National Hunt Sires

The use of breeding as a winner finding / betting tool has become more popular in recent years, but more especially on the flat. This article offers a plethora of sire stats but for National Hunt racing. The data for this article is taken from 1st January 2005 to 16th October 2010.

Let us look at all races over this period, focusing on sires that have had at least 250 races. The initial focus is on those with the highest strike rates:

All Races (min. 250 runs; SR 13%+)

Sire	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Kalanisi	49	260	18.8	-£18.93	-7.3
Galileo	53	285	18.6	-£42.19	-14.8
King's Theatre	187	1118	16.7	+£32.75	+2.9
Hernando	119	764	15.6	-£37.19	-4.9
Danehill Dancer	61	396	15.4	-£103.60	-26.2
Accordion	233	1547	15.1	-£210.08	-13.6
Sleeping Car	44	294	15.0	-£56.98	-19.4
Kahyasi	98	663	14.8	-£19.55	-2.9
Sir Harry Lewis	157	1073	14.6	+£66.54	+6.2
Diesis	41	283	14.5	-£72.57	-25.6
Midnight Legend	139	971	14.3	£191.00	19.7
Cadoudal	85	597	14.2	-£156.06	-26.1
Zilzal	55	390	14.1	-£6.18	-1.6
Sinndar	44	314	14.0	-£34.16	-10.9
Halling	71	511	13.9	-£94.85	-18.6
Second Empire	36	260	13.8	+£94.42	+36.3
Nikos	66	479	13.8	-£35.88	-7.5
Flemensfirth	182	1322	13.8	-£36.60	-2.8
Orpen	52	382	13.6	+£69.84	+18.3
Passing Sale	40	299	13.4	+£94.45	+31.6
Acatenango	53	397	13.4	-£126.72	-31.9
Daylami	93	702	13.2	+£22.30	+3.2
Bob Back	186	1412	13.2	-£404.57	-28.7
Epervier Bleu	39	298	13.1	+£10.27	+3.4
Presenting	404	3110	13.0	-£622.46	-20.0
Pistolet Bleu	106	817	13.0	-£92.18	-11.3

 

Kalanisi tops the list in terms of strike rate; more of that sire a little later. King’s Theatre record requires close scrutiny considering the sire has made a blind profit at SP from over 1100 runs. Normally for such a profit to be made there are usually a few huge priced winners that can skew the figures somewhat. King’s Theatre has only had 3 winners at 33/1 or bigger (biggest being 50/1) and overall runners priced 33/1 or bigger have produced a loss. Indeed both favourites and second favourites have made a profit – 11.5% and 14% respectively. In addition 3rd favourites have broken even, so all in all King’s Theatre is a sire worth noting in National Hunt races. One other point worth noting is that King’s Theatre has sired 143 runners to date; 72 of which have won at least 1 race. This equates to just over 50% which is well above the norm of around 32%.

Let us look at the sires with the poorest strike rates now:

All Races (min. 250 runs; SR 6.5% or less)

Sire	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Rakaposhi King	52	797	6.5	-£426.58	-53.5
Danehill	22	338	6.5	-£179.21	-53.0
Charnwood Forest	21	324	6.5	-£155.11	-47.9
Mister Baileys	17	266	6.4	-£161.17	-60.6
Morpeth	17	267	6.4	-£131.33	-49.2
Cadeaux Genereux	28	445	6.3	-£222.44	-50.0
Mtoto	40	645	6.2	-£399.81	-62.0
Thowra	25	404	6.2	-£96.67	-23.9
Foxhound	25	415	6.0	-£137.30	-33.1
Royal Applause	24	399	6.0	-£190.88	-47.8
El Conquistador	16	266	6.0	-£37.10	-13.9
Rock Hopper	15	259	5.8	-£150.46	-58.1
Zafonic	16	277	5.8	-£181.92	-65.7
Vettori	48	853	5.6	-£342.65	-40.2
Diktat	26	472	5.5	-£302.97	-64.2
Makbul	17	318	5.3	-£122.20	-38.4
Beat All	20	375	5.3	-£248.55	-66.3
Emperor Fountain	16	338	4.7	-£217.88	-64.5
Presidium	12	256	4.7	-£159.92	-62.5
Emperor Jones	12	262	4.6	-£154.25	-58.9
Pursuit of Love	11	402	2.7	-£282.25	-70.2

 

Some familiar flat sires in there. Zafonic for example has a strike rate on the flat during same period of 11.2%; Cadeaux Genereux has a 11.6% strike rate on the flat, while Danehill’s flat strike rate stands at 12.2%. Hence all 3 sires score around half as often over the sticks as compared to the level. Indeed of Danehill’s 47 progeny just 12 have won an NH race (25.5%) – I quite like using this idea another benchmark of a sire’s success rather than just focusing on strike rates and ROIs.

