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March Trainers 2013


 

National Hunt Trainers in March by David Renham

 

Each month at Punter Profits I look at the performance of trainers in specific months of the year. I am looking at National Hunt trainers in March with the data taken over a 6 years from 2007 to 2012. Firstly let us look at all trainers that have had at least 50 runners over the period of study.

 

Trainers

Runs

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Arbuthnot, D W P

56

14

25.0

£8.43

15.1

Ellison, B

64

15

23.4

£11.33

17.7

Swinbank, G A

107

22

20.6

-£35.30

-33.0

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

51

10

19.6

-£20.42

-40.0

Sayer, Mrs Dianne

63

12

19.0

£28.50

45.2

Grant, C

122

23

18.9

£15.54

12.7

Nicholls, P F

473

87

18.4

-£101.34

-21.4

Newland, Dr R D P

71

13

18.3

-£7.59

-10.7

George, T R

179

32

17.9

£31.04

17.3

Goldie, J S

90

16

17.8

£24.94

27.7

Honeyball, A J

51

9

17.6

£5.75

11.3

Quinn, J J

68

12

17.6

£23.52

34.6

Best, Jim

91

16

17.6

-£12.46

-13.7

Dartnall, V R A

145

25

17.2

-£21.16

-14.6

Cornwall, J R

64

11

17.2

£23.25

36.3

Smith, Miss Suzy

64

11

17.2

£12.00

18.8

Monteith, P

88

15

17.0

£3.64

4.1

Hobbs, P J

487

83

17.0

-£80.51

-16.5

Henderson, N J

547

93

17.0

-£32.51

-5.9

McCain Jnr, D

434

73

16.8

-£34.41

-7.9

Turnell, Andrew

119

20

16.8

-£7.79

-6.5

Greatrex, W J

54

9

16.7

£10.50

19.4

Smith, Mrs S J

327

54

16.5

£204.32

62.5

Scott, J

67

11

16.4

-£6.17

-9.2

Ewart, J P L

110

18

16.4

-£25.53

-23.2

Mann, C J

179

29

16.2

-£6.66

-3.7

Bailey, Mrs Caroline

82

13

15.9

-£17.00

-20.7

King, A

543

85

15.7

-£187.72

-34.6

Williams, Evan

347

51

14.7

-£72.34

-20.8

Sherwood, O

152

22

14.5

-£2.41

-1.6

Williams, Miss V

409

59

14.4

-£131.14

-32.1

Russell, Miss Lucinda

252

36

14.3

-£33.94

-13.5

Longsdon, C E

191

27

14.1

£31.40

16.4

Murphy, Ferdy

315

44

14.0

-£31.02

-9.8

Lavelle, Miss E C

133

18

13.5

-£36.32

-27.3

Moore, G M

92

12

13.0

-£26.90

-29.2

Vaughan, Tim

207

27

13.0

-£100.57

-48.6

Richards, N G

169

22

13.0

-£58.54

-34.6

Tizzard, C L

197

25

12.7

£28.90

14.7

Wadham, Mrs L

105

13

12.4

-£13.94

-13.3

O'Neill, Jonjo

404

50

12.4

-£36.96

-9.1

Frost, J D

89

11

12.4

-£25.02

-28.1

Daly, H D

228

28

12.3

-£41.16

-18.1

Thorpe, Mrs A M

114

14

12.3

-£52.03

-45.6

Carroll, A W

147

18

12.2

£68.13

46.3

Keighley, M

98

12

12.2

-£24.25

-24.7

Candlish, Jennie

82

10

12.2

-£18.19

-22.2

Sheppard, M

58

7

12.1

-£13.25

-22.8

Williams, Nick

83

10

12.0

-£0.50

-0.6

Pipe, D E

500

60

12.0

-£77.44

-15.5

Whillans, D W

69

8

11.6

£3.00

4.3

McPherson, Graeme

52

6

11.5

-£20.42

-39.3

Hogarth, H P

61

7

11.5

-£7.25

-11.9

Whillans, A C

96

11

11.5

-£1.25

-1.3

Reveley, K G

212

24

11.3

-£105.92

-50.0

Goldsworthy, W K

71

8

11.3

£20.25

28.5

Wade, J

80

9

11.3

-£42.84

-53.6

Mullins, W P

135

15

11.1

£4.90

3.6

Old, J A B

99

11

11.1

-£17.50

-17.7

