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October Trainers 2012


 

October Trainers by David Renham

 

Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of October with data taken from 2006 to 2011. October sees the National Hunt season really click into gear.

 

This article is going to be slightly different to the normal ones as I am going to include all trainers in each table rather than focusing on the very good and the very bad.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

All races (Oct 06-11) – 50 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Paul Nicholls

89

312

28.5

-£11.46

-3.7

Nicky Henderson

28

120

23.3

-£21.60

-18.0

John Quinn

16

72

22.2

+£33.27

+46.2

Emma Lavelle

25

117

21.4

+£49.72

+42.5

Nigel Twiston-Davies

92

434

21.2

+£118.09

+27.2

Charlie Longsdon

29

139

20.9

+£11.62

+8.4

Gordon Elliott

11

53

20.8

+£4.42

+8.3

Keith Goldsworthy

13

67

19.4

+£65.22

+97.4

J J Lambe

11

57

19.3

-£11.13

-19.5

Tim Vaughan

36

191

18.9

-£38.23

-20.0

Philip Hobbs

66

354

18.6

-£15.51

-4.4

Alan King

38

214

17.8

-£56.38

-26.3

David Bridgwater

9

51

17.7

-£12.92

-25.3

Ian Williams

19

110

17.3

-£1.30

-1.2

Jonjo O'Neill

79

489

16.2

-£77.56

-15.9

Evan Williams

48

318

15.1

-£39.16

-12.3

Colin Tizzard

19

132

14.4

£20.02

15.2

Michael Scudamore

18

128

14.1

+£87.00

+68.0

Kim Bailey

12

86

14.0

-£13.13

-15.3

Malcolm Jefferson

17

122

13.9

-£30.94

-25.4

Andy Turnell

11

79

13.9

-£5.25

-6.7

Nick Gifford

7

51

13.7

+£6.75

+13.2

Oliver Sherwood

14

103

13.6

-£10.30

-10.0

Keith Reveley

10

74

13.5

-£1.63

-2.2

Alex Hales

7

52

13.5

+£1.88

+3.6

Alison Thorpe

12

90

13.3

-£24.33

-27.0

Donald McCain

35

271

12.9

-£53.31

-19.7

Chris Bealby

11

88

12.5

+£20.00

+22.7

Tom George

11

90

12.2

-£33.35

-37.1

Nicky Richards

15

123

12.2

-£45.69

-37.2

David Pipe

33

274

12.0

-£119.06

-43.5

Nick Williams

8

68

11.8

-£17.18

-25.3

Sue Smith

25

217

11.5

-£39.17

-18.1

Brian Ellison

6

53

11.3

-£27.27

-51.5

Martin Keighley

10

89

11.2

-£34.60

-38.9

Gary Moore

17

153

11.1

-£48.67

-31.8

Henrietta Knight

10

90

11.1

-£32.86

-36.5

John Wade

7

63

11.1

+£2.38

+3.8

Charlie Mann

10

93

10.8

-£16.25

-17.5

Richard Guest

10

93

10.8

+£15.50

+16.7

Neil Mulholland

9

84

10.7

-£21.25

-25.3

Chris Gordon

7

68

10.3

+£10.25

+15.1

Lucinda Russell

20

197

10.2

-£27.17

-13.8

Bob Buckler

9

92

9.8

+£20.88

+22.7

Peter Bowen

21

220

9.6

-£72.27

-32.9

Michael Chapman

8

89

9.0

-£19.63

-22.1

John O'Shea

5

57

8.8

-£7.64

-13.4

Micky Hammond

6

69

8.7

-£32.25

-46.7

James Moffatt

6

72

8.3

+£2.00

+2.8

Paul Webber

8

102

7.8

-£61.55

-60.3

Bill Turner

4

51

7.8

-£32.00

-62.8

Neil King

5

64

7.8

-£13.00

-20.3

Milton Harris

10

130

7.7

-£56.38

-43.4

Richard Lee

5

65

7.7

-£31.13

-47.9

Henry Daly

7

