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Richard Hannon 2yos


 

Richard Hannon 2yos - Does their debut run tell us anything?
 
Richard Hannon always has a large stable of 2 year olds – indeed each year he tends to have the most 2yos in the country (in trainer terms). This article attempts to see if we can glean anything from their 2yo debut run. The data is taken from 2005 to 2010 and I am focusing on the three subsequent runs after their debut (eg. career starts 2, 3 and 4).
 
My first port of call was to look at Hannon’s 2yos in terms of their finishing position on their debut.
 
1st on debut
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
21
72
29.2
-£2.62
-2.6
3rd career start
13
65
20.0
-£16.19
-16.2
4th career start
8
60
13.3
-£35.62
-35.6
 
Debutant winners have a good strike rate on their second run – near to 30%. However, despite this, they have still made a small loss. Performance gets progressively worse over their next three runs.
 
2nd on debut
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
13
57
22.8
-£22.38
-39.3
3rd career start
22
54
40.7
+£8.29
+15.4
4th career start
12
53
22.6
-£8.03
-15.2
 
Horses that finish 2nd on debut are often strongly touted to go one better next time, but this has not been the case with Hannon runners. Having said that, their 3rd career start has produced an excellent SR, but all winners were cramped odds – biggest price being 7/2. Hence only modest profits.
 
3rd/4th on debut
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
37
133
27.8
-£8.05
-6.1
3rd career start
35
129
27.1
+£58.42
+45.3
4th career start
28
122
23.0
+£7.37
+6.0
 
Decent return for runners having 3rd career start once again – however 25/1 and 22/1 winners did help somewhat. All in all Hannon’s runners who finish 3rd or 4th on their 2yo debut are worth close scrutiny on their next three starts.
 
5th or worse on debut
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
66
442
14.9
+£49.30
+11.2
3rd career start
48
420
11.4
-£71.64
-17.1
4th career start
59
397
14.9
-£56.70
-14.3
 
Interesting that these runners have managed to make a profit on their second career start – clearly with a strike rate of under 15% the winning prices have compensated for this. Of course with a moderate run on debut, one would expect some decent prices on their very next start. 3rd and 4th career starts however, have not produced any results to shout about.
 
Let me move on to see if the distance on their debut run makes any difference.
 
Debut over 5f
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
53
196
27.0
-£1.00
-0.5
3rd career start
36
192
18.8
-£48.40
-25.2
4th career start
39
186
21.0
-£32.96
-17.7
 
Hannon is more renowned for his 2yo sprinters (5-6f) so it is perhaps no surprise to see a near break-even situation on their second starts. 3rd and 4th runs look best avoided however.
 
Debut over 6f
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
53
307
17.3
+£36.74
+12.0
3rd career start
59
295
20.0
+£87.87
+29.8
4th career start
37
275
13.5
-£62.75
-22.8
 
As stated above, Hannon is renowned more for his sprinting 2yos and the 6f debutants certainly catch the eye on their next two starts – profits made on their 2nd and 3rd career runs is something to take note of.
 
Debut over 7f+
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
31
200
15.5
-£18.50
-9.2
3rd career start
22
180
12.2
-£63.92
-35.5
4th career start
31
170
18.2
+£3.71
+2.2
 
Horses that make their 2yo debut over 7f or more have a fair record next time, but then their performance drops off on their 3rd start. Profits are made on their fourth start – I wonder if they come from handicap debutants, as this is the only explanation I can offer for an improved performance.
 
I have written articles before about 2yo debutants and have noted that the course where they make debut does make a difference. Hence it makes sense to explore this idea in detail for Hannon’s 2yos.
 
Debut at Ascot
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
1
24
4.2
-£21.25
-88.5
3rd career start
7
24
29.2
-£6.18
-25.7
4th career start
3
23
13.0
-£4.63
-20.1
 
Not many Hannon runners make their debut at Ascot, but I would expected much better figures than we get. Indeed, the second start figures are very poor; albeit from a relatively small sample.
 
Debut at Bath
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
4
26
15.4
-£11.00
-42.3
3rd career start
7
25
28.0
+£4.80
+19.2
4th career start
7
22
31.8
+£8.48
+38.5
 
Horses that make their debut at Bath perform fairly poorly on their second start, but there are profitable figures for their 3rd and 4th starts – not only that, the respective strike rates are high as well.
 
Debut at Goodwood
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
9
64
14.1
-£22.06
-34.5
3rd career start
13
59
22.0
+£11.90
+20.2
4th career start
8
54
14.8
-£22.08
-40.9
 
Quite a few of Hannon’s 2yos make their debut at Goodwood. A bit of a confusing ‘pattern’ here with 2nd and 4th career stats performing poorly, with the 3rd career start showing a good strike rate and profit. Difficult to explain I’m afraid.
 
