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Switching Stables To A New Trainer On The Flat
Switching Stables To A New Trainer On The Flat
I recently looked at National Hunt runners who had switched stables and were having their first run for a new trainer – this time I am looking at flat runners who have switched stables and are having his/her first run for a new trainer.
The question as before is – what effect does a change of stables have on this first run for a new trainer?
I have gathered data for flat racing from 2005 to the end of the turf flat season in 2011. Here are the overall figures:
|
All Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
13513
|
1023
|
7.6
|
-£3558.63
|
-26.3
|
As you can see, a change of stables can hardly be described as a ‘positive’. Losses of around 26 pence in the £ are testament to that. With this starting point, we will clearly be struggling to find many positive slants. However, finding negative stats has value, not just from a potential laying perspective, but also for elimination purposes when you are analysing a race. Time to do some more digging:
Age – let us see if age makes any difference:
|
Age
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
2
|
963
|
78
|
8.1
|
-£436.14
|
-45.3
|
|
3
|
4571
|
346
|
7.6
|
-£1281.23
|
-28.0
|
|
4
|
3737
|
272
|
7.3
|
-£1080.77
|
-28.9
|
|
5
|
1878
|
161
|
8.6
|
-£251.97
|
-13.4
|
|
6
|
1116
|
85
|
7.6
|
-£287.95
|
-25.8
|
|
7
|
606
|
48
|
7.9
|
-£69.22
|
-11.4
|
|
8
|
366
|
20
|
5.5
|
-£142.75
|
-39.0
|
|
9
|
161
|
9
|
5.6
|
+£62.40
|
+38.8
|
|
10
|
75
|
3
|
4.0
|
-£40.00
|
-53.3
|
|
11
|
29
|
1
|
3.4
|
-£20.00
|
-69.0
|
|
12
|
8
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£8.00
|
-100.0
|
|
13
|
1
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£1.00
|
-100.0
|
|
14
|
2
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£2.00
|
-100.0
|
Losses for 2yos are quite steep at around 45 pence in the £, especially considering their strike rate is higher than the average.
2yos – race type - let us look at the 2yo runners in more detail by looking at their breakdown by race-type:
|
2yo Race type
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
Maiden
|
359
|
23
|
6.4
|
-£204.82
|
-57.1
|
|
Nursery
|
320
|
17
|
5.3
|
-£206.50
|
-64.5
|
|
Seller
|
107
|
16
|
15.0
|
-£33.09
|
-30.9
|
|
Claimer
|
97
|
14
|
14.4
|
-£38.21
|
-39.4
|
|
Novices
|
37
|
4
|
10.8
|
+£34.40
|
+93.0
|
|
Listed Race
|
12
|
3
|
25.0
|
+£36.50
|
+304.2
|
|
Group 2
|
10
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£10.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Group 3
|
7
|
1
|
14.3
|
-£4.00
|
-57.1
|
|
Other
|
14
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£14.00
|
-100.0
|
Nurseries and maidens provide most of the 2yo runners and the returns are very poor in both race types. These runners look worth avoiding – almost at all costs.
Market rank - Moving away from age, let us go back to the overall figures and breakdown the results by market position.
|
Market rank
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
Favourite
|
846
|
268
|
31.7
|
-£14.34
|
-1.7
|
|
2nd favourite
|
842
|
172
|
20.4
|
-£9.45
|
-1.1
|
|
3rd favourite
|
963
|
132
|
13.7
|
-£106.34
|
-11.0
|
|
4th in betting
|
1104
|
88
|
8.0
|
-£337.00
|
-30.5
|
|
5th in betting
|
1219
|
90
|
7.4
|
-£285.00
|
-23.4
|
|
6th in betting
|
1332
|
64
|
4.8
|
-£465.00
|
-34.9
|
|
7th in betting
|
1342
|
65
|
4.8
|
-£275.50
|
-20.5
|
|
8th in betting
|
1278
|
46
|
3.6
|
-£383.00
|
-30.0
|
|
9th in betting
|
1067
|
28
|
2.6
|
-£419.00
|
-39.3
|
|
10th in betting
|
980
|
26
|
2.7
|
-£273.00
|
-27.9
|
|
11th in betting
|
816
|
12
|
1.5
|
-£427.00
|
-52.3
|
|
12th in betting
|
635
|
18
|
2.8
|
-£49.00
|
-7.7
|
|
13th in betting
|
417
|
4
|
1.0
|
-£228.00
|
-54.7
|
|
14th in betting
|
310
|
10
|
3.2
|
+£75.00
|
+24.2
|
|
15th+ in betting
|
362
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£362.00
|
-100.0
|
The market seems to be an excellent guide with favourites and second favourites losing less than 2 pence in the £ respectively. Hence horses having their first run for a new trainer that start first or second favourite do merit close scrutiny.
