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National Hunt Sires


National Hunt Sires

The use of breeding as a winner finding / betting tool has become more popular in recent years, but more especially on the flat. This article offers a plethora of sire stats but for National Hunt racing. The data for this article is taken from 1st January 2005 to 16th October 2010.

Let us look at all races over this period, focusing on sires that have had at least 250 races. The initial focus is on those with the highest strike rates:

All Races (min. 250 runs; SR 13%+)

Sire Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Kalanisi 49 260 18.8 -£18.93 -7.3
Galileo 53 285 18.6 -£42.19 -14.8
King's Theatre 187 1118 16.7 +£32.75 +2.9
Hernando 119 764 15.6 -£37.19 -4.9
Danehill Dancer 61 396 15.4 -£103.60 -26.2
Accordion 233 1547 15.1 -£210.08 -13.6
Sleeping Car 44 294 15.0 -£56.98 -19.4
Kahyasi 98 663 14.8 -£19.55 -2.9
Sir Harry Lewis 157 1073 14.6 +£66.54 +6.2
Diesis 41 283 14.5 -£72.57 -25.6
Midnight Legend 139 971 14.3 £191.00 19.7
Cadoudal 85 597 14.2 -£156.06 -26.1
Zilzal 55 390 14.1 -£6.18 -1.6
Sinndar 44 314 14.0 -£34.16 -10.9
Halling 71 511 13.9 -£94.85 -18.6
Second Empire 36 260 13.8 +£94.42 +36.3
Nikos 66 479 13.8 -£35.88 -7.5
Flemensfirth 182 1322 13.8 -£36.60 -2.8
Orpen 52 382 13.6 +£69.84 +18.3
Passing Sale 40 299 13.4 +£94.45 +31.6
Acatenango 53 397 13.4 -£126.72 -31.9
Daylami 93 702 13.2 +£22.30 +3.2
Bob Back 186 1412 13.2 -£404.57 -28.7
Epervier Bleu 39 298 13.1 +£10.27 +3.4
Presenting 404 3110 13.0 -£622.46 -20.0
Pistolet Bleu 106 817 13.0 -£92.18 -11.3

 

Kalanisi tops the list in terms of strike rate; more of that sire a little later. King’s Theatre record requires close scrutiny considering the sire has made a blind profit at SP from over 1100 runs. Normally for such a profit to be made there are usually a few huge priced winners that can skew the figures somewhat. King’s Theatre has only had 3 winners at 33/1 or bigger (biggest being 50/1) and overall runners priced 33/1 or bigger have produced a loss. Indeed both favourites and second favourites have made a profit – 11.5% and 14% respectively. In addition 3rd favourites have broken even, so all in all King’s Theatre is a sire worth noting in National Hunt races. One other point worth noting is that King’s Theatre has sired 143 runners to date; 72 of which have won at least 1 race. This equates to just over 50% which is well above the norm of around 32%.

Let us look at the sires with the poorest strike rates now:

All Races (min. 250 runs; SR 6.5% or less)

Sire Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Rakaposhi King 52 797 6.5 -£426.58 -53.5
Danehill 22 338 6.5 -£179.21 -53.0
Charnwood Forest 21 324 6.5 -£155.11 -47.9
Mister Baileys 17 266 6.4 -£161.17 -60.6
Morpeth 17 267 6.4 -£131.33 -49.2
Cadeaux Genereux 28 445 6.3 -£222.44 -50.0
Mtoto 40 645 6.2 -£399.81 -62.0
Thowra 25 404 6.2 -£96.67 -23.9
Foxhound 25 415 6.0 -£137.30 -33.1
Royal Applause 24 399 6.0 -£190.88 -47.8
El Conquistador 16 266 6.0 -£37.10 -13.9
Rock Hopper 15 259 5.8 -£150.46 -58.1
Zafonic 16 277 5.8 -£181.92 -65.7
Vettori 48 853 5.6 -£342.65 -40.2
Diktat 26 472 5.5 -£302.97 -64.2
Makbul 17 318 5.3 -£122.20 -38.4
Beat All 20 375 5.3 -£248.55 -66.3
Emperor Fountain 16 338 4.7 -£217.88 -64.5
Presidium 12 256 4.7 -£159.92 -62.5
Emperor Jones 12 262 4.6 -£154.25 -58.9
Pursuit of Love 11 402 2.7 -£282.25 -70.2

 

Some familiar flat sires in there. Zafonic for example has a strike rate on the flat during same period of 11.2%; Cadeaux Genereux has a 11.6% strike rate on the flat, while Danehill’s flat strike rate stands at 12.2%. Hence all 3 sires score around half as often over the sticks as compared to the level. Indeed of Danehill’s 47 progeny just 12 have won an NH race (25.5%) – I quite like using this idea another benchmark of a sire’s success rather than just focusing on strike rates and ROIs.