Nixon, R

55

6

10.9

-£3.87

-7.0

Crook, A

56

6

10.7

£7.00

12.5

Jefferson, J M

162

17

10.5

-£17.70

-10.9

Lee, R

97

10

10.3

-£56.74

-58.5

Moore, G L

333

34

10.2

-£85.07

-25.5

King, N B

139

14

10.1

£1.95

1.4

Newton-Smith, Miss A

50

5

10.0

-£21.75

-43.5

Gifford, N J

121

12

9.9

-£50.94

-42.1

Mulholland, N P

91

9

9.9

-£50.95

-56.0

Mackie, J

62

6

9.7

£2.38

3.8

Forster, Miss S E

73

7

9.6

-£13.75

-18.8

Twiston-Davies, N A

430

41

9.5

-£109.79

-25.5

Sly, Mrs P

63

6

9.5

-£0.26

-0.4

Charlton, G A

106

10

9.4

£15.88

15.0

Bailey, K C

128

12

9.4

-£63.89

-49.9

Chance, Noel T

64

6

9.4

-£29.36

-45.9

Rowe, R

86

8

9.3

-£13.47

-15.7

Bowen, P

219

20

9.1

-£97.85

-44.7

Bradburne, Mrs S C

66

6

9.1

-£28.00

-42.4

Corcoran, L

55

5

9.1

£7.00

12.7

Llewellyn, B J

66

6

9.1

-£19.50

-29.5

Walford, T D

56

5

8.9

-£9.50

-17.0

Williams, Ian

157

14

8.9

-£67.60

-43.1

Hammond, Micky

102

9

8.8

-£43.99

-43.1

Gordon, C

91

8

8.8

-£16.84

-18.5

Lungo, L

57

5

8.8

-£36.61

-64.2

Gollings, S

58

5

8.6

-£34.31

-59.2

Hales, A M

70

6

8.6

£19.50

27.9

Harris, M F

130

11

8.5

-£41.94

-32.3

Bealby, C C

71

6

8.5

£128.38

180.8

Powell, B G

202

17

8.4

-£78.12

-38.7

Dickin, R

126

10

7.9

-£20.79

-16.5

Down, C J

116

9

7.8

-£46.75

-40.3

Davison, Miss Z C

52

4

7.7

-£6.00

-11.5

Moffatt, James

79

6

7.6

£18.50

23.4

Spearing, J L

53

4

7.5

-£25.20

-47.5

Buckler, R H

121

9

7.4

-£61.75

-51.0

Guest, R C

81

6

7.4

-£42.00

-51.9

Walton, Mrs K

68

5

7.4

-£34.00

-50.0

Snowden, Jamie

55

4

7.3

-£41.40

-75.3

Todhunter, M

110

8

7.3

-£42.37

-38.5

Kirby, P A

63

4

6.3

-£50.18

-79.7

Hodges, R J

96

6

6.3

-£59.00

-61.5

Dobbin, Mrs R

50

3

6.0

-£35.75

-71.5

Easterby, T D

68

4

5.9

-£50.33

-74.0

Hawke, N J

87

5

5.7

-£55.92

-64.3

Webber, P R

141

8

5.7

-£77.50

-55.0

Barnes, M A

92

5

5.4

-£34.67

-37.7

Dyson, Miss C

74

4

5.4

-£14.67

-19.8

Easterby, M W

111

6

5.4

-£53.18

-47.9

Keevil, Mrs Caroline

56

3

5.4

-£49.07

-87.6

Scudamore, M J

124

6

4.8

-£79.00

-63.7

Normile, Mrs L B

66

3

4.5

-£40.50

-61.4

Mullins, J W

160

7

4.4

-£88.00

-55.0

Evans, P D

52

2

3.8

-£44.00

-84.6

Phillips, R T

131

5

3.8

-£100.75

-76.9

Alexander, N W

54

2

3.7

-£44.62

-82.6

Amos, W

85

3

3.5

-£67.29

-79.2

Coltherd, W S

58

2

3.4

-£43.50

-75.0

Egerton, C R

63

2

3.2

-£55.00

-87.3

Chapman, M C

77

2

2.6

-£56.50

-73.4

Johnson, R

98

2

2.0

-£78.50

-80.1

Geake, J A

58

1

1.7

-£47.00

-81.0

Case, B I

65

1

1.5

-£56.50

-86.9

Siddall, Miss L C

56

0

0.0

-£56.00

-100.0

 

The general figures are not as high for the top trainers in March purely down to the Cheltenham festival. Several of the top trainers run a good number of runners over the four days of the festival and with the competitiveness of the racing it is impossible to maintain their usual strike rate. In fact let us look at trainer performance at the Cheltenham festival over the past six seasons:

 

Trainers

Runs

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

O'Neill, Jonjo

86

10

11.6

£35.88

41.7

Mullins, W P

135

15

11.1

£4.90

3.6

McCain Jnr, D

58

6

10.3

£17.50

30.2

Murphy, Ferdy

50

5

10.0

£56.00

112.0

Nicholls, P F

192

19

9.9

-£73.62

-38.3

Elliott, Gordon

25

2

8.0

-£2.00

-8.0

Henderson, N J

193

15

7.8

-£16.39

-8.5

Harrington, Mrs John

27

2

7.4

-£3.50

-13.0

Tizzard, C L

27

2

7.4

£55.00

203.7

King, A

117

8

6.8

-£55.00

-47.0

Twiston-Davies, N A

99

6

6.1

-£30.50

-30.8

Hobbs, P J

100

6

6.0

-£24.50

-24.5

Pipe, D E

158

8

5.1

-£72.67

-46.0

Williams, Miss V

69

3

4.3

-£5.00

-7.2

Williams, Evan

31

1

3.2

-£16.00

-51.6

Meade, Noel

47

1

2.1

-£34.00

-72.3

Hughes, D T

27

0

0.0

-£27.00

-100.0

Moore, G L

25

0

0.0

-£25.00

-100.0

O'Grady, E J

30

0

0.0

-£30.00

-100.0

Williams, Nick

25

0

0.0

-£25.00

-100.0

 

As we can see even the powerhouse stables of Nicholls and Henderson struggle to maintain a decent strike rate.

 

Let me next break the whole month data into chase results only (30 runs to qualify):

 

