September Trainers (Flat) 2012 by David Renham
Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of September with data taken from 2006 to 2011. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.
Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:
All races (Sept 06-11) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Saeed Bin Suroor
|
102
|
422
|
24.2
|
+£13.21
|
+3.1
|
|
George Baker
|
18
|
86
|
20.9
|
+£75.94
|
+88.3
|
|
Henry Cecil
|
47
|
227
|
20.7
|
-£2.69
|
-1.2
|
|
Philip McBride
|
12
|
59
|
20.3
|
+£72.17
|
+122.3
|
|
Jeremy Noseda
|
50
|
246
|
20.3
|
-£14.33
|
-5.8
|
|
John Gosden
|
79
|
397
|
19.9
|
-£0.24
|
-0.1
|
|
Marcus Tregoning
|
35
|
184
|
19.0
|
+£31.28
|
+17.0
|
|
Sir Michael Stoute
|
73
|
400
|
18.3
|
-£63.16
|
-15.8
|
|
Sir Mark Prescott
|
47
|
259
|
18.2
|
-£44.63
|
-17.2
|
|
Mahmood Al Zarooni
|
22
|
128
|
17.2
|
-£21.33
|
-16.7
|
|
Peter Chapple-Hyam
|
31
|
181
|
17.1
|
+£12.65
|
+7.0
|
|
William Haggas
|
54
|
329
|
16.4
|
-£11.37
|
-3.5
|
|
Stuart Williams
|
34
|
213
|
16.0
|
+£5.68
|
+2.7
|
|
Mike Murphy
|
8
|
51
|
15.7
|
£76.75
|
150.5
|
|
Roger Charlton
|
36
|
233
|
15.5
|
-£31.67
|
-13.6
|
|
David Lanigan
|
10
|
65
|
15.4
|
+£30.85
|
+47.5
|
|
Ed McMahon
|
21
|
138
|
15.2
|
-£21.76
|
-15.8
|
|
Luca Cumani
|
48
|
317
|
15.1
|
-£68.89
|
-21.7
|
|
Ollie Pears
|
12
|
81
|
14.8
|
+£16.50
|
+20.4
|
|
Simon Dow
|
14
|
103
|
13.6
|
+£7.24
|
+7.0
|
|
Alan Bailey
|
13
|
96
|
13.5
|
-£5.63
|
-5.9
|
|
Chris Wall
|
26
|
194
|
13.4
|
-£9.88
|
-5.1
|
|
Mark Johnston
|
124
|
928
|
13.4
|
-£176.76
|
-19.1
|
|
Richard Hannon
|
144
|
1086
|
13.3
|
-£122.98
|
-11.3
|
|
John Mackie
|
7
|
53
|
13.2
|
+£10.13
|
+19.1
|
Saeed Bin Suroor heads the table in terms of strike rate knocking Sir Mark Prescott off the ‘top spot’. Prescott had the highest strike rates in June, July and August which is a great effort, and now drops to 9th.
Let us look in more detail at Bin Suroor’s record in September. Firstly a breakdown by age:
|
Age
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
2
|
41
|
146
|
28.1
|
+£2.59
|
+1.8
|
|
3
|
36
|
130
|
27.7
|
+£32.16
|
+24.7
|
|
4
|
17
|
95
|
17.9
|
+£4.23
|
+4.5
|
|
5
|
7
|
42
|
16.7
|
-£18.43
|
-43.9
|
|
6
|
1
|
9
|
11.1
|
-£7.33
|
-81.5
|
Decent strike rates for 2 and 3 year olds with 3yos making a healthy profit. Having said that 3yos had a poor 2011 winning just 2 from 26. Horses aged 5 or older have made a hefty loss – this is partly down to the prices of the winners with 5 of them 7/4 or shorter and the highest priced winner aged 5 or above being 5/1.