Position LTO – next stop is to see what difference their LTO placing made:
|
Position LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
First
|
1369
|
157
|
11.5
|
-£449.56
|
-32.8
|
|
Second
|
1102
|
146
|
13.2
|
-£266.94
|
-24.2
|
|
Third
|
954
|
108
|
11.3
|
-£244.93
|
-25.7
|
|
Fourth
|
999
|
77
|
7.7
|
-£295.73
|
-29.6
|
|
Fifth
|
1094
|
100
|
9.1
|
-£204.69
|
-18.7
|
|
Sixth
|
1170
|
79
|
6.8
|
-£331.12
|
-28.3
|
|
Seventh
|
1081
|
62
|
5.7
|
-£357.48
|
-33.1
|
|
Eighth or worse
|
5742
|
293
|
5.1
|
-£1414.18
|
-24.6
|
Essentially the LTO performance looks fairly meaningless – I personally feel there may be mileage in laying LTO winners, but I will need to look in more detail at the prices of these runners before I can be sure it is a viable idea.
Days since last run – onto fitness, or a measure of fitness at least. Here are the stats splitting them by days since their last run:
|
Days since last run
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
1-10
|
443
|
78
|
17.6
|
-£18.27
|
-4.1
|
|
11-30
|
2125
|
200
|
9.4
|
-£514.72
|
-24.2
|
|
31-60
|
2012
|
179
|
8.9
|
-£397.09
|
-19.7
|
|
61-90
|
1266
|
112
|
8.8
|
-£145.15
|
-11.5
|
|
91-240
|
4411
|
286
|
6.5
|
-£1140.52
|
-25.9
|
|
241+
|
3254
|
167
|
5.1
|
-£1348.88
|
-41.5
|
Horses returning within 10 days have done pretty well. They clearly perform well above the norm for stable switchers. Indeed if you combine these quick returners with a market rank of favourite or second favourite, you would have had 54 winners from 141 qualifiers (SR 38.3%) for an impressive profit of £65.73 (ROI +46.6%).
Trainers – finally let us look at the trainers in question. These stats should offer us a selection of trainers with positive returns. I have chosen to include trainers with at least 30 runners, and the table is ordered by strike rate:
|
Trainer
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
Strike rate%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
|
Cumani, L M
|
43
|
13
|
30.2
|
+£22.30
|
+51.9
|
|
Baker, George
|
69
|
18
|
26.1
|
-£9.29
|
-13.5
|
|
Elsworth, D R C
|
29
|
7
|
24.1
|
+£31.25
|
+107.8
|
|
Suroor, Saeed Bin
|
138
|
33
|
23.9
|
-£24.67
|
-17.9
|
|
Botti, M
|
57
|
13
|
22.8
|
+£55.25
|
+96.9
|
|
Johnston, M
|
53
|
12
|
22.6
|
+£13.85
|
+26.1
|
|
Barron, T D
|
38
|
8
|
21.1
|
+£20.25
|
+53.3
|
|
Best, Jim
|
40
|
8
|
20.0
|
+£19.88
|
+49.7
|
|
Haggas, W J
|
30
|
6
|
20.0
|
+£0.05
|
+0.2
|
|
Ivory, D K
|
43
|
7
|
16.3
|
+£43.00
|
+100.0
|
|
Simcock, D M
|
64
|
10
|
15.6
|
+£17.60
|
+27.5
|
|
Vaughan, E F
|
32
|
5
|
15.6
|
+£16.20
|
+50.6
|
|
O’ Meara, D
|
46
|
7
|
15.2
|
+£8.50
|
+18.5
|
|
Akehurst, J
|
33
|
5
|
15.2
|
+£34.75
|
+105.3
|
|
Dow, S
|
34
|
5
|
14.7
|
+£5.76
|
+16.9
|
|
Evans, P D
|
199
|
29
|
14.6
|
-£41.37
|
-20.8
|
|
Burke, Mrs K
|
35
|
5
|
14.3
|
-£15.50
|
-44.3
|
|
Fahey, R A
|
163
|
23
|
14.1
|
-£31.16
|
-19.1
|
|
Boyle, J R
|
114
|
16
|
14.0
|
-£56.64
|
-49.7
|
|
Ellison, B
|
75
|
10
|
13.3
|
-£15.50
|
-20.7
