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Switching Stables To A New Trainer On The Flat


Switching Stables To A New Trainer On The Flat

I recently looked at National Hunt runners who had switched stables and were having their first run for a new trainer – this time I am looking at flat runners who have switched stables and are having his/her first run for a new trainer.

The question as before is – what effect does a change of stables have on this first run for a new trainer?

I have gathered data for flat racing from 2005 to the end of the turf flat season in 2011. Here are the overall figures:

All Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

13513

1023

7.6

-£3558.63

-26.3

As you can see, a change of stables can hardly be described as a ‘positive’. Losses of around 26 pence in the £ are testament to that. With this starting point, we will clearly be struggling to find many positive slants. However, finding negative stats has value, not just from a potential laying perspective, but also for elimination purposes when you are analysing a race. Time to do some more digging:

Age – let us see if age makes any difference:

Age

Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

2

963

78

8.1

-£436.14

-45.3

3

4571

346

7.6

-£1281.23

-28.0

4

3737

272

7.3

-£1080.77

-28.9

5

1878

161

8.6

-£251.97

-13.4

6

1116

85

7.6

-£287.95

-25.8

7

606

48

7.9

-£69.22

-11.4

8

366

20

5.5

-£142.75

-39.0

9

161

9

5.6

+£62.40

+38.8

10

75

3

4.0

-£40.00

-53.3

11

29

1

3.4

-£20.00

-69.0

12

8

0

0.0

-£8.00

-100.0

13

1

0

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

14

2

0

0.0

-£2.00

-100.0

Losses for 2yos are quite steep at around 45 pence in the £, especially considering their strike rate is higher than the average.

2yos – race type - let us look at the 2yo runners in more detail by looking at their breakdown by race-type:

2yo Race type

Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Maiden

359

23

6.4

-£204.82

-57.1

Nursery

320

17

5.3

-£206.50

-64.5

Seller

107

16

15.0

-£33.09

-30.9

Claimer

97

14

14.4

-£38.21

-39.4

Novices

37

4

10.8

+£34.40

+93.0

Listed Race

12

3

25.0

+£36.50

+304.2

Group 2

10

0

0.0

-£10.00

-100.0

Group 3

7

1

14.3

-£4.00

-57.1

Other

14

0

0.0

-£14.00

-100.0

Nurseries and maidens provide most of the 2yo runners and the returns are very poor in both race types. These runners look worth avoiding – almost at all costs.

Market rank - Moving away from age, let us go back to the overall figures and breakdown the results by market position.

Market rank

Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Favourite

846

268

31.7

-£14.34

-1.7

2nd favourite

842

172

20.4

-£9.45

-1.1

3rd favourite

963

132

13.7

-£106.34

-11.0

4th in betting

1104

88

8.0

-£337.00

-30.5

5th in betting

1219

90

7.4

-£285.00

-23.4

6th in betting

1332

64

4.8

-£465.00

-34.9

7th in betting

1342

65

4.8

-£275.50

-20.5

8th in betting

1278

46

3.6

-£383.00

-30.0

9th in betting

1067

28

2.6

-£419.00

-39.3

10th in betting

980

26

2.7

-£273.00

-27.9

11th in betting

816

12

1.5

-£427.00

-52.3

12th in betting

635

18

2.8

-£49.00

-7.7

13th in betting

417

4

1.0

-£228.00

-54.7

14th in betting

310

10

3.2

+£75.00

+24.2

15th+ in betting

362

0

0.0

-£362.00

-100.0

The market seems to be an excellent guide with favourites and second favourites losing less than 2 pence in the £ respectively. Hence horses having their first run for a new trainer that start first or second favourite do merit close scrutiny.

