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October Trainers 2011


October Trainers by David Renham

Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of October with data taken from 2005 to 2010. October sees the National Hunt season really click into gear.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (Oct 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Paul Nicholls 89 318 28.0 -£32.00 -10.1
Nicky Henderson 31 112 27.7 +£1.61 +1.4
Emma Lavelle 28 124 22.6 +£54.14 +43.7
Keith Goldsworthy 13 58 22.4 +£74.22 +128.0
John Quinn 16 72 22.2 +£27.13 +37.7
Nigel Twiston-Davies 96 448 21.4 +£105.71 +23.6
Philip Hobbs 79 385 20.5 -£0.14 +0.0
Nick Gifford 10 51 19.6 +£37.25 +73.0
Alan King 40 211 19.0 -£40.05 -19.0
Andy Turnell 13 72 18.1 +£15.33 +21.3
Charlie Longsdon 15 89 16.9 +£24.08 +27.1
Jonjo O'Neill 85 506 16.8 -£76.79 -15.2
Heather Dalton 10 60 16.7 -£8.68 -14.5
Evan Williams 44 296 14.9 +£6.68 +2.3
Tim Vaughan 20 137 14.6 -£46.01 -33.6
Michael Scudamore 21 145 14.5 +£86.00 +59.3
Ian Williams 18 125 14.4 -£28.05 -22.4

 

Paul Nicholls who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his October performances. His lowest strike rate for October was in 2005 which was 23.3%; his highest strike rate being 34.5% in 2008. The market has been an excellent guide to the chances of his runners with just 1 winner priced bigger than 8/1. His best results have been in novice chases where he has saddled 20 winners from just 34 runners (SR 58.8%) for a profit of £16.21 (ROI +47.7%).

One trainer that I will keep a close eye on is Emma Lavelle – she had made a profit in 5 of the last 6 Octobers. She has a very good record with horses coming back off their long summer break. Runners off the track for 5 months or more have produced 17 winners from 49 (SR 34.7%) for a profit of £65.28 (ROI +133.2%).

The tendency is to focus on the ‘best’ performing trainers, but it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (October 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Chris Grant 4 73 5.5 -£45.63 -62.5
Martin Keighley 3 56 5.4 -£31.00 -55.4
Tim Easterby 5 96 5.2 -£64.00 -66.7
Venetia Williams 6 124 4.8 -£78.75 -63.5
Richard Lee 3 63 4.8 -£42.13 -66.9
Seamus Mullins 6 127 4.7 -£77.75 -61.2
Robert Johnson 4 85 4.7 +£5.50 +6.5
Maurice Barnes 3 66 4.6 +£16.00 +24.2
Robin Dickin 3 68 4.4 -£52.25 -76.8
John Mackie 2 50 4.0 -£39.75 -79.5
Peter Niven 2 50 4.0 -£21.38 -42.8
John Spearing 2 51 3.9 -£43.75 -85.8
Simon Lewis 2 51 3.9 +£51.00 +100.0
Ron Hodges 3 79 3.8 -£47.50 -60.1
Nigel Hawke 3 80 3.8 -£30.00 -37.5
Ferdy Murphy 8 219 3.7 -£184.75 -84.4
John Cornwall 2 62 3.2 -£53.50 -86.3
Bill Turner 1 51 2.0 -£47.00 -92.2
M J Gingell 1 55 1.8 -£38.00 -69.1
Barry Murtagh 0 56 0.0 -£56.00 -100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. The highest profile trainer in this list is Ferdy Murphy – he is traditional a ‘slower-starter’ to the season. His October strike rate of 3.7% compares very poorly with his overall one of 11.6%.

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in October since 2005:

All chases (October 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Paul Nicholls 39 122 32.0 -£12.36 -10.1
Charlie Longsdon 10 32 31.3 +£45.25 +141.4
Andy Turnell 10 33 30.3 +£30.83 +93.4
Howard Johnson 23 78 29.5 +£13.21 +16.9
Nicky Henderson 7 30 23.3 -£8.17 -27.2
Emma Lavelle 10 43 23.3 +£22.42 +52.1
Ian Williams 10 43 23.3 +£18.40 +42.8
Nigel Twiston-Davies 49 213 23.0 +£4.30 +2.0
Michael Scudamore 14 62 22.6 +£39.75 +64.1
Gary Moore 9 46 19.6 +£40.56 +88.2
Nicky Richards 7 37 18.9 -£2.32 -6.3
Chris Bealby 6 32 18.8 +£14.00 +43.8
David Pipe 14 77 18.2 -£9.75 -12.7
Colin Tizzard 10 57 17.5 +£29.50 +51.8
Alan King 7 41 17.1 +£3.81 +9.3
Bob Buckler 7 42 16.7 +£39.50 +94.1
Oliver Sherwood 5 30 16.7 -£10.54 -35.1
Jonjo O'Neill 33 201 16.4 -£21.77 -10.8

 

Paul Nicholls tops the list again and with his chasers but he still makes an overall loss, despite the positive figures for his novice chasers (see above). Ian Williams has done well with his chasers and it should be noted that if you focused on non handicap chases only his record becomes 5 wins from just 12 runners. Nigel Twiston-Davies does well with runners coming off a break of 150 days or more scoring with 32% of his chasers for a profit of £36.45 (ROI +32.6%). Indeed he does extremely well at the other end of the spectrum with chasers returning within 14 days – 9 wins from 20 (SR 45%) for a profit of £14.40 (ROI +72%).

All hurdle races (October 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson 16 61 26.2 +£1.93 +3.2
Paul Nicholls 43 171 25.2 -£16.53 -9.7
Charles Egerton 7 28 25.0 +£7.39 +26.4
Richard Fahey 8 33 24.2 +£3.63 +11.0
John Quinn 13 54 24.1 +£33.63 +62.3
Philip Hobbs 51 216 23.6 +£31.50 +14.6
Emma Lavelle 17 74 23.0 +£35.85 +48.5
Nigel Twiston-Davies 38 186 20.4 +£115.78 +62.3
Alan King 31 157 19.8 -£41.87 -26.7
Keith Goldsworthy 7 37 18.9 +£34.48 +93.2
Jonjo O'Neill 46 266 17.3 -£29.55 -11.1
Alison Thorpe 11 65 16.9 -£4.33 -6.7
Dai Burchell 5 30 16.7 -£6.50 -21.7
P C Haslam 5 31 16.1 +£14.50 +46.8
Evan Williams 26 162 16.1 -£4.14 -2.6
J T Stimpson 4 25 16.0 +£17.00 +68.0

 

Nicky Henderson tops the list this time – interestingly his handicap hurdle record shines through with 11 wins from 34 (SR 32.4%) for a profit of £17.40 (ROI +51.2%). Indeed, his highest priced winner has been 6/1 so no big winners skewing the figures. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a good record with horses making their career debut in a hurdle race at this time of year – of the 15 debutants, 6 have won.

All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.








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