November Trainers

 

Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of November with data taken from 2007 to 2011. November sees the National Hunt season move up a gear.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

All races (Nov 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	107	342	31.3	-£22.84	-6.7
Jim Best	25	83	30.1	+£39.17	+47.2
Emma Lavelle	38	155	24.5	+£67.86	+43.8
Paul Nicholls	115	477	24.1	-£75.70	-15.9
Rebecca Curtis	13	67	19.4	-£2.50	-3.7
Warren Greatrex	13	68	19.1	-£14.95	-22.0
Steve Gollings	11	58	19.0	+£3.77	+6.5
Donald McCain	68	360	18.9	-£16.79	-4.7
Dr Richard Newland	10	55	18.2	+£5.79	+10.5
Evan Williams	51	281	18.2	-£18.45	-6.6
Victor Dartnall	23	127	18.1	+£39.25	+30.9
Alan Swinbank	10	58	17.2	-£5.77	-10.0
Pam Sly	11	65	16.9	£6.00	9.2
Charlie Mann	30	178	16.9	-£14.20	-8.0
Alan King	85	512	16.6	-£45.70	-8.9
Nick Williams	15	94	16.0	-£22.25	-23.7
Brian Ellison	10	63	15.9	-£1.15	-1.8
Malcolm Jefferson	21	137	15.3	-£19.41	-14.2
James Ewart	13	85	15.3	+£3.23	+3.8
David Pipe	52	342	15.2	-£51.01	-14.9
Colin Tizzard	30	199	15.1	-£16.82	-8.5

 

Nicky Henderson who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his November performances – only once has he slipped under the 20% mark and 3 of the 5 seasons his SR% has been over 30. Having said that, despite an excellent strike rate, backing all his runners would have yielded a loss. As a well known trainer, many of his runners start at tight prices, which is the main reason for a lack of overall profitability. The market has been an excellent guide to the chances of his runners in this month – all bar 3 of his winners have been 7/1 or shorter (for the record 11/1 has been his biggest winning price). He has had a 51% strike rate with favourites and a decent 28% striker ate with second favourites. You would have made a small profit backing any horse from the top four of the betting over the past 5 Novembers. He also has a good record with horses making their seasonal debuts – a 38% strike rate coupled with a 16% return on investment.

 

It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Nov 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5% or lower)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI (%)
George Moore	4	82	4.9	-£52.50	-64.0
Suzy Smith	3	62	4.8	-£44.50	-71.8
Nigel Hawke	3	65	4.6	-£15.00	-23.1
John Cornwall	2	50	4.0	-£35.50	-71.0
Zoe Davison	2	53	3.8	-£28.00	-52.8
Matt Sheppard	2	68	2.9	-£54.00	-79.4
Maurice Barnes	2	71	2.8	+£51.00	+71.8
James Frost	2	72	2.8	-£53.50	-74.3
Chris Gordon	2	79	2.5	-£59.00	-74.7
Alison Thorpe	2	86	2.3	-£71.00	-82.6
Chris Down	2	90	2.2	-£54.00	-60.0
Lucy Normile	1	51	2.0	-£48.25	-94.6
Richard Phillips	2	111	1.8	-£85.00	-76.6
Dianne Sayer	1	63	1.6	-£55.50	-88.1
Robert Johnson	1	69	1.5	-£60.00	-87.0
Bob Buckler	1	102	1.0	-£92.00	-90.2
Michael Chapman	0	94	0.0	-£94.00	-100.0

 

Despite the very rare big priced winner from these trainers, I would be keen to avoid these stables for the month of November. All bar two of the trainers in this list have incurred losses of at least 60p in the £.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in November since 2007:

 

All chases (Nov 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	39	118	33.1	-£16.70	-14.2
Emma Lavelle	15	49	30.6	-£0.05	-0.1
Paul Nicholls	53	211	25.1	-£20.84	-9.9
Charlie Mann	21	87	24.1	+£28.30	+32.5
Victor Dartnall	12	50	24.0	+£33.13	+66.3
Donald McCain	24	116	20.7	-£7.01	-6.0
James Ewart	8	40	20.0	+£16.83	+42.1
David Pipe	25	129	19.4	+£44.78	+34.7
Malcolm Jefferson	10	52	19.2	+£1.23	+2.4
Evan Williams	21	113	18.6	-£18.31	-16.2
Neil Mulholland	7	38	18.4	-£4.88	-12.8
Brendan Powell	13	71	18.3	+£21.85	+30.8
Nick Gifford	8	45	17.8	-£3.92	-8.7
Alan King	27	152	17.8	-£17.77	-11.7
Kim Bailey	9	51	17.7	+£7.75	+15.2
Richard Lee	11	64	17.2	+£26.00	+40.6

 

Both Emma Lavelle and Nicky Henderson have excellent strike rates, but amazingly neither have made an overall profit. Henderson has had a 52% strike rate when booking Tony Mc Coy to ride (10 wins from 19) – backing this combination would have yielded a return of 71p in the £. Emma Lavelle has made a profit when focusing on her shorter priced runners – horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided 13 winners from 31 (SR 61.9%) for a profit of £13.45 (ROI +64.0%).

 

Moving onto hurdle races now:

 

 

 

All hurdle races (Nov 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	57	182	31.3	+£4.01	+2.2
Jim Best	22	73	30.1	+£26.07	+35.7
Paul Nicholls	53	229	23.1	-£50.97	-22.3
Steve Gollings	7	33	21.2	+£8.77	+26.6
Rebecca Curtis	7	34	20.6	-£8.38	-24.6
Emma Lavelle	18	91	19.8	+£51.66	+56.8
Dr Richard Newland	6	32	18.8	+£2.67	+8.3
Donald McCain	37	204	18.1	+£5.48	+2.7
Brian Ellison	9	50	18.0	+£6.35	+12.7
Peter Bowen	16	92	17.4	+£81.38	+88.5
Nick Williams	7	41	17.1	-£14.63	-35.7
Evan Williams	26	153	17.0	+£2.36	+1.6
Philip Hobbs	39	230	17.0	-£28.70	-12.5
Alan King	49	296	16.6	-£13.81	-4.7

 

Nicky Henderson takes the top slot in terms of strike rate for third table running. Jim Best though is a trainer to note – similar strike rate but better returns than Henderson. Best has success in all hurdle races at this time of year making a profit in novice events, selling hurdles and handicaps. Best has done very well with quick returners too – horses off the track for 8 days or less have produced 9 winners from 14!

 

Emma Lavelle has done consistently well making a profit of 4 of the 5 Novembers in hurdle races. Her 4 and 5 year olds have secured ALL the winners and combining all other age groups she is 0 from 21.

 

It is interesting to see runners from the Paul Nicholls stable lose 22p in the £ despite a near 1 in 4 strike rate.

 

All in all there seems to be some useful data in this article and good luck punting this month!