Articles >> horse-racing >>

Switching Stables


SWITCHING STABLES (NATIONAL HUNT)

In the spotlight section of the Racing Post, it is normally brought to your attention if a horse has switched stables and is having his/her first run for a new trainer. The question is – what is the effect does a change of stables have on this first run? I have gathered data for National Hunt racing from 2004 to 2010 and here are the overall figures:

All Runners Wins Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
14644 1196 8.2 -£4568.93 -31.2%

 

As you can see, a change of stables can hardly be described as a ‘positive’. Losses of around 31 pence in the £ are testament to that. With this starting point, we will clearly be struggling to find many positive slants. However, finding negative stats has value, not just from a potential laying perspective, but also for elimination purposes when you are analysing a race. Time to do some more digging:

Let us see if there is much of a difference when we examine the race type of this first run for a new trainer:

Race type Runs Wins Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Novice Hurdle 3704 245 6.6% -£1555.68 -42.0
Handicap Hurdle (exc. Novice) 2088 173 8.3% -£288.14 -13.8
Handicap Chase (exc. Novice) 1567 180 11.5% -£141.03 -9.0
Novice Chase 759 72 9.5% -£161.67 -21.3
Hunter Chase 2104 161 7.7% -£847.91 -40.3
Bumper races 669 45 6.7% -£299.04 -44.7

 

This shows the importance of breaking stats down – there is a big difference in the results of certain race types. Horses that tackle Novice hurdles, Hunter Chases or bumpers are definitely worth avoiding. However, the record of runners in handicap chases is not too bad – losses of only 9p in the £. Indeed, if you focus on runners priced 15/2 or shorter you would have a made a profit – there would have been 127 winners from 531 runners (SR 23.9%) for a profit of £88.68 (ROI +16.7%).

Moving back to the novice hurdle results, if you excludes favourites and second favourites, the strike rate drops to a dismal 3.3% with losses of over 47p in the £.

Looking now at bumper races, focusing on runners that raced on a Grade 1 track (Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Haydock, Kempton, Newbury & Sandown) after switching stables, and we see some dreadful results – just 3 wins from 116 runners (SR 2.6%) for losses of £94.20 (ROI -81.2%). These runners should be avoided like the plague.

Moving back to the overall starting figures (SR 8.2%; ROI -31.1%), it is interesting to see what happens when horses are asked to run at least ½ mile further than their last run – of the 4794 runners only 296 were successful equating to a strike rate of just 6.2%. In terms of losses, they would have stood at £2166.89 (ROI -45.2%). This group of runners are definitely worth avoiding.

Another group of runners with a very poor record are those that wear headgear for the first time when tackling their first run for a new trainer. Combining horses wearing first time blinkers, visors, hoods and cheekpieces gives a paltry total of 30 wins from 529 runners (SR 5.7%) for a hefty loss of £349.89 (ROI -66.1%).

Of course perhaps the most interesting data is simply looking at the records of individual trainers. Training methods differ from trainer to trainer, so it will be interesting to see whether any trainer manages to secure a profit from these stable switchers. More likely perhaps is to find a group of trainers to avoid. Firstly then, here is a look at the trainers with the highest strike rates. I have only included trainers who have had at least 30 runners, producing a strike rate of at least 16%:

Trainer Runs Wins Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
N Henderson 98 33 33.7 +£47.33 +48.3
Mrs T Hill 42 13 31.0 +£105.76 +251.8
P Nicholls 115 33 28.7 -£4.72 -4.1
J Howard Johnson 110 25 22.7 +£11.55 +10.5
Tim Vaughan 240 53 22.1 -£3.84 -1.6
A King 118 26 22.0 +£24.54 +20.8
Mrs M Scudamore 49 10 20.4 +£118.48 +241.8
Miss P Robson 30 6 20.0 +£11.64 +38.8
V Dartnall 30 6 20.0 +£6.99 +23.3
N Richards 61 12 19.7 +£6.28 +10.3
Dr R Newland 36 7 19.4 +£13.00 +36.1
N Gifford 44 8 18.2 +£7.57 +17.2
Miss E Lavelle 52 9 17.3 -£7.75 -14.9
Mrs S Smith 96 16 16.7 +£45.79 +47.7
Jim Best 84 14 16.7 -£14.36 -17.1
C Tizzard 55 9 16.4 +£63.36 +115.2
G L Moore 112 18 16.1 -£9.97 -8.9
C Longsdon 50 8 16.0 +£15.50 +31.0

