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Race Profiling Wolverhampton 7f Handicaps


 

Race Profiling – Wolverhampton 7f Handicaps

 

This winter there are going to be numerous all weather meetings at Wolverhampton and there will also be a significant number of 7f open handicaps (3yo+/4yo+) – around 40 such races in fact. In this article I am going to use race profiling as a method to try and help pinpoint the key characteristics that will ultimately offer more chance of finding the winner of such races. I have taken data from Jan 2010 to the middle of July 2012 (when I started researching the article) – all profits/losses are shown to traditional Starting Price.

 

Betting Market - Let us look at market factors first in these 7f handicaps:

 

Market Position

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Favourite

47

189

24.9

-£18.59

-9.8

2nd favourite

25

163

15.3

-£38.25

-23.5

3rd favourite

18

165

10.9

-£48.50

-29.4

4th in the betting

17

175

9.7

-£34.00

-19.4

5th in the betting

23

170

13.5

+£66.50

+39.1

6th in the betting

13

162

8.0

+£8.00

+4.9

7th + in the betting

23

654

3.5

-£230.50

-35.2

 

There is not a strong market bias here – favourites have an average record for this type of race, but 2nd and 3rd favourites have under-performed compared with the handicap ‘norm’. This is good from a race profiling perspective as market influences clearly are not as strong as they usually are.

 

Draw - Now a look at the draw and whether that has much of an effect(NB. max of 12 runners over this C&D):

 

Draw

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1

19

166

11.5

-£24.38

-14.7

2

20

166

12.1

-£35.33

-21.3

3

19

166

11.5

-£37.50

-22.6

4

21

166

12.7

+£54.50

+32.8

5

22

164

13.4

-£18.55

-11.3

6

19

161

11.8

-£6.04

-3.8

7

11

158

7.0

-£57.67

-36.5

8

13

151

8.6

-£47.21

-31.3

9

10

140

7.1

-£45.67

-32.6

10

4

125

3.2

-£75.00

-60.0

11

7

82

8.5

+£25.00

+30.5

12

1

33

3.0

-£27.50

-83.3

 

By looking at the strike rates, it is clear there is some draw bias at work here. It may not be one of the strongest around, but it is clearly significant. The cut-off point looks to be draw 6 – horses drawn 6 or lower have a combined strike rate of 13.4%; draws 7 to 12 have a combined strike rate of 6.7%. Essentially, you would definitely prefer your horse to be drawn 1 to 6.

 

Age – now let us see if there has been any age bias:

 

Age

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

21

229

9.2

-£69.09

-30.2

4

61

541

11.3

-£26.17

-4.8

5

41

387

10.6

-£30.25

-7.8

6

22

241

9.1

-£60.13

-25.0

7

12

130

9.2

-£42.21

-32.5

8

6

83

7.2

-£23.50

-28.3

9 or older

3

67

4.5

-£44.00

-65.7

 

There certainly seems to be an edge for 4 and 5 year olds – higher strike rates and significantly lower losses. Indeed you would have made a blind profit backing both 4 and 5 year old runners at Betfair SP during this time frame. Horses aged 9 and older have struggled.

 

LTO course – due to space I am not going to put all courses into a table, but am going to highlight two key points. Firstly, horses that raced at Wolverhampton LTO have virtually broken even thanks to 73 wins from 608 runners (SR 12%) showing only a small loss of £19.37 (ROI -3.2%). Secondly, horses switching from the Polytrack at Kempton have a very poor record scoring just 15 times from 249 (SR 6%) for a huge loss of £173.75 (ROI -69.8%). Overall, it is better to have either run on turf LTO, or run at Wolverhampton, than have run at the other three all weather tracks.

 

Position LTO - A look now at LTO finishing positions to see they have made a difference:

 

Position LTO

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

26

149

17.5

+£1.87

+1.3

2nd

17

146

11.6

-£42.25

-28.9

3rd

28

173

16.2

+£16.16

+9.3

4th

16

159

10.1

-£30.17

-19.0

5th

19

154

12.3

-£16.32

-10.6

6th

13

162

8.0

-£58.50

-36.1

7th or worse

47

733

6.4

-£164.12

-22.4

 

As we can see, horses that finished first or third LTO have actually made a small profit. In general a top 5 finish LTO seems preferable.

 

Jockeys – there is not sufficient data to look at individual jockeys but there it is worth looking at the difference between pro jockeys and claiming jockeys:

 

Jockey claim

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

None (pro)

133

1214

11.0

-£95.54

-7.9

3lb

13

174

7.5

-£79.55

-45.7

5lb

13

168

7.7

-£50.50

-30.1

7lb

7

122

5.7

-£69.75

-57.2

These figures are certainly interesting. All claiming jockeys have a poor record in these races and it is clear an experienced professional jockey on board is a plus.

 

Weight – onto weight next and I have grouped them initially by weight rank:

 

Weight rank

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Top weight

39

239

16.3

+£54.67

+22.9

2nd in weights

21

163

12.9

+£6.33

+3.9

3rd in weights

11

174

6.3

-£103.50

-59.5

4th in weights

20

164

12.2

-£35.00

-21.3

5th in weights

17

149

11.4

-£1.38

-0.9

6th in weights

18

158

11.4

-£19.05

-12.1

7th in weights

11

162

6.8

-£63.92

-39.5

8th in weights

14

135

10.4

+£23.08

+17.1

9th in weights

7

128

5.5

-£52.20

-40.8

10th in weights

5

112

4.5

-£76.00

-67.9

11th in weights

2

68

2.9

-£14.38

-21.1

12th in weights

1

26

3.9

-£14.00

-53.9

 

It is interesting to note the excellent performance of top weights – not only comfortably the best strike rate, but a tidy profit to boot. Second in the weights have done pretty well also – shame the top weight bias is let down by the figures for third in the weights. However, if we split the weights into two as we did with the draw we do see a weight bias:

 

Weight rank groups

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st to 6th in weights

126

1047

12.0

-£97.93

-9.4%

7th to 12th in weights

40

631

6.3

-£197.42

-31.2%

 

The top six in the weights have a far superior record to the bottom six.

 

 

CONCLUSION – it is clear that there are several patterns or trends to these races. Let me give you a summary of the positives and negatives:

 

Positives

 

Bottom six draws                                                                                                                                        

Top six in the weights

Age 4 or 5

Ran at Wolverhampton LTO

Won LTO

Ridden by pro jockey

 

Negatives

 

Drawn 7 or higher

7th or higher in the weights

Age 9 or older

Ran at Kempton LTO

Finished 6th or worse LTO

Ridden by claiming jockey

 

How best to use race profiling is up to the individual. For those looking for shortcuts you could produce a system based on certain aspects of the data. A backing system could be easily created by focusing on some of the positive trends; likewise a laying system could be created by utilizing some of the main negatives. My personal preference though, in terms of how best to use race profiling, is to use the positives and negatives to create a shortlist. The shortlist should only contain 3 or 4 runners at the most and from there you could use more conventional form study or possibly speed figures to help you pinpoint a final selection. Whatever you decide, race profiling is definitely an interesting slant on ‘attacking’ a race.

 

David Renham   

 








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