Position LTO – next stop is to see what difference their LTO placing made:

Position LTO

Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

First

1369

157

11.5

-£449.56

-32.8

Second

1102

146

13.2

-£266.94

-24.2

Third

954

108

11.3

-£244.93

-25.7

Fourth

999

77

7.7

-£295.73

-29.6

Fifth

1094

100

9.1

-£204.69

-18.7

Sixth

1170

79

6.8

-£331.12

-28.3

Seventh

1081

62

5.7

-£357.48

-33.1

Eighth or worse

5742

293

5.1

-£1414.18

-24.6

Essentially the LTO performance looks fairly meaningless – I personally feel there may be mileage in laying LTO winners, but I will need to look in more detail at the prices of these runners before I can be sure it is a viable idea.

Days since last run – onto fitness, or a measure of fitness at least. Here are the stats splitting them by days since their last run:

Days since last run

Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1-10

443

78

17.6

-£18.27

-4.1

11-30

2125

200

9.4

-£514.72

-24.2

31-60

2012

179

8.9

-£397.09

-19.7

61-90

1266

112

8.8

-£145.15

-11.5

91-240

4411

286

6.5

-£1140.52

-25.9

241+

3254

167

5.1

-£1348.88

-41.5

Horses returning within 10 days have done pretty well. They clearly perform well above the norm for stable switchers. Indeed if you combine these quick returners with a market rank of favourite or second favourite, you would have had 54 winners from 141 qualifiers (SR 38.3%) for an impressive profit of £65.73 (ROI +46.6%).

Trainers – finally let us look at the trainers in question. These stats should offer us a selection of trainers with positive returns. I have chosen to include trainers with at least 30 runners, and the table is ordered by strike rate:

Trainer

Runners

Wins

Strike rate%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Cumani, L M

43

13

30.2

+£22.30

+51.9

Baker, George

69

18

26.1

-£9.29

-13.5

Elsworth, D R C

29

7

24.1

+£31.25

+107.8

Suroor, Saeed Bin

138

33

23.9

-£24.67

-17.9

Botti, M

57

13

22.8

+£55.25

+96.9

Johnston, M

53

12

22.6

+£13.85

+26.1

Barron, T D

38

8

21.1

+£20.25

+53.3

Best, Jim

40

8

20.0

+£19.88

+49.7

Haggas, W J

30

6

20.0

+£0.05

+0.2

Ivory, D K

43

7

16.3

+£43.00

+100.0

Simcock, D M

64

10

15.6

+£17.60

+27.5

Vaughan, E F

32

5

15.6

+£16.20

+50.6

O’ Meara, D

46

7

15.2

+£8.50

+18.5

Akehurst, J

33

5

15.2

+£34.75

+105.3

Dow, S

34

5

14.7

+£5.76

+16.9

Evans, P D

199

29

14.6

-£41.37

-20.8

Burke, Mrs K

35

5

14.3

-£15.50

-44.3

Fahey, R A

163

23

14.1

-£31.16

-19.1

Boyle, J R

114

16

14.0

-£56.64

-49.7

Ellison, B

75

10

13.3

-£15.50

-20.7

Haynes, A B

61

8

13.1

+£34.25

+56.1

Mongan, Mrs L J

31

4

12.9

+£1.50

+4.8

Guest, Rae

47

6

12.8

+£6.33

+13.5

Goldie, J S

63

8

12.7

+£32.50

+51.6

Curtis, R

32

4

12.5

+£61.50

+192.2

McMahon, E S

41

5

12.2

+£7.38

+18.0

Ryan, K A

142

17

12.0

-£2.63

-1.9

Chapple-Hyam, Jane

87

10

11.5

+£9.75

+11.2

Curran, S

35

4

11.4

+£10.33

+29.5

Dods, M

35

4

11.4

+£33.50

+95.7

ONeill, E J

35

4

11.4

-£9.25

-26.4

Perratt, Miss L A

88

10

11.4

+£18.50

+21.0

Moore, G L

135

15

11.1

-£14.37

-10.6

Dascombe, Tom

82

9

11.0

-£24.75

-30.2

Pitt, T J

47

5

10.6

-£25.25

-53.7

Appleby, M

38

4

10.5

+£119.00

+313.2

Kelleway, Miss Gay

105

11

10.5

-£17.75

-16.9

Alston, E J

48

5

10.4

-£14.00

-29.2

Liddiard, Stef

58

6

10.3

+£17.50

+30.2

Burke, K R

39

4

10.3

-£12.37

-31.7

Hills, Charles

59

6

10.2

-£34.02

-57.7

Pears, Ollie

69

7

10.1

-£33.02

-47.9

Pearce, J

70

7

10.0

-£33.50

-47.9

Bell, M L W

30

3

10.0

-£2.62

-8.7

Smith, V

30

3

10.0

-£7.00

-23.3

Williams, Ian

121

12

9.9

-£7.05

-5.8

Williams, S C

51

5

9.8

-£19.18

-37.6

Jarvis, A P

41

4

9.8

-£12.50

-30.5

Bravery, G C

31

3

9.7

+£15.00

+48.4

Wallace, M J

31

3

9.7

-£6.75

-21.8

Butler, P

44

4

9.1

-£25.25

-57.4

Burke, K J

33

3

9.1

+£32.00

+97.0

West, Miss Sheena

33

3

9.1

-£1.50

-4.5

Semple, I

78

7

9.0

+£34.50

+44.2

Blockley, P A

79

7

8.9

-£21.75

-27.5

Wigham, M

80

7

8.8

-£53.62

-67.0

Nicholls, D

218

19

8.7

-£13.59

-6.2

Harris, R A

196

17

8.7

-£37.54

-19.2

Beckett, R M

48

4

8.3

-£18.50

-38.5

Smart, B

36

3

8.3

-£8.59

-23.9

Carr, Mrs R A

73

6

8.2

-£5.00

-6.8

Littmoden, N P

49

4

8.2

+£9.00

+18.4

Carroll, A W

123

10

8.1

-£49.25

-40.0

Wainwright, J S

37

3

8.1

+£21.00

+56.8

Given, J G

50

4

8.0

+£35.67

+71.3

Dore, C R

79

6

7.6

-£54.80

-69.4

Hales, A M

56

4

7.1

-£26.50

-47.3

McEntee, P S

42

3

7.1

-£5.00

-11.9

Howling, P

87

6

6.9

-£56.29

-64.7

Berry, A

59

4

6.8

-£22.50

-38.1

Newcombe, A G

46

3

6.5

-£20.00

-43.5

Bailey, A

31

2

6.5

-£8.00

-25.8

Brotherton, R

31

2

6.5

-£20.50

-66.1

Oshea, J G M

31

2

6.5

-£14.00

-45.2

Carroll, D

94

6

6.4

-£58.17

-61.9

Attwater, M J

63

4

6.3

-£33.67

-53.4

Gask, J R

63

4

6.3

-£44.48

-70.6

Chapman, M C

32

2

6.3

-£17.25

-53.9

OReilly, J

32

2

6.3

-£20.00

-62.5

Easterby, M W

81

5

6.2

-£43.00

-53.1

Price, R J

49

3

6.1

+£17.00

+34.7

Feilden, Miss J

33

2

6.1

-£21.00

-63.6

Glover, J A

33

2

6.1

-£2.00

-6.1

Mackie, J

33

2

6.1

-£16.00

-48.5

Prodromou, G

33

2

6.1

+£2.00

+6.1

Shaw, D

102

6

5.9

-£52.75

-51.7

Harris, John A

68

4

5.9

+£13.00

+19.1

Llewellyn, B J

34

2

5.9

-£8.00

-23.5

Mullineaux, M

34

2

5.9

+£23.00

+67.6

Unett, J W

34

2

5.9

+£18.00

+52.9

Midgley, P T

104

6

5.8

-£58.87

-56.6

Meehan, B J

35

2

5.7

-£8.00

-22.9

