National Hunt Favourites Who Failed To Finish Last Time Out

Having researched and written approaching 400 articles in the past few years, it is nice to have new ideas from other people. A member of www.punterprofits.com asked me to look into favourites last time out that had fallen in National Hunt races. I decided it would be the basis for a good article, but wanted to incorporate all non-finishers (eg. those that pulled up as well as fell or unseated).

The data for this article was collected from June 1999 to October 2008. All profits and losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.

Let us firstly look at the overall statistics – so all horses in their next race that had in their most recent race started favourite, but failed to finish:

A loss of 11% is not a bad starting point, especially as this could improved upon using Betfair, Betfair SP or early prices. Comparing a loss of 11% to the figure for ALL NH beaten favourites LTO is interesting, as the overall figure is –14%. Therefore, beaten favourites that failed to finish LTO are slightly better investments than your ‘average’ beaten favourite.

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Dave continues in this article to drill down further investigating the effect of  important criteria such 

Race Type

Price

Age of Horse

Days since last horse run

Going

He ends with a simple little system that has demonstrated a 33% long term positive return on investment.