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Top Jockeys And Their Pace Profile


A Look At The Top Jockeys And Their Pace Profile

In this article I am revisiting my love of pace in horse racing focusing again on jockeys – more specifically the top 10 jockeys in terms of strike rate. My first article on jockeys focused mainly on how they had performed on front runners – this article is a broader piece looking at all running styles.

To recap on the Geegeez website the pace data is split into four categories - Led, Prominent, Mid Division and Held Up. Here is a breakdown on what they essentially mean:

Led – horses that lead early, usually within the first furlong or so; or horses that dispute or fight for the early lead;

Prominent – horses that lay up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack;

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

On Geegeez these running/pace styles have a number assigned to them – led (4), prominent (3), mid division (2) and held up (1). This helps the number crunchers like me when it comes to research.

For this article I have looked at a decent chunk of data (1/1/14 to 6/7/19) including both turf and all weather racing (UK only). I have initially looked at all races, all distances (handicaps and non handicaps).

The jockeys I am focusing on are shown in the table below with their overall record in all races and with all running styles combined. They are listed in alphabetical order:

Jockey

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Andrea Atzeni

3196

569

17.80

-183.88

-5.75

0.94

1.83

William Buick

2532

495

19.55

-204.12

-8.06

0.92

2.00

Jim Crowley

4525

754

16.66

-438.06

-9.68

0.95

1.67

Frankie Dettori

1584

352

22.22

-12.22

-0.77

0.97

2.37

James Doyle

3204

648

20.22

-400.14

-12.49

0.96

2.08

Adam Kirby

5383

864

16.05

-1040.36

-19.33

0.89

1.60

Ryan  Moore

2893

613

21.19

-578.33

-19.99

0.86

2.15

Oisin Murphy

4804

713

14.84

-849.51

-17.68

0.88

1.47

Silvestre De Sousa

4812

874

18.16

-493.68

-10.26

0.96

1.78

Daniel Tudhope

3534

602

17.03

-213.8

-6.05

0.96

1.77

 

These are some base figures to work from and to use as a comparison when we break the data down. In the next table we see the overall figures for all jockeys in terms of their record with different pace/running styles:

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Held Up (1)

11358

1446

12.73

-3275.36

-28.84

0.77

1.26

Mid division (2)

5613

719

12.81

-1382.96

-24.64

0.79

1.43

Prominent (3)

12936

2616

20.22

-870.32

-6.73

0.96

1.92

Led (4)

5885

1622

27.56

1415.19

24.05

1.19

2.45

 

Those who have read previous articles on pace will know that it is much easier to win from the front over shorter distances. Over longer distances it is harder to win from the front, but in truth it is rarely a huge disadvantage. The pace results for all jockeys clearly indicate that the nearer to the front they ride the more likely they are to win. It is much harder in general to win from the back half of the field.

Let us now look at how these jockeys fared individually when they took the early lead:

Jockey

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Andrea Atzeni

341

105

30.79

140.56

41.22

1.25

2.72

William Buick

410

133

32.44

122.11

29.78

1.27

2.98

Jim Crowley

593

158

26.64

68.02

11.47

1.11

2.24

Frankie Dettori

273

82

30.04

76.82

28.14

1.17

2.78

James Doyle

554

153

27.62

90.57

16.35

1.13

2.56

Adam Kirby

926

216

23.33

136.00

14.69

1.17

2.12

Ryan  Moore

395

130

32.91

54.47

13.79

1.13

2.85

Oisin Murphy

801

192

23.97

205.31

25.63

1.15

2.11

Silvestre De Sousa

1051

303

28.83

312.66

29.75

1.28

2.52

Daniel Tudhope

541

150

27.73

208.66

38.57

1.26

2.46

 

Good records for all of them as you’d expect, but the higher A/E values for Atzeni, Buick, De Sousa and Tudhope catch my eye. In addition their strike rates and ROI%s are all above the average figure for all 10 jockeys. Let me breakdown their front running figures by distance. Firstly Andrea Atzeni:  

Distance

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

5 - 6f

80

31

38.75

75.64

94.55

1.68

3.42

6.5 - 9f

164

46

28.05

40.74

24.84

1.18

2.62

10 - 12f

85

26

30.59

30.05

35.35

1.12

2.49

13f+

12

2

16.67

-5.87

-48.92

0.59

1.15

 

Stronger figures over the sprint trips as you would suspect but very solid up to 12f. Limited data beyond that to make more of a conclusion. A good and successful jockey from the front.

