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September Trainers 2011


 

 

September Trainers (Flat) 2011 by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of September with data taken from 2005 to 2010. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first: 

 

All races (Sept 05-10) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

111

426

26.1

+£28.41

+6.7

Henry Cecil

43

198

21.7

+£14.31

+7.2

Marcus Tregoning

44

205

21.5

+£42.16

+20.6

John Gosden

80

395

20.3

+£53.72

+13.6

Sir Michael Stoute

79

409

19.3

-£43.07

-10.5

Jeremy Noseda

44

235

18.7

-£24.70

-10.5

George Baker

11

59

18.6

+£30.75

+52.1

Ollie Pears

10

55

18.2

+£35.50

+64.6

Philip McBride

11

61

18.0

+£59.17

+97.0

Sir Mark Prescott

49

274

17.9

-£45.14

-16.5

William Haggas

55

316

17.4

+£28.47

+9.0

Peter Chapple-Hyam

29

176

16.5

-£4.10

-2.3

Roger Charlton

38

235

16.2

-£33.02

-14.1

Luca Cumani

51

317

16.1

-£76.77

-24.2

Simon Dow

14

95

14.7

+£3.24

+3.4

Alan Swinbank

31

211

14.7

+£16.88

+8.0

Stuart Williams

30

206

14.6

-£14.24

-6.9

Mark Johnston

125

876

14.3

-£144.99

-16.6

B W Hills

88

631

14.0

-£72.98

-11.6

 

Saeed Bin Suroor heads the table in terms of strike rate knocking Sir Mark Prescott off the ‘top spot’. Prescott had the highest strike rates in June, July and August which is a great effort, and now drops to 10th.

 

Let us look in more detail at Bin Suroor’s record in September. Firstly a breakdown by age:

 

Age

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

2

46

168

27.4

-£10.96

-6.5

3

40

124

32.3

+£50.41

+40.7

4

16

85

18.8

+£9.23

+10.9

5 or older

9

49

18.4

-£20.96

-41.3

 

Excellent strike rates for 2 and 3 year olds with 3yos making a healthy profit. Horses aged 5 or older have made a hefty loss though – this is partly down to the prices of the winners with 5 of them 7/4 or shorter and the highest priced winner aged 5 or above being 5/1. With 3yos performing extremely well it is worth looking at their record in a bit more detail. Here is a selection of some of the more profitable 3yo angles I found for the Godolphin trainer.

 

3yo Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Lingfield

6

10

60.0

+£15.25

+152.5

Redcar

5

6

83.3

+£3.71

+61.9

Debutants

9

14

64.3

+£16.55

+118.2

Jockey T Durcan

12

28

42.9

+£31.83

+113.7

Days since last run 8-28 days

18

51

35.3

+£48.31

+94.7

Maiden races

18

37

48.6

+£19.10

+51.6

LTO 1st or 2nd

19

56

33.9

+£35.31

+63.1

 

It seems that there is scope for decent profits in September following selected 3yos from the Bin Suroor stable.

 

Let me move back to all his runners now to see whether betting market factors make any difference:

 

Market rank

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Favourite

61

156

39.1

-£15.70

-10.1

2nd favourite

25

89

28.1

+£19.78

+22.2

3rd favourite

13

67

19.4

+£15.33

+22.9

4th in betting

6

46

13.0

+£2.00

+4.4

5+ in betting

6

68

8.8

+£7.00

+10.3

 

Favourites have made a loss despite a good strike rate – hence the value has lain with all non favourites. Finally let me break his overall results down by class:

 

Class

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

1

25

125

20.0

-£12.92

-10.3

2

12

65

18.5

-£8.53

-13.1

3

18

56

32.1

+£28.08

+50.1

4

22

82

26.8

-£3.75

-4.6

5 or lower

34

98

34.7

+£25.52

+26.0

 

It looks best to concentrate on class 3 runners or lower.

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Sept 05-10) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nick Littmoden

