Market Bias in 5f Handicaps by David Renham

Market Bias is a phrase used to describe situations in horse racing where market odds position appears to have a significant effect.

Say for example you checked out the last fifteen years running of a major race and found that the top three in the betting had won 95% of all past races.

You may conclude that there was strong positive market bias towards the top three in the betting.

In this article I am looking to see whether market forces are the same at different course and distances.

The focus is 5f turf handicaps (excluding 2yo nurseries) and I have concentrated on races with 7 or more runners. I have decided to split the betting market into thirds – as I do when I analyse draw bias.

The research indicates some huge differences between courses in terms of how the top third in the betting fare.

You should really know this stuff before you make another bet.