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May Trainers 2012


May Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

This month I am looking at trainer performance in May on the flat. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of May with data taken from 2007 to 2011.

May sees the flat season clicking into gear with the first classics, coupled with numerous meetings on some days (up to 5 or 6 on some days).

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (May 07-11) – 70 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Henry Cecil

52

226

23.0

-£17.98

-8.0

Sir Michael Stoute

74

336

22.0

-£86.92

-25.9

Aidan O'Brien

16

73

21.9

+£23.72

+32.5

Roger Charlton

37

179

20.7

+£10.73

+6.0

Sir Mark Prescott

21

102

20.6

+£11.21

+11.0

Jeremy Noseda

40

208

19.2

-£54.45

-26.2

Mahmood Al Zarooni

16

85

18.8

+£19.72

+23.2

William Haggas

46

246

18.7

-£51.53

-21.0

Luca Cumani

41

220

18.6

+£20.04

+9.1

Henry Candy

25

141

17.7

-£3.07

-2.2

John Gosden

57

332

17.2

-£67.33

-20.3

Ruth Carr

25

149

16.8

+£39.70

+26.7

Peter Chapple-Hyam

23

139

16.6

-£43.72

-31.5

James Bethell

18

109

16.5

+£42.88

+39.3

Ian Semple

14

87

16.1

+£45.25

+52.0

Andrew Balding

53

333

15.9

+£13.80

+4.1

Malcolm Saunders

13

82

15.9

-£10.68

-13.0

John Dunlop

40

255

15.7

+£45.45

+17.8

Richard Hannon

127

837

15.2

-£138.84

-16.6

Alan King

11

74

14.9

+£9.75

+13.2

Mark Johnston

103

694

14.8

-£151.53

-21.8

Tom Dascombe

29

196

14.8

-£12.01

-6.1

Chris Wall

22

149

14.8

+£35.83

+24.1

David Barron

38

271

14.0

-£50.39

-18.6

 

 

Henry Cecil tops the list in terms of strike rate but you still would have made a loss backing all his runners. He has been very consistent however, as his strike rate has exceeded 20% in each of the last five seasons. There are a few angles that would have seen you profit from Cecil runners:

 

 

- Favourites have won 33 races from 70 for a profit of £12.19 (ROI +17.4%);

- 3yo fillies have won 20 races from 83 for a profit of £20.06 (ROI +24.2%);

- 3yo maidens for fillies only have produced 12 winners from 38 for a profit of £19.33 (ROI +50.9%).

 

 

Irish raider Aidan O’Brien should be noted at the Chester May meeting as he has saddled 10 winners from 24 for a profit of £35.25 (ROI +146.9%). He also has a very good record with his 3yos in the month of May saddling 12 winners from 53 for a profit of £33.62 (ROI +63.4%).

 

 

Roger Charlton’s runners start to click into gear in May and he does particularly well with horses returning to the track within 5 weeks of their last run – 28 wins from 112 for a profit of £42.22 (ROI 37.7%).

 

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

 

All races (May 07-11) – 70 runs+ (SR 5.5% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Jedd O'Keeffe

5

91

5.5

-£61.96

-68.1

Conor Dore

4

76

5.3

-£37.00

-48.7

Patrick Morris

5

96

5.2

-£52.25

-54.4

John Bridger

6

118

5.1

-£58.00

-49.2

Marco Botti

6

121

5.0

-£68.25

-56.4

Mark Brisbourne

10

206

4.9

-£86.00

-41.8

Noel Wilson

5

104

4.8

-£59.50

-57.2

Milton Bradley

12

250

4.8

-£136.50

-54.6

Christine Dunnett

4

88

4.6

-£62.67

-71.2

Jonathan Portman

6

133

4.5

-£44.63

-33.6

Dominic Ffrench Davis

3

70

4.3

-£49.50

-70.7

Bryn Palling

5

117

4.3

-£83.25

-71.2

Stuart Williams

5

120

4.2

-£94.17

-78.5

John Weymes

5

124

4.0

-£36.50

-29.4

Ian Wood

3

75

4.0

-£44.00

-58.7

Jeff Pearce

3

78

3.9

-£45.00

-57.7

Mel Brittain

5

152

3.3

-£84.17

-55.4

Michael Blanshard

3

92

3.3

-£68.00

-73.9

Alan Berry

6

188

3.2

-£70.42

-37.5

Michael Attwater

2

76

2.6

-£50.00

-65.8

Michael Wigham

2

77

2.6

-£70.00

-90.9

John Wainwright

2

80

2.5

-£51.00

-63.8

Michael Chapman

1

82

1.2

-£75.50

-92.1

Peter Grayson

1

90

1.1

-£79.00

-87.8

 