94

7.5

-£42.40

-45.1

James Frost

6

84

7.1

-£31.50

-37.5

George Moore

5

70

7.1

-£23.25

-33.2

Maurice Barnes

5

72

6.9

+£31.00

+43.1

Robin Dickin

5

72

6.9

-£40.25

-55.9

Martin Todhunter

7

101

6.9

-£6.75

-6.7

Seamus Mullins

8

125

6.4

-£69.50

-55.6

Matt Sheppard

4

64

6.3

-£35.00

-54.7

Brendan Powell

12

195

6.2

-£108.25

-55.5

Nigel Hawke

4

71

5.6

-£11.00

-15.5

Tim Easterby

5

90

5.6

-£58.00

-64.4

Michael Easterby

3

59

5.1

-£20.00

-33.9

Tony Carroll

5

102

4.9

-£47.75

-46.8

Robert Johnson

4

84

4.8

+£6.50

+7.7

Ron Hodges

3

72

4.2

-£40.50

-56.3

Richard Phillips

2

51

3.9

-£37.50

-73.5

Caroline Bailey

2

53

3.8

-£38.50

-72.6

Chris Grant

3

83

3.6

-£66.63

-80.3

Ferdy Murphy

6

210

2.9

-£181.50

-86.4

Venetia Williams

3

112

2.7

-£89.50

-79.9

Barry Murtagh

1

61

1.6

-£52.50

-86.1

John Cornwall

0

57

0.0

-£57.00

-100.0

 

Paul Nicholls who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his October performances. His lowest strike rate for October was in 2009 which was 24.3%; his highest strike rate being 34.5% in 2008. The market has been an excellent guide to the chances of his runners with just 1 winner priced bigger than 8/1. His best results have been in novice chases where he has saddled 19 winners from just 37 runners (SR 51.4%) for a profit of £15.28 (ROI +41.3%). In fact novice events generally have produced good results – in novice hurdles his record reads a tidy 28 wins from 89 runners (SR 31.5%) for a profit of £18.74 (ROI +21.1%). One other point worth noting is his record at Exeter in this month – 11 wins from 24 overall and 6 wins, 2 placed from 9 in chases.

 

One trainer that I keep a close eye on in this month is Emma Lavelle – she had made a profit in 5 of the last 6 Octobers. She does not saddle that many runners, but clearly they are ready to go at this time of year. She has a very good record with horses coming back off their long summer break. Runners off the track for 5 months or more have produced 14 winners from 45 (SR 31.1%) for a profit of £57.85 (ROI +128.6%).

Nigel Twiston-Davies also tends to start the season well. He has made a profit in 4 of the last 6 Octobers and the two years he didn’t his losses were minimal – less than 2% in both years (2007 and 2009). As with Lavelle, he has a good record with horses making their seasonal debuts – horses off the track for 5 months or more have provided 6 winning Octobers in a row for the stable with the overall figures reading an impressive 43 winners from 167 (SR 25.7%) for a profit of £70.18 (ROI +42%). He also has a good record in maiden races at this time of year – 7 wins from 29 (SR 24.1%); while he is 9 from 27 (SR 33.3%) at Towcester and 8 wins from 26 (SR 30.8%) at Stratford.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in October since 2006:

 

All chases (Oct 06-11) – 30 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Charlie Longsdon