Now William Buick:

Distance

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

5 - 6f

110

40

36.36

78.7

71.55

1.39

3.54

6.5 - 9f

180

60

33.33

27.1

15.06

1.28

3.04

10 - 12f

104

27

25.96

9.76

9.38

1.07

2.26

13f+

16

6

37.5

6.55

40.94

1.57

3.45

 

Very strong figures from 5f up to 9f, more especially over 5-6f. Solid figures at the longer trips. Onto De Sousa:

Distance

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

5 - 6f

281

84

29.89

109.39

38.93

1.27

2.7

6.5 - 9f

440

135

30.68

112.58

25.59

1.35

2.72

10 - 12f

252

61

24.21

69.41

27.54

1.16

2.03

13f+

78

23

29.49

21.28

27.28

1.24

2.48

 

Personally I’m a big fan of De Sousa – I think he is a great rider from the front and to me he is an excellent judge of pace. His figures are very consistent across all distances which shows his versatility and pace judgement. Finally onto Danny Tudhope:

Distance

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

5 - 6f

199

61

30.65

123.12

61.87

1.31

2.77

6.5 - 9f

235

69

29.36

77.72

33.07

1.32

2.64

10 - 12f

85

16

18.82

14.07

16.55

1.01

1.53

13f+

22

4

18.18

-6.25

-28.41

0.84

1.68

 

Tudhope’s figures are much better over 9f or less, although the data for 10f+ is fairly limited.

Before I move from the front running data there is one more stat to share and that concerns Frankie Dettori. He seems a particularly good judge of pace in small fields when leading early. In races of 6 or less runners, when he has taken the early lead he has won just under 50% of the time (33 wins from 67 rides; A/E 1.28). When we look at the overall figures for all 10 jockeys their combined strike rate is 35% with an A/E index of 1.

Let us look next at the prominent runner data; firstly for all 10 jockeys:

Jockey

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Andrea Atzeni

1193

260

21.79

62.9

5.27

1.00

2.15

William Buick

987

214

21.68

-73.8

-7.48

0.91

2.10

Jim Crowley

1568

316

20.15

57.97

3.70

1.05

1.94

Frankie Dettori

524

133

25.38

-3.79

-0.72

1.01

2.60

James Doyle

1133

269

23.74

-42.25

-3.73

1.01

2.35

Adam Kirby

1782

317

17.79

-327.54

-18.38

0.90

1.69

Ryan  Moore

939

221

23.54

-262.24

-27.93

0.85

2.18

Oisin Murphy

1763

312

17.70

-100.23

-5.69

0.94

1.69

Silvestre De Sousa

1696

337

19.87

-99.69

-5.88

0.99

1.91

Daniel Tudhope

1351

237

17.54

-81.65

-6.04

0.93

1.78

 

Frankie Dettori’s figures are extremely solid when it comes to racing prominently in a race. One area where Dettori seems to excel, when he races close to the pace, is in better class races, as the table below clearly shows:

Major Race Class

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Group 1

36

12

33.33

22.75

63.19

1.33

3.71

Group 2

65

18

27.69

27.44

42.22

1.31

2.66

Group 3

43

13

30.23

7.95

18.49

1.39

2.93

Listed Race

49

18

36.73

32.86

67.06

1.32

3.01

Non-Major Race

331

72

21.75

-94.79

-28.64

0.84

2.32

 

I suspect his strong record in Group and Listed races is due to the fact that he knows the horses he is riding at this higher level extremely well. Hence he is able to judge when to challenge from his pace tracking position. Noting these figures, it should also come as no surprise that Dettori has a much better record in non handicaps compared to handicaps as shown:

Race Type

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Non-Handicap

368

111

30.16

63.82

17.34

1.14

2.93

Handicap

156

22

14.10

-67.61

-43.34

0.65

1.63

 

Jim Crowley has the best A/E index and strong stats all round when his mounts race prominently. He seems to do best at middle to longer distances when riding close to the pace – focusing in on races between 10 and 14 furlongs his record reads an impressive 103 wins from 419  rides (SR 24.6%) with an A/E index of 1.28. It is also worth mentioning that Crowley has a remarkable record when racing prominently at Nottingham scoring 46% of the time (24 wins from 52 rides). Limited data yes, but interesting to note nonetheless.

