checked to SP using £1 win level stakes:

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