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May Trainers


 

May Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I have tried to write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of May with data taken from 2004 to 2009.

May sees the flat season clicking into gear with the first classics, coupled with numerous meetings on some days (up to 5 or 6 on some days).

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (May 04-09) – 80 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir M Stoute

110

392

28.1

-£4.77

-1.2

A O'Brien

20

85

23.5

+£36.55

+43.0

H Cecil

38

186

20.4

-£17.87

-9.6

P Chapple-Hyam

29

143

20.3

-£7.38

-5.2

Sir M Prescott

17

86

19.8

+£29.08

+33.8

M Jarvis

61

311

19.6

-£23.46

-7.5

J Noseda

43

226

19.0

-£69.24

-30.6

S Bin Suroor

36

198

18.2

-£47.25

-23.9

W Haggas

45

248

18.2

+£9.63

+3.9

R Charlton

37

210

17.6

-£46.78

-22.3

J Gosden

64

373

17.2

-£79.62

-21.4

M Tregoning

23

137

16.8

-£5.86

-4.3

L Cumani

37

222

16.7

-£5.16

-2.3

M Quinlan

16

96

16.7

+£76.22

+79.4

Mrs A Duffield

26

164

15.9

+£43.08

+26.3

C Cox

26

170

15.3

+£12.76

+7.5

T Barron

51

338

15.1

+£2.90

+0.9

M Wallace

15

100

15.0

-£28.16

-28.2

M Johnston

104

704

14.8

-£172.18

-24.5

E O'Neill

16

109

14.7

-£30.42

-27.9

R Cowell

17

116

14.7

+£19.67

+17.0

E Johnson Houghton

13

89

14.6

+£13.38

+15.0

B Hills

69

475

14.5

-£110.59

-23.3

D Simcock

16

112

14.3

-£7.10

-6.3

P Makin

15

105

14.3

+£96.38

+91.8

E Dunlop

45

319

14.1

-£74.60

-23.4

 

Sir Michael Stoute has a good overall record in May from a large number of runners. However, before we get too excited, let us do a yearly breakdown for his runners:

 

Year

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

2004

15

51

29.4

+£32.65

+64.0

2005

16

54

29.6

+£12.19

+22.6

2006

29

81

35.8

-£4.36

-5.4

2007

18

77

23.4

-£17.09

-22.2

2008

11

63

17.5

-£24.76

-39.3

2009

21

66

31.8

-£3.40

-5.2

 

2004 and 2005 were profitable for Stoute in May, but the last 4 have not been. This is despite outstanding strike rates in 206 and 2009. The market seems to have this angle ‘covered’. Having said that, his record with favourites has been very solid, with 74 wins from 148 runners (SR 50.0%) for a profit of £17.73 (ROI +12.0%). He has made a profit with favourites in May 5 times out of 6.

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (May 04-09) – 80 runs+ (SR 5.5% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

J Bridger

8

148

5.4

-£38.50

-26.0

B Palling

7

132

5.3

-£63.67

-48.2

J Bradley

26

501

5.2

-£227.60

-45.4

R Hodges

5

101

5.0

-£70.47

-69.8

J Jenkins

8

162

4.9

-£95.88

-59.2

M Hammond

4

81

4.9

-£36.00

-44.4

C Dwyer

4

83

4.8

-£48.50

-58.4

J Balding

5

104

4.8

-£56.50

-54.3

R Guest

4

84

4.8

-£53.00

-63.1

J Portman

5

107

4.7

-£26.63

-24.9

M Brittain

7

151

4.6

-£47.17

-31.2

J R Best

7

158

4.4

-£82.50

-52.2

R Hollinshead

8

197

4.1

-£110.50

-56.1

R Barr

4

100

4.0

-£46.00

-46.0

Mrs P Dutfield

4

105

3.8

-£78.00

-74.3

A Berry

12

317

3.8

-£145.92

-46.0

M Wigham

3

80

3.8

-£68.50

-85.6

M Polglase

3

85

3.5

-£66.00

-77.7

Mrs C Dunnett

5

144

3.5

-£77.00

-53.5

S Williams

4

116

3.5

-£96.00

-82.8

Miss J Feilden

3

98

3.1

+£9.57

+9.8

P Grayson

3

104

2.9

-£70.00

-67.3

P McEntee

2

96

2.1

-£83.75

-87.2

N Wilson

2

98

2.0

-£72.00

-73.5

M Mullineaux

1

85

1.2

-£68.00

-80.0

Miss A Stokell

0

80

0.0

-£80.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month. It is surprising to see John Best in there – his overall strike rate is nearer 10% so his May results have clearly been poor in recent years.