Bradley, J M

80

4

5.0

+£38.00

+47.5

Swinbank, G A

60

3

5.0

-£34.00

-56.7

Harker, G A

40

2

5.0

-£28.00

-70.0

Millman, B R

41

2

4.9

-£31.00

-75.6

McCabe, A J

105

5

4.8

-£51.00

-48.6

Ryan, J

44

2

4.5

-£20.00

-45.5

Swinburn, W R

45

2

4.4

-£11.00

-24.4

Tinkler, N

45

2

4.4

-£21.00

-46.7

Dwyer, C A

46

2

4.3

-£37.50

-81.5

Parr, S

47

2

4.3

-£22.00

-46.8

Guest, R C

96

4

4.2

-£61.33

-63.9

Wilson, N

74

3

4.1

-£48.00

-64.9

Quinlan, M G

56

2

3.6

-£32.00

-57.1

Johnson, B R

30

1

3.3

-£26.50

-88.3

Wall, C F

30

1

3.3

-£22.00

-73.3

Quinn, J J

62

2

3.2

-£33.50

-54.0

McInnes, I W

95

3

3.2

-£58.00

-61.1

Burchell, D

32

1

3.1

+£2.00

+6.3

Gallagher, J

33

1

3.0

-£28.50

-86.4

Foster, A G

34

1

2.9

-£19.00

-55.9

Hollinshead, R

34

1

2.9

-£29.50

-86.8

Grayson, Peter

74

2

2.7

-£50.00

-67.6

Teague, C J

37

1

2.7

-£22.00

-59.5

Powell, B G

75

2

2.7

-£53.67

-71.6

Weymes, J R

38

1

2.6

+£3.00

+7.9

Clement, T T

40

1

2.5

-£32.00

-80.0

Morris, Patrick

41

1

2.4

-£35.50

-86.6

Baugh, B P J

43

1

2.3

-£2.00

-4.7

Bridger, J J

43

1

2.3

-£36.00

-83.7

Brisbourne, W M

98

2

2.0

-£72.50

-74.0

Thompson, D W

49

1

2.0

-£34.00

-69.4

Balding, J

48

0

0.0

-£48.00

-100.0

Lidderdale, A J

48

0

0.0

-£48.00

-100.0

Moore, J S

43

0

0.0

-£43.00

-100.0

Waggott, Miss Tracy

43

0

0.0

-£43.00

-100.0

Dunnett, Mrs C A

39

0

0.0

-£39.00

-100.0

Chamberlain, A J

38

0

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

Squance, M D

38

0

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

Creighton, E J

36

0

0.0

-£36.00

-100.0

Barr, R E

35

0

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

Hiatt, P W

35

0

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

Murphy, P G

35

0

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

Rowland, Miss M E

34

0

0.0

-£34.00

-100.0

Davison, Miss Z C

33

0

0.0

-£33.00

-100.0

Barker, D W

32

0

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

George, Karen

32

0

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

Musson, W J

32

0

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

Doyle, Ms J S

31

0

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

Best, J R

30

0

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

Bosley, M R

30

0

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

Luca Cumani tops the list with an impressive overall set of figures. Digging a bit deeper he has been consistent year in year out, albeit from small yearly samples. Here are some other Cumani stats worth sharing:

- Favourites have been 6 from 9 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £8.80 (ROI +97.8%);

- 3yos have won 7 of their 16 starts (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £15.92 (ROI +99.5%);

- Horses that are still maidens have won 7 from 14 (SR 50%) for a profit of £21.32 (ROI +152.3%).

George Baker shows an overall loss despite being second in terms of strike rate. However, there are two areas to note. Firstly, in all weather races he has produced 14 wins from 39 (SR 35.9%) for a profit of £10.06 (ROI +25.8%); secondly when his runners have started favourite his record reads 13 wins from 21 (SR 61.9%) for a profit of £8.96 (ROI +42.7%).

Saeed Bin Suroor picks up several new runners each year and he also has a good record when saddling the favourite - 24 wins from 55 (SR 43.6%) for a profit of £11.88 (ROI +21.6%).

The final trainer I want to mention is Mark Johnston. His 3yos have an excellent record thanks to 10 wins from 34 (SR 29.4%) showing a healthy profit of £23.10 (ROI +67.9%). He has also done well when picking up horses from Saeed Bin Suroor – 5 wins from 17 (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £12.60 (ROI +74.1%).








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