Trainers

Runs

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Arbuthnot, D W P

56

14

25.0

£8.43

15.1

Bailey, Mrs Caroline

46

11

23.9

£7.25

15.8

George, T R

93

21

22.6

£32.83

35.3

Wade, J

41

9

22.0

-£3.84

-9.4

Russell, Miss Lucinda

106

23

21.7

£13.42

12.7

Cornwall, J R

51

11

21.6

£36.25

71.1

Ewart, J P L

48

10

20.8

-£8.63

-18.0

Grant, C

40

8

20.0

£1.75

4.4

Hobbs, P J

170

33

19.4

-£6.64

-3.9

Sherwood, O

47

9

19.1

£8.08

17.2

Bailey, K C

37

7

18.9

-£15.89

-42.9

Old, J A B

37

7

18.9

£7.75

20.9

O'Neill, Jonjo

165

31

18.8

£79.98

48.5

Mann, C J

75

14

18.7

£13.49

18.0

Newland, Dr R D P

43

8

18.6

-£3.92

-9.1

Turnell, Andrew

60

11

18.3

£2.71

4.5

Smith, Mrs S J

176

32

18.2

£160.08

91.0

King, A

144

26

18.1

-£28.72

-19.9

Vaughan, Tim

62

11

17.7

-£26.90

-43.4

Richards, N G

40

7

17.5

-£11.22

-28.1

Dartnall, V R A

52

9

17.3

-£17.97

-34.6

Lavelle, Miss E C

41

7

17.1

-£4.25

-10.4

Monteith, P

53

9

17.0

£11.19

21.1

Nicholls, P F

225

36

16.0

-£103.60

-46.0

Flook, S

44

7

15.9

£7.35

16.7

Williams, Miss V

189

30

15.9

-£25.09

-13.3

Bradburne, Mrs S C

32

5

15.6

-£2.50

-7.8

Mulholland, N P

39

6

15.4

-£17.95

-46.0

Williams, Evan

119

17

14.3

-£34.32

-28.8

Gifford, N J

49

7

14.3

-£17.57

-35.9

King, N B

42

6

14.3

-£4.55

-10.8

Longsdon, C E

72

10

13.9

-£29.57

-41.1

Forster, Miss S E

36

5

13.9

£11.25

31.3

Murphy, Ferdy

166

23

13.9

£20.41

12.3

Bowen, P

74

10

13.5

-£27.01

-36.5

Tizzard, C L

97

13

13.4

£9.48

9.8

Reveley, K G

75

10

13.3

-£29.33

-39.1

Powell, B G

62

8

12.9

£0.50

0.8

Daly, H D

101

13

12.9

-£40.49

-40.1

McCain Jnr, D

117

15

12.8

-£44.61

-38.1

Harris, M F

39

5

12.8

-£7.94

-20.4

Williams, Nick

39

5

12.8

-£18.00

-46.2

Hammond, Micky

32

4

12.5

£4.00

12.5

Guest, R C

34

4

11.8

-£12.50

-36.8

Pipe, D E

163

19

11.7

£5.16

3.2

Dickin, R

43

5

11.6

£3.88

9.0

Twiston-Davies, N A

205

23

11.2

-£40.97

-20.0

Mullins, J W

48

5

10.4

-£10.00

-20.8

Williams, Ian

48

5

10.4

-£26.17

-54.5

Henderson, N J

140

14

10.0

-£60.27

-43.1

Lee, R

70

7

10.0

-£44.99

-64.3

Rowe, R

40

4

10.0

-£0.47

-1.2

Scudamore, M J

61

6

9.8

-£16.00

-26.2

Moore, G L

98

9

9.2

-£42.16

-43.0

Gordon, C

36

3

8.3

-£21.17

-58.8

Hawke, N J

36

3

8.3

-£18.92

-52.6

Todhunter, M

49

4

8.2

-£22.37

-45.7

Buckler, R H

66

5

7.6

-£36.25

-54.9

Coltherd, W S

33

2

6.1

-£18.50

-56.1

Phillips, R T

36

2

5.6

-£25.25

-70.1

Carroll, A W

38

2

5.3

-£29.62

-77.9

Mullins, W P

38

2

5.3

-£30.75

-80.9

Jefferson, J M

45

2

4.4

-£23.12

-51.4

Charlton, G A

31

1

3.2

-£25.50

-82.3

Webber, P R

31

1

3.2

-£27.25

-87.9

Johnson, R

48

1

2.1

-£40.50

-84.4

 

Very interesting to see the poor performance of the Henderson stable - a strike rate of only 10% is very low for a stable that hits much bigger numbers normally.

 

Now a look at hurdles only (40 runs minimum):

 