As with any large block of data, it is useful to split it up further and hence let me look at the performance of sires when faced with the larger obstacles. I have used 100 runs or more in terms of qualification:

All Chases (min. 100 runs; SR 15%+)

Sire Wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
Midnight Legend 54 282 19.1 +£128.86 +45.7
Robin Des Pres 21 113 18.6 -£30.72 -27.2
Sleeping Car 22 126 17.5 -£14.04 -11.1
King’s Theatre 42 241 17.4 -£64.11 -26.6
Robin Des Champs 18 105 17.1 +£111.10 +105.8
Nikos 46 269 17.1 +£7.37 +2.7
Passing Sale 29 170 17.1 +£120.45 +70.9
Darshaan 18 106 17.0 -£17.38 -16.4
Needle Gun 30 187 16.0 -£16.30 -8.7
Pistolet Bleu 51 318 16.0 +£5.52 +1.7
Villez 36 225 16.0 -£32.48 -14.4
Sir Harry Lewis 58 365 15.9 +£0.77 +0.2
Flemensfirth 75 476 15.8 -£48.85 -10.3
Witness Box 25 161 15.5 +£134.12 +83.3
Jurado 55 355 15.5 +£66.07 +18.6
Lute Antique 28 181 15.5 +£3.30 +1.8
Bulington 17 110 15.5 +£3.03 +2.8
Accordion 93 606 15.3 -£66.91 -11.0
Beyssac 22 144 15.3 +£14.33 +10.0
Mark of Esteem 17 112 15.2 -£8.54 -7.6
Bob Back 84 560 15.0 -£110.47 -19.7

 

Midnight Legend tops the list and the first point to note is how many of his progeny have won at least once over fences – 25 of the 35 have won equating to 71.4%. This makes me feel that any horse sired by Midnight Legend requires very close scrutiny over fences. The biggest priced winner he has had over fences is just 33/1 and hence the profits of £128.86 are not skewed by big priced winners. In 5 of the 6 seasons of study, Midnight Legend’s chasers have made a blind profit to SP.

A look at the sires who have struggled over fences:

All Chases (min. 100 runs; SR 7% or less)

Sire Wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
Homo Sapien 9 134 6.7 -£60.67 -45.3
Thowra 8 122 6.6 -£33.50 -27.5
Insan 14 218 6.4 -£132.83 -60.9
Mandalus 12 188 6.4 -£110.17 -58.6
Useful 18 286 6.3 -£141.89 -49.6
Warcraft 7 112 6.3 -£75.38 -67.3
Rock Hopper 6 103 5.8 -£48.25 -46.8
Royal Charter 7 126 5.6 -£50.25 -39.9
Jupiter Island 6 118 5.1 -£65.50 -55.5

 

With smallish fields for chases, there is always going to be a smaller number of sires with low strike rates.

Let me move onto hurdle races now. As before I shall look at those sires with the best strike rates first:

All Hurdle races (min. 100 runs; SR 15%+)

Sire Wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
Dubai Destination 20 100 20.0 -£17.59 -17.6
Kalanisi 44 238 18.5 -£14.43 -6.1
Galileo 47 264 17.8 -£50.24 -19.0
Lando 19 111 17.1 +£7.49 +6.7
Sakhee 18 113 15.9 -£38.58 -34.1
Lavirco 17 107 15.9 +£65.35 +61.1
Diesis 30 189 15.9 -£55.50 -29.4
King's Theatre 113 716 15.8 +£58.42 +8.2
Acatenango 40 254 15.7 -£24.93 -9.8
Video Rock 41 266 15.4 -£34.59 -13.0
Sir Harry Lewis 86 558 15.4 +£54.37 +9.7
Insan 17 111 15.3 +£0.06 +0.1
Kahyasi 67 440 15.2 +£50.00 +11.4
Aljabr 17 112 15.2 +£64.88 +57.9