Time to switch to the mid division data for all the jockeys:

Jockey

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Andrea Atzeni

571

61

10.68

-233.33

-40.86

0.71

1.27

William Buick

371

49

13.21

-9.18

-2.47

0.78

1.63

Jim Crowley

789

93

11.79

-141.36

-17.92

0.83

1.38

Frankie Dettori

269

48

17.84

-1.19

-0.44

0.94

2.19

James Doyle

531

74

13.94

-168.34

-31.7

0.83

1.67

Adam Kirby

856

109

12.73

-219.44

-25.64

0.79

1.46

Ryan  Moore

504

97

19.25

-53.67

-10.65

0.90

2.23

Oisin Murphy

682

53

7.77

-396.56

-58.15

0.55

0.89

Silvestre De Sousa

591

72

12.18

-102.85

-17.4

0.76

1.40

Daniel Tudhope

449

63

14.03

-57.04

-12.7

0.93

1.69

 

A significant drop in every area but Dettori, Moore and Tudhope all have reasonable records. Dettori remarkably scores over 24% of the time in races of 10f or more (23 wins from 94 rides; A/E 1.12); meanwhile Ryan Moore has done well when riding for Aidan O’Brien with 19 wins and 18 placed runners from 66 runners.

Now to their records when their horses have been held up off the pace. Here are base figures:

Jockey

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Andrea Atzeni

1026

136

13.26

-141.63

-13.80

0.83

1.38

William Buick

719

95

13.21

-218.24

-30.35

0.76

1.39

Jim Crowley

1499

178

11.87

-382.23

-25.50

0.80

1.21

Frankie Dettori

483

85

17.60

-67.56

-13.99

0.84

1.93

James Doyle

926

143

15.44

-254.69

-27.50

0.84

1.61

Adam Kirby

1727

214

12.39

-574.36

-33.26

0.77

1.25

Ryan  Moore

1002

155

15.47

-305.11

-30.45

0.73

1.67

Oisin Murphy

1441

140

9.72

-514.23

-35.69

0.72

0.98

Silvestre De Sousa

1374

152

11.06

-539.54

-39.27

0.69

1.13

Daniel Tudhope

1161

148

12.75

-277.77

-23.93

0.82

1.36

 

As with the mid div data these figures are relatively moderate. This just highlights the difficulties jockeys face when hold up their mounts. Not only have they got ground to make up on the front rank, but often they have to negotiate traffic problems. It is interesting when you look at bigger field data for these jockeys with all running/pace styles considered. In races of 16 or more they still win 18.1% of the time on front runners, but on hold up horses this drops to just 6.7%. William Buick has a particularly poor record in these big field races on hold up horses scoring just 3 times in 77 attempts (SR 3.9%).

Finally in this piece I have looked at trainer / jockey combinations – looking at the specific trainer that each jockey has ridden the most for. I have two columns which show the breakdown by pace/running style and the relevant pace percentages for each pace/running style. For example if a jockey had ridden 200 times for the trainer and led in 46 of the races this would equate to 23%.

 

Atzeni / Roger Varian

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

293

46

15.70

-58.38

-19.92

0.79

1.69

28.70

Mid division (2)

185

25

13.51

-46.36

-25.06

0.81

1.63

18.12

Prominent (3)

434

106

24.42

-6.18

-1.42

0.95

2.48

42.51

Led (4)

109

34

31.19

3.26

2.99

1.04

2.68

10.68

 

Interesting to note that the Atzeni / Varian combination do not seem great fans of sending horses out into an early lead. They seem much happier tracking the pace.

 

Buick / Charlie Appleby

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

216

37

17.13

-75.81

-35.10

0.83

1.71

25.17

Mid division (2)

127

21

16.54

22.01

17.33

0.88

2.08

14.80

Prominent (3)

351

97

27.64

20.15

5.74

0.98

2.60

40.91

Led (4)

164

66

40.24

49.77

30.35

1.30

3.54

19.11

 

The Buick / Appleby pairing have an excellent record when sending out their runners to the front early on – over 40% have gone onto win. It comes as no surprise therefore that they have taken an early lead in just under 1 in every 5 races.

 

 

Crowley / Charles Hills

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

101

7

6.93

-45.87

-45.42

0.53

0.70

33.33

Mid division (2)

50

7

14.00

11.30

22.60

1.06

1.73

16.50

Prominent (3)

118

20

16.95

-20.34

-17.24

0.77

1.70

38.94

Led (4)

34

10

29.41

14.70

43.24

1.29

2.54

11.22

 

I wonder if the data connected with hold up horses for this combination is known to either Crowley or Hills. Surely if they saw these stats they would NOT hold up 33.3% of their runners!

