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October Trainers 2011
October Trainers by David Renham
Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of October with data taken from 2005 to 2010. October sees the National Hunt season really click into gear.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Oct 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
Paul Nicholls who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his October performances. His lowest strike rate for October was in 2005 which was 23.3%; his highest strike rate being 34.5% in 2008. The market has been an excellent guide to the chances of his runners with just 1 winner priced bigger than 8/1. His best results have been in novice chases where he has saddled 20 winners from just 34 runners (SR 58.8%) for a profit of £16.21 (ROI +47.7%).
One trainer that I will keep a close eye on is Emma Lavelle – she had made a profit in 5 of the last 6 Octobers. She has a very good record with horses coming back off their long summer break. Runners off the track for 5 months or more have produced 17 winners from 49 (SR 34.7%) for a profit of £65.28 (ROI +133.2%).
The tendency is to focus on the ‘best’ performing trainers, but it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (October 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. The highest profile trainer in this list is Ferdy Murphy – he is traditional a ‘slower-starter’ to the season. His October strike rate of 3.7% compares very poorly with his overall one of 11.6%.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in October since 2005:
All chases (October 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Paul Nicholls tops the list again and with his chasers but he still makes an overall loss, despite the positive figures for his novice chasers (see above). Ian Williams has done well with his chasers and it should be noted that if you focused on non handicap chases only his record becomes 5 wins from just 12 runners. Nigel Twiston-Davies does well with runners coming off a break of 150 days or more scoring with 32% of his chasers for a profit of £36.45 (ROI +32.6%). Indeed he does extremely well at the other end of the spectrum with chasers returning within 14 days – 9 wins from 20 (SR 45%) for a profit of £14.40 (ROI +72%).
All hurdle races (October 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Nicky Henderson tops the list this time – interestingly his handicap hurdle record shines through with 11 wins from 34 (SR 32.4%) for a profit of £17.40 (ROI +51.2%). Indeed, his highest priced winner has been 6/1 so no big winners skewing the figures. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with horses making their career debut in a hurdle race at this time of year – of the 15 debutants, 6 have won.
All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.
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