Trainers

Runs

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Sayer, Mrs Dianne

44

10

22.7

£40.00

90.9

Grant, C

72

15

20.8

£23.79

33.0

Nicholls, P F

211

43

20.4

£6.23

3.0

Burchell, D

40

8

20.0

£42.33

105.8

Ellison, B

51

10

19.6

-£5.67

-11.1

Best, Jim

78

15

19.2

-£10.46

-13.4

Henderson, N J

333

63

18.9

£54.91

16.5

Swinbank, G A

44

8

18.2

-£15.67

-35.6

McCain Jnr, D

277

49

17.7

£0.44

0.2

Quinn, J J

46

8

17.4

£10.02

21.8

Wadham, Mrs L

72

12

16.7

£6.06

8.4

Scott, J

42

7

16.7

-£5.00

-11.9

Hobbs, P J

281

45

16.0

-£60.48

-21.5

Turnell, Andrew

50

8

16.0

-£8.50

-17.0

Dartnall, V R A

69

11

15.9

-£1.92

-2.8

Carroll, A W

101

16

15.8

£105.75

104.7

Williams, Evan

205

32

15.6

-£18.52

-9.0

Goldie, J S

59

9

15.3

£12.56

21.3

Mullins, W P

75

11

14.7

£27.65

36.9

Mann, C J

96

14

14.6

-£15.65

-16.3

Murphy, Ferdy

132

19

14.4

-£44.43

-33.7

Daly, H D

91

13

14.3

-£7.67

-8.4

Whillans, D W

56

8

14.3

£16.00

28.6

Smith, Mrs S J

127

18

14.2

£40.94

32.2

Sherwood, O

78

11

14.1

£10.63

13.6

Williams, Miss V

203

28

13.8

-£92.80

-45.7

Tizzard, C L

73

10

13.7

-£9.58

-13.1

Charlton, G A

59

8

13.6

£6.38

10.8

Lavelle, Miss E C

76

10

13.2

-£20.07

-26.4

King, A

317

40

12.6

-£158.68

-50.1

Pipe, D E

319

40

12.5

-£67.60

-21.2

Frost, J D

64

8

12.5

-£23.02

-36.0

Longsdon, C E

90

11

12.2

£30.87

34.3

Keighley, M

58

7

12.1

-£13.00

-22.4

Moore, G M

58

7

12.1

-£24.90

-42.9

Goldsworthy, W K

42

5

11.9

£39.75

94.6

Gollings, S

42

5

11.9

-£18.31

-43.6

George, T R

79

9

11.4

-£9.04

-11.4

Mackie, J

44

5

11.4

£14.88

33.8

Moore, G L

224

25

11.2

-£31.91

-14.2

Reveley, K G

99

11

11.1

-£52.59

-53.1

Ewart, J P L

45

5

11.1

-£11.09

-24.6

Richards, N G

114

12

10.5

-£45.57

-40.0

Whillans, A C

57

6

10.5

-£9.50

-16.7

Thorpe, Mrs A M

96

10

10.4

-£46.91

-48.9

Vaughan, Tim

119

12

10.1

-£71.92

-60.4

Jefferson, J M

90

9

10.0

£1.50

1.7

Candlish, Jennie

52

5

9.6

-£24.32

-46.8

Corcoran, L

42

4

9.5

£14.50

34.5

Chance, Noel T

44

4

9.1

-£17.19

-39.1

Twiston-Davies, N A

193

17

8.8

-£41.15

-21.3

Sly, Mrs P

46

4

8.7

£6.24

13.6

Llewellyn, B J

58

5

8.6

-£17.50

-30.2

Williams, Ian

94

8

8.5

-£43.43

-46.2

Hales, A M

50

4

8.0

£28.50

57.0

Buckler, R H

40

3

7.5

-£15.50

-38.8

O'Neill, Jonjo

218

16

7.3

-£134.44

-61.7

Down, C J

82

6

7.3

-£28.50

-34.8

Dyson, Miss C

41

3

7.3

-£0.67

-1.6

Harris, M F

83

6

7.2

-£26.00

-31.3

Russell, Miss Lucinda

126

9

7.1

-£56.11

-44.5

King, N B

84

6

7.1

-£34.75

-41.4

Todhunter, M

56

4

7.1

-£15.00

-26.8

Powell, B G

113

8

7.1

-£85.62

-75.8

Dickin, R

74

5

6.8

-£15.67

-21.2

Webber, P R

75

5

6.7

-£30.25

-40.3

Gordon, C

46

3

6.5

-£20.00

-43.5

Easterby, M W

78

5

6.4

-£23.93

-30.7

Mulholland, N P

47

3

6.4

-£28.00

-59.6

Hodges, R J

63

4

6.3

-£33.25

-52.8

Bowen, P

120

7

5.8

-£78.34

-65.3

Old, J A B

57

3

5.3

-£23.00

-40.4

Gifford, N J

60

3

5.0

-£28.50

-47.5

Hammond, Micky

61

3

4.9

-£50.99

-83.6

Moffatt, James

62

3

4.8

-£19.25

-31.0

Hawke, N J

44

2

4.5

-£30.00

-68.2

Barnes, M A

67

3

4.5

-£26.00

-38.8

Amos, W

45

2

4.4

-£29.12

-64.7

Guest, R C

46

2

4.3

-£28.50

-62.0

Bailey, K C

77

3

3.9

-£47.00

-61.0

Phillips, R T

86

3

3.5

-£66.50

-77.3

Egerton, C R

40

1

2.5

-£33.50

-83.8

Walton, Mrs K

44

1

2.3

-£41.50

-94.3

Chapman, M C

45

1

2.2

-£30.00

-66.7

Mullins, J W

91

2

2.2

-£57.00

-62.6

Johnson, R

46

1

2.2

-£34.00

-73.9

Scudamore, M J

54

0

0.0

-£54.00

-100.0

Siddall, Miss L C

43

0

0.0

-£43.00

-100.0

 

Better results for the top two stables of Nicholls and Henderson - better strike rates in hurdle races and both have made a blind profit - although only just for Nicholls. However it gives us some scope to see if there are any angles worth following for both of them. Firstly a look at Nicholls in more detail:

 

First thing to say is that 'price' has been key for Nicholls in hurdle races in March - when his horses have been priced 14/1 or bigger, he has had just 1 winner and 4 places from 53 runners. So it is clearly best to focus on the more fancied runners. Having said that favourites have been overbet and made a small loss of 7p in the £. He has had 8 winners from 23 in maiden hurdles for an impressive return of 99p in the £; also his non handicappers have comfortably outperformed his handicappers. His record in non handicaps reads 34 wins from 123 (SR 27.6%) for a profit of £33.10 (ROI +26.9%). He also has performed best in lower class hurdle races (4 or 5) as his returns have produced a profit of 30p in £.

 

Henderson's record looks better but it has been skewed slightly by some bigger priced winners at 40/1, 25-1 and 22-1. Indeed you would have been far better off backing his runners over 8/1 than you would have been backing them when 8/1 or shorter. Having said that, his 4yo runners have performed extremely well in terms of strike rate thanks to 12 wins from 37 (SR 32.4%) for a profit of £42.03 (ROI +113.6%).

 

All in all March is a tough month for trainers and profitable avenues look few and far between.

 








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