 

Dettori / John Gosden

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

185

37

20.00

-39.94

-21.59

0.74

2.03

29.94

Mid division (2)

101

24

23.76

0.09

0.09

0.99

2.74

16.34

Prominent (3)

223

71

31.84

6.15

2.76

1.01

3.09

36.08

Led (4)

109

48

44.04

60.50

55.50

1.32

3.66

17.64

 

Strong stats generally for this paring as one might expect. A Gosden front runner with Dettori on board produces excellent results.

 

Doyle / Charlie Appleby

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

62

12

19.35

-15.85

-25.56

0.84

2.04

19.31

Mid division (2)

51

8

15.69

-17.50

-34.31

0.93

1.95

15.89

Prominent (3)

142

40

28.17

-25.96

-18.28

1.02

2.91

44.24

Led (4)

66

20

30.30

-5.40

-8.18

1.03

2.79

20.56

 

As with the Buick / Appleby combination we see a good percentage of runners that take an early lead (20.56%). In addition a very high percentage race prominently too (44.24%). However, the profit/loss figures are less impressive.

 

 

 

Kirby / Clive Cox

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

256

27

10.55

-100.78

-39.37

0.69

1.08

25.86

Mid division (2)

186

25

13.44

-30.86

-16.59

0.89

1.65

18.79

Prominent (3)

396

74

18.69

-66.94

-16.90

0.95

1.88

40.00

Led (4)

152

45

29.61

72.56

47.74

1.39

2.88

15.35

 

A decent record on front runners with a high A/E index of 1.39. Nothing much else to note.

 

Moore / Sir Michael Stoute

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

251

46

18.33

-61.65

-24.56

0.83

1.92

35.75

Mid division (2)

131

15

11.45

-50.65

-38.66

0.57

1.32

18.66

Prominent (3)

242

70

28.93

-38.36

-15.85

0.96

2.65

34.47

Led (4)

78

28

35.90

16.05

20.58

1.10

3.28

11.11

 

A good strike rate for hold up horses, but this is probably more down to the fact that Stoute has numerous top quality horses that could win regardless of running style, (as well as Ryan Moore being a decent jockey). Only 1 in 9 horses though are sent out into an early lead (despite the impressive 35.9% strike rate).

 

Murphy / Balding

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

239

21

8.79

-123.41

-51.64

0.63

0.90

28.05

Mid division (2)

130

12

9.23

-60.37

-46.44

0.67

1.09

15.26

Prominent (3)

334

72

21.56

33.57

10.05

1.00

2.11

39.20

Led (4)

149

41

27.52

30.46

20.44

1.20

2.47

17.49

 

The Murphy / Balding combo have done well when taking the early lead or racing prominently. When backing a horse from this pairing I would want to be fairly sure that the horse was likely to race up with or close to the pace.

 

 

 

De Sousa / Johnston

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

123

14

11.38

-56.42

-45.87

0.74

1.11

18.84

Mid division (2)

58

8

13.79

-12.44

-21.45

0.79

1.40

8.88

Prominent (3)

256

49

19.14

-34.98

-13.66

0.95

1.80

39.20

Led (4)

216

64

29.63

53.24

24.65

1.29

2.42

33.08

 

Anyone who knows Mark Johnston will not be surprised to see the high percentage of front runners – just under 1 in 3 have been sent to front early. This is far more than any of the other 9 combinations we are looking at. He is a trainer who understands the importance of racing up with the pace.

 

Tudhope / O’Meara

 

Pace/running style

Runs

Wins

Win %

Win PL

ROI

A/E

IV

Pace%

Held Up (1)

587

64

10.90

-224.55

-38.25

0.69

1.20

31.37

Mid division (2)

244

32

13.11

-42.91

-17.59

0.90

1.63

13.04

Prominent (3)

724

101

13.95

-99.02

-13.68

0.79

1.44

38.70

Led (4)

316

84

26.58

121.61

38.48

1.24

2.32

16.89

 

Nothing much to report here other than good front running stats once again.

 

I hope some of the data / thoughts shared in this article will prove useful in your punting. My betting revolves around pace more than any other factor; be it for straight betting or in running plays. I do believe pace offers an edge that is difficult to find anywhere else these days.

 

Dave Renham

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This article first appeared on the excellent GeeGeez.co.uk

 








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