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May Trainers 2013


 

May Trainers 2013 by David Renham

 

Each month on Punter Profits I have a look at past trainer monthly data. We come to April and it is now that the flat season springs into life and hence this article focuses on trainers 'on the level'. I have taken data from the last five May (2008 to 2012) and I have included Irish results as well as UK. All profits/losses have been calculated to SP.

 

All races - a look at trainer performance in every type of contest to begin with focusing on the better performing ones (SR 14%+):

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Prescott, Sir Mark

19

82

23.2

-£6.20

-7.6

O'Brien, A P

88

386

22.8

+£46.99

+12.2

Charlton, R

40

176

22.7

+£38.62

+21.9

Cecil, H R A

54

240

22.5

-£0.38

-0.2

Haggas, W J

56

261

21.5

-£30.85

-11.8

Stoute, Sir Michael

67

319

21.0

-£87.38

-27.4

Varian, Roger

17

86

19.8

-£3.66

-4.3

King, A

12

63

19.0

+£40.75

+64.7

Bethell, J D

19

102

18.6

+£57.13

+56.0

Candy, H

27

145

18.6

+£14.63

+10.1

Noseda, J

37

202

18.3

-£54.45

-27.0

Cumani, L M

40

223

17.9

+£10.56

+4.7

Oxx, John M

30

174

17.2

-£42.64

-24.5

Bolger, J S

50

295

16.9

+£47.49

+16.1

Lanigan, D R

11

65

16.9

-£27.21

-41.9

Gosden, J H M

61

361

16.9

-£90.08

-25.0

Carr, Mrs R A

34

204

16.7

+£66.71

+32.7

Balding, A M

63

385

16.4

+£23.62

+6.1

Saunders, M S

15

92

16.3

-£14.18

-15.4

Hannon, R

144

896

16.1

-£81.74

-9.1

Harker, G A

12

75

16.0

+£5.38

+7.2

Lyons, G M

33

209

15.8

-£3.71

-1.8

Bell, M L W

42

269

15.6

-£38.42

-14.3

Cowell, R M H

9

58

15.5

+£20.17

+34.8

Weld, D K

45

300

15.0

-£111.59

-37.2

Tregoning, M P

15

102

14.7

-£14.66

-14.4

Ryan, K A

82

559

14.7

-£1.75

-0.3

Dascombe, Tom

36

249

14.5

-£19.21

-7.7

Stack, T

20

139

14.4

-£45.12

-32.5

Chapple-Hyam, P W

19

133

14.3

-£53.81

-40.5

Dunlop, J L

33

234

14.1

+£5.47

+2.3

Fahey, R A

107

764

14.0

-£162.85

-21.3

 

Sir Mark Prescott tops the list in terms of strike rate, but backing all his runners would have yielded a small loss. You would have made a profit with Prescott runners if sticking to handicap races (around 24p in the £) thanks to a 30% strike rate. Indeed sticking with handicaps, if you focused on horses that ran in a maiden LTO you would have had 8 winners from just 22 runners producing a profit of £21.00 (ROI +95.5%).

 

Aidan O'Brien's record looks good on the face of it, but a 66/1 winner skews the profit figure somewhat. He should be noted when sending his runners to Chester though as he saddled an impressive 11 winners from 26 runners for a profit of £34.91 (ROI + 134.3%).

 

Roger Charlton has a good record at this time of the year and rates third in the list in terms of strike rate. There are not many clear angles to follow as he seems to well across the board. However it is best to stick with horses that have already run that season as they have scored 26% of the time compared with 16% with those that are making seasonal debut.

 

Onto the trainers now who have struggled in April:

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Grassick, M J

5

83

6.0

-£46.50

-56.0

Moffatt, James

3

50

6.0

-£34.30

-68.6

Quinn, M

4

67

6.0

-£39.50

-59.0

Fanshawe, J R

9

151

6.0

-£94.75

-62.7

Ryan, J

4

68

5.9

-£52.00

-76.5

Dore, C R

5

86

5.8

-£39.67

-46.1

Harty, Edward P

3

52

5.8

-£30.50

-58.7

Gallagher, J

6

105

5.7

-£36.17

-34.4

Portman, J G

8

141

5.7

-£41.87

-29.7

McEntee, P S

3

55

5.5

-£31.00

-56.4

McCreery, W

5

92

5.4

-£46.00

-50.0

Weymes, J R

6

112

5.4

-£17.50

-15.6

Easterby, M W

14

262

5.3

-£115.00

-43.9

Dwyer, C A

4

76

5.3

-£31.50

-41.4

Oldroyd, G R

3

57

5.3

-£34.00

-59.6

Bridger, J J

6

117

5.1

-£66.75

-57.1

McGuinness, Adrian

4

80

5.0

-£33.50

-41.9

Dow, S

4

81

4.9

-£46.75

-57.7

Palling, B

5

102

4.9

-£68.25

-66.9

Botti, M

7

143

4.9

-£82.75

-57.9

Pearce, J

3

62

4.8

-£29.00

-46.8

Condon, K J

4

83

4.8

-£66.42

-80.0

O'Keeffe, Jedd

4

84

4.8

-£56.62

-67.4

Prendergast, P J

3

63

4.8

-£14.20

-22.5

Eddery, Pat

4

85

4.7

-£50.50

-59.4

McInnes, I W

6

132

4.5

-£24.50

-18.6

Davis, D J S Ffrench

3

67

4.5

-£46.50

-69.4

Guest, Rae

4

90

4.4

-£54.50

-60.6

Attwater, M J

4

92

4.3

-£19.00

-20.7

Wigham, M

3

70

4.3

-£49.00

-70.0

Rogers, H

5

118

4.2

-£75.00

-63.6

Dunnett, Mrs C A

4

95

4.2

-£69.67

-73.3

Brittain, M

6

145

4.1

-£73.75

-50.9

McCourt, T G

4

98

4.1

-£51.00

-52.0

Blanshard, M

3

76

3.9

-£52.00

-68.4

Powell, B G

4

102

3.9

-£51.00

-50.0

Williams, S C

5

130

3.8

-£104.17

-80.1

Liddiard, Stef

2

53

3.8

-£38.50

-72.6

Vaughan, N J

2

53

3.8

-£25.00

-47.2

Ivory, D K

4

107

3.7

-£65.00

-60.7

Williamson, Mrs L

2

55

3.6

-£8.00

-14.5

George, Karen

2

56

3.6

-£41.50

-74.1

Bradley, J M

7

199

3.5

-£132.00

-66.3

Berry, A

6

175

3.4

-£88.42

-50.5

Musson, W J

3

90

3.3

-£63.25

-70.3

Loughnane, Daniel Mark

2

65

3.1

-£47.00

-72.3

Phelan, P M

2

65

3.1

-£52.25

-80.4

Teague, C J

2

69

2.9

-£28.00

-40.6

Wood, I A

2

69

2.9

-£41.00

-59.4

Gorman, J T

2

85

2.4

-£69.00

-81.2

Murphy, John Joseph

2

121

1.7

-£105.00

-86.8

Brown, A D

1

62

1.6

-£57.00

-91.9

McConnell, John C

1

63

1.6

-£59.25

-94.0

Wainwright, J S

1

70

1.4

-£62.00

-88.6

Camacho, Miss J A

0

63

0.0

-£63.00

-100.0

Chapman, M C

0

70

0.0

-£70.00

-100.0

Doyle, Timothy

0

63

0.0

-£63.00

-100.0

Grayson, Peter

0

67

0.0

-£67.00

-100.0

 

All these trainers look worth swerving this month.

 

A look at 2yo maidens next. I am going to show all trainers that have at least 25 runners in 2yo maidens in the last 5 years (in May):

 