17

52

32.7

+£46.13

+88.7

Paul Nicholls

37

114

32.5

-£5.41

-4.7

Ian Williams

8

32

25.0

+£19.90

+62.2

Nigel Twiston-Davies

50

210

23.8

+£29.55

+14.1

Emma Lavelle

10

42

23.8

+£23.42

+55.8

Andy Turnell

8

34

23.5

+£16.25

+47.8

Chris Bealby

7

30

23.3

+£22.00

+73.3

Nicky Henderson

7

30

23.3

-£6.50

-21.7

Michael Scudamore

12

52

23.1

+£44.75

+86.1

Colin Tizzard

13

69

18.8

+£28.15

+40.8

David Pipe

16

85

18.8

-£11.25

-13.2

Alan King

9

48

18.8

+£2.56

+5.3

Malcolm Jefferson

8

47

17.0

+£2.82

+6.0

Martin Keighley

5

30

16.7

-£13.85

-46.2

Nicky Richards

7

43

16.3

-£8.32

-19.3

Jonjo O'Neill

31

193

16.1

-£20.49

-10.6

Henrietta Knight

5

32

15.6

-£4.08

-12.8

Neil Mulholland

5

32

15.6

+£3.00

+9.4

Tim Vaughan

8

52

15.4

-£24.57

-47.3

Gary Moore

6

41

14.6

+£2.56

+6.2

Kim Bailey

5

35

14.3

-£5.50

-15.7

Lucinda Russell

14

99

14.1

+£7.95

+8.0

Philip Hobbs

18

129

14.0

-£35.81

-27.8

John Wade

4

30

13.3

+£7.75

+25.8

Oliver Sherwood

4

31

12.9

-£14.29

-46.1

P Monteith

5

39

12.8

-£17.42

-44.7

Tom George

6

47

12.8

-£16.02

-34.1

Evan Williams

15

123

12.2

-£34.75

-28.3

Donald McCain

10

83

12.1

-£22.88

-27.6

Richard Lee

4

34

11.8

-£9.13

-26.8

Bob Buckler

5

46

10.9

+£35.00

+76.1

Charlie Mann

4

37

10.8

-£10.25

-27.7

Henry Daly

4

39

10.3

-£2.50

-6.4

Peter Bowen

10

100

10.0

-£32.68

-32.7

Robin Dickin

3

31

9.7

-£12.75

-41.1

Sue Smith

10

104

9.6

-£29.67

-28.5

Nick Williams

3

32

9.4

-£9.00

-28.1

Richard Guest

3

34

8.8

-£13.00

-38.2

Micky Hammond

3

35

8.6

-£16.00

-45.7

Seamus Mullins

4

48

8.3

-£21.75

-45.3

Martin Todhunter

4

50

8.0

+£6.25

+12.5

Milton Harris

3

41

7.3

-£28.50

-69.5

Paul Webber

3

44

6.8

-£21.70

-49.3

Venetia Williams

3

48

6.3

-£25.50

-53.1

Robert Johnson

2

36

5.6

+£31.00

+86.1

Ferdy Murphy

5

103

4.9

-£81.50

-79.1

Brendan Powell

3

70

4.3

-£58.50

-83.6

John Cornwall

0

51

0.0

-£51.00

-100.0

Tim Easterby

0

31

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

 

Charlie Longsdon tops the list – 5 winning Octobers out of 6 and last year he has 7 wins from 20. He has done particularly well in lower grade races (class 4 or lower) with 13 winners from 32 runners (SR 40.6%) for a healthy return of £51.63 (ROI +161.3%). In running punters should note that when a chaser has taken the early lead from the Longsdon stable they have gone onto win 64% of the time (9 wins from 14).

 

Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with horses returning to the track within 2 weeks – 9 wins from 21 (SR 42.9%) for a profit of £17.15 (ROI +81.7%).

 

Onto hurdle race now:

 

All hurdle races (Oct 06-11) –30 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Richard Fahey