Let me see if market factors make any difference for Bin Suroor’s runners:
|
Market rank
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR%
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Favourite
|
54
|
149
|
36.2
|
-£23.40
|
-15.7
|
|
2nd favourite
|
22
|
85
|
25.9
|
+£3.28
|
+3.9
|
|
3rd favourite
|
11
|
65
|
16.9
|
+£4.33
|
+6.7
|
|
4th in betting
|
8
|
51
|
15.7
|
+£15.00
|
+29.4
|
|
5th in betting
|
4
|
29
|
13.8
|
+£8.00
|
+27.6
|
|
6th in betting
|
3
|
43
|
7.0
|
-£6.00
|
-14.0
|
Favourites have made a loss despite a good strike rate – hence the value has lain with runners 2nd to 5th in the betting. Finally let me break his overall results down by race type:
|
Class
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Conditions races
|
15
|
60
|
25.0
|
-£0.45
|
-0.8
|
|
Group races
|
14
|
57
|
24.6
|
-£0.77
|
-1.4
|
|
Listed races
|
10
|
64
|
15.6
|
-£4.40
|
-6.9
|
|
Handicap races
|
19
|
96
|
19.8
|
+£19.69
|
+20.5
|
|
Maiden races
|
43
|
140
|
30.7
|
+£18.27
|
+13.1
|
Best returns have been in maidens and handicaps.
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Sept 06-11) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
David Arbuthnot
|
3
|
61
|
4.9
|
-£49.50
|
-81.2
|
|
Ruth Carr
|
6
|
123
|
4.9
|
-£43.50
|
-35.4
|
|
Nick Littmoden
|
5
|
103
|
4.9
|
-£61.25
|
-59.5
|
|
Derek Haydn Jones
|
3
|
63
|
4.8
|
-£4.00
|
-6.4
|
|
James Toller
|
4
|
85
|
4.7
|
-£44.50
|
-52.4
|
|
Paul Howling
|
7
|
153
|
4.6
|
-£97.17
|
-63.5
|
|
Derek Shaw
|
6
|
131
|
4.6
|
-£68.75
|
-52.5
|
|
Alan Berry
|
9
|
207
|
4.4
|
-£116.75
|
-56.4
|
|
Jeremy Gask
|
4
|
95
|
4.2
|
-£15.00
|
-15.8
|
|
Jedd O'Keeffe
|
3
|
72
|
4.2
|
-£32.00
|
-44.4
|
|
Roger Ingram
|
2
|
50
|
4.0
|
-£30.50
|
-61.0
|
|
Robert Johnson
|
2
|
51
|
3.9
|
-£40.75
|
-79.9
|
|
Neville Bycroft
|
4
|
104
|
3.9
|
-£70.00
|
-67.3
|
|
David Brown
|
2
|
52
|
3.9
|
-£37.50
|
-72.1
|
|
P Monteith
|
2
|
52
|
3.9
|
+£16.00
|
+30.8
|
|
Michael Quinlan
|
5
|
133
|
3.8
|
-£52.18
|
-39.2
|
|
Christine Dunnett
|
5
|
134
|
3.7
|
-£80.00
|
-59.7
|
|
Hugh Collingridge
|
2
|
56
|
3.6
|
-£20.50
|
-36.6
|
|
John Weymes
|
3
|
87
|
3.5
|
-£70.75
|
-81.3
|
|
Peter Hiatt
|
3
|
87
|
3.5
|
-£32.50
|
-37.4
|
|
Geoffrey Harker
|
2
|
58
|
3.5
|
-£12.00
|
-20.7
|
|
Edward Creighton
|
2
|
61
|
3.3
|
-£50.50
|
-82.8
|
|
Harry Dunlop
|
4
|
133
|
3.0
|
-£78.38
|
-58.9
|
|
Mark Usher
|
3
|
100
|
3.0
|
-£81.17
|
-81.2
|
|
Michael Mullineaux
|
2
|
79
|
2.5
|
-£62.75
|
-79.4
|
|
Andrew Haynes
|
3
|
122
|
2.5
|
-£94.50
|
-77.5
|
|
Ian Semple
|
3
|
148
|
2.0
|
-£107.50
|
-72.6
|
|
Roger Teal
|
1
|
61
|
1.6
|
-£27.00
|
-44.3
|
|
Bill Turner
|
1
|
82
|
1.2
|
-£77.50
|
-94.5
|
|
Conor Dore
|
1
|
82
|
1.2
|
-£75.00
|
-91.5
|
|
Brian Baugh
|
1
|
95
|
1.1
|
-£90.50
|
-95.3
|
|
Mel Brittain
|
1
|
117
|
0.9
|
-£111.50
|
-95.3
|
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. 24 of the 32 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in September since 2006. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (Sept 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Saeed Bin Suroor
|
27
|
95
|
28.4
|
+£12.18
|
+12.8
|
|
Henry Cecil
|
17
