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May Trainers 2011


 

May Trainers (Flat) 2011 by David Renham

Each month I have tried to write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of May with data taken from 2005 to 2010.

May sees the flat season clicking into gear with the first classics, coupled with numerous meetings on some days (up to 5 or 6 on some days).

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (May 05-10) – 75 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Michael Stoute

109

422

25.8

-£58.51

-13.9

H R A Cecil

47

209

22.5

-£2.75

-1.3

A P O'Brien

20

92

21.7

+£31.80

+34.6

M A Jarvis

70

323

21.7

+£14.61

+4.5

Sir Mark Prescott

23

113

20.4

+£29.85

+26.4

R Charlton

40

203

19.7

-£16.51

-8.1

P W Chapple-Hyam

32

163

19.6

-£10.78

-6.6

L M Cumani

43

232

18.5

+£50.53

+21.8

W J Haggas

47

257

18.3

-£20.71

-8.1

J Noseda

44

243

18.1

-£81.00

-33.3

J H M Gosden

64

366

17.5

-£65.58

-17.9

T D Barron

57

345

16.5

+£30.19

+8.8

N A Callaghan

13

84

15.5

-£1.00

-1.2

R M H Cowell

14

91

15.4

+£26.17

+28.8

E J O'Neill

15

98

15.3

-£23.92

-24.4

P J Makin

16

106

15.1

+£96.38

+90.9

H Candy

22

147

15.0

-£13.92

-9.5

B W Hills

68

458

14.9

-£79.78

-17.4

R Hannon

146

985

14.8

-£196.78

-20.0

M J Wallace

12

81

14.8

-£37.16

-45.9

Mrs A Duffield

25

171

14.6

+£53.33

+31.2

Mrs R Carr

14

97

14.4

+£9.00

+9.3

B Smart

41

285

14.4

-£34.60

-12.1

J L Dunlop

46

320

14.4

-£1.74

-0.5

M L W Bell

45

316

14.2

-£88.42

-28.0

 

Luca Cumani had an outstanding May last season (2010) with 12 wins from 46 (SR 26.1%) for a healthy profit of £56.19 (ROI +122.2%). Although combining the other years together he has made a small loss, he seems to be a trainer who does click into gear in May. He has not got the ammunition of 15 years ago, but he is still a high class trainer. It looks best to avoid horses making their career debuts, but keep horses that finished in the first six LTO on the right side of you.

 

Sir Michael Stoute traditionally performs well in May, but it is such a well known fact these days you can no longer just back him “blind” (you could have done between 2001 and 2005). His favourites have still proved profitable as have 4yo runners.

 

Henry Cecil’s runners have made a profit in the last 3 seasons – the value has been with horses that finished 3rd to 5th LTO – they have provided an impressive 20 winners from 64 (SR 31.3%) for a profit of £34.17 (ROI + 53.4%).

 

Sir Mark Prescott’s stable tends to get into gear in June, but his May record has been impressive. This is especially so when teaming up with Seb Sanders. They have combined to win 18 races from 70 runners (SR 25.7%) for a profit of £43.36 (ROI +61.9%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (May 05-10) – 75 runs+ (SR 5% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

