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Articles >> horse-racing >> Pace In A Race Revisited Pace In A Race Revisited by David Renham
I have not written about my favourite racing angle ‘pace’ for a while so I felt it was time to revisit it. For any new readers I’ll just go back over a few points I have mentioned in articles before. The data for this article has been taken from last three full seasons of flat racing (’08-’10).
In terms of pace/running styles, I tend to split all runners into three – those who take the lead early/dispute the lead early; those who track the pace; and those who are held up in midfield or at the back of the pack. I believe that knowing how a race is likely to “pan out” in terms of a “pace angle” can give punters a valuable insight for a variety of reasons:
1. Some course and distances do strongly favour horses that front run / race up with the pace; likewise there are some where front runners really struggle. Knowing this information can give you the extra confidence to back a selection, or indeed steer you clear of another.
2. Knowing how a race is likely to be run in terms of how much pace there is the race makes it easier to spot horses that may get a soft lead for example. Horses that get a soft lead have a much better chance of winning as their jockey should be able to set the ideal pace from the front. Conversely you may have a race with 3 or 4 confirmed front runners. In this case, the chances are that the front runners will go off too quickly as they try to dominate each other, and hence the race is often set up for a horse coming from off the pace.
3. In big field straight course handicaps where the field splits into two distinct groups, there is sometimes an ‘advantage’ to one side in terms of pace. With confirmed front runners or pace setters on one particular side, there is more chance of a truly run race and hence one would expect the side with “better pace” to generally out-perform the other. Unfortunately this is not an exact science but it can give you some useful clues.
4. Front runners over shorter distances tend to trade lower “in running”; likewise hold up horses tend to trade higher “in running”. Knowing what running style a horse has can give you an “in running” edge over other traders.
Therefore, understanding pace / running styles can give you a useful advantage over fellow punters.
This article continues and provides a lot more information about pace including loads of stats for various courses.
You can read it with a free membership of PunterProfits.
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