Systems for Favourites

Although I have personally never been a fan of backing favourites on a regular basis, I am sure many people do. Why people regularly back favourites is probably down to the fact that by backing them they will pick more winners than by using most other methods. Unfortunately, very few people seem to be able to make money out of backing horses that head the market. This could be down to the fact that the majority of punters find it difficult to distinguish easily between a favourite that is good value compared to one that is poor value. To gain an “edge” when betting, you need to obtain value odds for the selection you are backing – this is true regardless of price, and if you can get 11/8 about a horse whose true chance is Even money, then you have obtained that necessary value.

Over the past few years I have become much more interested in racing systems and system research. Back in 2006 I developed the idea of using a portfolio of systems – essentially rolling several systems into one package. Indeed, on www.punterprofits.com I have created a portfolio of National Hunt systems that has made a good long term profit; and also has made a decent profit since going “live” to members. The reason for this portfolio approach was to mirror what many stock market traders have done for many years, which essentially spreads the risk. We all have seen successful racing systems go through bad runs, and hence this approach is designed that if a system or systems are going through a losing spell, then hopefully the other systems will balance out the results. Most punters prefer a smoother ride with their betting – they don’t want major ups and downs. Well, they are happy with the “ups” of course!! The portfolio approach should give punters this smoother ride with shorter losing runs. This consistency is important IMO for the mental side of betting.

In this article my aim is to try and find some systems that could be placed in a portfolio of systems for favourites in flat racing. I am hoping that combining favourite systems within a portfolio means that the “ride” will be very smooth indeed with a high strike rate coupled with short losing runs.

Now the problem with any system based on favourites is that it is difficult to make decent profits as the margins at that end of the market are very tight. My idea therefore was to find systems that may not have that many qualifiers a year, but when combined with several other systems would potentially produce a fair profit on a yearly basis. My aim is to eventually have between 20 and 30 systems to put into the portfolio – I started this research several months ago and here are four of those that I plan to use.

This article goes on to provide full rules for four racing systems with results as follows;

System 1

The results have been as follows:


Bets 1023
Wins 475
Strike Rate 46.4%
Profit +£704.50 (to £10 level stakes)
ROI +6.9%



System 2 -

The results have been as follows:

Bets 575
Wins 210
Strike Rate 36.5%
Profit +£1235.20 (to £10 level stakes)
ROI +21.5%



System 3

The results have been as follows:

Bets 457
Wins 214
Strike Rate 46.8%
Profit +£834.60 (to £10 level stakes)
ROI +18.5%



System 4

The results have been as follows:

Bets 609
Wins 237
Strike Rate 38.9%
Profit +£1241.00 (to £10 level stakes)
ROI +20.4%