 

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in May since 2004. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (May 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

J Noseda

9

34

26.5

-£4.21

-12.4

B Smart

12

46

26.1

+£23.91

+52.0

M Quinlan

7

27

25.9

+£33.32

+123.4

M Channon

33

141

23.4

+£20.74

+14.7

J Osborne

8

42

19.1

+£11.95

+28.5

T Dascombe

4

21

19.1

-£2.83

-13.5

R Hannon

42

222

18.9

+£9.72

+4.4

E Dunlop

6

32

18.8

-£11.25

-35.2

M Johnston

21

115

18.3

-£13.25

-11.5

J J Quinn

4

22

18.2

+£11.38

+51.7

E O'Neill

6

34

17.7

-£4.50

-13.2

K R Burke

10

57

17.5

+£24.00

+42.1

M Tregoning

4

23

17.4

+£5.75

+25.0

J Howard Johnson

5

29

17.2

+£13.36

+46.1

B Hills

9

54

16.7

-£28.91

-53.5

M Bell

6

36

16.7

-£17.83

-49.5

T Barron

5

30

16.7

+£0.85

+2.8

J Portman

4

24

16.7

+£44.38

+184.9

R Fahey

9

56

16.1

+£42.00

+75.0

Mrs L Stubbs

4

25

16.0

+£59.75

+239.0

M Jarvis

3

21

14.3

-£9.17

-43.7

P Cole

7

50

14.0

-£13.04

-26.1

P Winkworth

3

23

13.0

+£24.00

+104.4

K Ryan

14

112

12.5

-£12.27

-11.0

D Nicholls

4

32

12.5

+£35.00

+109.4

A Balding

3

26

11.5

-£17.25

-66.4

J Gosden

4

36

11.1

-£13.75

-38.2

B Meehan

8

78

10.3

-£35.81

-45.9

P Haslam

4

40

10.0

-£9.75

-24.4

P Blockley

2

23

8.7

-£10.75

-46.7

W Muir

2

23

8.7

+£4.00

+17.4

E McMahon

2

28

7.1

-£12.13

-43.3

P Evans

4

58

6.9

-£1.75

-3.0

M Easterby

3

52

5.8

+£0.00

+0.0

T Easterby

7

125

5.6

-£96.58

-77.3

P Midgley

2

37

5.4

+£43.00

+116.2

W Turner

2

38

5.3

+£14.53

+38.2

R Beckett

2

40

5.0

-£20.50

-51.3

I Wood

1

21

4.8

-£15.00

-71.4

J R Best

1

21

4.8

-£17.50

-83.3

J Jenkins

1

23

4.4

-£8.00

-34.8

C Brittain

1

26

3.9

-£20.50

-78.9

Mrs A Duffield

1

27

3.7

-£23.50

-87.0

B Millman

1

31

3.2

-£25.00

-80.7

J Moore

1

32

3.1

-£6.00

-18.8

M Brittain

1

35

2.9

-£31.50

-90.0

A Berry

0

53

0.0

-£53.00

-100.0

S Kirk

0

38

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

N Tinkler

0

34

0.0

-£34.00

-100.0

J  Hills

0

32

0.0

-£32.00

-100.0

Mrs P Dutfield

0

24

0.0

-£24.00

-100.0

J Weymes

0

23

0.0

-£23.00

-100.0

J Bradley

0

22

0.0

-£22.00

-100.0

A Mccabe

0

21

0.0

-£21.00

-100.0

 

This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition 2yo maiden facts:

 

-         Bryan Smart is 5 wins from 7 (+ 2 placed) at Musselburgh;

-         Richard Hannon has performed particularly well with Irish bred runners – 28 winners from 121 runners (SR 23.1%) for a profit of £41.13 (ROI +34.0%);

-         Mick Channon has made a profit in all 6 Mays with runners that had previously run;

-         Mark Johnston has a poor record with favourites, but combining second and third favourites has produced 11 winners from 42 (SR 26.2%) for a profit of £19.08 (ROI +45.4%);

-         Kevin Ryan has a 15% strike rate with his debutants in May compared with only 9.6% with horses that have previously run;

-         Tim Easterby has scored with just 1 debutant (he has 66 maidens making their debut).

 

Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of May.

 

 








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