As with any large block of data, it is useful to split it up further and hence let me look at the performance of sires when faced with the larger obstacles. I have used 100 runs or more in terms of qualification:

All Chases (min. 100 runs; SR 15%+)

Sire	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI%
Midnight Legend	54	282	19.1	+£128.86	+45.7
Robin Des Pres	21	113	18.6	-£30.72	-27.2
Sleeping Car	22	126	17.5	-£14.04	-11.1
King’s Theatre	42	241	17.4	-£64.11	-26.6
Robin Des Champs	18	105	17.1	+£111.10	+105.8
Nikos	46	269	17.1	+£7.37	+2.7
Passing Sale	29	170	17.1	+£120.45	+70.9
Darshaan	18	106	17.0	-£17.38	-16.4
Needle Gun	30	187	16.0	-£16.30	-8.7
Pistolet Bleu	51	318	16.0	+£5.52	+1.7
Villez	36	225	16.0	-£32.48	-14.4
Sir Harry Lewis	58	365	15.9	+£0.77	+0.2
Flemensfirth	75	476	15.8	-£48.85	-10.3
Witness Box	25	161	15.5	+£134.12	+83.3
Jurado	55	355	15.5	+£66.07	+18.6
Lute Antique	28	181	15.5	+£3.30	+1.8
Bulington	17	110	15.5	+£3.03	+2.8
Accordion	93	606	15.3	-£66.91	-11.0
Beyssac	22	144	15.3	+£14.33	+10.0
Mark of Esteem	17	112	15.2	-£8.54	-7.6
Bob Back	84	560	15.0	-£110.47	-19.7

 

Midnight Legend tops the list and the first point to note is how many of his progeny have won at least once over fences – 25 of the 35 have won equating to 71.4%. This makes me feel that any horse sired by Midnight Legend requires very close scrutiny over fences. The biggest priced winner he has had over fences is just 33/1 and hence the profits of £128.86 are not skewed by big priced winners. In 5 of the 6 seasons of study, Midnight Legend’s chasers have made a blind profit to SP.

A look at the sires who have struggled over fences:

All Chases (min. 100 runs; SR 7% or less)

Sire	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI%
Homo Sapien	9	134	6.7	-£60.67	-45.3
Thowra	8	122	6.6	-£33.50	-27.5
Insan	14	218	6.4	-£132.83	-60.9
Mandalus	12	188	6.4	-£110.17	-58.6
Useful	18	286	6.3	-£141.89	-49.6
Warcraft	7	112	6.3	-£75.38	-67.3
Rock Hopper	6	103	5.8	-£48.25	-46.8
Royal Charter	7	126	5.6	-£50.25	-39.9
Jupiter Island	6	118	5.1	-£65.50	-55.5

 

With smallish fields for chases, there is always going to be a smaller number of sires with low strike rates.

Let me move onto hurdle races now. As before I shall look at those sires with the best strike rates first:

All Hurdle races (min. 100 runs; SR 15%+)

Sire	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI%
Dubai Destination	20	100	20.0	-£17.59	-17.6
Kalanisi	44	238	18.5	-£14.43	-6.1
Galileo	47	264	17.8	-£50.24	-19.0
Lando	19	111	17.1	+£7.49	+6.7
Sakhee	18	113	15.9	-£38.58	-34.1
Lavirco	17	107	15.9	+£65.35	+61.1
Diesis	30	189	15.9	-£55.50	-29.4
King's Theatre	113	716	15.8	+£58.42	+8.2
Acatenango	40	254	15.7	-£24.93	-9.8
Video Rock	41	266	15.4	-£34.59	-13.0
Sir Harry Lewis	86	558	15.4	+£54.37	+9.7
Insan	17	111	15.3	+£0.06	+0.1
Kahyasi	67	440	15.2	+£50.00	+11.4
Aljabr	17	112	15.2	+£64.88	+57.9