 

Dubai Destination tops the list but the prices of his winners have been fairly short (all bar two have been 11/2 or shorter). Hence, he has made a loss of nearly 18 pence in the £. Kalanisi, who topped the overall standings (all races), has sent mainly hurdlers out to date (92% of his runners have run in hurdle races). One stat worth noting is that Kalanisi male progeny have comfortably outperformed their female counterparts. His male hurdlers have won 35 races from 164 runners (SR 21.3%); female hurdlers have won 9 races from 74 (SR 12.2%). In addition it should be noted that his progeny have not had any big priced winners – indeed those priced 18/1 or bigger have produced 72 consecutive losers. Hence backing his runners priced 16/1 or shorter would have returned you about 35 pence in every £ wagered.

All Hurdle races (min. 100 runs; SR 5% or less)

Sire Wins Runs SR% Profit ROI%
Bertolini 7 141 5.0 -£97.05 -68.8
Averti 6 121 5.0 -£64.50 -53.3
Titus Livius 10 204 4.9 -£17.67 -8.7
Jurado 5 102 4.9 -£21.67 -21.2
Vettori 31 633 4.9 -£242.73 -38.3
Pharly 5 103 4.9 -£51.50 -50.0
Paris House 5 105 4.8 -£50.00 -47.6
Imperial Ballet 6 132 4.5 -£94.88 -71.9
Lujain 5 110 4.5 -£67.88 -61.7
Zafonic 8 187 4.3 -£130.77 -69.9
Rakaposhi King 17 406 4.2 -£293.06 -72.2
Darnay 5 122 4.1 -£97.02 -79.5
Ali-Royal 7 174 4.0 -£107.75 -61.9
Presidium 6 153 3.9 -£106.67 -69.7
Gildoran 4 102 3.9 -£63.00 -61.8
Terimon 14 358 3.9 -£213.17 -59.5
Great Palm 7 180 3.9 -£116.50 -64.7
Sea Raven 5 132 3.8 -£96.67 -73.2
Emperor Fountain 8 213 3.8 -£154.00 -72.3
Compton Place 6 162 3.7 -£117.97 -72.8
Entrepreneur 6 165 3.6 -£124.42 -75.4
Raise A Grand 6 165 3.6 -£101.50 -61.5
Makbul 7 196 3.6 -£47.20 -24.1
Pursuit of Love 10 317 3.2 -£201.00 -63.4
Warcraft 3 102 2.9 -£19.50 -19.1
El Conquistador 4 140 2.9 -£106.00 -75.7
Dancing Spree 3 108 2.8 -£57.50 -53.2
Xaar 5 189 2.6 -£163.85 -86.7
Emperor Jones 4 162 2.5 -£136.50 -84.3
Desert Sun 3 123 2.4 -£105.90 -86.1
Shahrastani 2 107 1.9 -£74.50 -69.6
Royal Academy 2 128 1.6 -£114.50 -89.5
Bahamian Bounty 0 111 0.0 -£111.00 -100.0

 

Plenty of low strike rates over hurdles. Once again, there are several more well known flat sires in the table. Bahamian Bounty has a decent flat record, but more especially over 5 to 7f, so it should really be no surprise that his progeny have struggled over hurdlers. Indeed of the 111 losers, only 5 have managed to place.

One useful use of stats is as a comparison tool so I have compiled of list of sires with their respective strike rates in hurdle races and chases (all sires in the table have had at least 100 runs in chases and 100 runs in hurdles). This information should give us, as punters, an extra insight which should help our selection process. Using sire stats in National Hunt racing can give us that little edge we need:

Sire Hurdle SR Chase SR
Acatenango 15.7 9.0
Accordion 14.1 15.3
Afzal 8.8 10.7
Alderbrook 10.0 14.4
Alflora 8.7 11.0
Anshan 10.9 11.6
Arctic Lord 5.9 9.5
Barathea 7.1 7.8
Be My Native 11.8 11.1
Beneficial 12.6 12.2
Bering 11.0 13.5
Bigstone 7.6 9.8
Bob Back 10.9 15.0
Bob's Return 7.9 11.7
Broken Hearted 9.8 9.9
Cadeaux Genereux 5.1 10.1
Cadoudal 14.5 13.6
Carroll House 8.1 12.2
Charmer 8.8 10.6
Classic Cliche 6.5 9.9
Cloudings 9.4 14.5
Commanche Run 5.4 12.5
Cyborg 10.0 9.8
Darshaan 5.4 17.0
Definite Article 10.0 12.9
Double Trigger 10.1 13.7
Dr Massini 11.6 14.5
Environment Friend 5.8 12.6
Epervier Bleu 14.0 13.6
Executive Perk 11.4 11.7
Exit To Nowhere 6.7 10.6
Fleetwood 10.3 14.4
Flemensfirth 13.1 15.8
Fourstars Allstar 7.5 13.2
Garde Royale 5.2 13.2
Germany 7.8 13.3
Gildoran 3.9 7.5
Glacial Storm 8.2 11.0
Good Thyne 6.9 8.2
Grand Lodge 7.1 8.4
Grand Plaisir 12.3 11.6
Groom Dancer 8.0 7.3
Gunner B 8.7 10.7
Halling 13.0 14.5
In The Wings 13.1 11.3
Insan 15.3 6.4
Jurado 4.9 15.5
Kadalko 8.8 8.3
Kahyasi 15.2 13.9
Karinga Bay 10.2 11.7
Kayf Tara 11.5 13.4
Key Of Luck 12.0 8.3
King's Theatre 15.8 17.4
Linamix 9.3 10.8
Lord Americo 8.8 10.3
Luso 5.6 9.7
Lute Antique 8.6 15.5
Mansonnien 8.8 12.9
Marju 7.3 9.7
Mark of Esteem 9.2 15.2
Midnight Legend 12.0 19.1
Minster Son 5.3 13.3
Mister Lord 7.7 12.0
Moonax 7.3 10.8
Moscow Society 7.0 9.0
Mtoto 5.8 8.1
Naheez 7.0 11.8
Needle Gun 5.1 16.0
Nikos 9.9 17.1
Nomadic Way 6.6 12.8
Norwich 7.0 12.9
Old Vic 10.0 14.7
Oscar 12.2 11.9
Overbury 10.5 13.7
Passing Sale 8.7 17.1
Perugino 8.5 10.9
Petoski 6.3 13.4
Phardante 5.8 8.7
Pistolet Bleu 10.2 16.0
Presenting 12.1 14.2
Primitive Rising 9.4 10.7
Ragmar 7.9 7.3
Rakaposhi King 4.2 10.4
Rashar 10.2 13.0
Robin Des Champs 13.6 17.1
Rock Hopper 6.3 5.8
Roselier 10.6 12.1
Rudimentary 9.9 12.7
Sabrehill 14.6 10.7
Saddlers' Hall 8.2 11.4
Sadler's Wells 10.8 12.0
Selkirk 9.1 9.4
Shernazar 8.7 11.6
Silver Patriarch 7.2 8.8
Simply Great 7.1 9.4
Sir Harry Lewis 15.4 15.9
Sleeping Car 12.5 17.5
Slip Anchor 9.1 8.3
Sovereign Water 7.5 12.9
Spectrum 7.5 9.4
Supreme Leader 12.4 11.9
Taipan 7.1 11.9
Teenoso 8.2 8.9
Terimon 3.9 9.6
Thowra 6.0 6.6
Topanoora 11.0 11.4
Toulon 10.0 13.9
Trempolino 13.0 11.6
Turgeon 7.8 12.1
Turtle Island 6.7 10.8
Un Desperado 5.8 11.6
Unfuwain 11.3 14.9
Useful 10.0 6.3
Vettori 4.9 9.7
Video Rock 15.4 9.7
Villez 8.6 16.0
Warcraft 2.9 6.3
Weld 5.1 12.5
Witness Box 10.0 15.5
Zaffaran 9.8 10.3
Zilzal 13.8 13.2

 

As with all racing stats, it is not simply enough to look at the stats and make a final judgement – they should be used as a starting point from which further investigation will hopefully prove fruitful and ultimately profitable.








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