I recently looked at National Hunt runners who had switched stables and were having their first run for a new trainer – this time I am looking at flat runners who have switched stables and are having his/her first run for a new trainer.
The question as before is – what effect does a change of stables have on this first run for a new trainer?
I have gathered data for flat racing from 2005 to the end of the turf flat season in 2011. Here are the overall figures:
All Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
13513
1023
7.6
-£3558.63
-26.3
As you can see, a change of stables can hardly be described as a ‘positive’. Losses of around 26 pence in the £ are testament to that. With this starting point, we will clearly be struggling to find many positive slants. However, finding negative stats has value, not just from a potential laying perspective, but also for elimination purposes when you are analysing a race. Time to do some more digging:
Age– let us see if age makes any difference:
Age
Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2
963
78
8.1
-£436.14
-45.3
3
4571
346
7.6
-£1281.23
-28.0
4
3737
272
7.3
-£1080.77
-28.9
5
1878
161
8.6
-£251.97
-13.4
6
1116
85
7.6
-£287.95
-25.8
7
606
48
7.9
-£69.22
-11.4
8
366
20
5.5
-£142.75
-39.0
9
161
9
5.6
+£62.40
+38.8
10
75
3
4.0
-£40.00
-53.3
11
29
1
3.4
-£20.00
-69.0
12
8
0
0.0
-£8.00
-100.0
13
1
0
0.0
-£1.00
-100.0
14
2
0
0.0
-£2.00
-100.0
Losses for 2yos are quite steep at around 45 pence in the £, especially considering their strike rate is higher than the average.
2yos – race type - let us look at the 2yo runners in more detail by looking at their breakdown by race-type:
2yo Race type
Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Maiden
359
23
6.4
-£204.82
-57.1
Nursery
320
17
5.3
-£206.50
-64.5
Seller
107
16
15.0
-£33.09
-30.9
Claimer
97
14
14.4
-£38.21
-39.4
Novices
37
4
10.8
+£34.40
+93.0
Listed Race
12
3
25.0
+£36.50
+304.2
Group 2
10
0
0.0
-£10.00
-100.0
Group 3
7
1
14.3
-£4.00
-57.1
Other
14
0
0.0
-£14.00
-100.0
Nurseries and maidens provide most of the 2yo runners and the returns are very poor in both race types. These runners look worth avoiding – almost at all costs.
Market rank - Moving away from age, let us go back to the overall figures and breakdown the results by market position.
Market rank
Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Favourite
846
268
31.7
-£14.34
-1.7
2nd favourite
842
172
20.4
-£9.45
-1.1
3rd favourite
963
132
13.7
-£106.34
-11.0
4th in betting
1104
88
8.0
-£337.00
-30.5
5th in betting
1219
90
7.4
-£285.00
-23.4
6th in betting
1332
64
4.8
-£465.00
-34.9
7th in betting
1342
65
4.8
-£275.50
-20.5
8th in betting
1278
46
3.6
-£383.00
-30.0
9th in betting
1067
28
2.6
-£419.00
-39.3
10th in betting
980
26
2.7
-£273.00
-27.9
11th in betting
816
12
1.5
-£427.00
-52.3
12th in betting
635
18
2.8
-£49.00
-7.7
13th in betting
417
4
1.0
-£228.00
-54.7
14th in betting
310
10
3.2
+£75.00
+24.2
15th+ in betting
362
0
0.0
-£362.00
-100.0
The market seems to be an excellent guide with favourites and second favourites losing less than 2 pence in the £ respectively. Hence horses having their first run for a new trainer that start first or second favourite do merit close scrutiny.
Position LTO – next stop is to see what difference their LTO placing made:
Position LTO
Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
First
1369
157
11.5
-£449.56
-32.8
Second
1102
146
13.2
-£266.94
-24.2
Third
954
108
11.3
-£244.93
-25.7
Fourth
999
77
7.7
-£295.73
-29.6
Fifth
1094
100
9.1
-£204.69
-18.7
Sixth
1170
79
6.8
-£331.12
-28.3
Seventh
1081
62
5.7
-£357.48
-33.1
Eighth or worse
5742
293
5.1
-£1414.18
-24.6
Essentially the LTO performance looks fairly meaningless – I personally feel there may be mileage in laying LTO winners, but I will need to look in more detail at the prices of these runners before I can be sure it is a viable idea.
