Switching Stables To A New Trainer In National Hunt Racing

Today I am looking at National hunt runners who have switched stables and are having his/her first run for a new trainer. The question is – what effect does a change of stables have on this first run for a new trainer? I have gathered data for NH racing from 2008 to 2011. Here are the overall figures:

All Runners	Wins	Strike rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
7946	725	9.1	-£2223.12	-28.0

It seems therefore that in general, a change of stables offers layers more scope to make money than backers. Let me break these stats down further – firstly by comparing horses that raced on the flat LTO compared with those who raced in National hunt racing:

Last run	Runners	Wins	Strike rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
In NH race	6234	603	9.7%	-£1527.87	-24.5%
In flat race	1714	122	7.1%	-£695.25	-40.4%

Horses switching from the flat to National Hunt have a much poorer record – a lower strike rate and increased losses of 16p in the £.

The main focus for this article is going to be the performance of individual trainers so let us look at the flat LTO figures to begin with:

Flat run LTO - I have ordered the trainers by strike rate and only considered trainers who have had 15 runners or more:

Trainer	Runners	Wins	Strike rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Henderson, N J	44	15	34.1	+£15.34	+34.9
King, A	31	7	22.6	-£2.58	-8.3
Williams, Miss Venetia	28	5	17.9	+£4.00	+14.3
Mc Cain Jnr, D	48	8	16.7	-£2.51	-5.2
Vaughan, Tim	54	8	14.8	+£3.58	+6.6
Hobbs, P J	26	3	11.5	-£20.35	-78.3
Best, Jim	28	3	10.7	-£20.58	-73.5
Pipe, D E	43	4	9.3	-£24.50	-57.0
Williams, Evan	47	4	8.5	-£25.98	-55.3
Mann, C J	25	2	8.0	-£12.00	-48.0
O’Neill, Jonjo	25	2	8.0	+£0.00	+0.0
Russell, Miss Lucinda	18	1	5.6	-£15.00	-83.3
Grant, C	20	1	5.0	-£11.50	-57.5
Moore, G L	29	1	3.4	-£23.00	-79.3
Thorpe, Mrs A M	28	0	0.0	-£28.00	-100.0
Twiston-Davies, N A	19	0	0.0	-£19.00	-100.0
Bowen, P	15	0	0.0	-£15.00	-100.0

Very few trainers stand out from a positive perspective, but to be fair there is limited data. Nicky Henderson does extremely well, while Alan King has a decent enough record too, albeit showing a small loss. Let us move on to stable switchers who raced in a National Hunt race LTO.

NH run LTO – on to horses that raced in a National Hunt contest LTO. As there are more runners in total than for a flat run LTO, I have included trainers who have had at least 25 runners:

Trainer	Runners	Wins	Strike rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Hill, Mrs Lawney	50	16	32.0	+£139.13	+278.3
Nicholls, P F	46	14	30.4	-£9.27	-20.2
Tizzard, C L	26	7	26.9	+£66.38	+255.3
Vaughan, Tim	225	57	25.3	+£9.49	+4.2
Henderson, N J	37	9	24.3	-£9.52	-25.7
Lee, R	27	6	22.2	+£16.00	+59.3
Elliott, Gordon	32	7	21.9	-£6.02	-18.8
Humphrey, Mrs S J	28	6	21.4	+£18.33	+65.5
Best, Jim	45	9	20.0	-£13.83	-30.7
Smith, Mrs S J	25	5	20.0	+£36.75	+147.0
Williams, Evan	116	23	19.8	+£38.71	+33.4
Longsdon, C E	56	11	19.6	+£83.50	+149.1
Hobbs, P J	66	12	18.2	-£6.93	-10.5
King, A	28	5	17.9	+£0.15	+0.5
Mc Cain Jnr, D	54	9	16.7	+£3.70	+6.9
Flint, J L	37	6	16.2	+£17.50	+47.3
Twiston-Davies, N A	72	11	15.3	-£1.64	-2.3
Bowen, P	47	7	14.9	+£2.33	+5.0
Wade, J	30	4	13.3	+£24.00	+80.0
Williams, Miss Venetia	31	4	12.9	-£18.78	-60.6
Grant, C	40	5	12.5	+£24.50	+61.3
Snowden, Jamie	32	4	12.5	-£10.81	-33.8
Ford, R	25	3	12.0	-£7.50	-30.0
Russell, Miss Lucinda	42	5	11.9	+£13.50	+32.1
Leech, Mrs S	60	7	11.7	+£14.12	+23.5
Pipe, D E	103	12	11.7	-£27.10	-26.3
Williams, Ian	35	4	11.4	+£1.00	+2.9
Keighley, M	45	5	11.1	-£13.00	-28.9
Baker, George	27	3	11.1	-£17.84	-66.1
Monteith, P	27	3	11.1	+£16.00	+59.3
Harris, M F	31	3	9.7	-£7.25	-23.4
Murphy, Ferdy	37	3	8.1	-£12.00	-32.4
Todhunter, M	37	3	8.1	-£15.75	-42.6
Dobbin, Mrs R	25	2	8.0	-£12.50	-50.0
Greatrex, W J	25	2	8.0	-£15.50	-62.0
Young, Mrs L J	25	2	8.0	-£1.50	-6.0
O’ Neill, Jonjo	84	6	7.1	-£61.00	-72.6
Thorpe, Mrs A M	49	3	6.1	+£11.50	+23.5
Corcoran, L	34	2	5.9	-£2.00	-5.9
Moore, G L	34	2	5.9	-£30.02	-88.3
Bailey, Mrs Caroline	25	1	4.0	-£16.50	-66.0
Mullins, J W	26	1	3.8	-£22.25	-85.6
Mulholland, N P	33	1	3.0	-£25.00	-75.8
King, N B	39	1	2.6	-£32.50	-83.3
Hobbs, Mrs Rachel M	33	0	0.0	-£33.00	-100.0
Gordon, C	31	0	0.0	-£31.00	-100.0
Bailey, K C	27	0	0.0	-£27.00	-100.0

Lawney Hill has an amazingly impressive record – an excellent strike rate coupled with huge profits. I will expand on her overall record later in this piece.

All Races (LTO either flat or NH) – onto all runners now (30 runs to qualify):

Trainer	Runners	Wins	Strike rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Hill, Mrs Lawney	59	18	30.5	+£140.13	+237.5
Nicholls, P F	56	17	30.4	-£5.42	-9.7
Henderson, N J	81	24	29.6	+£5.82	+7.2
Tizzard, C L	31	8	25.8	+£78.38	+252.8
Vaughan, Tim	279	65	23.3	+£13.07	+4.7
Newland, Dr R D P	33	7	21.2	+£2.75	+8.3
Elliott, Gordon	34	7	20.6	-£8.02	-23.6
King, A	59	12	20.3	-£2.43	-4.1
Lee, R	35	7	20.0	+£19.00	+54.3
Humphrey, Mrs S J	30	6	20.0	+£16.33	+54.4
Curtis, Miss Rebecca	34	6	17.6	+£5.95	+17.5
Longsdon, C E	64	11	17.2	+£75.50	+118.0
Mc Cain Jnr, D	102	17	16.7	+£1.19	+1.2
Williams, Evan	163	27	16.6	+£12.73	+7.8
Best, Jim	73	12	16.4	-£34.41	-47.1
Hobbs, P J	92	15	16.3	-£27.28	-29.7
Williams, Miss Venetia	59	9	15.3	-£14.78	-25.1
Smith, Mrs S J	33	5	15.2	+£28.75	+87.1
Snowden, Jamie	38	5	13.2	+£0.19	+0.5
Flint, J L	46	6	13.0	+£8.50	+18.5
Wade, J	31	4	12.9	+£23.00	+74.2
Twiston-Davies, N A	91	11	12.1	-£20.64	-22.7
Williams, Ian	44	5	11.4	-£0.50	-1.1
Bowen, P	62	7	11.3	-£12.67	-20.4
Pipe, D E	146	16	11.0	-£51.60	-35.3
Grant, C	60	6	10.0	+£13.00	+21.7
Russell, Miss Lucinda	60	6	10.0	-£1.50	-2.5
Keighley, M	50	5	10.0	-£18.00	-36.0
Leech, Mrs S	71	7	9.9	+£3.12	+4.4
Baker, George	31	3	9.7	-£21.84	-70.5
Monteith, P	31	3	9.7	£12.00	38.7
Harris, M F	44	4	9.1	-£15.25	-34.7
Mann, C J	49	4	8.2	-£27.67	-56.5
Murphy, Ferdy	49	4	8.2	-£20.00	-40.8
O’ Neill, Jonjo	109	8	7.3	-£61.00	-56.0
Todhunter, M	42	3	7.1	-£20.75	-49.4
Dobbin, Mrs R	30	2	6.7	-£17.50	-58.3
Carroll, A W	34	2	5.9	-£16.00	-47.1
Powell, B G	34	2	5.9	-£23.87	-70.2
King, N B	52	3	5.8	-£38.12	-73.3
Moore, G L	63	3	4.8	-£53.02	-84.2
Corcoran, L	46	2	4.3	-£14.00	-30.4
Thorpe, Mrs A M	77	3	3.9	-£16.50	-21.4
Bailey, Mrs Caroline	30	1	3.3	-£21.50	-71.7
Hales, A M	31	1	3.2	-£24.00	-77.4
Mullins, J W	32	1	3.1	-£28.25	-88.3
Barnes, M A	34	1	2.9	-£8.00	-23.5
Mulholland, N P	35	1	2.9	-£27.00	-77.1
Gordon, C	44	0	0.0	-£44.00	-100.0
Hobbs, Mrs Rachel	38	0	0.0	-£38.00	-100.0
Bailey, K C	36	0	0.0	-£36.00	-100.0