|
|
Haynes, A B
|
61
|
8
|
13.1
|
+£34.25
|
+56.1
|
|
Mongan, Mrs L J
|
31
|
4
|
12.9
|
+£1.50
|
+4.8
|
|
Guest, Rae
|
47
|
6
|
12.8
|
+£6.33
|
+13.5
|
|
Goldie, J S
|
63
|
8
|
12.7
|
+£32.50
|
+51.6
|
|
Curtis, R
|
32
|
4
|
12.5
|
+£61.50
|
+192.2
|
|
McMahon, E S
|
41
|
5
|
12.2
|
+£7.38
|
+18.0
|
|
Ryan, K A
|
142
|
17
|
12.0
|
-£2.63
|
-1.9
|
|
Chapple-Hyam, Jane
|
87
|
10
|
11.5
|
+£9.75
|
+11.2
|
|
Curran, S
|
35
|
4
|
11.4
|
+£10.33
|
+29.5
|
|
Dods, M
|
35
|
4
|
11.4
|
+£33.50
|
+95.7
|
|
ONeill, E J
|
35
|
4
|
11.4
|
-£9.25
|
-26.4
|
|
Perratt, Miss L A
|
88
|
10
|
11.4
|
+£18.50
|
+21.0
|
|
Moore, G L
|
135
|
15
|
11.1
|
-£14.37
|
-10.6
|
|
Dascombe, Tom
|
82
|
9
|
11.0
|
-£24.75
|
-30.2
|
|
Pitt, T J
|
47
|
5
|
10.6
|
-£25.25
|
-53.7
|
|
Appleby, M
|
38
|
4
|
10.5
|
+£119.00
|
+313.2
|
|
Kelleway, Miss Gay
|
105
|
11
|
10.5
|
-£17.75
|
-16.9
|
|
Alston, E J
|
48
|
5
|
10.4
|
-£14.00
|
-29.2
|
|
Liddiard, Stef
|
58
|
6
|
10.3
|
+£17.50
|
+30.2
|
|
Burke, K R
|
39
|
4
|
10.3
|
-£12.37
|
-31.7
|
|
Hills, Charles
|
59
|
6
|
10.2
|
-£34.02
|
-57.7
|
|
Pears, Ollie
|
69
|
7
|
10.1
|
-£33.02
|
-47.9
|
|
Pearce, J
|
70
|
7
|
10.0
|
-£33.50
|
-47.9
|
|
Bell, M L W
|
30
|
3
|
10.0
|
-£2.62
|
-8.7
|
|
Smith, V
|
30
|
3
|
10.0
|
-£7.00
|
-23.3
|
|
Williams, Ian
|
121
|
12
|
9.9
|
-£7.05
|
-5.8
|
|
Williams, S C
|
51
|
5
|
9.8
|
-£19.18
|
-37.6
|
|
Jarvis, A P
|
41
|
4
|
9.8
|
-£12.50
|
-30.5
|
|
Bravery, G C
|
31
|
3
|
9.7
|
+£15.00
|
+48.4
|
|
Wallace, M J
|
31
|
3
|
9.7
|
-£6.75
|
-21.8
|
|
Butler, P
|
44
|
4
|
9.1
|
-£25.25
|
-57.4
|
|
Burke, K J
|
33
|
3
|
9.1
|
+£32.00
|
+97.0
|
|
West, Miss Sheena
|
33
|
3
|
9.1
|
-£1.50
|
-4.5
|
|
Semple, I
|
78
|
7
|
9.0
|
+£34.50
|
+44.2
|
|
Blockley, P A
|
79
|
7
|
8.9
|
-£21.75
|
-27.5
|
|
Wigham, M
|
80
|
7
|
8.8
|
-£53.62
|
-67.0
|
|
Nicholls, D
|
218
|
19
|
8.7
|
-£13.59
|
-6.2
|
|
Harris, R A
|
196
|
17
|
8.7
|
-£37.54
|
-19.2
|
|
Beckett, R M
|
48
|
4
|
8.3
|
-£18.50
|
-38.5
|
|
Smart, B
|
36
|
3
|
8.3
|
-£8.59
|
-23.9
|
|
Carr, Mrs R A
|
73
|
6
|
8.2
|
-£5.00
|
-6.8
|
|
Littmoden, N P
|
49
|
4
|
8.2
|
+£9.00
|
+18.4
|
|
Carroll, A W
|
123
|
10
|
8.1
|
-£49.25
|
-40.0
|
|
Wainwright, J S
|
37
|
3
|
8.1
|
+£21.00
|
+56.8
|
|
Given, J G
|
50
|
4
|
8.0
|
+£35.67
|
+71.3
|
|
Dore, C R
|
79
|
6
|
7.6
|
-£54.80
|
-69.4
|
|
Hales, A M
|
56
|
4
|
7.1
|
-£26.50
|
-47.3
|
|
McEntee, P S
|
42
|
3
|
7.1
|
-£5.00
|
-11.9
|
|
Howling, P
|
87
|
6
|
6.9
|
-£56.29
|
-64.7
|
|
Berry, A
|
59
|
4
|
6.8
|
-£22.50
|
-38.1
|
|
Newcombe, A G
|
46
|
3
|
6.5
|
-£20.00
|
-43.5
|
|
Bailey, A
|
31
|
2
|
6.5
|
-£8.00
|
-25.8
|
|
Brotherton, R
|
31
|
2
|
6.5
|
-£20.50
|
-66.1
|
|
Oshea, J G M
|
31
|
2
|
6.5
|
-£14.00
|
-45.2
|
|
Carroll, D
|
94
|
6
|
6.4
|
-£58.17
|
-61.9
|
|
Attwater, M J
|
63
|
4
|
6.3
|
-£33.67
|
-53.4
|
|
Gask, J R
|
63
|
4
|
6.3
|
-£44.48
|
-70.6
|
|
Chapman, M C
|
32
|
2
|
6.3
|
-£17.25
|
-53.9
|
|
OReilly, J
|
32
|
2
|
6.3
|
-£20.00
|
-62.5
|
|
Easterby, M W
|
81
|
5
|
