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Quick Returners Over The Sticks


 

Quick Returners Over The Sticks

By David Renham

 

In flat racing, there have been a long been an advantage to horses returning to the track after a short break. However, is that the case in NH racing? Overall horses returning to the track within 10 days win 11.2% of races and overall losses stand at -26%. So not an earth shattering start! However, some trainers are definitely perform better with quick returners than others.

 

To begin this article, here is a list of the most successful trainers in terms of strike rate with horses returning to the track within 10 days. The data for this table, and indeed the whole article has been taken from 2005 to end of November 2009. I have restricted qualifying trainers to those who have had at least 25 qualifiers:

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

G Swinbank

9

26

34.6

+£4.33

+16.7

J J Quinn

13

44

29.6

+£50.25

+114.2

P Webber

7

25

28.0

+£28.57

+114.3

A King

22

80

27.5

-£16.14

-20.2

C Mann

11

40

27.5

-£0.33

-0.8

P Blockley

13

49

26.5

+£11.23

+22.9

T Vaughan

23

87

26.4

-£40.85

-47.0

Miss V Williams

64

253

25.3

-£10.29

-4.1

P Nicholls

49

196

25.0

-£23.77

-12.1

R Ford

11

48

22.9

-£0.42

-0.9

D McCain Jnr

15

67

22.4

+£16.51

+24.6

J Lambe

8

36

22.2

+£5.75

+16.0

K Bishop

9

41

22.0

+£7.20

+17.6

D Pipe

41

193

21.2

+£10.16

+5.3

Jim Best

16

76

21.1

-£35.00

-46.1

L Lungo

8

38

21.1

+£6.97

+18.3

C Egerton

6

29

20.7

+£36.33

+125.3

J Mackie

11

54

20.4

+£12.63

+23.4

Mrs E Slack

12

60

20.0

+£8.46

+14.1

Dr R Newland

13

67

19.4

+£20.70

+30.9

P Bowen

40

208

19.2

+£73.10

+35.2

Nick Williams

5

26

19.2

+£15.08

+58.0

Mrs A Thorpe

29

153

19.0

-£7.71

-5.0

 

Clearly some trainers are more adept at bringing their charges back to the track after a short break. All the trainers in the table are worth close scrutiny when sending out a runner to the track within 10 days of its last run. Having said that, I find it remarkable that Tim Vaughan has made such substantial losses despite such a good strike rate (better than 1 win in 4). However, the biggest winning price he has had is just 5/2 which clearly tells a story.

 

As with any basic table such as this, I always go into greater depth to see if I can find better / most consistent angles. One trainer I will personally keep an eye out for in the future is John Quinn. His £50.24 profit has not been skewed by any huge priced winners and he has also saddled 12 placed horses giving him a very solid win and placed percentage of 57%. Added to that, he has had success in all race types - chases, hurdles and bumpers. I would also focus on horses that did NOT win last time out as his record improves to 12 wins from 35 (SR 34.3%) for a profit of £57.00 (ROI +162.9%).

 

Venetia Williams has made a small overall loss with these quick returners, but if you focus on those who have had a very short break (5 days or less), her record improves to a highly impressive 18 wins from 51 runners (SR 35.3%) for a profit of £23.04 (ROI +45.2%).Of these 51 runners, 13 ran with a penalty and 7 went onto win again – so this is something else worth noting.

 

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls, like Williams, made an overall loss, but again if you focus on runners that are coming back after a break of only 5 days or less he turns in an impressive performance – 20 wins from 49 (SR 40.8%) for a profit of £31.04 (ROI +63.3%).

 

David Pipe is another trainer where it is has been worthwhile doing so more in depth research. If you focus on quick returners in handicaps only, his record improves to 30 wins from 114 (SR 26.3%) for a profit of £52.44 (ROI +46.0). When these circumstances arise, his runners deserve close scrutiny.

 

Finally from this list of positive trainers I want to look in greater depth at the record of Alan King. Overall he has made a loss, but if you restrict his runners to non handicap hurdles we get 15 wins from 38 runners (SR 39.5%) for a profit of £11.04 (ROI +29.0%).

 

Of course for every ‘positive’ result in any research we tend to get more negatives. Therefore I have produced a list of trainers that have performed poorly with National Hunt horses returning to the track with 10 days.

