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Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of October with data taken from 2003 to 2009. October sees the National Hunt season really click into gear.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Oct 03-09) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
It is quite a useful exercise at this juncture to compare their October strike rate with their overall (12 month) strike rate. This table makes interesting reading:
Every single trainer has a better strike rate in October than they do overall – clearly it is not a problem for these trainers to get their runners fit at this early stage of the season.
Paul Nicholls who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his October performances – his lowest strike rate for the month was in 2009 and that was a still a respectable 24.3%. Nicky Henderson always starts the season well and his runners always require a second glance. One trainer that I will keep a close eye on is Emma Lavelle – she had made a profit in 4 of the last 5 Octobers.
I often focus on the ‘best’ performing trainers in these articles, but it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (October 03-09) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. The highest profile trainer in this list is Ferdy Murphy – he is traditional a ‘slower-starter’ to the season. His October strike rate of 4.4% compares very poorly with his overall one of 12.2%.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in October since 2003:
All chases (October 03-09) – 25 runs minimum (SR 18%+)
Paul Nicholls tops the list again and with his chasers he sneaks into profit. His novice chasers win just under 50% of the time but due to most being short prices profits are still modest at around +12%. Ian Williams has done well with his chasers and it should be noted that if you focused on non handicap chases only his record becomes 7 wins from just 13 runners (SR 53.8%) for a profit of £43.40 (ROI +333.8%). Nigel Twiston-Davies does well with runners coming off a break of 150 days or more scoring with 29% of his chasers for a profit of £30.45 (ROI +28.5%). Indeed he does extremely well at the other end of the spectrum with chasers returning within 14 days – 11 wins from 23 (SR 47.8%) for a profit of £19.40 (ROI +84.3%).
All hurdle races (October 03-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Nicky Henderson tops the list this time – interestingly his handicap hurdle record shines through with 12 wins from 32 (SR 37.5%) for a profit of £24.90 (ROI +77.8%). Indeed, his highest priced winner has been 6/1 so no big winners skewing the figures. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with horses making their career debut in a hurdle race at this time of year – of the 15 debutants, 7 have won.
All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.
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