6.2
|
-£43.00
|
-53.1
|
|
Price, R J
|
49
|
3
|
6.1
|
+£17.00
|
+34.7
|
|
Feilden, Miss J
|
33
|
2
|
6.1
|
-£21.00
|
-63.6
|
|
Glover, J A
|
33
|
2
|
6.1
|
-£2.00
|
-6.1
|
|
Mackie, J
|
33
|
2
|
6.1
|
-£16.00
|
-48.5
|
|
Prodromou, G
|
33
|
2
|
6.1
|
+£2.00
|
+6.1
|
|
Shaw, D
|
102
|
6
|
5.9
|
-£52.75
|
-51.7
|
|
Harris, John A
|
68
|
4
|
5.9
|
+£13.00
|
+19.1
|
|
Llewellyn, B J
|
34
|
2
|
5.9
|
-£8.00
|
-23.5
|
|
Mullineaux, M
|
34
|
2
|
5.9
|
+£23.00
|
+67.6
|
|
Unett, J W
|
34
|
2
|
5.9
|
+£18.00
|
+52.9
|
|
Midgley, P T
|
104
|
6
|
5.8
|
-£58.87
|
-56.6
|
|
Meehan, B J
|
35
|
2
|
5.7
|
-£8.00
|
-22.9
|
|
Bradley, J M
|
80
|
4
|
5.0
|
+£38.00
|
+47.5
|
|
Swinbank, G A
|
60
|
3
|
5.0
|
-£34.00
|
-56.7
|
|
Harker, G A
|
40
|
2
|
5.0
|
-£28.00
|
-70.0
|
|
Millman, B R
|
41
|
2
|
4.9
|
-£31.00
|
-75.6
|
|
McCabe, A J
|
105
|
5
|
4.8
|
-£51.00
|
-48.6
|
|
Ryan, J
|
44
|
2
|
4.5
|
-£20.00
|
-45.5
|
|
Swinburn, W R
|
45
|
2
|
4.4
|
-£11.00
|
-24.4
|
|
Tinkler, N
|
45
|
2
|
4.4
|
-£21.00
|
-46.7
|
|
Dwyer, C A
|
46
|
2
|
4.3
|
-£37.50
|
-81.5
|
|
Parr, S
|
47
|
2
|
4.3
|
-£22.00
|
-46.8
|
|
Guest, R C
|
96
|
4
|
4.2
|
-£61.33
|
-63.9
|
|
Wilson, N
|
74
|
3
|
4.1
|
-£48.00
|
-64.9
|
|
Quinlan, M G
|
56
|
2
|
3.6
|
-£32.00
|
-57.1
|
|
Johnson, B R
|
30
|
1
|
3.3
|
-£26.50
|
-88.3
|
|
Wall, C F
|
30
|
1
|
3.3
|
-£22.00
|
-73.3
|
|
Quinn, J J
|
62
|
2
|
3.2
|
-£33.50
|
-54.0
|
|
McInnes, I W
|
95
|
3
|
3.2
|
-£58.00
|
-61.1
|
|
Burchell, D
|
32
|
1
|
3.1
|
+£2.00
|
+6.3
|
|
Gallagher, J
|
33
|
1
|
3.0
|
-£28.50
|
-86.4
|
|
Foster, A G
|
34
|
1
|
2.9
|
-£19.00
|
-55.9
|
|
Hollinshead, R
|
34
|
1
|
2.9
|
-£29.50
|
-86.8
|
|
Grayson, Peter
|
74
|
2
|
2.7
|
-£50.00
|
-67.6
|
|
Teague, C J
|
37
|
1
|
2.7
|
-£22.00
|
-59.5
|
|
Powell, B G
|
75
|
2
|
2.7
|
-£53.67
|
-71.6
|
|
Weymes, J R
|
38
|
1
|
2.6
|
+£3.00
|
+7.9
|
|
Clement, T T
|
40
|
1
|
2.5
|
-£32.00
|
-80.0
|
|
Morris, Patrick
|
41
|
1
|
2.4
|
-£35.50
|
-86.6
|
|
Baugh, B P J
|
43
|
1
|
2.3
|
-£2.00
|
-4.7
|
|
Bridger, J J
|
43
|
1
|
2.3
|
-£36.00
|
-83.7
|
|
Brisbourne, W M
|
98
|
2
|
2.0
|
-£72.50
|
-74.0
|
|
Thompson, D W
|
49
|
1
|
2.0
|
-£34.00
|
-69.4
|
|
Balding, J
|
48
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£48.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Lidderdale, A J
|
48
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£48.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Moore, J S
|
43
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£43.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Waggott, Miss Tracy
|
43
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£43.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Dunnett, Mrs C A
|
39
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£39.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Chamberlain, A J
|
38
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£38.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Squance, M D
|
38