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

 

 

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in May since 2007. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:

 

 

All 2yo maiden races (May 07-11) – 20 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Jeremy Noseda

10

26

38.5

+£31.70

+121.9

Bryan Smart

10

42

23.8

+£7.01

+16.7

Michael Dods

5

21

23.8

+£20.80

+99.1

Mick Channon

33

144

22.9

+£13.73

+9.5

Tom Dascombe

10

45

22.2

+£3.52

+7.8

Richard Hannon

48

229

21.0

+£30.72

+13.4

Richard Fahey

15

76

19.7

+£33.00

+43.4

Paul Cole

8

42

19.1

-£9.46

-22.5

Clive Brittain

7

38

18.4

-£0.92

-2.4

Mark Johnston

17

93

18.3

-£14.59

-15.7

Alan Jarvis

4

23

17.4

+£43.83

+190.6

Ed Dunlop

5

30

16.7

-£14.00

-46.7

Linda Stubbs

4

24

16.7

£17.75

74.0

David Barron

4

25

16.0

-£3.50

-14.0

David Elsworth

3

20

15.0

-£5.68

-28.4

Sir Mark Prescott

3

20

15.0

+£21.20

+106.0

J S Moore

5

34

14.7

+£11.83

+34.8

David Brown

3

21

14.3

-£4.63

-22.0

Ed McMahon

3

23

13.0

-£2.13

-9.2

Michael Bell

3

23

13.0

-£8.65

-37.6

Jamie Osborne

4

31

12.9

-£15.88

-51.2

Jonathan Portman

4

31

12.9

+£37.38

+120.6

Kevin Ryan

13

109

11.9

-£31.71

-29.1

David Nicholls

3

26

11.5

+£25.00

+96.2

Howard Johnson

4

35

11.4

-£13.64

-39.0

William Muir

2

20

10.0

+£7.00

+35.0

Brian Meehan

6

70

8.6

-£37.52

-53.6

Clive Cox

2

25

8.0

-£13.50

-54.0

Mahmood Al Zarooni

2

25

8.0

-£16.17

-64.7

Bill Turner

2

26

7.7

+£38.00

+146.2

Ann Duffield

2

29

6.9

-£13.50

-46.6

Tim Easterby

7

110

6.4

-£70.77

-64.3

David Evans

5

84

6.0

-£73.06

-87.0

Sylvester Kirk

2

35

5.7

£11.50

32.9

Ralph Beckett

2

37

5.4

-£20.50

-55.4

Andrew Balding

1

20

5.0

-£17.50

-87.5

John Jenkins

1

20

5.0

-£5.00

-25.0

John Weymes

1

23

4.4

+£6.00

+26.1

Paul Midgley

2

51

3.9

+£29.00

+56.9

Rod Millman

1

26

3.9

-£20.00

-76.9

Nigel Tinkler

1

27

3.7

-£23.25

-86.1

John Gosden

1

30

3.3

-£25.50

-85.0

Mel Brittain

1

32

3.1

-£28.50

-89.1

Michael Easterby

1

33

3.0

+£1.00

+3.0

Alan McCabe

1

39

2.6

-£34.67

-88.9

John Hills

1

39

2.6

-£31.00

-79.5

Alan Berry

0

27

0.0

-£27.00

-100.0

 

 

This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition 2yo maiden facts:

 

 

- Jeremy Noseda has run 11 fillies of which 7 have won;

- Bryan Smart is 3 wins from 6 at Musselburgh and 3 wins from 5 at Hamilton;

- Richard Hannon has performed particularly well with favourites or second favourites. They have combined to produce 35 winners from 93 for a profit of £19.73 (ROI +21.2%);

- Richard Fahey has won 11 races from 50 with debutants for a profit of £41.00 (ROI +82%);

- Mick Channon has made a profit in 4 of the 5 Mays with runners that had previously run;

- Kevin Ryan has a 14% strike rate with his debutants in May compared with only 8.9% with horses that have previously run;

- Tim Easterby has scored with just 2 debutants (he has 57 maidens making their debut).

 

 

Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of May.

 








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