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Southwell Sires


Southwell Sires by David Renham

This is the first in a series of articles based on the all weather. This initial article looks at sires – the fathers of the horses in question. Sire research is still an underrated method of horse racing research in my opinion. Indeed, on the all weather I feel it can give punters an edge as some sires perform better on the sand than on turf, while others the pattern is the other way round. Knowing these facts / stats can give you an invaluable edge in certain races. For this piece I am focusing on the only all weather course with a fibresand surface – Southwell.

The data for this article has been taken from January 1st 2006 to December 26th 2010 with profits/losses quoted to £1 level stakes.

Let us start by looking at the best performing sires in terms of strike rate at Southwell. I have only included sires that have had at least 40 runs:

Sire Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Hernando(FR) 11 40 27.5 +£13.15 +32.9
Medicean 22 106 20.8 +£65.64 +61.9
Dubai Destination(USA) 10 49 20.4 +£1.53 +3.1
Aljabr(USA) 8 40 20.0 +£10.35 +25.9
Elnadim(USA) 12 61 19.7 +£66.63 +109.2
Dansili 22 112 19.6 +£37.69 +33.7
Chevalier(IRE) 9 46 19.6 +£71.00 +154.3
Elusive Quality(USA) 18 93 19.4 +£54.23 +58.3
Dancing Spree(USA) 10 52 19.2 +£31.66 +60.9
Key Of Luck(USA) 19 106 17.9 +£14.65 +13.8
Most Welcome 11 62 17.7 -£3.37 -5.4
Rainbow Quest(USA) 7 40 17.5 -£0.30 -0.8
Fantastic Light(USA) 14 80 17.5 +£5.90 +7.4
Shinko Forest(IRE) 14 81 17.3 +£41.50 +51.2
Dr Fong(USA) 24 139 17.3 +£26.60 +19.1
Lend A Hand 8 47 17.0 +£9.07 +19.3
Second Empire(IRE) 9 55 16.4 +£2.75 +5.0
Stravinsky(USA) 15 92 16.3 +£17.59 +19.1
Exceed And Excel(AUS) 8 50 16.0 +£6.25 +12.5
Efisio 23 145 15.9 -£0.46 -0.3

 

17 of the top 20 sires have made a profit to SP over the 5-year period and clearly these sires are worth close inspection when having runners at the course. However, it is always worth digging deeper when looking at general stats like these, and I have looked at each sire individually and calculated the percentage of their individual runners that have actually won. To explain this by using an example - Hernando has sired 24 different horses that have raced at Southwell. 8 of them have won at least once – hence the percentage for Hernando stands at 33.3% (8 divided by 24). The higher the percentage the better:

Sire % of offspring that won
Hernando(FR) 33.3
Medicean 32.6
Dubai Destination(USA) 33.3
Aljabr(USA) 50.0
Elnadim(USA) 40.0
Dansili 30.2
Chevalier(IRE) 30.0
Elusive Quality(USA) 35.0
Dancing Spree(USA) 44.4
Key Of Luck(USA) 39.4
Most Welcome 35.7
Rainbow Quest(USA) 26.7
Fantastic Light(USA) 20.0
Shinko Forest(IRE) 26.7
Dr Fong(USA) 23.6
Lend A Hand 27.3
Second Empire(IRE) 38.5
Stravinsky(USA) 30.4
Exceed And Excel(AUS) 24.2
Efisio 35.0

 

As you can see the percentages are fairly high with Aljabr the highest at 50%. Looking at these percentages can be helpful as overall win to run stats can occasionally be skewed due to one or two horses winning several races at the course. For example, Fantastic Light’s ‘percentage of offspring that won’ is only 20% (only 6 of his 30 runners have been successful at the course). This percentage is relatively low because one horse sired by Fantastic Light, General Tufto, has won 8 times at Southwell – hence his overall Southwell stats are skewed slightly by this one runner.

Having started my ‘digging’ I thought I would look at some of the sires in more detail:

Medicean – is a sire that is worth close inspection at the track. His runners perform particularly well in the following three areas:

Variable Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Distance 7f-11f 19 74 25.7 +£76.36 +103.2
Age - 3yo 10 30 33.3 +£15.36 +51.2
no previous course win 15 68 22.1 +£57.03 +83.9

 

Dansili – has a solid record on the three polytrack courses, but he has performed even more impressively at Southwell. His record at Southwell is particularly strong with fancied runners – with runners from the top 3 in the betting the sire’s record reads 18 wins from 42 (SR 42.9%) for a profit of £30.69 (ROI +73.1%).

Elusive Quality – has an outstanding record with 3yo runners with 9 wins from 21 (SR 42.9%) for a profit of £30.75 (ROI +146.4%).

Key of Luck – horses that have yet to win at the course have a 20% strike rate thanks to 13 wins from 65 for a profit of £21.58 (ROI +33.2%).

Efisio – in general male runners out-perform female runners and this is the case on the all weather. However, Efisio’s females have done outstandingly well with 11 wins from 46 (SR 23.9%) for a profit of £29.66 (ROI +64.5%).

As with any set of stats there are negatives as well as positives. Here are the sires with the lowest strike rates at the course. I have added the ‘% of offspring that won’ on the right hand side of the table:

Sire Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI% % of offspring that won
Xaar 4 81 4.9 -£59.24 -73.1 9.5
Alhaarth(IRE) 3 62 4.8 -£51.75 -83.5 7.7
Inchinor 3 62 4.8 -£53.00 -85.5 6.2
Atraf 2 55 3.6 -£49.87 -90.7 5
First Trump 2 56 3.6 -£45.00 -80.4 8.3
Mujadil(USA) 3 94 3.2 -£69.00 -73.4 8.3
Groom Dancer(USA) 2 63 3.2 -£58.50 -92.9 7.1
Fath(USA) 2 64 3.1 -£47.67 -74.5 8.7
Sri Pekan(USA) 1 41 2.4 -£38.37 -93.6 12.5
Distant Music(USA) 1 42 2.4 -£33.50 -79.8 4.3
Distant View(USA) 1 42 2.4 -£37.76 -89.9 10
Superior Premium 1 45 2.2 -£36.00 -80.0 4.8
Pursuit Of Love 1 49 2.0 -£43.00 -87.8 4
Observatory(USA) 1 56 1.8 -£52.00 -92.9 3

 

All these sires look worth avoiding and here are some more detailed negatives to be aware of:

Xaar - only 2 wins from 25 for runners from the top 3 in betting;

Alhaarth(IRE) - 0 from 48 for horses priced 5/1 or bigger in betting;

Mujadil(USA) - 0 from 49 for races of 7f+;

Groom Dancer(USA) – horses aged 4yos and older 0 from 31;

Distant Music(USA) - 0 wins, 0 placed from 18 with races over 5-6f;

Pursuit Of Love - 0 wins, 0 placed from 25 over 8f+.

So there you have it – I hope this article has demonstrated that using sire research can give you an edge over the crowd, and there certainly is an edge to be gained at Southwell.








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