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£38.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Creighton, E J
|
36
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£36.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Barr, R E
|
35
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£35.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Hiatt, P W
|
35
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£35.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Murphy, P G
|
35
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£35.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Rowland, Miss M E
|
34
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£34.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Davison, Miss Z C
|
33
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£33.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Barker, D W
|
32
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£32.00
|
-100.0
|
|
George, Karen
|
32
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£32.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Musson, W J
|
32
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£32.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Doyle, Ms J S
|
31
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£31.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Best, J R
|
30
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£30.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Bosley, M R
|
30
|
0
|
0.0
|
-£30.00
|
-100.0
|
Luca Cumani tops the list with an impressive overall set of figures. Digging a bit deeper he has been consistent year in year out, albeit from small yearly samples. Here are some other Cumani stats worth sharing:
- Favourites have been 6 from 9 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £8.80 (ROI +97.8%);
- 3yos have won 7 of their 16 starts (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £15.92 (ROI +99.5%);
- Horses that are still maidens have won 7 from 14 (SR 50%) for a profit of £21.32 (ROI +152.3%).
George Baker shows an overall loss despite being second in terms of strike rate. However, there are two areas to note. Firstly, in all weather races he has produced 14 wins from 39 (SR 35.9%) for a profit of £10.06 (ROI +25.8%); secondly when his runners have started favourite his record reads 13 wins from 21 (SR 61.9%) for a profit of £8.96 (ROI +42.7%).
Saeed Bin Suroor picks up several new runners each year and he also has a good record when saddling the favourite - 24 wins from 55 (SR 43.6%) for a profit of £11.88 (ROI +21.6%).
The final trainer I want to mention is Mark Johnston. His 3yos have an excellent record thanks to 10 wins from 34 (SR 29.4%) showing a healthy profit of £23.10 (ROI +67.9%). He has also done well when picking up horses from Saeed Bin Suroor – 5 wins from 17 (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £12.60 (ROI +74.1%).
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