 

Despite the poor base figures, it is clear that some trainers are worth close scrutiny when a horse has its first run for them. It is perhaps no surprise to Nicky Henderson topping the list – he is a top notch trainer who should be followed under these circumstances. Mrs Tawney Hill is not such a familiar name but she clearly is adept at placing her new runners well in their first start having switched stables. For the record, she has been equally effective with hurdlers (6 wins from 21) and chasers (6 from 17).

Splitting the trainer into hurdle and chase data gives some interesting comparisons. For example, David Pipe with chasers having their first run for him have produced 19 wins from 91 (SR 20.1%) for a profit of £24.57 (ROI +27%); whereas his hurdlers have won 16 races from 158 (SR 10.1%) for a heavy loss of £89.27 (ROI -56.5%). Paul Nicholls has also performed much better with his chasers thanks to 13 wins from 35 (SR 37.1) for a profit of £11.24 (ROI +32.1%); his hurdlers have produced14 winners from 67 (SR 20.9%) for a loss of £18.96 (ROI – 28.3%).

Moving on, let us look at the trainers with the worst record when horses have their first run for them:

Trainer Runs Wins Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
C Grant 62 3 4.8 -£23.50 -37.9
B Powell 105 5 4.8 -£70.98 -67.6
K J Burke 44 2 4.5 -£27.02 -61.4
Miss H Dalton 47 2 4.3 -£38.73 -82.4
A Carroll 53 2 3.8 -£38.00 -71.7
M Easterby 30 1 3.3 -£28.26 -94.2
R Curtis 30 1 3.3 -£17.01 -56.7
P Haslam 31 1 3.2 -£23.00 -74.2
R Johnson 31 1 3.2 -£23.00 -74.2
Mrs Caroline Bailey 32 1 3.1 -£29.50 -92.2
M Hammond 39 1 2.6 -£34.01 -87.2
A Jones 40 1 2.5 -£33.52 -83.8
M Sowersby 42 1 2.4 -£7.98 -19.0
C Roberts 42 1 2.4 -£32.00 -76.2
C Gordon 43 1 2.3 -£34.01 -79.1
M Scudamore 49 1 2.0 -£27.98 -57.1
M Barnes 49 1 2.0 -£22.98 -46.9
M Gingell 55 1 1.8 -£42.02 -76.4
D Burchell 61 1 1.6 -£56.00 -91.8
K Bailey 43 0 0.0 -£43.00 -100.0
B Storey 43 0 0.0 -£43.00 -100.0
James Moffatt 40 0 0.0 -£40.00 -100.0
Miss J Foster 39 0 0.0 -£39.00 -100.0
Miss S Forster 37 0 0.0 -£37.00 -100.0
B Pollock 34 0 0.0 -£34.00 -100.0
F Murtagh 34 0 0.0 -£34.00 -100.0
Miss J Davis 33 0 0.0 -£33.00 -100.0
D Wintle 32 0 0.0 -£32.00 -100.0
G Ham 32 0 0.0 -£32.00 -100.0
Mrs L Normile 31 0 0.0 -£31.00 -100.0

 

Most of these trainers have poor overall records also so it should come as no surprise that their record with such runners is poor.

So what have we gleaned from this research? Well, essentially horses switching stables are generally worth avoiding on their first National Hunt start for a new trainer. This is especially so in hurdle races and bumpers; also runners with first time headgear are definitely worth avoiding. All in all, one should be wary of National Hunt horses having their first run for a new stable. However, having said all that, handicap chasers priced 15/2 or shorter actually made a decent profit, as did a few specific trainers.








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com