2yo maidens

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Noseda, J

9

26

34.6

+£29.45

+113.3

O'Brien, A P

16

64

25.0

-£6.32

-9.9

Smart, B

9

38

23.7

+£15.76

+41.5

Hannon, R

53

233

22.7

+£47.16

+20.2

Dascombe, Tom

14

64

21.9

+£8.24

+12.9

Channon, M R

31

145

21.4

+£7.96

+5.5

Bolger, J S

10

49

20.4

+£4.92

+10.0

Fahey, R A

18

89

20.2

+£31.04

+34.9

Johnston, M

19

95

20.0

-£4.58

-4.8

Brittain, C E

7

36

19.4

+£1.08

+3.0

Brown, D H

5

27

18.5

+£8.88

+32.9

Dunlop, E A L

6

33

18.2

-£14.37

-43.5

Lyons, G M

7

39

17.9

-£3.00

-7.7

Prendergast, Kevin

6

36

16.7

-£3.75

-10.4

Ryan, K A

18

115

15.7

-£22.39

-19.5

Portman, J G

4

26

15.4

+£42.38

+163.0

Stack, T

4

26

15.4

-£17.45

-67.1

Cole, P F I

7

48

14.6

-£21.45

-44.7

Moore, J S

5

35

14.3

+£10.83

+30.9

Turner, W G M

4

30

13.3

-£7.12

-23.7

Weld, D K

5

38

13.2

-£2.70

-7.1

Barron, T D

3

25

12.0

-£16.49

-66.0

Beckett, R M

4

35

11.4

-£6.25

-17.9

Nicholls, D

3

30

10.0

+£21.00

+70.0

Meehan, B J

6

73

8.2

-£50.72

-69.5

Deegan, P D

2

26

7.7

-£2.00

-7.7

Wachman, David

3

41

7.3

-£33.20

-81.0

Evans, P D

5

80

6.3

-£69.06

-86.3

Easterby, T D

8

130

6.2

-£61.77

-47.5

Kirk, S

2

33

6.1

+£13.50

+40.9

Millman, B R

1

25

4.0

-£8.00

-32.0

Weymes, J R

1

25

4.0

+£4.00

+16.0

Midgley, P T

2

51

3.9

+£29.00

+56.9

Osborne, J A

1

27

3.7

-£21.00

-77.8

Duffield, Mrs A

1

28

3.6

-£16.00

-57.1

Tinkler, N

1

30

3.3

-£26.25

-87.5

Easterby, M W

1

31

3.2

+£3.00

+9.7

Hills, J W

1

36

2.8

-£28.00

-77.8

McCabe, A J

1

44

2.3

-£39.67

-90.2

 

Several trainers to note here and all those with a strike rate of 20% or more are worth keeping a close eye on. One trainer who has a surprisingly poor record is Brian Meehan. He has a reasonable overall record with 2yo maidens but in May he really struggles.

 

Richard Hannon is a trainer who always has a large string of 2yos. His runners have done well to make an overall blind profit considering how many runners he has in May each year. He has a particularly good record at Goodwood with his 2yo maiden runners - 15 wins from 41 for a profit of £31.84 (ROI +77.7%).

 

Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps. Again I am only including trainers that have saddled at least 25 runners:

 