Days since last run – onto fitness, or a measure of fitness at least. Here are the stats splitting them by days since their last run:
Days since last run
Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
1-10
443
78
17.6
-£18.27
-4.1
11-30
2125
200
9.4
-£514.72
-24.2
31-60
2012
179
8.9
-£397.09
-19.7
61-90
1266
112
8.8
-£145.15
-11.5
91-240
4411
286
6.5
-£1140.52
-25.9
241+
3254
167
5.1
-£1348.88
-41.5
Horses returning within 10 days have done pretty well. They clearly perform well above the norm for stable switchers. Indeed if you combine these quick returners with a market rank of favourite or second favourite, you would have had 54 winners from 141 qualifiers (SR 38.3%) for an impressive profit of £65.73 (ROI +46.6%).
Trainers – finally let us look at the trainers in question. These stats should offer us a selection of trainers with positive returns. I have chosen to include trainers with at least 30 runners, and the table is ordered by strike rate:
Trainer
Runners
Wins
Strike rate%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Cumani, L M
43
13
30.2
+£22.30
+51.9
Baker, George
69
18
26.1
-£9.29
-13.5
Elsworth, D R C
29
7
24.1
+£31.25
+107.8
Suroor, Saeed Bin
138
33
23.9
-£24.67
-17.9
Botti, M
57
13
22.8
+£55.25
+96.9
Johnston, M
53
12
22.6
+£13.85
+26.1
Barron, T D
38
8
21.1
+£20.25
+53.3
Best, Jim
40
8
20.0
+£19.88
+49.7
Haggas, W J
30
6
20.0
+£0.05
+0.2
Ivory, D K
43
7
16.3
+£43.00
+100.0
Simcock, D M
64
10
15.6
+£17.60
+27.5
Vaughan, E F
32
5
15.6
+£16.20
+50.6
O’ Meara, D
46
7
15.2
+£8.50
+18.5
Akehurst, J
33
5
15.2
+£34.75
+105.3
Dow, S
34
5
14.7
+£5.76
+16.9
Evans, P D
199
29
14.6
-£41.37
-20.8
Burke, Mrs K
35
5
14.3
-£15.50
-44.3
Fahey, R A
163
23
14.1
-£31.16
-19.1
Boyle, J R
114
16
14.0
-£56.64
-49.7
Ellison, B
75
10
13.3
-£15.50
-20.7
Haynes, A B
61
8
13.1
+£34.25
+56.1
Mongan, Mrs L J
31
4
12.9
+£1.50
+4.8
Guest, Rae
47
6
12.8
+£6.33
+13.5
Goldie, J S
63
8
12.7
+£32.50
+51.6
Curtis, R
32
4
12.5
+£61.50
+192.2
McMahon, E S
41
5
12.2
+£7.38
+18.0
Ryan, K A
142
17
12.0
-£2.63
-1.9
Chapple-Hyam, Jane
87
10
11.5
+£9.75
+11.2
Curran, S
35
4
11.4
+£10.33
+29.5
Dods, M
35
4
11.4
+£33.50
+95.7
ONeill, E J
35
4
11.4
-£9.25
-26.4
Perratt, Miss L A
88
10
11.4
+£18.50
+21.0
Moore, G L
135
15
11.1
-£14.37
-10.6
Dascombe, Tom
82
9
11.0
-£24.75
-30.2
Pitt, T J
47
5
10.6
-£25.25
-53.7
Appleby, M
38
4
10.5
+£119.00
+313.2
Kelleway, Miss Gay
105
11
10.5
-£17.75
-16.9
Alston, E J
48
5
10.4
-£14.00
-29.2
Liddiard, Stef
58
6
10.3
+£17.50
+30.2
Burke, K R
39
4
10.3
-£12.37
-31.7
Hills, Charles
59
6
10.2
-£34.02
