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September Trainers 2012


 

 

September Trainers (Flat) 2012 by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of September with data taken from 2006 to 2011. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first: 

 

All races (Sept 06-11) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

102

422

24.2

+£13.21

+3.1

George Baker

18

86

20.9

+£75.94

+88.3

Henry Cecil

47

227

20.7

-£2.69

-1.2

Philip McBride

12

59

20.3

+£72.17

+122.3

Jeremy Noseda

50

246

20.3

-£14.33

-5.8

John Gosden

79

397

19.9

-£0.24

-0.1

Marcus Tregoning

35

184

19.0

+£31.28

+17.0

Sir Michael Stoute

73

400

18.3

-£63.16

-15.8

Sir Mark Prescott

47

259

18.2

-£44.63

-17.2

Mahmood Al Zarooni

22

128

17.2

-£21.33

-16.7

Peter Chapple-Hyam

31

181

17.1

+£12.65

+7.0

William Haggas

54

329

16.4

-£11.37

-3.5

Stuart Williams

34

213

16.0

+£5.68

+2.7

Mike Murphy

8

51

15.7

£76.75

150.5

Roger Charlton

36

233

15.5

-£31.67

-13.6

David Lanigan

10

65

15.4

+£30.85

+47.5

Ed McMahon

21

138

15.2

-£21.76

-15.8

Luca Cumani

48

317

15.1

-£68.89

-21.7

Ollie Pears

12

81

14.8

+£16.50

+20.4

Simon Dow

14

103

13.6

+£7.24

+7.0

Alan Bailey

13

96

13.5

-£5.63

-5.9

Chris Wall

26

194

13.4

-£9.88

-5.1

Mark Johnston

124

928

13.4

-£176.76

-19.1

Richard Hannon

144

1086

13.3

-£122.98

-11.3

John Mackie

7

53

13.2

+£10.13

+19.1

 

 

Saeed Bin Suroor heads the table in terms of strike rate knocking Sir Mark Prescott off the ‘top spot’. Prescott had the highest strike rates in June, July and August which is a great effort, and now drops to 9th.

 

Let us look in more detail at Bin Suroor’s record in September. Firstly a breakdown by age:

 

Age

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

2

41

146

28.1

+£2.59

+1.8

3

36

130

27.7

+£32.16

+24.7

4

17

95

17.9

+£4.23

+4.5

5

7

42

16.7

-£18.43

-43.9

6

1

9

11.1

-£7.33

-81.5

 

Decent strike rates for 2 and 3 year olds with 3yos making a healthy profit. Having said that 3yos had a poor 2011 winning just 2 from 26. Horses aged 5 or older have made a hefty loss – this is partly down to the prices of the winners with 5 of them 7/4 or shorter and the highest priced winner aged 5 or above being 5/1.

 

Let me see if market factors make any difference for Bin Suroor’s runners:

 

Market rank

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Favourite

54

149

36.2

-£23.40

-15.7

2nd favourite

22

85

25.9

+£3.28

+3.9

3rd favourite

11

65

16.9

+£4.33

+6.7

4th in betting

8

51

15.7

+£15.00

+29.4

5th in betting

4

29

13.8

+£8.00

+27.6

6th in betting

3

43

7.0

-£6.00

-14.0

 

Favourites have made a loss despite a good strike rate – hence the value has lain with runners 2nd to 5th in the betting. Finally let me break his overall results down by race type:

 

Class

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Conditions races

15

60

25.0

-£0.45

-0.8

Group races

14

57

24.6

-£0.77

-1.4

Listed races

10

64

15.6

-£4.40

-6.9

Handicap races

19

96

19.8

+£19.69

+20.5

Maiden races

43

140

30.7

+£18.27

+13.1

 

Best returns have been in maidens and handicaps.

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Sept 06-11) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

