SYSTEM BETTING REVISITED 2008

by David Renham

 

Last year I discussed a variety of systems that had proved profitable both in National Hunt racing and on the flat. For this article I am going to share with readers some all weather systems that have proved profitable in the past few years.

 

System punters use a very methodical approach to their betting, with most sticking to a very rigid set of rules. The advantages of using racing systems is that selection methods are generally straight-forward and more importantly bets do not take too much time to generate. No long drawn out form study, no emotion ….. sounds simple! Of course the drawback of systems is that they lack flexibility and most profitable ones have a very short shelf-life. Most punters are in one camp or the other – very pro systems, or very anti. Hopefully this article may see a few people switch camps! 

 

The systems discussed have been tested from the year 2000 to the end of 2007. Of course that is no guarantee they will work in the future, but some will and hopefully the following systems will be worth following for a few years to come. All profits are shown to £1 win stakes:

 

System 1 – Penalty Carriers

 

Many successful flat systems of recent years have been based on penalty carriers. Indeed in an article last year I mentioned that if you backed all penalty carriers on the flat “blind” you would have lost just 8% of your money so penalty carriers are worth close scrutiny.

 

1.       All Weather courses only

2.       Penalty carriers

3.       Males only

4.       Racing Post Forecast price 2/1 or bigger

5.       Horse age 3 to 5

 

As with all the best systems the rules are fairly simple. I discussed last week the advantage a male runner has over a female one on the all weather so that rule is no surprise. The price stipulation is looking for more value selections. Horses priced under 2/1 tend to offer little value as the market is well covered there. The reason for using “forecast price” in this system rather than “starting price” is one that most system punters tend to use. Using a forecast price means that the system punter can place his/her bet at any time of the day. Using starting price as a factor can be difficult, as you can never be 100% sure about what the final starting price will be. In terms of age 2yos have a poor record when carrying a penalty on both the all weather and on turf and hence they are not included. Horses aged 6 or older tend to be on the downgrade and they are also omitted.

 

 The results for the penalty carrier system have been as follows:

 

Qualifiers	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	% Profit
766	175	22.9%	+£131.33	+17.1%

 

The system has seen 7 winning years out of 8, and had a good year in 2007 with 34 wins from 132 (strike rate 25.8%) for a profit of £27.13 (ROI +20.6%). Hence it seems that this system should continue to perform well in the near future.

 

System 2 – Fit and in form system

 

As stated in previous articles, flat horses returning to the track after a short break has been a key factor in many successful flat systems. Indeed the shorter the break, the better and the second system demonstrates this well. The rules are as follows:

 

1.       All Weather courses only

2.      Last run – 3 days or less

3.      Position LTO 1st, 2nd or 3rd

4.      Males only

5.      Horse age 3 to 5

6.       Race distance 1 mile 2 furlongs or less

 

This system is attempting to pinpoint fit horses that the recent form suggests have a reasonable chance of winning. Once again the male rule and the age rule have been used. The distance rule is a logical one as horses racing again after a short break seem to recover better when racing over shorter distances.

 

The overall results of the system are as follows:

 

Qualifiers	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	% Profit
396	109	27.5%	+£81.55	+20.6%

 

The “fit and fancied system” has seen 8 winning seasons out of 8, so it has shown excellence consistency. Indeed, I did look back to 1997 for this system and ’97, ’98 and ’99 also were profitable years. This looks a system that is worth following for a few years yet.

 

System 3 – Short priced system

 

Many systems use factors that are well known to betting public and bookmakers alike. For example, good recent form, a high position in the betting, winning form at the distance, etc, etc. However, although it is fairly straight-forward to produce a system that has a good strike rate, it is not so easy to find one that is consistently profitable. I have already mentioned that in general there is limited value in backing short priced horses, but this system is one that has made a profit. Here is the system:

 

1.       All Weather courses only

2.      Maiden races

3.       Forecast price 15/8 or shorter

4.       Males only

5.       Race distance 7f or more

6.       Raced previously at least once

 

There are two rules I feel I need to explain. Firstly, maidens are often made up out of fairly inexperienced horses, and hence a poor start can spell disaster over sprint trips. Therefore I have left out 5 and 6f races for that reason. Secondly, horses that are making their debuts are very difficult to assess and hence they are best avoided at short prices. The results have been as follows:

 

Qualifiers	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	% Profit
528	275	52.1%	+£31.06	+5.9%

 

An impressive strike rate in excess of 50%, and 6 of the 8 years showed a profit. Overall profits are only modest though, but that is to be expected with well fancied selections. This type of system may be worth using with a staking plan, rather than purely level stakes as the high strike rate indicates that losing runs will be fairly short.

 

To finish this piece I am going to look at two trainer systems that have shown excellent returns in recent years.

 

System 4 – Michael Jarvis 2/3yos

 

Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer who must be kept on the right side of when running horses on the all weather. Here is a simple system that has produced 8 consecutive years of profit.

 

1.       All Weather courses only

2.       Trainer – Michael Jarvis

3.       Horse aged 2 or 3 competing against their own age group

4.       Class 4 or lower

 

The results have been as follows:

 

Qualifiers	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	% Profit
197	47	23.9%	+£73.95	+37.5%

 

A strike rate of 1 in 4 is excellent for a trainer based system, especially with no price stipulation. For the record this system has made profits in both handicaps and non handicaps, but his record has been best in non handicaps. His runners do especially well at Lingfield so his runners merit extreme close scrutiny there.

 

System 5 – Terry Mills with fancied runners

 

Terry Mills is an underrated trainer and his all weather runners do especially well. The following system has shown profits in 6 of the last 8 years; with both losing years showing minimal loses. The system is as follows:

 

1.       All Weather courses only

2.       Trainer – Terry Mills

3.       Racing Post forecast 1st, 2nd or 3rd favourite

4.       Males only

4.       Class 4 or lower

 

The results have been as follows:

 

Qualifiers	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	% Profit
159	60	37.7%	+£67.96	+42.7%

 

The most impressive part of this system is that he has shown profits in all different race types – handicaps, claimers, sellers, maidens and conditions races. Hence take note when Terry Mills has a fancied runner according to the forecast prices.

 

The main purpose of this article is not to convert you all to system betting, but I hope I have illustrated that on the all weather there are systems that potentially can produce decent profits.