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March Trainers 2012




March Trainers 2012 by David Renham

 

 

This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of March with data taken from 2006 to 2011. March is the month where the biggest National Hunt meeting occurs – the Cheltenham Festival. Many of the top trainers therefore will be looking to peak in this month so the stats will hopefully be extremely enlightening.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

 

All races (Mar 06-11) – 60 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Alan Swinbank

21

99

21.2

-£29.15

-29.4

Jim Best

16

76

21.1

+£2.54

+3.3

Jim Goldie

15

81

18.5

+£23.93

+29.6

Paul Nicholls

86

467

18.4

-£86.01

-18.4

Chris Grant

18

100

18.0

+£17.03

+17.0

Victor Dartnall

23

133

17.3

-£27.93

-21.0

Nicky Henderson

88

515

17.1

-£36.22

-7.0

Charlie Mann

29

170

17.1

-£14.68

-8.6

Philip Hobbs

83

488

17.0

-£94.30

-19.3

Andy Turnell

19

112

17.0

-£5.29

-4.7

John Quinn

11

66

16.7

-£7.89

-12.0

John Cornwall

10

62

16.1

+£44.50

+71.8

Sue Smith

47

300

15.7

+£157.68

+52.6

Alan King

80

513

15.6

-£172.79

-33.7

James Ewart

14

90

15.6

-£20.29

-22.5

Donald McCain

52

342

15.2

-£41.98

-12.3

 

 

Only 5 trainers have managed to secure a profit in this month and in general strike rates for the best performing trainers are down in this month. Sue Smith’s record looks good on the face of it, but it has been down to 3 very good years as the table below shows:

 

 

Year

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

2006

5

28

17.9

-£11.38

-40.6

2007

3

41

7.3

-£21.00

-51.2

2008

13

62

21.0

+£118.35

+190.9

2009

14

63

22.2

+£44.20

+70.2

2010

4

56

7.1

-£36.00

-64.3

2011

8

50

16.0

+£63.50

+127.0

 

 

The problem for punters is that she has had three poor years mixed in – the long term picture looks promising, but it is difficult to be totally confident about her 2012 chances.

 

Chris Grant has made a profit in each of the last four years, albeit from a relatively small band of runners. He has good record with fancied runners – combining favourites and second favourites would have produced 10 winners and 7 placed horses from 23 for a profit of £14.04 (ROI +61%). One group of runners though worth avoiding are his runners in novice events as they have won just 4 races from 34 for a loss of £13.17 (ROI -38.7%).

 

As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

 

All races (Mar 06-11) – 60 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Micky Hammond

4

67

6.0

-£32.38

-48.3

Kim Bailey

7

118

5.9

-£71.38

-60.5

Ron Hodges

6

102

5.9

-£71.25

-69.9

Chris Down

7

120

5.8

-£64.75

-54.0

Seamus Mullins

9

156

5.8

-£65.00

-41.7

Nigel Hawke

5

93

5.4

-£62.25

-66.9

Maurice Barnes

4

79

5.1

-£33.67

-42.6

Charles Egerton

3

67

4.5

-£22.30

-33.3

Paul Webber

6

136

4.4

-£37.75

-27.8

Michael Scudamore

6

138

4.4

-£86.50

-62.7

Lucy Normile

3

70

4.3

-£51.50

-73.6

Richard Phillips

6

155

3.9

-£128.38

-82.8

William Amos

2

66

3.0

-£50.13

-76.0

Michael Chapman

2

68

2.9

-£47.50

-69.9

Jonathan Geake

1

72

1.4

-£61.00

-84.7

Robert Johnson

1

91

1.1

-£83.50

-91.8

 

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding all of these trainers this month, with perhaps the exception of Kim Bailey. Bailey’s stable has been in better form of late which is something to take into consideration.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. This is especially so with this month’s data, as it is hard to find decent positive angles from the main data. Hence, let us look at chase races only in March since 2006:

 

 

All chases (Mar 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

John Wade

8

31

25.8

+£5.33

+17.2

Charlie Mann

15

63

23.8

+£10.47

+16.6

Sandy Forster

8

35

22.9

+£28.75

+82.1

James Ewart

8

39

20.5

-£7.13

-18.3

Oliver Sherwood

11

54

20.4

+£23.08

+42.7

Alan King

26

129

20.2

-£14.11

-10.9

John Cornwall

10

50

20.0

+£56.50

+113.0

Victor Dartnall

9

45

20.0

-£10.98

-24.4

Caroline Bailey

8

41

19.5

-£1.50

-3.7

Jim Old

8

41

19.5

+£5.19

+12.7

Dr Richard Newland

7

37

18.9

-£4.42

-12.0

Sue Smith

29

156

18.6

+£130.96

+84.0

Emma Lavelle

9

49

18.4

+£0.25

+0.5

Charlie Longsdon

10

55

18.2

-£12.57

-22.9

 

 

Charlie Mann has done well in novice chases (from a limited data set) saddling 6 winners from just 14 runners for a profit of £12.87 (ROI +91.9%).

