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Pointers for jockeys


In two recent articles I have discussed horse racing owners and sires. This time it is the turn of the jockey. In general, jockeys are often backed by armchair punters in multiples / accumulators, while the more serious punter probably takes less notice of them. There is little to choose between the very top jocks – of course we all have our favourites, and those who we don’t like, but are there jockeys worth following under specific conditions? Hopefully this article will show you that there are. The data is taken from 1998 to June 4th 2007 and I have chosen 8 of the top jockeys to study:

 

 

Frankie Dettori – the Italian maestro is probably overbet in general, but there are numerous profitable angles as the table indicates:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Brighton

12

39

30.8%

+£21.25

+54.5%

Group 1 races

36

183

19.7%

+£15.63

+8.5%

Heavy ground

19

68

27.9%

+£36.39

+53.5%

G Butler – all races

20

96

20.8%

+£27.63

+28.8%

B Meehan favourites

20

48

41.7%

+£13.96

+29.1%

M Channon favourites

15

33

45.5%

+£8.68

+26.3%

P Chapple-Hyam favourites

5

6

83.3%

+£6.36

+106.0%

 

I consider Dettori to be a good judge of pace and hence this may be why he has a good record on heavy ground. He has also been successful on many front runners so this is another angle to consider. The Gerald Butler stat is one to be slightly wary of however, as from 2004 to 2006 he rode just 3 winners from 26.

 

RichardHills – has ridden over 1800 winners worldwide including over 80 win in Group races. Five main areas to note:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Beverley

9

38

23.7%

+£10.49

+27.6%

Class 6 or lower

14

75

18.7%

+£18.01

+24.0%

Saeed Bin Suroor – all races

16

74

21.6%

+£19.59

+26.5%

Haydock favourites

12

22

54.5%

+£8.26

+37.5%

Brighton favourites

7

11

63.6%

+£9.59

+87.2%

 

For the record, he is also worth noting in very small fields as he is fairly shrewd tactically.

 

Neil Callan – has a consistent record and he seems to ride well on easy ground as the table below indicates:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Ripon

22

143

15.4%

+£75.89

+53.1%

Yarmouth

18

136

13.2%

+£90.37

+66.4%

Soft ground

47

442

10.6%

+£50.88

+11.5%

Heavy ground

14

123

11.4%

+£37.62

+30.6%

 

 

 

Philip Robinson – is a jockey that would be near the top of my list of favourite jocks and he has several angles worth noting:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Ripon

18

67

26.9%

+£30.31

+45.2%

Salisbury

13

48

27.1%

+£36.48

+76.0%

C G Cox – all races

30

155

19.4%

+£86.04

+55.5%

Goodwood – 2yo maidens

6

21

28.6%

+£27.12

+129.1%

Pontefract – 2yo maidens

10

22

45.5%

+£29.36

+133.5%

Sheikh Mohammed (owner) – 2yo maidens

10

34

29.4%

+£12.87

+37.9%

 

Some excellent stats when riding 2yo maidens, and it is interesting to see his strike rate when riding for Clive Cox is near to 20%, when Cox’s overall strike rate is just 9%.

 

Jamie Spencer – is happiest holding up his mounts and coming with a late run – hence there are times when he misjudges a race and some racing pundits get frustrated with him when he leaves it too late. He is not a jockey that I personally like because of his race riding tactics.

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Ripon

14

58

24.1%

+£25.38

+43.8%

J Best – all races

6

14

42.9%

+£17.70

+126.4%

P J Hobbs – all races

7

24

29.2%

+£52.50

+218.8%

Sheikh Mohammed – owner

28

99

28.3%

+£34.02

+34.4%

Folkestone favourites

9

17

52.9%

+£8.56

+50.4%

 

The Folkestone favourites stat becomes more impressive when you consider that Spencer finished placed on 7 of the remaining 8 favourites. Hence, he has had 16 win and placed favourites from 17 (SR 94.1%). However, one stat to be aware of is that he has ridden just 1 winner from 48 at Chester.

 

Paul Hanagan – is a capable jockey that goes about his business without too much fuss. He rides primarily for Richard Fahey.

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

B Hills – all races

8

27

29.6%

+£27.41

+101.5%

I Semple – all races

20

113

17.7%

+£97.94

+86.7%

R Fahey – Beverley

25

125

20.0%

+£40.51

+32.4%

R Fahey – Fillies

61

378

16.1%

+£69.95

+18.5%

 

Hanagan also has a decent record on heavy ground thanks to a strike rate of 17.5%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seb Sanders – has been in excellent form this year and looks likely to go close to winning the jockey’s title. He has some excellent stats as the table shows:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Ayr

24

106

22.6%

+£61.02

+57.6%

Yarmouth

50

277

18.1%

+£99.47

+35.9%

2nd favourites

175

738

23.7%

+£93.75

+12.7%

J Spearing – all races

9

29

31.0%

+£34.13

+117.7%

P D Cundell – all races

15

44

34.1%

+£40.75

+92.6%

R Guest – all races

23

144

16.0%

+£63.01

+43.8%

Miss K Rausing (owner)

13

58

22.4%

+£54.62

+94.2%

M Prescott – Chester

8

17

47.1%

+£6.88

+40.5%

M Prescott – Sandown

10

23

43.5%

+£22.25

+96.7%

 

He also rides Brighton very well with 87 winners and a 20% strike rate, and he has made some good profits at York despite a moderate strike rate of 11%.

 

Kerrin McEvoy – is rapidly becoming one of the most sought after jockeys in this country. His record at present is excellent and there are plenty of profitable angles to note:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Goodwood

14

71

19.7%

+£37.62

+53.0%

Salisbury

10

32

31.2%

+£47.00

+146.9%

Female Only Races

41

204

20.1%

+£119.01

+58.3%

Favourites

81

221

36.7%

+£20.30

+9.2%

Top 4 in the betting

181

719

25.2%

+£150.30

+20.9%

2yos

60

312

19.2%

+£60.33

19.3%

Debutants

28

157

17.8%

+£65.51

41.7%

Saeed Bin Suroor – all races

77

315

24.4%

+£48.92

15.5%

 

There are plenty of other positives for Mc Evoy, and of all the jockeys analysed, he looks right at the top of the list.








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