J M Bradley

21

419

5.0

-£245.25

-58.5

S C Williams

6

121

5.0

-£90.17

-74.5

R J Price

5

101

5.0

-£54.50

-54.0

W M Brisbourne

14

284

4.9

-£24.25

-8.5

Mrs C A Dunnett

7

143

4.9

-£70.67

-49.4

R E Barr

5

103

4.9

-£42.50

-41.3

D J S FfrenchDavis

4

84

4.8

-£58.50

-69.6

J J Bridger

7

151

4.6

-£51.50

-34.1

D W Chapman

4

87

4.6

-£47.50

-54.6

Stef Liddiard

4

91

4.4

-£40.50

-44.5

J G Portman

5

118

4.2

-£37.63

-31.9

M Botti

4

100

4.0

-£72.25

-72.3

Miss J Feilden

4

102

3.9

+£10.07

+9.9

M Brittain

6

154

3.9

-£60.17

-39.1

M D I Usher

5

129

3.9

-£74.17

-57.5

Mrs P N Dutfield

3

78

3.9

-£57.50

-73.7

R Hollinshead

7

186

3.8

-£132.90

-71.5

A Berry

10

271

3.7

-£122.92

-45.4

M Wigham

3

86

3.5

-£74.50

-86.6

M C Chapman

3

89

3.4

-£56.50

-63.5

J S Wainwright

4

122

3.3

-£75.50

-61.9

Peter Grayson

3

112

2.7

-£78.00

-69.6

P S McEntee

2

81

2.5

-£68.75

-84.9

Miss J A Camacho

2

82

2.4

-£54.00

-65.9

M Mullineaux

2

83

2.4

£60.00

72.3

N Wilson

3

127

2.4

-£91.00

-71.7

J Balding

1

79

1.3

-£74.50

-94.3

D A Nolan

0

76

0.0

-£76.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. It is surprising to see Marco Botti in there – his overall strike rate is nearer 13% so his May results have clearly been poor in recent years.

 

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in May since 2005. I have included all trainers with at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (May 05-10) – 25 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

B Smart

14

47

29.8

+£35.01

+74.5

J Noseda

10

36

27.8

-£4.87

-13.5

M R Channon

33

154

21.4

+£4.83

+3.1

T G Dascombe

7

33

21.2

+£1.55

+4.7

R Hannon

48

239

20.1

-£2.34

-1.0

K R Burke

10

53

18.9

+£28.00

+52.8

E J O'Neill

6

32

18.8

-£2.50

-7.8

J A Osborne

9

50

18.0

+£9.95

+19.9

R A Fahey

12

68

17.7

+£40.50

+59.6

E A L Dunlop

6

34

17.7

-£13.25

-39.0

C E Brittain

7

41

17.1

-£3.92

-9.6

P F I Cole

8

47

17.0

-£3.63

-7.7

B W Hills

10

59

17.0

-£32.51

-55.1

T D Barron

5

31

16.1

-£0.15

-0.5

Mrs L Stubbs

4

26

15.4

+£58.75

+226.0

M Johnston

16

105

15.2

-£26.58

-25.3

D Nicholls

5

35

14.3

+£41.00

+117.1

J Howard Johnson

5

36

13.9

+£6.36

+17.7

J G Portman

4

29

13.8

+£39.38

+135.8

M L W Bell

4

31

12.9

-£14.15

-45.7

K A Ryan

16

129

12.4

-£18.02

-14.0

B J Meehan

9

77

11.7

-£30.81

-40.0

P C Haslam

3

27

11.1

-£1.25

-4.6

J H M Gosden

4

37

10.8

-£13.75

-37.2

J S Moore

4

38

10.5

+£1.83

+4.8

E S McMahon

3

31

9.7

-£10.13

-32.7

P D Evans

6

76

7.9

-£47.64

-62.7

W G M Turner

3

38

7.9

+£27.53

+72.5

T D Easterby

7

131

5.3

-£103.03

-78.7

R M Beckett

2

43

4.7

-£26.50

-61.6

S Kirk

2

43

4.7

+£3.50

+8.1

M W Easterby

2

46

4.4

-£28.00

-60.9

P T Midgley

2

47

4.3

+£33.00

+70.2

A M Balding

1

25

4.0

-£22.50

-90.0

J R Jenkins

1

25

4.0

-£10.00

-40.0

J R Weymes

1

25

4.0

+£4.00

+16.0

Mrs A Duffield

1

27

3.7

-£23.50

-87.0

M Brittain

1

32

3.1

-£28.50

-89.1

B R Millman

1

34

2.9

-£28.00

-82.4

A Berry

0

42

0.0

-£42.00

-100.0

J W Hills

0

38

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

N Tinkler

0

36

0.0

-£36.00

-100.0

A J Mccabe

0

29

0.0

-£29.00

-100.0

 

This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. Bryan Smart is 6 wins from 8 at Musselburgh which is worth noting. Richard Hannon has done well with his fancied 2yo maidens in May – those favourite or second favourite have combined to produce 37 winners from 99 (SR 37.4%) for a profit of £24.16 (ROI +24.4%).

 

Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of May.

 

 








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