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November Trainers by David Renham
Each month I have been writing an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of November with data taken from 2003 to 2009. November sees the National Hunt season move up a gear.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Nov 03-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Nicky Henderson who tops the list in terms of strike rate has been very consistent with his October performances – he has produced strike rates in excess of 28% in 5 of the 7 years. The market is an excellent guide to the chances of his runners in this month – focusing on his runners priced 11/1 or shorter his record improves to 108 wins from 310 runners (SR 34.8%) for a profit of £88.47 (ROI +28.5%). It should also be noted that in this month he is 6 wins from 10 at Ludlow and 12 wins from 24 at Ascot.
It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Nov 03-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 4.5% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses – 18 of the 22 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in November since 2003:
All chases (Nov 03-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 18%+)
Henderson tops the list again for an approximate break-even scenario. His chasers do tend to start at shortish prices – indeed the average price of all his chasers in this month has just been over 6/1. His average winning odds have been around 2/1. His chasers that start favourite have scored 60% of the time and a profit of 15 pence in the £ would have been achieved over the period of study. Otherwise finding profitable angles are difficult despite his excellent record.
Ferdy Murphy’s stable perform far better in November than October and his chasers have returned a profit. His figures are particularly interesting when focusing solely on conditional jockeys (jockey that claim 3lb or more). With these jockeys on board his November chase record reads 16 wins from 69 (SR 23.2%) for a profit of £52.50 (ROI +76.1%).
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Nov 03-09) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Nicky Henderson takes the top slot once again in terms of strike rate. Jim Best though is a trainer to note – similar strike rate but roughly double the returns of Henderson. It is interesting to see runners from the Paul Nicholls stable lose over 20p in the £ despite a 1 in 5 strike rate. Indeed, this includes a 33/1 winner so clearly most of his winners have been short prices.
I don’t normally look at bumper stats as data is always limited during a monthly period. However, I thought it would be worth haring with the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 7-year period:
All bumper races (Nov 03-09) – 20 runs minimum
For those of you who bet in bumpers, hopefully that table will help you.
All in all there seems to be some useful data in this article and good luck punting this month!
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