8

30

26.7

+£6.63

+22.1

Paul Nicholls

45

170

26.5

+£0.07

+0.0

John Quinn

14

56

25.0

+£41.52

+74.2

Charles Egerton

7

30

23.3

+£5.39

+18.0

Philip Hobbs

42

200

21.0

+£19.30

+9.7

Tim Vaughan

25

120

20.8

-£17.49

-14.6

Emma Lavelle

14

69

20.3

+£29.43

+42.7

Nicky Henderson

14

72

19.4

-£22.95

-31.9

J J Lambe

8

42

19.1

-£13.88

-33.0

Alan King

28

153

18.3

-£50.94

-33.3

Gordon Elliott

6

33

18.2

-£6.08

-18.4

Nigel Twiston-Davies

33

182

18.1

+£95.92

+52.7

Keith Goldsworthy

7

39

18.0

+£32.48

+83.3

Evan Williams

30

178

16.9

+£4.86

+2.7

Jonjo O'Neill

43

257

16.7

-£28.35

-11.0

Keith Reveley

6

36

16.7

+£13.75

+38.2

Ian Williams

11

71

15.5

-£14.20

-20.0

Alison Thorpe

11

72

15.3

-£11.33

-15.7

Kim Bailey

7

46

15.2

-£2.63

-5.7

Alex Hales

6

40

15.0

+£9.38

+23.4

Nick Williams

5

34

14.7

-£6.17

-18.2

Sheena West

5

35

14.3

-£8.25

-23.6

Tom George

5

36

13.9

-£10.33

-28.7

Donald McCain

20

145

13.8

-£14.93

-10.3

Richard Guest

7

54

13.0

+£33.50

+62.0

Charlie Longsdon

9

71

12.7

-£32.51

-45.8

Oliver Sherwood

8

65

12.3

-£5.01

-7.7

Colin Tizzard

6

49

12.2

+£5.88

+12.0

Dianne Sayer

4

33

12.1

+£6.50

+19.7

Sue Smith

11

91

12.1

-£20.50

-22.5

Charlie Mann

6

51

11.8

-£1.00

-2.0

Malcolm Jefferson

6

52

11.5

-£21.88

-42.1

Henrietta Knight

5

46

10.9

-£16.77

-36.5

Michael Chapman

7

67

10.5

-£7.63

-11.4

George Moore

5

48

10.4

-£1.25

-2.6

Bob Buckler

4

39

10.3

-£7.13

-18.3

James Moffatt

6

59

10.2

+£15.00

+25.4

Nicky Richards

7

70

10.0

-£31.13

-44.5

Martin Keighley

5

51

9.8

-£12.75

-25.0

Maurice Barnes

5

51

9.8

+£52.00

+102.0

Paul Webber

5

51

9.8

-£32.85

-64.4

Neil King

4

41

9.8

+£5.50

+13.4

Tim Easterby

5

53

9.4

-£21.00

-39.6

Nick Gifford

3

32

9.4

-£10.50

-32.8

Bernard Llewellyn

4

43

9.3

-£19.00

-44.2

David Pipe

17

183

9.3

-£101.81

-55.6

Peter Bowen

10

109

9.2

-£39.59

-36.3

Micky Hammond

3

34

8.8

-£16.25

-47.8

Neil Mulholland

4

47

8.5

-£19.25

-41.0

Gary Moore

9

106

8.5

-£61.90

-58.4

Michael Scudamore

5

61

8.2

+£6.25

+10.3

John O'Shea

3

40

7.5

-£20.14

-50.3

Brian Ellison

3

41

7.3

-£28.77

-70.2

Ron Hodges

3

41

7.3

-£9.50

-23.2

Brendan Powell

8

110

7.3

-£49.75

-45.2

Milton Harris

6

86

7.0

-£29.88

-34.7

Andy Turnell

3

43

7.0

-£19.50

-45.4

Tony Carroll

5

75

6.7

-£20.75

-27.7

P Monteith

3

45

6.7

-£9.00

-20.0

Richard Phillips

2

30

6.7

-£16.50

-55.0

Bill Turner

2

31

6.5

-£18.25

-58.9

Henry Daly

3

49

6.1

-£33.90

-69.2

Chris Bealby

3

50

6.0

-£2.00

-4.0

Martin Todhunter

3

50

6.0

-£12.00

-24.0

Lucinda Russell

5

84

6.0

-£24.25

-28.9

Tim Walford

2

35

5.7

+£15.00

+42.9

John Mackie

2

36

5.6

-£25.75

-71.5

James Frost

3

58

5.2

-£31.50

-54.3

Chris Down

2

39

5.1

-£1.00

-2.6

Seamus Mullins

3

62

4.8

-£49.75

-80.2

Chris Gordon

2

42

4.8

-£12.50

-29.8

Robert Johnson

2

44

4.6

-£20.50

-46.6

Roger Curtis

1

30

3.3

-£23.00

-76.7

Barry Murtagh

1

36

2.8

-£27.50

-76.4

Robin Dickin

1

37

2.7

-£32.50

-87.8

Nigel Hawke

1

44

2.3

-£18.00

-40.9

Chris Grant

1

50

2.0

-£47.13

-94.3

Ferdy Murphy

1

96

1.0

-£89.00

-92.7

Venetia Williams

0

58

0.0

-£58.00

-100.0

M J Gingell

0

34

0.0

-£34.00

-100.0

Matt Sheppard

0

34

0.0

-£34.00

-100.0

Mike Sowersby

0

33

0.0

-£33.00

-100.0

Shaun Lycett

0

32

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

Ben Case

0

31

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

Caroline Bailey

0

30

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

 

It should be noted past monthly form does not always follow year in year out. For example, Nicky Henderson headed the SR% when I wrote this article last year (based on data from 2005 to 2010). However, in 2011 he managed just 1 hurdling win from 20. Admittedly he had a further 8 runners placed but it just shows what can happen.

 

John Quinn has a solid looking record with his hurdlers. Indeed if you exclude his novice hurdlers (1 win from 14) he record reads a very impressive 13 wins from 42 (SR 31%) for a profit of £52.77 (ROI +125.6%).

 

All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful with your National Hunt betting this month.

 

 








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