3yo only handicaps

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Prescott, Sir Mark

10

32

31.3

+£14.42

+45.1

Bolger, J S

8

26

30.8

+£57.66

+221.8

Noseda, J

8

34

23.5

-£5.74

-16.9

Dods, M

12

52

23.1

+£19.35

+37.2

Candy, H

6

27

22.2

+£6.52

+24.1

Cumani, L M

8

36

22.2

+£3.75

+10.4

Bell, M L W

22

108

20.4

-£7.79

-7.2

Lyons, G M

9

46

19.6

+£11.75

+25.5

Elsworth, D R C

8

41

19.5

+£59.75

+145.7

Charlton, R

11

61

18.0

-£4.17

-6.8

Morrison, H

13

73

17.8

-£2.75

-3.8

Chapple-Hyam, P W

5

29

17.2

+£7.20

+24.8

Ryan, K A

21

123

17.1

+£74.51

+60.6

Cecil, H R A

6

36

16.7

-£13.75

-38.2

Easterby, M W

8

49

16.3

+£4.00

+8.2

Stoute, Sir Michael

10

64

15.6

-£34.34

-53.7

Dunlop, J L

14

91

15.4

-£7.41

-8.1

Halford, M

6

39

15.4

+£1.75

+4.5

Simcock, D M

7

49

14.3

+£15.50

+31.6

Balding, A M

13

92

14.1

-£7.62

-8.3

Fahey, R A

22

160

13.8

-£33.21

-20.8

Kirk, S

10

75

13.3

+£3.00

+4.0

Vaughan, E F

4

31

12.9

+£6.00

+19.4

Barron, T D

6

48

12.5

-£16.80

-35.0

Usher, M D I

4

32

12.5

+£14.33

+44.8

Guest, R C

4

33

12.1

£38.50

+116.7

Johnston, M

34

283

12.0

-£97.41

-34.4

Millman, B R

4

34

11.8

+£16.00

+47.1

Swinburn, W R

6

53

11.3

-£2.17

-4.1

Burke, K R

4

36

11.1

+£1.25

+3.5

Cox, C G

6

54

11.1

-£21.54

-39.9

Dascombe, Tom

6

54

11.1

-£5.75

-10.6

Jarvis, W

3

27

11.1

-£8.87

-32.9

Best, J R

5

46

10.9

+£44.00

+95.7

Beckett, R M

7

65

10.8

+£2.50

+3.8

Dunlop, E A L

8

75

10.7

-£30.62

-40.8

Wachman, David

3

29

10.3

-£6.92

-23.9

Boyle, J R

4

40

10.0

+£3.50

+8.8

Deegan, P D

4

41

9.8

-£8.00

-19.5

Hannon, R

25

263

9.5

-£8.69

-3.3

Gosden, J H M

7

74

9.5

-£40.48

-54.7

Quinn, J J

3

32

9.4

-£15.37

-48.0

Given, J G

5

54

9.3

-£19.50

-36.1

Hills, J W

5

54

9.3

+£3.50

+6.5

Perrett, Mrs A J

5

55

9.1

-£12.00

-21.8

Osborne, J A

3

34

8.8

+£0.00

+0.0

Harris, R A

3

35

8.6

+£2.50

+7.1

Gallagher, J

2

25

8.0

+£18.00

+72.0

Muir, W R

4

50

8.0

-£32.87

-65.7

Meehan, B J

7

89

7.9

-£56.49

-63.5

Brisbourne, W M

2

26

7.7

+£18.00

+69.2

Brittain, C E

4

52

7.7

-£6.75

-13.0

Ellison, B

2

26

7.7

-£17.12

-65.8

Knight, W J

3

39

7.7

-£8.50

-21.8

Haggas, W J

3

40

7.5

-£30.02

-75.1

Eddery, Pat

2

27

7.4

-£12.50

-46.3

Easterby, T D

9

123

7.3

-£64.77

-52.7

Cole, P F I

4

56

7.1

-£25.50

-45.5

Duffield, Mrs A

3

42

7.1

-£7.50

-17.9

Channon, M R

14

207

6.8

-£117.79

-56.9

Nicholls, D

3

46

6.5

-£7.17

-15.6

Eustace, J M P

2

31

6.5

+£5.00

+16.1

Moore, G L

3

48

6.3

-£37.88

-78.9

Prendergast, Kevin

2

33

6.1

-£16.00

-48.5

Houghton, Eve Johnson

2

35

5.7

+£35.00

+100.0

Dunlop, H J L

2

36

5.6

-£9.00

-25.0

McCabe, A J

2

36

5.6

£6.50

18.1

Swinbank, G A

2

36

5.6

-£19.50

-54.2

Midgley, P T

2

45

4.4

-£33.00

-73.3

Smart, B

2

48

4.2

-£33.00

-68.8

Portman, J G

2

49

4.1

-£33.25

-67.9

Brittain, M

1

25

4.0

-£18.00

-72.0

Tompkins, M H

2

51

3.9

-£32.50

-63.7

Hollinshead, R

1

28

3.6

+£6.00

+21.4

Evans, P D

3

91

3.3

-£49.00

-53.8

Jarvis, A P

1

32

3.1

-£22.50

-70.3

Botti, M

1

35

2.9

-£23.00

-65.7

Moore, J S

1

35

2.9

-£22.00

-62.9

Tate, T P

1

38

2.6

-£35.37

-93.1

Blanshard, M

0

25

0.0

-£25.00

-100.0

Carroll, D

0

32

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

Murphy, John Joseph

0

29

0.0

-£29.00

-100.0

Palling, B

0

26

0.0

-£26.00

-100.0

Whitaker, R M

0

30

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

 

Again trainers with an SR% of 20% or more are worth close scrutiny.

 

Hopefully there is enough trainer data to help improve your chances of beating the bookies this month.

 








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