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November Trainers 2012


 

November Trainers

 

Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of November with data taken from 2007 to 2011. November sees the National Hunt season move up a gear.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

All races (Nov 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

107

342

31.3

-£22.84

-6.7

Jim Best

25

83

30.1

+£39.17

+47.2

Emma Lavelle

38

155

24.5

+£67.86

+43.8

Paul Nicholls

115

477

24.1

-£75.70

-15.9

Rebecca Curtis

13

67

19.4

-£2.50

-3.7

Warren Greatrex

13

68

19.1

-£14.95

-22.0

Steve Gollings

11

58

19.0

+£3.77

+6.5

Donald McCain

68

360

18.9

-£16.79

-4.7

Dr Richard Newland

10

55

18.2

+£5.79

+10.5

Evan Williams

51

281

18.2

-£18.45

-6.6

Victor Dartnall

23

127

18.1

+£39.25

+30.9

Alan Swinbank

10

58

17.2

-£5.77

-10.0

Pam Sly

11

65

16.9

£6.00

9.2

Charlie Mann

30

178

16.9

-£14.20

-8.0

Alan King

85

512

16.6

-£45.70

-8.9

Nick Williams

15

94

16.0

-£22.25

-23.7

Brian Ellison

10

63

15.9

-£1.15

-1.8

Malcolm Jefferson

21

137

15.3

-£19.41

-14.2

James Ewart

13

85

15.3

+£3.23

+3.8

David Pipe

52

342

15.2

-£51.01

-14.9

Colin Tizzard

30

199

15.1

-£16.82

-8.5

 

Nicky Henderson who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his November performances – only once has he slipped under the 20% mark and 3 of the 5 seasons his SR% has been over 30. Having said that, despite an excellent strike rate, backing all his runners would have yielded a loss. As a well known trainer, many of his runners start at tight prices, which is the main reason for a lack of overall profitability. The market has been an excellent guide to the chances of his runners in this month – all bar 3 of his winners have been 7/1 or shorter (for the record 11/1 has been his biggest winning price). He has had a 51% strike rate with favourites and a decent 28% striker ate with second favourites. You would have made a small profit backing any horse from the top four of the betting over the past 5 Novembers. He also has a good record with horses making their seasonal debuts – a 38% strike rate coupled with a 16% return on investment.

 

It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Nov 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

George Moore

4

82

4.9

-£52.50

-64.0

Suzy Smith

3

62

4.8

-£44.50

-71.8

Nigel Hawke

3

65

4.6

-£15.00

-23.1

John Cornwall

2

50

4.0

-£35.50

-71.0

Zoe Davison

2

53

3.8

-£28.00

-52.8

Matt Sheppard

2

68

2.9

-£54.00

-79.4

Maurice Barnes

2

71

2.8

+£51.00

+71.8

James Frost

2

72

2.8

-£53.50

-74.3

Chris Gordon

2

79

2.5

-£59.00

-74.7

Alison Thorpe

2

86

2.3

-£71.00

-82.6

Chris Down

2

90

2.2

-£54.00

-60.0

Lucy Normile

1

51

2.0

-£48.25

-94.6

Richard Phillips

2

111

1.8

-£85.00

-76.6

Dianne Sayer

1

63

1.6

-£55.50

-88.1

Robert Johnson

1

69

1.5

-£60.00

-87.0

Bob Buckler

1

102

1.0

-£92.00

-90.2

Michael Chapman

0

94

0.0

-£94.00

-100.0

 

Despite the very rare big priced winner from these trainers, I would be keen to avoid these stables for the month of November. All bar two of the trainers in this list have incurred losses of at least 60p in the £.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in November since 2007:

 

All chases (Nov 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

39

118

33.1

-£16.70

-14.2

Emma Lavelle

15

49

30.6

-£0.05

-0.1

Paul Nicholls

53

211

25.1

-£20.84

-9.9

Charlie Mann

21

87

24.1

+£28.30

+32.5

Victor Dartnall

12

50

24.0

+£33.13

+66.3

Donald McCain

24

116

20.7

-£7.01

-6.0

James Ewart

8

40

20.0

+£16.83

+42.1

David Pipe

25

129

19.4

+£44.78

+34.7

Malcolm Jefferson

10

52

19.2

+£1.23

+2.4

Evan Williams

21

113

18.6

-£18.31

-16.2

Neil Mulholland

7

38

18.4

-£4.88

-12.8

Brendan Powell

13

71

18.3

+£21.85

+30.8

Nick Gifford

8

45

17.8

-£3.92

-8.7

Alan King

27

152

17.8

-£17.77

-11.7

Kim Bailey

9

51

17.7

+£7.75

+15.2

Richard Lee

11

64

17.2

+£26.00

+40.6

 

Both Emma Lavelle and Nicky Henderson have excellent strike rates, but amazingly neither have made an overall profit. Henderson has had a 52% strike rate when booking Tony Mc Coy to ride (10 wins from 19) – backing this combination would have yielded a return of 71p in the £. Emma Lavelle has made a profit when focusing on her shorter priced runners – horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided 13 winners from 31 (SR 61.9%) for a profit of £13.45 (ROI +64.0%).

 

Moving onto hurdle races now:

 

 

 

All hurdle races (Nov 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

57

182

31.3

+£4.01

+2.2

Jim Best

22

73

30.1

+£26.07

+35.7

Paul Nicholls

53

229

23.1

-£50.97

-22.3

Steve Gollings

7

33

21.2

+£8.77

+26.6

Rebecca Curtis

7

34

20.6

-£8.38

-24.6

Emma Lavelle

18

91

19.8

+£51.66

+56.8

Dr Richard Newland

6

32

18.8

+£2.67

+8.3

Donald McCain

37

204

18.1

+£5.48

+2.7

Brian Ellison

9

50

18.0

+£6.35

+12.7

Peter Bowen

16

92

17.4

+£81.38

+88.5

Nick Williams

7

41

17.1

-£14.63

-35.7

Evan Williams

26

153

17.0

+£2.36

+1.6

Philip Hobbs

39

230

17.0

-£28.70

-12.5

Alan King

49

296

16.6

-£13.81

-4.7

 

Nicky Henderson takes the top slot in terms of strike rate for third table running. Jim Best though is a trainer to note – similar strike rate but better returns than Henderson. Best has success in all hurdle races at this time of year making a profit in novice events, selling hurdles and handicaps. Best has done very well with quick returners too – horses off the track for 8 days or less have produced 9 winners from 14!

 

Emma Lavelle has done consistently well making a profit of 4 of the 5 Novembers in hurdle races. Her 4 and 5 year olds have secured ALL the winners and combining all other age groups she is 0 from 21.

 

It is interesting to see runners from the Paul Nicholls stable lose 22p in the £ despite a near 1 in 4 strike rate.

 

All in all there seems to be some useful data in this article and good luck punting this month!

 

 








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