|
63
|
27.0
|
+£27.40
|
+43.5
|
|
John Gosden
|
29
|
130
|
22.3
|
-£18.86
|
-14.5
|
|
Sir Michael Stoute
|
28
|
131
|
21.4
|
-£15.18
|
-11.6
|
|
Peter Chapple-Hyam
|
11
|
62
|
17.7
|
-£11.78
|
-19.0
|
|
Ed McMahon
|
7
|
41
|
17.1
|
+£7.53
|
+18.4
|
|
Brian Meehan
|
29
|
170
|
17.1
|
+£21.64
|
+12.7
|
|
Mark Johnston
|
41
|
245
|
16.7
|
-£24.40
|
-10.0
|
|
Richard Fahey
|
17
|
105
|
16.2
|
+£46.38
|
+44.2
|
|
Mahmood Al Zarooni
|
11
|
68
|
16.2
|
-£6.72
|
-9.9
|
|
Richard Hannon
|
48
|
303
|
15.8
|
+£13.00
|
+4.3
|
|
Michael Dods
|
6
|
38
|
15.8
|
+£25.07
|
+66.0
|
|
Roger Charlton
|
11
|
70
|
15.7
|
-£25.14
|
-35.9
|
|
Tom Tate
|
5
|
32
|
15.6
|
+£16.00
|
+50.0
|
|
Paul Cole
|
11
|
71
|
15.5
|
-£25.62
|
-36.1
|
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It is great to see Henry Cecil doing so well. For “in running” punters it should be noted that all but two of his winners have raced close to or up with the pace. Hence, any runner held up midfield or the back is unlikely to win. From a traditional betting perspective his female runners have performed best, while runners with previous experience are worth noting having provided 14 winners from 35 (SR 40%) for a profit of £35.53 (ROI +101.5%).
Let us now look at the trainers with poor 2yo maiden records in this month:
All 2yo maiden races (Sept 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Ed Dunlop
|
4
|
99
|
4.0
|
-£84.55
|
-85.4
|
|
John Hills
|
2
|
61
|
3.3
|
-£54.60
|
-89.5
|
|
Tim Easterby
|
3
|
92
|
3.3
|
-£63.06
|
-68.5
|
|
Eve Johnson Houghton
|
1
|
33
|
3.0
|
-£26.50
|
-80.3
|
|
Eoghan O'Neill
|
1
|
33
|
3.0
|
-£29.25
|
-88.6
|
|
James Given
|
2
|
68
|
2.9
|
-£56.50
|
-83.1
|
|
Mark H Tompkins
|
2
|
71
|
2.8
|
-£51.25
|
-72.2
|
|
Alan Jarvis
|
1
|
40
|
2.5
|
-£37.00
|
-92.5
|
|
Rod Millman
|
1
|
47
|
2.1
|
-£37.00
|
-78.7
|
|
David Simcock
|
1
|
50
|
2.0
|
-£42.00
|
-84.0
|
|
Harry Dunlop
|
0
|
53
|
0.0
|
-£53.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Michael Easterby
|
0
|
49
|
0.0
|
-£49.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Alan Berry
|
0
|
35
|
0.0
|
-£35.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Marco Botti
|
0
|
33
|
0.0
|
-£33.00
|
-100.0
|
|
John Quinn
|
0
|
31
|
0.0
|
-£31.00
|
-100.0
|
Finally in this article here are some additional positive trainer stats from this month:
|
Trainer/Variable
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
SR (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Ed Dunlop in 2yo nurseries
|
11
|
47
|
23.4
|
+£38.75
|
+82.4
|
|
William Haggas in 2yo nurseries
|
7
|
17
|
41.2
|
+£15.96
|
+93.8
|
|
Ralph Beckett with 3yos running in maidens
|
7
|
18
|
38.9
|
+£7.07
|
+39.3
|
|
Michael Dods in 3yo handicaps
|
8
|
32
|
25.0
|
+£32.88
|
+102.73
|
|
Jeremy Noseda in
3yo handicaps
|
8
|
26
|
30.8
|
+£5.87
|
+22.6
|
|
Saeed Bin Suroor in
3yo handicaps
|
7
|
19
|
36.8
|
+£9.21
|
+48.5
|
|
William Haggas with favourites
|
15
|
35
|
42.9
|
+£11.30
|
+32.3
|
|
Stuart Williams with favourites
|
11
|
22
|
50.0
|
+£16.05
|
+73.0
|
I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives and indeed negatives to be taken from the data.