David Arbuthnot

3

61

4.9

-£49.50

-81.2

Ruth Carr

6

123

4.9

-£43.50

-35.4

Nick Littmoden

5

103

4.9

-£61.25

-59.5

Derek Haydn Jones

3

63

4.8

-£4.00

-6.4

James Toller

4

85

4.7

-£44.50

-52.4

Paul Howling

7

153

4.6

-£97.17

-63.5

Derek Shaw

6

131

4.6

-£68.75

-52.5

Alan Berry

9

207

4.4

-£116.75

-56.4

Jeremy Gask

4

95

4.2

-£15.00

-15.8

Jedd O'Keeffe

3

72

4.2

-£32.00

-44.4

Roger Ingram

2

50

4.0

-£30.50

-61.0

Robert Johnson

2

51

3.9

-£40.75

-79.9

Neville Bycroft

4

104

3.9

-£70.00

-67.3

David Brown

2

52

3.9

-£37.50

-72.1

P Monteith

2

52

3.9

+£16.00

+30.8

Michael Quinlan

5

133

3.8

-£52.18

-39.2

Christine Dunnett

5

134

3.7

-£80.00

-59.7

Hugh Collingridge

2

56

3.6

-£20.50

-36.6

John Weymes

3

87

3.5

-£70.75

-81.3

Peter Hiatt

3

87

3.5

-£32.50

-37.4

Geoffrey Harker

2

58

3.5

-£12.00

-20.7

Edward Creighton

2

61

3.3

-£50.50

-82.8

Harry Dunlop

4

133

3.0

-£78.38

-58.9

Mark Usher

3

100

3.0

-£81.17

-81.2

Michael Mullineaux

2

79

2.5

-£62.75

-79.4

Andrew Haynes

3

122

2.5

-£94.50

-77.5

Ian Semple

3

148

2.0

-£107.50

-72.6

Roger Teal

1

61

1.6

-£27.00

-44.3

Bill Turner

1

82

1.2

-£77.50

-94.5

Conor Dore

1

82

1.2

-£75.00

-91.5

Brian Baugh

1

95

1.1

-£90.50

-95.3

Mel Brittain

1

117

0.9

-£111.50

-95.3

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. 24 of the 32 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in September since 2006. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (Sept 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

27

95

28.4

+£12.18

+12.8

Henry Cecil

17

63

27.0

+£27.40

+43.5

John Gosden

29

130

22.3

-£18.86

-14.5

Sir Michael Stoute

28

131

21.4

-£15.18

-11.6

Peter Chapple-Hyam

11

62

17.7

-£11.78

-19.0

Ed McMahon

7

41

17.1

+£7.53

+18.4

Brian Meehan

29

170

17.1

+£21.64

+12.7

Mark Johnston

41

245

16.7

-£24.40

-10.0

Richard Fahey

17

105

16.2

+£46.38

+44.2

Mahmood Al Zarooni

11

68

16.2

-£6.72

-9.9

Richard Hannon

48

303

15.8

+£13.00

+4.3

Michael Dods

6

38

15.8

+£25.07

+66.0

Roger Charlton

11

70

15.7

-£25.14

-35.9

Tom Tate

5

32

15.6

+£16.00

+50.0

Paul Cole

11

71

15.5

-£25.62

-36.1

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It is great to see Henry Cecil doing so well. For “in running” punters it should be noted that all but two of his winners have raced close to or up with the pace. Hence, any runner held up midfield or the back is unlikely to win. From a traditional betting perspective his female runners have performed best, while runners with previous experience are worth noting having provided 14 winners from 35 (SR 40%) for a profit of £35.53 (ROI +101.5%).

 

Let us now look at the trainers with poor 2yo maiden records in this month:

 

All 2yo maiden races (Sept 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Ed Dunlop

4

99

4.0

-£84.55

-85.4

John Hills

2

61

3.3

-£54.60

-89.5

Tim Easterby

3

92

3.3

-£63.06

-68.5

Eve Johnson Houghton

1

33

3.0

-£26.50

-80.3

Eoghan O'Neill  

1

33

3.0

-£29.25

-88.6

James Given

2

68

2.9

-£56.50

-83.1

Mark H Tompkins

2

71

2.8

-£51.25

-72.2

Alan Jarvis

1

40

2.5

-£37.00

-92.5

Rod Millman

1

47

2.1

-£37.00

-78.7

David Simcock

1

50

2.0

-£42.00

-84.0

Harry Dunlop

0

53

0.0

-£53.00

-100.0

Michael Easterby

0

49

0.0

-£49.00

-100.0

Alan Berry

0

35

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

Marco Botti

0

33

0.0

-£33.00

-100.0

John Quinn

0

31

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

 

Finally in this article here are some additional positive trainer stats from this month:

 

Trainer/Variable

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Ed Dunlop in 2yo nurseries

11

47

23.4

+£38.75

+82.4

William Haggas in 2yo nurseries

7

17

41.2

+£15.96

+93.8

Ralph Beckett with 3yos running in maidens

7

18

38.9

+£7.07

+39.3

Michael Dods in 3yo handicaps

8

32

25.0

+£32.88

+102.73

Jeremy Noseda in

3yo handicaps

8

26

30.8

+£5.87

+22.6

Saeed Bin Suroor in

3yo handicaps

7

19

36.8

+£9.21

+48.5

William Haggas with favourites

15

35

42.9

+£11.30

+32.3

Stuart Williams with favourites

11

22

50.0

+£16.05

+73.0

 

I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives and indeed negatives to be taken from the data.

 

 

 








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