September Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of September with data taken from 2004 to 2009. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:

All races (Sept 04-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Saeed Bin Suroor	118	455	25.9	+£16.15	+3.6
M A Jarvis	74	316	23.4	+£25.29	+8.0
M P Tregoning	47	216	21.8	+£49.34	+22.8
H R A Cecil	37	171	21.6	+£12.68	+7.4
Sir Mark Prescott	59	292	20.2	-£18.26	-6.3
J H M Gosden	69	363	19.0	+£82.96	+22.9
Sir Michael Stoute	76	410	18.5	-£76.90	-18.8
J Noseda	37	207	17.9	-£24.84	-12.0
L M Cumani	50	300	16.7	-£49.31	-16.4
P W Chapple-Hyam	28	172	16.3	-£28.03	-16.3
W J Haggas	47	299	15.7	+£12.68	+4.2
G A Swinbank	31	198	15.7	+£26.88	+13.6
H Candy	27	177	15.3	+£12.67	+7.2
M Johnston	116	769	15.1	-£99.21	-12.9
R Charlton	33	219	15.1	-£31.39	-14.3
B W Hills	96	658	14.6	-£26.14	-4.0
J R Boyle	22	157	14.0	+£67.63	+43.1

 

Saeed Bin Suroor heads the table in terms of strike rate knocking Sir Mark Prescott off the ‘top spot’. Prescott had the highest strike rates in June, July and August which is a great effort, and even now he is in a solid 5th place with a very respectable 1 in 5 strike rate.

One Bin Suroor angle in September that is worth noting is focusing on runners 2nd to 4th in the betting market. These runners have provided 50 winners from 228 (SR 21.9%) for a healthy profit of £51.73 (ROI +22.7%). He also shows profits in handicaps, in all weather races and when Ted Durcan rides. Durcan has a similar strike rate to Dettori but his mounts tend to start at slightly bigger prices offering some value.

Michael Jarvis is one of my favourite trainers and during September his record with favourites has been outstanding – 41 wins from 84 (SR 48.8%) for a profit of £29.02 (ROI +34.5%). Indeed the market is an excellent guide to the chances of his runners at this time of the year and focusing on his runners in the top 3 in the betting gives the following results – 65 wins from 182 (SR 35.7%) for a profit of £67.29 (ROI +37%). One negative worth noting for Jarvis is that his older runners have performed poorly with 5yos and above producing just 2 wins from 26.

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Sept 04-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
N P Littmoden	8	161	5.0	-£98.06	-60.9
J M Bradley	19	387	4.9	-£216.75	-56.0
D Shaw	5	105	4.8	-£60.75	-57.9
J A Geake	3	63	4.8	-£14.50	-23.0
Jedd O'Keeffe	3	65	4.6	-£34.00	-52.3
Miss Gay Kelleway	6	132	4.6	-£72.25	-54.7
A King	4	90	4.4	-£69.63	-77.4
H J L Dunlop	4	90	4.4	-£35.38	-39.3
P C Haslam	5	115	4.4	-£19.88	-17.3
M G Quinlan	6	139	4.3	-£45.18	-32.5
P W Hiatt	4	93	4.3	-£23.50	-25.3
M C Chapman	3	76	4.0	-£55.50	-73.0
G C H Chung	2	51	3.9	-£19.00	-37.3
P Howling	6	159	3.8	-£115.92	-72.9
P Monteith	2	53	3.8	+£15.00	+28.3
A B Haynes	4	107	3.7	-£77.13	-72.1
A P Jarvis	6	162	3.7	-£103.00	-63.6
C W Fairhurst	2	54	3.7	-£42.50	-78.7
Mrs A L M King	2	54	3.7	-£39.50	-73.2
Paul Green	2	54	3.7	-£40.00	-74.1
R F Fisher	2	57	3.5	-£35.00	-61.4
J G Portman	3	87	3.5	-£56.00	-64.4
Andrew Turnell	2	58	3.5	-£40.50	-69.8
J S Wainwright	3	88	3.4	-£61.00	-69.3
N Bycroft	4	119	3.4	-£78.00	-65.6
Mrs P N Dutfield	2	67	3.0	-£55.50	-82.8
I Semple	6	210	2.9	-£116.06	-55.3
H J Collingridge	2	70	2.9	-£34.50	-49.3
J J Bridger	3	119	2.5	-£59.50	-50.0
W G M Turner	2	87	2.3	-£67.50	-77.6
M Brittain	2	91	2.2	-£72.50	-79.7
J R Weymes	2	106	1.9	-£59.00	-55.7
D A Nolan	1	59	1.7	+£8.00	+13.6
C R Dore	1	77	1.3	-£70.00	-90.9
C A Cyzer	1	78	1.3	-£67.00	-85.9
M Mullineaux	0	89	0.0	-£89.00	-100.0
M D I Usher	0	81	0.0	-£81.00	-100.0
B P J Baugh	0	56	0.0	-£56.00	-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. 30 of the 38 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in September since 2004. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (Sept 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
H R A Cecil	15	44	34.1	+£31.40	+71.4
M A Jarvis	28	90	31.1	+£14.42	+16.0
Saeed Bin Suroor	38	136	27.9	+£5.20	+3.8
H Candy	10	40	25.0	+£36.59	+91.5
Sir Michael Stoute	29	134	21.6	-£26.19	-19.5
P W Chapple-Hyam	15	72	20.8	-£15.71	-21.8
M Johnston	51	260	19.6	-£5.21	-2.0
J H M Gosden	23	121	19.0	+£80.25	+66.3
R M Beckett	11	61	18.0	+£34.88	+57.2
B J Meehan	25	141	17.7	-£16.52	-11.7
M P Tregoning	11	63	17.5	+£3.65	+5.8
T P Tate	5	29	17.2	+£25.00	+86.2
B W Hills	32	196	16.3	-£49.01	-25.0
M L W Bell	14	87	16.1	-£19.07	-21.9