 

Once again I have used 25 runs per trainer as the cut off point and the table is shown overleaf:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

T Easterby

3

61

4.9

-£38.50

-63.1

Miss L V Russell

5

103

4.9

-£77.30

-75.1

Miss H Dalton

2

44

4.6

-£31.00

-70.5

D Thompson

2

46

4.4

-£31.50

-68.5

P Butler

2

46

4.4

-£18.00

-39.1

Mrs H Graham

1

25

4.0

-£14.00

-56.0

M Sowersby

3

77

3.9

-£56.50

-73.4

W Coltherd

2

52

3.9

+£4.50

+8.7

E Creighton

1

26

3.9

-£18.50

-71.2

M Gillard

1

26

3.9

-£21.50

-82.7

Miss J Davis

1

26

3.9

£8.00

30.8

Dr P Pritchard

2

53

3.8

-£9.00

-17.0

S Burrough

1

27

3.7

-£18.00

-66.7

J Jenkins

1

28

3.6

-£26.00

-92.9

O Brennan

1

28

3.6

-£26.64

-95.1

S Brookshaw

2

59

3.4

-£43.00

-72.9

M Mullineaux

2

60

3.3

-£15.00

-25.0

W Storey

1

31

3.2

-£12.00

-38.7

D Carroll

1

32

3.1

-£19.00

-59.4

Mrs L Jewell

1

32

3.1

-£28.00

-87.5

A Crook

1

33

3.0

-£25.00

-75.8

D Gandolfo

1

34

2.9

-£29.50

-86.8

M Wigham

1

34

2.9

£7.00

20.6

K W Hogg

1

35

2.9

-£30.00

-85.7

M Appleby

1

43

2.3

-£39.75

-92.4

Mrs S Bradburne

1

43

2.3

-£40.00

-93.0

B Storey

1

46

2.2

-£29.00

-63.0

C J Down

1

48

2.1

-£35.00

-72.9

M Gingell

0

89

0.0

-£89.00

-100.0

H Manners

0

52

0.0

-£52.00

-100.0

T Wall

0

40

0.0

-£40.00

-100.0

N Wilson

0

39

0.0

-£39.00

-100.0

F Murtagh

0

32

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

C Kellett

0

31

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

 

All in all, all these trainers should be avoided when they run a charge of theirs within 10 days of its last run.

 

Moving away from trainers I wanted to see if there was any other useful data connected with quick returners. Let us break down into the three main race categories (see overleaf):

 

 

Race type

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

Hurdle

1019

10069

10.1

-£2846.24

-28.3

Chase

787

6086

12.9

-£1363.75

-22.4

Bumper

22

281

7.8

-£128.00

-45.6


Somewhat surprisingly chase races have provided the best results, albeit narrowly. You would have thought chasers use up much more energy in a race and hence need a decent break after running. Very few bumper runners are turned out again quickly, but if they are they look best avoiding with losses equating to over 45 pence in the £.

 

Let us look at the betting market next:

 

Market position

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

Favourite

788

2313

34.1

-£112.10

-4.8

2nd favourite

348

1688

20.6

-£109.04

-6.5

3rd favourite

217

1623

13.4

-£255.35

-15.7

4th or bigger

474

10812

4.4

-£3861.50

-35.7

 

This is very interesting with the top two in the betting getting very close to breaking even at SP. Clearly the more fancied, fit horses are the ones to concentrate on. My guess is that by using either best odds guaranteed or Betfair, you would probably be able to produce a small profit on the top 2 in the betting. For my last piece of research for this article, I decided to go back to trainers to see which ones performed best when their runners were in the top two in the betting:

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

P Blockley

11

23

47.8

+£9.23

+40.1

Jim Best

16

36

44.4

+£5.00

13.9

T Vaughan

23

56

41.1

-£9.85

-17.6

A King

19

48

39.6

-£8.14

-17.0

D Pipe

36

91

39.6

+£32.03

+35.2

R Ford

8

21

38.1

+£7.58

+36.1

P Bowen

29

77

37.7

+£5.23

+6.8

Miss V Williams

55

149

36.9

+£19.21

+12.9

C Mann

8

22

36.4

+£1.92

+8.7

P Evans

10

29

34.5

+£8.93

+30.8

J Mullins

7

21

33.3

+£9.63

+45.8

 

I will keep a close eye on quick returners from these stables when they start in the first two in the betting.


 

 








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