Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of September with data taken from 2005 to 2010. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.
Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:
All races (Sept 05-10) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Saeed Bin Suroor
111
426
26.1
+£28.41
+6.7
Henry Cecil
43
198
21.7
+£14.31
+7.2
Marcus Tregoning
44
205
21.5
+£42.16
+20.6
John Gosden
80
395
20.3
+£53.72
+13.6
Sir Michael Stoute
79
409
19.3
-£43.07
-10.5
Jeremy Noseda
44
235
18.7
-£24.70
-10.5
George Baker
11
59
18.6
+£30.75
+52.1
Ollie Pears
10
55
18.2
+£35.50
+64.6
Philip McBride
11
61
18.0
+£59.17
+97.0
Sir Mark Prescott
49
274
17.9
-£45.14
-16.5
William Haggas
55
316
17.4
+£28.47
+9.0
Peter Chapple-Hyam
29
176
16.5
-£4.10
-2.3
Roger Charlton
38
235
16.2
-£33.02
-14.1
Luca Cumani
51
317
16.1
-£76.77
-24.2
Simon Dow
14
95
14.7
+£3.24
+3.4
Alan Swinbank
31
211
14.7
+£16.88
+8.0
Stuart Williams
30
206
14.6
-£14.24
-6.9
Mark Johnston
125
876
14.3
-£144.99
-16.6
B W Hills
88
631
14.0
-£72.98
-11.6
Saeed Bin Suroor heads the table in terms of strike rate knocking Sir Mark Prescott off the ‘top spot’. Prescott had the highest strike rates in June, July and August which is a great effort, and now drops to 10th.
Let us look in more detail at Bin Suroor’s record in September. Firstly a breakdown by age:
Age
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
2
46
168
27.4
-£10.96
-6.5
3
40
124
32.3
+£50.41
+40.7
4
16
85
18.8
+£9.23
+10.9
5 or older
9
49
18.4
-£20.96
-41.3
Excellent strike rates for 2 and 3 year olds with 3yos making a healthy profit. Horses aged 5 or older have made a hefty loss though – this is partly down to the prices of the winners with 5 of them 7/4 or shorter and the highest priced winner aged 5 or above being 5/1. With 3yos performing extremely well it is worth looking at their record in a bit more detail. Here is a selection of some of the more profitable 3yo angles I found for the Godolphin trainer.
3yo Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Lingfield
6
10
60.0
+£15.25
+152.5
Redcar
5
6
83.3
+£3.71
+61.9
Debutants
9
14
64.3
+£16.55
+118.2
Jockey T Durcan
12
28
42.9
+£31.83
+113.7
Days since last run 8-28 days
18
51
35.3
+£48.31
+94.7
Maiden races
18
37
48.6
+£19.10
+51.6
LTO 1st or 2nd
19
56
33.9
+£35.31
+63.1
It seems that there is scope for decent profits in September following selected 3yos from the Bin Suroor stable.
Let me move back to all his runners now to see whether betting market factors make any difference:
Market rank
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Favourite
61
156
39.1
-£15.70
-10.1
2nd favourite
25
89
28.1
+£19.78
+22.2
3rd favourite
13
67
19.4
+£15.33
+22.9
4th in betting
6
46
13.0
+£2.00
+4.4
5+ in betting
6
68
8.8
+£7.00
+10.3
Favourites have made a loss despite a good strike rate – hence the value has lain with all non favourites. Finally let me break his overall results down by class:
Class
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
1
25
125
20.0
-£12.92
-10.3
2
12
65
18.5
-£8.53
-13.1
3
18
56
32.1
+£28.08
+50.1
4
22
82
26.8
-£3.75
-4.6
5 or lower
34
98
34.7
+£25.52
+26.0
It looks best to concentrate on class 3 runners or lower.
