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The Bounce Theory

The Bounce Theory

This week I am going to try and investigate the “Bounce Theory”. It was a theory initially brought to our attention by an American horse player Len Ragozin. His idea centred around the fact that if a horse ran a career best time or produced a much improved career best performance, there was a strong chance that the horse would ‘bounce’ next time. ‘Bounce’ meaning the horse suffered a negative reaction to that supreme effort and hence tends to flop or at least run well below form on this very next run.

The whole “Bounce Theory” has been expanded by other race commentators over the years with an example being if a horse runs three improved ‘figures’ be it speed figures or collateral form figures, then there is a strong chance the horse will ‘bounce’ on their next (4th) run. In Britain the “Bounce Theory” has tended to centre around horses running well after a long break and then ‘bouncing’ if returning to the track quickly. It is this idea that I am going to focus on in this article.

One of the problems of testing this particular ‘bounce’ idea is deciding the parameters for the research. Questions such as, ‘how long a break should we include as a starting point?’, ‘what length of time do we use for a quick return on their second run?’, ‘can we group National Hunt horses with flat horses, or should we split them?’, ‘how do you determine running well after a long break?’, etc, etc. These are problems that people have struggled with over the years, and perhaps why little ‘concrete data’ is available in connection with the “Bounce Theory”. From my point of view, I am simply going to choose the time frames and performances as I see fit – whether they are ultimately ‘accurate’ or not I don’t think anyone can confidently say.

First things first I have decided to split the research into two – National Hunt racing will be my initial focus, before moving onto flat racing. I am hoping both codes will show similar results.

The rest of this article is Full Member Only and goes on to highlight some very profitable approaches for finding poor short priced horses in both flat and national hunt racing.


The rest of this article is only available to Full members

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