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November Trainers 2012
Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of November with data taken from 2007 to 2011. November sees the National Hunt season move up a gear.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Nov 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Nicky Henderson who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his November performances – only once has he slipped under the 20% mark and 3 of the 5 seasons his SR% has been over 30. Having said that, despite an excellent strike rate, backing all his runners would have yielded a loss. As a well known trainer, many of his runners start at tight prices, which is the main reason for a lack of overall profitability. The market has been an excellent guide to the chances of his runners in this month – all bar 3 of his winners have been 7/1 or shorter (for the record 11/1 has been his biggest winning price). He has had a 51% strike rate with favourites and a decent 28% striker ate with second favourites. You would have made a small profit backing any horse from the top four of the betting over the past 5 Novembers. He also has a good record with horses making their seasonal debuts – a 38% strike rate coupled with a 16% return on investment.
It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Nov 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5% or lower)
Despite the very rare big priced winner from these trainers, I would be keen to avoid these stables for the month of November. All bar two of the trainers in this list have incurred losses of at least 60p in the £.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in November since 2007:
All chases (Nov 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 17%+)
Both Emma Lavelle and Nicky Henderson have excellent strike rates, but amazingly neither have made an overall profit. Henderson has had a 52% strike rate when booking Tony Mc Coy to ride (10 wins from 19) – backing this combination would have yielded a return of 71p in the £. Emma Lavelle has made a profit when focusing on her shorter priced runners – horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided 13 winners from 31 (SR 61.9%) for a profit of £13.45 (ROI +64.0%).
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Nov 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Nicky Henderson takes the top slot in terms of strike rate for third table running. Jim Best though is a trainer to note – similar strike rate but better returns than Henderson. Best has success in all hurdle races at this time of year making a profit in novice events, selling hurdles and handicaps. Best has done very well with quick returners too – horses off the track for 8 days or less have produced 9 winners from 14!
Emma Lavelle has done consistently well making a profit of 4 of the 5 Novembers in hurdle races. Her 4 and 5 year olds have secured ALL the winners and combining all other age groups she is 0 from 21.
It is interesting to see runners from the Paul Nicholls stable lose 22p in the £ despite a near 1 in 4 strike rate.
All in all there seems to be some useful data in this article and good luck punting this month!
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