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Sept 05-10) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Nick Littmoden
7
139
5.0
-£89.50
-64.4
Ruth Carr
4
80
5.0
-£12.00
-15.0
Roger Ingram
3
61
4.9
-£30.50
-50.0
Paul Midgley
9
186
4.8
-£58.50
-31.5
Jonathan Geake
3
63
4.8
-£14.50
-23.0
Julia Feilden
4
85
4.7
-£11.50
-13.5
Michael Chapman
3
64
4.7
-£43.50
-68.0
Robin Bastiman
3
64
4.7
-£27.00
-42.2
Paul Howling
8
171
4.7
-£108.17
-63.3
Alan Berry
10
214
4.7
-£114.75
-53.6
Peter Grayson
4
86
4.7
-£38.50
-44.8
John Wainwright
3
65
4.6
-£38.00
-58.5
Stuart Kittow
4
88
4.6
-£66.50
-75.6
Alan Jarvis
7
165
4.2
-£98.00
-59.4
John Weymes
4
100
4.0
-£41.75
-41.8
Edward Creighton
2
52
3.9
-£41.50
-79.8
Jonathan Portman
4
107
3.7
-£65.00
-60.8
I Semple
6
172
3.5
-£78.06
-45.4
Harry Dunlop
4
116
3.5
-£61.38
-52.9
John Bridger
4
116
3.5
-£49.00
-42.2
Neville Bycroft
4
119
3.4
-£78.00
-65.6
P Monteith
2
60
3.3
+£8.00
+13.3
Michael Quinlan
5
151
3.3
-£70.18
-46.5
Hugh Collingridge
2
69
2.9
-£33.50
-48.6
Andrew Haynes
3
119
2.5
-£91.50
-76.9
Bill Turner
2
84
2.4
-£64.50
-76.8
Peter Hiatt
2
87
2.3
-£38.00
-43.7
Roy Bowring
1
50
2.0
-£45.00
-90.0
Alan Brown
1
58
1.7
-£37.00
-63.8
C A Cyzer
1
63
1.6
-£52.00
-82.5
Conor Dore
1
74
1.4
-£67.00
-90.5
Mel Brittain
1
92
1.1
-£86.50
-94.0
Mark Usher
0
86
0.0
-£86.00
-100.0
Michael Mullineaux
0
76
0.0
-£76.00
-100.0
Brian Baugh
0
75
0.0
-£75.00
-100.0
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. 30 of the 35 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in September since 2005. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (Sept 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Henry Cecil
16
53
30.2
+£33.40
+63.0
Saeed Bin Suroor
29
110
26.4
-£6.53
-5.9
Sir Michael Stoute
29
127
22.8
-£11.71
-9.2
John Gosden
27
127
21.3
+£31.70
+25.0
Marcus Tregoning
10
52
19.2
-£0.78
-1.5
Peter Chapple-Hyam
13
68
19.1
-£8.28
-12.2
Mark Johnston
50
264
18.9
+£11.97
+4.5
Tom Tate
6
32
18.8
+£37.00
+115.6
B W Hills
33
187
17.7
-£14.63
-7.8
Brian Meehan
27
162
16.7
+£3.39
+2.1
Henry Candy
6
36
16.7
+£19.34
+53.7
Mahmood Al Zarooni
4
25
16.0
+£3.90
+15.6
Richard Fahey
15
94
16.0
+£46.88
+49.9
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It is great to see Henry Cecil topping the list. For “in running” punters it should be noted that all but two of his winners have raced close to or up with the pace. Hence, any runner held up midfield or the back is unlikely to win. From a traditional betting perspective his female runners have performed best, while runners with previous experience are worth noting having provided 13 winners from 31 (SR 41.9%) for a profit of £35.53 (ROI +114.6%).
Let us now look at the trainers with poor 2yo maiden records in this month:
All 2yo maiden races (Sept 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Dean Ivory
1
26
3.9
-£11.00
-42.3
John Quinn
1
26
3.9
-£19.50
-75.0
John Weymes
1
26
3.9
-£13.00
-50.0
Reg Hollinshead
1
26
3.9
-£22.75
-87.5
Michael Blanshard
1
28
3.6
-£23.00
-82.1
P A Blockley
1
28
3.6
-£20.00
-71.4
James Given
2
57
3.5
-£49.50
-86.8
Eve Johnson Houghton
1
30
3.3
-£23.50
-78.3
Jamie Osborne
2
62
3.2
-£31.50
-50.8
Chris Wall
1
33
3.0
-£30.50
-92.4
Gary Moore
1
33
3.0
-£30.63
-92.8
Rod Millman
1
39
2.6
-£29.00
-74.4
Sir Mark Prescott Bt
2
108
1.9
-£30.00
-27.8
Harry Dunlop
0
46
0.0
-£46.00
-100.0
Michael Easterby
0
44
0.0
-£44.00
-100.0
Alan Berry
0
38
0.0
-£38.00
-100.0
Alan Jarvis
0
35
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
Nick Littmoden
0
30
0.0
-£30.00
-100.0
Bryn Palling
0
29
0.0
-£29.00
-100.0
Edward Vaughan
0
27
0.0
-£27.00
-100.0
Marco Botti
0
25
0.0
-£25.00
-100.0
I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives and indeed negatives to be taken from the data.