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It is great to see Henry Cecil topping the list – he is a great trainer who has been through a lot. For “in running” punters it should be noted that all but one of his winners have raced close to or up with the pace. Hence, any runner held up midfield or the back is very unlikely to win. From a traditional betting perspective his favourites have done well (9 wins from 16) and jockey Tom Queally is 6 wins, 6 placed from 14 runners.

It should be noted that John Gosden’s stats are skewed somewhat by a 50/1 winner as well as a winner at 33/1. Take those away and he would have a small loss. Having said that, if you focused on Gosden’s 2yo maidens priced 8/1 or shorter they would have produced 19 winners from 67 (SR 28.4%) for a profit of £10.25 (ROI +15.3%).

Let us look at the trainers with poor 2yo maiden records in this month:

All 2yo maiden races (Sept 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
I A Wood	1	25	4.0	-£21.75	-87.0
T D Easterby	4	104	3.9	-£80.77	-77.7
A Berry	2	52	3.9	-£41.50	-79.8
C F Wall	1	26	3.9	-£23.50	-90.4
D K Ivory	1	26	3.9	-£11.00	-42.3
C E Brittain	4	108	3.7	-£86.00	-79.6
G A Butler	1	27	3.7	-£20.00	-74.1
J R Weymes	1	27	3.7	-£14.00	-51.9
R Hollinshead	1	27	3.7	-£23.75	-88.0
W J Knight	1	28	3.6	£73.00	260.7
P Winkworth	1	30	3.3	-£26.00	-86.7
G L Moore	1	34	2.9	-£30.50	-89.7
B R Millman	1	38	2.6	-£25.00	-65.8
M W Easterby	0	45	0.0	-£45.00	-100.0
A P Jarvis	0	37	0.0	-£37.00	-100.0
H J L Dunlop	0	36	0.0	-£36.00	-100.0
B Palling	0	31	0.0	-£31.00	-100.0
N P Littmoden	0	31	0.0	-£31.00	-100.0
E F Vaughan	0	27	0.0	-£27.00	-100.0
J A Glover	0	23	0.0	-£23.00	-100.0
B G Powell	0	21	0.0	-£21.00	-100.0
D Carroll	0	20	0.0	-£20.00	-100.0
W G M Turner	0	20	0.0	-£20.00	-100.0

 

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

All 3yos running in maiden races (Sept 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Saeed Bin Suroor	18	41	43.9	+£14.13	+34.5
M A Jarvis	10	23	43.5	+£7.75	+33.7
B W Hills	17	55	30.9	+£18.39	+33.4
J H M Gosden	15	59	25.4	+£0.34	+0.6
L M Cumani	9	41	22.0	-£5.51	-13.4
M P Tregoning	7	33	21.2	+£8.23	+24.9
J Noseda	5	25	20.0	-£9.25	-37.0
E A L Dunlop	4	21	19.1	-£12.92	-61.5
M Johnston	5	29	17.2	-£3.25	-11.2

 

The top three trainers in the table all have decent strike rates and returns so it is best to keep on the right side of their runners.

Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list and don’t be put off my horses making their career debuts in these races as he has an amazing 64% strike rate (11 wins from 17).

I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.