 

Dubai Destination tops the list but the prices of his winners have been fairly short (all bar two have been 11/2 or shorter). Hence, he has made a loss of nearly 18 pence in the £. Kalanisi, who topped the overall standings (all races), has sent mainly hurdlers out to date (92% of his runners have run in hurdle races). One stat worth noting is that Kalanisi male progeny have comfortably outperformed their female counterparts. His male hurdlers have won 35 races from 164 runners (SR 21.3%); female hurdlers have won 9 races from 74 (SR 12.2%). In addition it should be noted that his progeny have not had any big priced winners – indeed those priced 18/1 or bigger have produced 72 consecutive losers. Hence backing his runners priced 16/1 or shorter would have returned you about 35 pence in every £ wagered.

All Hurdle races (min. 100 runs; SR 5% or less)

Sire	Wins	Runs	SR%	Profit	ROI%
Bertolini	7	141	5.0	-£97.05	-68.8
Averti	6	121	5.0	-£64.50	-53.3
Titus Livius	10	204	4.9	-£17.67	-8.7
Jurado	5	102	4.9	-£21.67	-21.2
Vettori	31	633	4.9	-£242.73	-38.3
Pharly	5	103	4.9	-£51.50	-50.0
Paris House	5	105	4.8	-£50.00	-47.6
Imperial Ballet	6	132	4.5	-£94.88	-71.9
Lujain	5	110	4.5	-£67.88	-61.7
Zafonic	8	187	4.3	-£130.77	-69.9
Rakaposhi King	17	406	4.2	-£293.06	-72.2
Darnay	5	122	4.1	-£97.02	-79.5
Ali-Royal	7	174	4.0	-£107.75	-61.9
Presidium	6	153	3.9	-£106.67	-69.7
Gildoran	4	102	3.9	-£63.00	-61.8
Terimon	14	358	3.9	-£213.17	-59.5
Great Palm	7	180	3.9	-£116.50	-64.7
Sea Raven	5	132	3.8	-£96.67	-73.2
Emperor Fountain	8	213	3.8	-£154.00	-72.3
Compton Place	6	162	3.7	-£117.97	-72.8
Entrepreneur	6	165	3.6	-£124.42	-75.4
Raise A Grand	6	165	3.6	-£101.50	-61.5
Makbul	7	196	3.6	-£47.20	-24.1
Pursuit of Love	10	317	3.2	-£201.00	-63.4
Warcraft	3	102	2.9	-£19.50	-19.1
El Conquistador	4	140	2.9	-£106.00	-75.7
Dancing Spree	3	108	2.8	-£57.50	-53.2
Xaar	5	189	2.6	-£163.85	-86.7
Emperor Jones	4	162	2.5	-£136.50	-84.3
Desert Sun	3	123	2.4	-£105.90	-86.1
Shahrastani	2	107	1.9	-£74.50	-69.6
Royal Academy	2	128	1.6	-£114.50	-89.5
Bahamian Bounty	0	111	0.0	-£111.00	-100.0

 

Plenty of low strike rates over hurdles. Once again, there are several more well known flat sires in the table. Bahamian Bounty has a decent flat record, but more especially over 5 to 7f, so it should really be no surprise that his progeny have struggled over hurdlers. Indeed of the 111 losers, only 5 have managed to place.

One useful use of stats is as a comparison tool so I have compiled of list of sires with their respective strike rates in hurdle races and chases (all sires in the table have had at least 100 runs in chases and 100 runs in hurdles). This information should give us, as punters, an extra insight which should help our selection process. Using sire stats in National Hunt racing can give us that little edge we need:

Sire	Hurdle SR	Chase SR
Acatenango	15.7	9.0
Accordion	14.1	15.3
Afzal	8.8	10.7
Alderbrook	10.0	14.4
Alflora	8.7	11.0
Anshan	10.9	11.6
Arctic Lord	5.9	9.5
Barathea	7.1	7.8
Be My Native	11.8	11.1
Beneficial	12.6	12.2
Bering	11.0	13.5
Bigstone	7.6	9.8
Bob Back	10.9	15.0
Bob's Return	7.9	11.7
Broken Hearted	9.8	9.9
Cadeaux Genereux	5.1	10.1
Cadoudal	14.5	13.6
Carroll House	8.1	12.2
Charmer	8.8	10.6
Classic Cliche	6.5	9.9
Cloudings	9.4	14.5
Commanche Run	5.4	12.5
Cyborg	10.0	9.8
Darshaan	5.4	17.0
Definite Article	10.0	12.9
Double Trigger	10.1	13.7
Dr Massini	11.6	14.5
Environment Friend	5.8	12.6
Epervier Bleu	14.0	13.6
Executive Perk	11.4	11.7
Exit To Nowhere	6.7	10.6
Fleetwood	10.3	14.4
Flemensfirth	13.1	15.8
Fourstars Allstar	7.5	13.2
Garde Royale	5.2	13.2
Germany	7.8	13.3
Gildoran	3.9	7.5
Glacial Storm	8.2	11.0
Good Thyne	6.9	8.2
Grand Lodge	7.1	8.4
Grand Plaisir	12.3	11.6
Groom Dancer	8.0	7.3
Gunner B	8.7	10.7
Halling	13.0	14.5
In The Wings	13.1	11.3
Insan	15.3	6.4
Jurado	4.9	15.5
Kadalko	8.8	8.3
Kahyasi	15.2	13.9
Karinga Bay	10.2	11.7
Kayf Tara	11.5	13.4
Key Of Luck	12.0	8.3
King's Theatre	15.8	17.4
Linamix	9.3	10.8
Lord Americo	8.8	10.3
Luso	5.6	9.7
Lute Antique	8.6	15.5
Mansonnien	8.8	12.9
Marju	7.3	9.7
Mark of Esteem	9.2	15.2
Midnight Legend	12.0	19.1
Minster Son	5.3	13.3
Mister Lord	7.7	12.0
Moonax	7.3	10.8
Moscow Society	7.0	9.0
Mtoto	5.8	8.1
Naheez	7.0	11.8
Needle Gun	5.1	16.0
Nikos	9.9	17.1
Nomadic Way	6.6	12.8
Norwich	7.0	12.9
Old Vic	10.0	14.7
Oscar	12.2	11.9
Overbury	10.5	13.7
Passing Sale	8.7	17.1
Perugino	8.5	10.9
Petoski	6.3	13.4
Phardante	5.8	8.7
Pistolet Bleu	10.2	16.0
Presenting	12.1	14.2
Primitive Rising	9.4	10.7
Ragmar	7.9	7.3
Rakaposhi King	4.2	10.4
Rashar	10.2	13.0
Robin Des Champs	13.6	17.1
Rock Hopper	6.3	5.8
Roselier	10.6	12.1
Rudimentary	9.9	12.7
Sabrehill	14.6	10.7
Saddlers' Hall	8.2	11.4
Sadler's Wells	10.8	12.0
Selkirk	9.1	9.4
Shernazar	8.7	11.6
Silver Patriarch	7.2	8.8
Simply Great	7.1	9.4
Sir Harry Lewis	15.4	15.9
Sleeping Car	12.5	17.5
Slip Anchor	9.1	8.3
Sovereign Water	7.5	12.9
Spectrum	7.5	9.4
Supreme Leader	12.4	11.9
Taipan	7.1	11.9
Teenoso	8.2	8.9
Terimon	3.9	9.6
Thowra	6.0	6.6
Topanoora	11.0	11.4
Toulon	10.0	13.9
Trempolino	13.0	11.6
Turgeon	7.8	12.1
Turtle Island	6.7	10.8
Un Desperado	5.8	11.6
Unfuwain	11.3	14.9
Useful	10.0	6.3
Vettori	4.9	9.7
Video Rock	15.4	9.7
Villez	8.6	16.0
Warcraft	2.9	6.3
Weld	5.1	12.5
Witness Box	10.0	15.5
Zaffaran	9.8	10.3
Zilzal	13.8	13.2

 

As with all racing stats, it is not simply enough to look at the stats and make a final judgement – they should be used as a starting point from which further investigation will hopefully prove fruitful and ultimately profitable.