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September Trainers (Flat) by David Renham
Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of September with data taken from 2004 to 2009. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.
Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:
All races (Sept 04-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)
Saeed Bin Suroor heads the table in terms of strike rate knocking Sir Mark Prescott off the ‘top spot’. Prescott had the highest strike rates in June, July and August which is a great effort, and even now he is in a solid 5th place with a very respectable 1 in 5 strike rate.
One Bin Suroor angle in September that is worth noting is focusing on runners 2nd to 4th in the betting market. These runners have provided 50 winners from 228 (SR 21.9%) for a healthy profit of £51.73 (ROI +22.7%). He also shows profits in handicaps, in all weather races and when Ted Durcan rides. Durcan has a similar strike rate to Dettori but his mounts tend to start at slightly bigger prices offering some value.
Michael Jarvis is one of my favourite trainers and during September his record with favourites has been outstanding – 41 wins from 84 (SR 48.8%) for a profit of £29.02 (ROI +34.5%). Indeed the market is an excellent guide to the chances of his runners at this time of the year and focusing on his runners in the top 3 in the betting gives the following results – 65 wins from 182 (SR 35.7%) for a profit of £67.29 (ROI +37%). One negative worth noting for Jarvis is that his older runners have performed poorly with 5yos and above producing just 2 wins from 26.
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Sept 04-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. 30 of the 38 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in September since 2004. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (Sept 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It is great to see Henry Cecil topping the list – he is a great trainer who has been through a lot. For “in running” punters it should be noted that all but one of his winners have raced close to or up with the pace. Hence, any runner held up midfield or the back is very unlikely to win. From a traditional betting perspective his favourites have done well (9 wins from 16) and jockey Tom Queally is 6 wins, 6 placed from 14 runners.
It should be noted that John Gosden’s stats are skewed somewhat by a 50/1 winner as well as a winner at 33/1. Take those away and he would have a small loss. Having said that, if you focused on Gosden’s 2yo maidens priced 8/1 or shorter they would have produced 19 winners from 67 (SR 28.4%) for a profit of £10.25 (ROI +15.3%).
Let us look at the trainers with poor 2yo maiden records in this month:
All 2yo maiden races (Sept 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)
Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:
All 3yos running in maiden races (Sept 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 17%+)
The top three trainers in the table all have decent strike rates and returns so it is best to keep on the right side of their runners.
Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list and don’t be put off my horses making their career debuts in these races as he has an amazing 64% strike rate (11 wins from 17).
I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.
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