Debut at Kempton
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
13
48
27.1
+£26.90
+56.0
3rd career start
6
41
14.6
-£12.35
-30.1
4th career start
10
41
24.4
+£12.74
+31.1
 
Horses making their debut on the all weather don’t always catch the eye, but Kempton debutants for Hannon have an excellent strike rate on their next run. 3rd starts sees a dip, but 4th starts go back into profit with a good strike rate. Kempton debutants may offer some value in future starts.
 
Debut at Lingfield
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
3
30
10.0
-£18.55
-61.8
3rd career start
3
29
10.3
-£18.85
-65.0
4th career start
5
25
20.0
+£0.67
+2.7
 
Lingfield debutants look worth avoiding on their next two starts – losses of over 60p in the £ for 2nd and 3rd career starts is very poor.
 
Debut at Newbury
 
135 2yos made their debut at Newbury – more than any other course.
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
23
130
17.7
-£3.51
-2.7
3rd career start
23
123
18.7
+£90.48
+73.6
4th career start
27
123
22.0
+£34.01
+27.6
 
Best course stats to date, especially 3rd and 4th career starts. The results improve if you ignore the 68 qualifiers that did not run as a 2yo. Horses that raced as a 3yo produced an overall loss combining their next three starts.
 
Debut at Newmarket
 
88 of Hannon’s 2yos made their debut at HQ.
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
20
87
23.0
-£10.14
-11.7
3rd career start
13
82
15.9
+£2.40
+2.9
4th career start
12
74
16.2
-£22.19
-30.0
 
A good strike rate on their subsequent run but losses were made if you had backed all of them. A small profit made on 3rd career starts, but overall the figures are poorer than I would have expected. I would have thought he would have sent some decent 2yos to Newmarket on debut with the scope to progress quickly in future starts.
 
Debut at Salisbury
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
12
67
17.9
-£20.30
-30.3
3rd career start
10
65
15.4
-£35.01
-53.9
4th career start
4
61
6.6
-£44.92
-73.6
 
Hannon sends a fair proportion of his 2yos to Salisbury for their debut, but clearly these animals are not the cream of the crop. Significant losses on all three subsequent starts and hence these are runners to avoid.
 
Debut at Windsor
 
107 runners made their debut at Windsor – Hannon’s 2yos are a standing dish at the Berkshire course.
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
20
105
19.0
-£10.51
-10.0
3rd career start
19
104
18.3
-£12.67
-12.2
4th career start
14
99
14.1
-£47.52
-48.0
 
Solid enough figures for 2nd and 3rd career starts, but the performance drops off significantly on the 4th start.
 
Finally, does the jockey who takes their first ride make any difference in terms of subsequent performance?
 
Jockey on debut – Dane O’Neill
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
8
41
19.5
-£17.71
-43.2
3rd career start
8
39
20.5
-£0.55
-1.4
4th career start
2
37
5.4
-£29.88
-80.7
 
Strike rate is decent enough on 2nd start but significantly losses have accrued. 4th career starts have been dreadful.
 
Jockey on debut – Pat Dobbs
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
25
124
20.2
+£89.55
+72.2
3rd career start
24
117
20.5
-£3.32
-2.8
4th career start
20
107
18.7
+£27.58
+25.8
 
Pat Dobbs is a regular pilot for Hannon these days and the subsequent results of him riding on 2yo debut are very good. Perhaps his booking on debut does not catch the eye as much as say Richard Hughes and this prejudices opinion slightly in future races.
 
Jockey on debut – Ryan Moore
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
24
134
17.9
-£41.59
-31.0
3rd career start
15
129
11.6
-£59.44
-46.1
4th career start
24
119
20.2
-£17.64
-14.8
 
As one of the top jockeys, a booking of Ryan Moore on debut may well catch the eye. Indeed, even if the debut run is not a good one, some punters will note down the fact the Moore was on board first time up. However, it does really seem to be a plus in terms of the next three starts with significant losses on their next two starts and average losses on the third (4th career start).
 
Jockey on debut – Richard Hughes
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
43
235
18.3
-£76.85
-32.7
3rd career start
48
226
21.2
+£68.21
+30.2
4th career start
38
222
17.1
-£61.80
-27.8
 
Richard Hughes has ridden the most 2yo debutants for Hannon. A mixed picture though in terms of future results – from a profit/loss perspective anyway. 3rd career starts have provided a profit but this is down to a couple of decent priced winners.
 
 
Jockey on debut – All other jockeys
 
Career start
Wins
Runs
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
2nd career start
37
170
21.8
+£62.85
+37.0
3rd career start
23
157
14.6
-£26.02
-16.6
4th career start
23
147
15.6
-£11.25
-7.7
 
These figures are interesting – profits on 2nd career starts and these runners are probably a bit of value. It would be interesting to see if a switch to say Dobbs or Hughes would make a difference and that is something I plan to look into in the future.
 
I hope this article has given you some food for thought and make you look at Hannon’s debutants in a more informed light.

 








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