Let us now look at Lawney Hill’s record in more detail. Firstly it should be noted that between 17th April 2011 and 4th July 2011 she saddled 8 new recruits from her yard, 6 of whom won! Interestingly she has a better record in handicaps – 12 wins from 35 (SR 34.3%) for a profit of £81.38 (ROI + 232.5%). She also has a good record with horses that finished 2nd to 5th LTO – 11 wins from 21 (SR 52.4%) for a profit of £60.38 (ROI +287.5%). A final stat worth noting is that she has performed poorly with horses 5 or younger (1 win from 13), whereas horses aged 6 or older she is 17 wins from 46.

Tim Vaughan is a trainer who seems to recruit several new runners each season and hence his data is worth a second glance. The market tends to be a good guide to the chances of his new runners – horses 5th or shorter in the betting have won 64 races from 223 (SR 28.7%) for a profit of £58.07 (ROI +26%); horses 6th or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 56 (SR 1.8%) for a loss of £45.00 (ROI -80.4%). For the record, these runners actually make a profit on their second start for their new trainer as well.

The market has been a good guide to the chances of runners having their first start for Donald McCain. All 17 winners have come from the top four of the betting, while runners 5th or worse have produced 0 winners from 29.

There are two high profile trainers who have poor record with stable switchers – Jonjo O’Neill and David Pipe. The market has been a very good guide to the chances of O’Neill’s runners with just 2 winners from 88 (SR 2.3%) for horses 3rd or bigger in the betting. It is also worth noting that O’Neill has done particularly poorly with any new recruit he has run in a handicap – 0 wins from 43 runners! However, there is one bright spot when you look at all his runner as a whole, they do tend to improve with each run as the following table shows:

Run for O’Neill	Strike rate
1st	7.3%
2nd	9.1%
3rd	11.4%
4th	17.5%

Indeed come their 4th run, his runners have produced positive returns of 50p in the £.

Horses having their first run for David Pipe after switching stables have performed particularly poorly in hurdle races – 9 wins from 105 (SR 8.6%) is testament to that producing significant losses of £61.98 (ROI -59%). Indeed, his chasers have actually made a profit of £12.38 (ROI +61.9%) thanks to 6 wins from 30 (SR 20%).

Finally here are some general stats worth pointing out for all horses having their first National Hunt run for a new trainer having switched stables:

- Horses that started favourite have produced a strike rate of 39% and a profit of £52.55 (ROI +8.3%);

- Horses that run in handicaps have a better strike rate than those running in non handicaps (10.6% versus 8.3%). Handicap runners also lose just 15p in the £ compared to 34p in the £ for non handicap runners;

- Horses that ran in a bumper would have lost you 49p in the £;

- Horses that ran at a Grade 1 track would have lost you 43p in the £.

All in all, I hope I have uncovered some useful stats that will aid your National Hunt betting.