-57.7
Pears, Ollie
69
7
10.1
-£33.02
-47.9
Pearce, J
70
7
10.0
-£33.50
-47.9
Bell, M L W
30
3
10.0
-£2.62
-8.7
Smith, V
30
3
10.0
-£7.00
-23.3
Williams, Ian
121
12
9.9
-£7.05
-5.8
Williams, S C
51
5
9.8
-£19.18
-37.6
Jarvis, A P
41
4
9.8
-£12.50
-30.5
Bravery, G C
31
3
9.7
+£15.00
+48.4
Wallace, M J
31
3
9.7
-£6.75
-21.8
Butler, P
44
4
9.1
-£25.25
-57.4
Burke, K J
33
3
9.1
+£32.00
+97.0
West, Miss Sheena
33
3
9.1
-£1.50
-4.5
Semple, I
78
7
9.0
+£34.50
+44.2
Blockley, P A
79
7
8.9
-£21.75
-27.5
Wigham, M
80
7
8.8
-£53.62
-67.0
Nicholls, D
218
19
8.7
-£13.59
-6.2
Harris, R A
196
17
8.7
-£37.54
-19.2
Beckett, R M
48
4
8.3
-£18.50
-38.5
Smart, B
36
3
8.3
-£8.59
-23.9
Carr, Mrs R A
73
6
8.2
-£5.00
-6.8
Littmoden, N P
49
4
8.2
+£9.00
+18.4
Carroll, A W
123
10
8.1
-£49.25
-40.0
Wainwright, J S
37
3
8.1
+£21.00
+56.8
Given, J G
50
4
8.0
+£35.67
+71.3
Dore, C R
79
6
7.6
-£54.80
-69.4
Hales, A M
56
4
7.1
-£26.50
-47.3
McEntee, P S
42
3
7.1
-£5.00
-11.9
Howling, P
87
6
6.9
-£56.29
-64.7
Berry, A
59
4
6.8
-£22.50
-38.1
Newcombe, A G
46
3
6.5
-£20.00
-43.5
Bailey, A
31
2
6.5
-£8.00
-25.8
Brotherton, R
31
2
6.5
-£20.50
-66.1
Oshea, J G M
31
2
6.5
-£14.00
-45.2
Carroll, D
94
6
6.4
-£58.17
-61.9
Attwater, M J
63
4
6.3
-£33.67
-53.4
Gask, J R
63
4
6.3
-£44.48
-70.6
Chapman, M C
32
2
6.3
-£17.25
-53.9
OReilly, J
32
2
6.3
-£20.00
-62.5
Easterby, M W
81
5
6.2
-£43.00
-53.1
Price, R J
49
3
6.1
+£17.00
+34.7
Feilden, Miss J
33
2
6.1
-£21.00
-63.6
Glover, J A
33
2
6.1
-£2.00
-6.1
Mackie, J
33
2
6.1
-£16.00
-48.5
Prodromou, G
33
2
6.1
+£2.00
+6.1
Shaw, D
102
6
5.9
-£52.75
-51.7
Harris, John A
68
4
5.9
+£13.00
+19.1
Llewellyn, B J
34
2
5.9
-£8.00
-23.5
Mullineaux, M
34
2
5.9
+£23.00
+67.6
Unett, J W
34
2
5.9
+£18.00
+52.9
Midgley, P T
104
6
5.8
-£58.87
-56.6
Meehan, B J
35
2
5.7
-£8.00
-22.9
Bradley, J M
80
4
5.0
+£38.00
+47.5
Swinbank, G A
60
3
5.0
-£34.00
-56.7
Harker, G A
40
2
5.0
-£28.00
-70.0
Millman, B R
41
2
4.9
-£31.00
-75.6
McCabe, A J
105
5
4.8
-£51.00
-48.6
Ryan, J
44
2
4.5
-£20.00
-45.5
Swinburn, W R
45
2
4.4
-£11.00
-24.4
Tinkler, N
45
2
4.4
-£21.00
-46.7
Dwyer, C A
46
2
4.3
-£37.50
-81.5
Parr, S
47
2
4.3
-£22.00
-46.8
Guest, R C
96
4
4.2
-£61.33
-63.9
Wilson, N
74
3
4.1
-£48.00
-64.9
Quinlan, M G
56
2
3.6
-£32.00
-57.1
Johnson, B R
30
1
3.3
-£26.50
-88.3
Wall, C F
30
1
3.3
-£22.00
-73.3
Quinn, J J
62
2
3.2
-£33.50
-54.0
McInnes, I W
95
3
3.2
-£58.00
-61.1
Burchell, D
32
1
3.1
+£2.00
+6.3
Gallagher, J
33
1
3.0
-£28.50
-86.4
Foster, A G
34
1
2.9
-£19.00
-55.9
Hollinshead, R
34
1
2.9
-£29.50
-86.8
Grayson, Peter
74
2
2.7