7

139

5.0

-£89.50

-64.4

Ruth Carr

4

80

5.0

-£12.00

-15.0

Roger Ingram

3

61

4.9

-£30.50

-50.0

Paul Midgley

9

186

4.8

-£58.50

-31.5

Jonathan Geake

3

63

4.8

-£14.50

-23.0

Julia Feilden

4

85

4.7

-£11.50

-13.5

Michael Chapman

3

64

4.7

-£43.50

-68.0

Robin Bastiman

3

64

4.7

-£27.00

-42.2

Paul Howling

8

171

4.7

-£108.17

-63.3

Alan Berry

10

214

4.7

-£114.75

-53.6

Peter Grayson

4

86

4.7

-£38.50

-44.8

John Wainwright

3

65

4.6

-£38.00

-58.5

Stuart Kittow

4

88

4.6

-£66.50

-75.6

Alan Jarvis

7

165

4.2

-£98.00

-59.4

John Weymes

4

100

4.0

-£41.75

-41.8

Edward Creighton

2

52

3.9

-£41.50

-79.8

Jonathan Portman

4

107

3.7

-£65.00

-60.8

I Semple

6

172

3.5

-£78.06

-45.4

Harry Dunlop

4

116

3.5

-£61.38

-52.9

John Bridger

4

116

3.5

-£49.00

-42.2

Neville Bycroft

4

119

3.4

-£78.00

-65.6

P Monteith

2

60

3.3

+£8.00

+13.3

Michael Quinlan

5

151

3.3

-£70.18

-46.5

Hugh Collingridge

2

69

2.9

-£33.50

-48.6

Andrew Haynes

3

119

2.5

-£91.50

-76.9

Bill Turner

2

84

2.4

-£64.50

-76.8

Peter Hiatt

2

87

2.3

-£38.00

-43.7

Roy Bowring

1

50

2.0

-£45.00

-90.0

Alan Brown

1

58

1.7

-£37.00

-63.8

C A Cyzer

1

63

1.6

-£52.00

-82.5

Conor Dore

1

74

1.4

-£67.00

-90.5

Mel Brittain

1

92

1.1

-£86.50

-94.0

Mark Usher

0

86

0.0

-£86.00

-100.0

Michael Mullineaux

0

76

0.0

-£76.00

-100.0

Brian Baugh

0

75

0.0

-£75.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. 30 of the 35 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in September since 2005. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (Sept 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Henry Cecil

16

53

30.2

+£33.40

+63.0

Saeed Bin Suroor

29

110

26.4

-£6.53

-5.9

Sir Michael Stoute

29

127

22.8

-£11.71

-9.2

John Gosden

27

127

21.3

+£31.70

+25.0

Marcus Tregoning

10

52

19.2

-£0.78

-1.5

Peter Chapple-Hyam

13

68

19.1

-£8.28

-12.2

Mark Johnston

50

264

18.9

+£11.97

+4.5

Tom Tate

6

32

18.8

+£37.00

+115.6

B W Hills

33

187

17.7

-£14.63

-7.8

Brian Meehan

27

162

16.7

+£3.39

+2.1

Henry Candy

6

36

16.7

+£19.34

+53.7

Mahmood Al Zarooni

4

25

16.0

+£3.90

+15.6

Richard Fahey

15

94

16.0

+£46.88

+49.9

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It is great to see Henry Cecil topping the list. For “in running” punters it should be noted that all but two of his winners have raced close to or up with the pace. Hence, any runner held up midfield or the back is unlikely to win. From a traditional betting perspective his female runners have performed best, while runners with previous experience are worth noting having provided 13 winners from 31 (SR 41.9%) for a profit of £35.53 (ROI +114.6%).

 

Let us now look at the trainers with poor 2yo maiden records in this month:

 

All 2yo maiden races (Sept 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Dean Ivory

1

26

3.9

-£11.00

-42.3

John Quinn

1

26

3.9

-£19.50

-75.0

John Weymes

1

26

3.9

-£13.00

-50.0

Reg Hollinshead

1

26

3.9

-£22.75

-87.5

Michael Blanshard

1

28

3.6

-£23.00

-82.1

P A Blockley

1

28

3.6

-£20.00

-71.4

James Given

2

57

3.5

-£49.50

-86.8

Eve Johnson Houghton

1

30

3.3

-£23.50

-78.3

Jamie Osborne

2

62

3.2

-£31.50

-50.8

Chris Wall

1

33

3.0

-£30.50

-92.4

Gary Moore

1

33

3.0

-£30.63

-92.8

Rod Millman

1

39

2.6

-£29.00

-74.4

Sir Mark Prescott Bt

2

108

1.9

-£30.00

-27.8

Harry Dunlop

0

46

0.0

-£46.00

-100.0

Michael Easterby

0

44

0.0

-£44.00

-100.0

Alan Berry

0

38

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

Alan Jarvis

0

35

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

Nick Littmoden

0

30

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

Bryn Palling

0

29

0.0

-£29.00

-100.0

Edward Vaughan

0

27

0.0

-£27.00

-100.0

Marco Botti

0

25

0.0

-£25.00

-100.0

 

I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives and indeed negatives to be taken from the data.

 

 

 








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