 

Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:

 

 

 

All chases (Mar 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Bob Buckler

5

72

6.9

-£42.25

-58.7

Matt Sheppard

2

31

6.5

-£17.75

-57.3

Nigel Hawke

2

40

5.0

-£27.25

-68.1

Malcolm Jefferson

2

44

4.6

-£22.13

-50.3

Paul Webber

1

33

3.0

-£29.25

-88.6

W P Mullins

1

33

3.0

-£29.75

-90.2

Robert Johnson

1

48

2.1

-£40.50

-84.4

Tony Carroll

0

36

0.0

-£36.00

-100.0

Jonathan Geake

0

34

0.0

-£34.00

-100.0

 

 

Every trainer in the list has incurred losses of over 50% - not great reading.

 

Moving onto hurdle races now:

 

 

 

All hurdle races (Mar 06-11) – 35 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Jim Best

15

66

22.7

+£1.54

+2.3

Alan Swinbank

8

38

21.1

-£9.67

-25.5

Chris Grant

14

68

20.6

+£24.79

+36.5

Paul Nicholls

41

204

20.1

-£0.81

-0.4

Lucy Wadham

13

70

18.6

+£4.31

+6.2

Nicky Henderson

57

310

18.4

+£10.37

+3.3

Philip Hobbs

48

273

17.6

-£36.72

-13.5

Tony Carroll

15

87

17.2

+£114.38

+131.5

Andy Turnell

8

47

17.0

-£5.50

-11.7

W P Mullins

10

60

16.7

+£41.08

+68.5

Dai Burchell

7

43

16.3

+£40.83

+95.0

 

 

Lucy Wadham should be noted when saddling the favourite or the second favourite in a hurdle race – her record reads an impressive 9 winners from 15 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £18.31 (ROI +122.1%). Chris Grant has a good record in handicap hurdles thanks to 10 winners from 37 (SR 27%) for a profit of £41.63 (ROI +112.5%). Champion trainer Paul Nicholls does well when teaming up with jockey Ruby Walsh – they have combined to produce 22 wins from 81 (SR 27.2%) for a profit of £24.34 (ROI +30%).

 

 

Finally let us look at those trainers who have poor hurdle records in this month:

 

 

All hurdle races (Mar 06-11) – 35 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Anna Newton-Smith

2

35

5.7

-£16.75

-47.9

Noel Meade

2

36

5.6

-£13.50

-37.5

Martin Todhunter

3

55

5.5

-£22.00

-40.0

Brendan Powell

6

111

5.4

-£82.45

-74.3

Neil Mulholland

2

37

5.4

-£27.00

-73.0

Lucinda Russell

6

112

5.4

-£61.38

-54.8

Maurice Barnes

3

57

5.3

-£16.00

-28.1

Sandy Forster

2

38

5.3

-£24.00

-63.2

William Amos

2

38

5.3

-£22.13

-58.2

Kate Walton

2

39

5.1

-£33.88

-86.9

Chris Gordon

2

41

4.9

-£20.00

-48.8

Chris Down

4

83

4.8

-£43.50

-52.4

Ron Hodges

3

65

4.6

-£45.25

-69.6

Seamus Mullins

4

87

4.6

-£27.00

-31.0

Paul Webber

3

67

4.5

-£33.00

-49.3

Bob Buckler

2

45

4.4

-£26.00

-57.8

Kim Bailey

3

69

4.4

-£39.00

-56.5

James Moffatt

2

56

3.6

-£16.00

-28.6

Richard Phillips

3

99

3.0

-£85.50

-86.4

Andrew Crook

1

36

2.8

-£31.00

-86.1

Lucy Normile

1

36

2.8

-£32.00

-88.9

Richard Guest

1

37

2.7

-£32.50

-87.8

Charles Egerton

1

40

2.5

+£1.00

+2.5

Micky Hammond

1

40

2.5

-£37.38

-93.4

Michael Chapman

1

42

2.4

-£27.00

-64.3

Michael Scudamore

0

63

0.0

-£63.00

-100.0

Robert Johnson

0

40

0.0

-£40.00

-100.0

Lynn Siddall

0

35

0.0

-£35.00

-100.0

 

 

Once again it looks worth avoiding the majority of these trainers during March.

 

March offers some interesting trainer stats, but with some very competitive racing finding strong profitable angles is not particularly easy.

 








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