-£50.00
-67.6
Teague, C J
37
1
2.7
-£22.00
-59.5
Powell, B G
75
2
2.7
-£53.67
-71.6
Weymes, J R
38
1
2.6
+£3.00
+7.9
Clement, T T
40
1
2.5
-£32.00
-80.0
Morris, Patrick
41
1
2.4
-£35.50
-86.6
Baugh, B P J
43
1
2.3
-£2.00
-4.7
Bridger, J J
43
1
2.3
-£36.00
-83.7
Brisbourne, W M
98
2
2.0
-£72.50
-74.0
Thompson, D W
49
1
2.0
-£34.00
-69.4
Balding, J
48
0
0.0
-£48.00
-100.0
Lidderdale, A J
48
0
0.0
-£48.00
-100.0
Moore, J S
43
0
0.0
-£43.00
-100.0
Waggott, Miss Tracy
43
0
0.0
-£43.00
-100.0
Dunnett, Mrs C A
39
0
0.0
-£39.00
-100.0
Chamberlain, A J
38
0
0.0
-£38.00
-100.0
Squance, M D
38
0
0.0
-£38.00
-100.0
Creighton, E J
36
0
0.0
-£36.00
-100.0
Barr, R E
35
0
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
Hiatt, P W
35
0
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
Murphy, P G
35
0
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
Rowland, Miss M E
34
0
0.0
-£34.00
-100.0
Davison, Miss Z C
33
0
0.0
-£33.00
-100.0
Barker, D W
32
0
0.0
-£32.00
-100.0
George, Karen
32
0
0.0
-£32.00
-100.0
Musson, W J
32
0
0.0
-£32.00
-100.0
Doyle, Ms J S
31
0
0.0
-£31.00
-100.0
Best, J R
30
0
0.0
-£30.00
-100.0
Bosley, M R
30
0
0.0
-£30.00
-100.0
Luca Cumani tops the list with an impressive overall set of figures. Digging a bit deeper he has been consistent year in year out, albeit from small yearly samples. Here are some other Cumani stats worth sharing:
- Favourites have been 6 from 9 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £8.80 (ROI +97.8%);
- 3yos have won 7 of their 16 starts (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £15.92 (ROI +99.5%);
- Horses that are still maidens have won 7 from 14 (SR 50%) for a profit of £21.32 (ROI +152.3%).
George Baker shows an overall loss despite being second in terms of strike rate. However, there are two areas to note. Firstly, in all weather races he has produced 14 wins from 39 (SR 35.9%) for a profit of £10.06 (ROI +25.8%); secondly when his runners have started favourite his record reads 13 wins from 21 (SR 61.9%) for a profit of £8.96 (ROI +42.7%).
Saeed Bin Suroor picks up several new runners each year and he also has a good record when saddling the favourite - 24 wins from 55 (SR 43.6%) for a profit of £11.88 (ROI +21.6%).
The final trainer I want to mention is Mark Johnston. His 3yos have an excellent record thanks to 10 wins from 34 (SR 29.4%) showing a healthy profit of £23.10 (ROI +67.9%). He has also done well when picking up horses from Saeed Bin Suroor – 5 wins from 17 (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £12.60 (ROI +74.1%).
