This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of March with data taken from 2006 to 2011. March is the month where the biggest National Hunt meeting occurs – the Cheltenham Festival. Many of the top trainers therefore will be looking to peak in this month so the stats will hopefully be extremely enlightening.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Mar 06-11) – 60 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Alan Swinbank
21
99
21.2
-£29.15
-29.4
Jim Best
16
76
21.1
+£2.54
+3.3
Jim Goldie
15
81
18.5
+£23.93
+29.6
Paul Nicholls
86
467
18.4
-£86.01
-18.4
Chris Grant
18
100
18.0
+£17.03
+17.0
Victor Dartnall
23
133
17.3
-£27.93
-21.0
Nicky Henderson
88
515
17.1
-£36.22
-7.0
Charlie Mann
29
170
17.1
-£14.68
-8.6
Philip Hobbs
83
488
17.0
-£94.30
-19.3
Andy Turnell
19
112
17.0
-£5.29
-4.7
John Quinn
11
66
16.7
-£7.89
-12.0
John Cornwall
10
62
16.1
+£44.50
+71.8
Sue Smith
47
300
15.7
+£157.68
+52.6
Alan King
80
513
15.6
-£172.79
-33.7
James Ewart
14
90
15.6
-£20.29
-22.5
Donald McCain
52
342
15.2
-£41.98
-12.3
Only 5 trainers have managed to secure a profit in this month and in general strike rates for the best performing trainers are down in this month. Sue Smith’s record looks good on the face of it, but it has been down to 3 very good years as the table below shows:
Year
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
2006
5
28
17.9
-£11.38
-40.6
2007
3
41
7.3
-£21.00
-51.2
2008
13
62
21.0
+£118.35
+190.9
2009
14
63
22.2
+£44.20
+70.2
2010
4
56
7.1
-£36.00
-64.3
2011
8
50
16.0
+£63.50
+127.0
The problem for punters is that she has had three poor years mixed in – the long term picture looks promising, but it is difficult to be totally confident about her 2012 chances.
Chris Grant has made a profit in each of the last four years, albeit from a relatively small band of runners. He has good record with fancied runners – combining favourites and second favourites would have produced 10 winners and 7 placed horses from 23 for a profit of £14.04 (ROI +61%). One group of runners though worth avoiding are his runners in novice events as they have won just 4 races from 34 for a loss of £13.17 (ROI -38.7%).
As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Mar 06-11) – 60 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Micky Hammond
4
67
6.0
-£32.38
-48.3
Kim Bailey
7
118
5.9
-£71.38
-60.5
Ron Hodges
6
102
5.9
-£71.25
-69.9
Chris Down
7
120
5.8
-£64.75
-54.0
Seamus Mullins
9
156
5.8
-£65.00
-41.7
Nigel Hawke
5
93
5.4
-£62.25
-66.9
Maurice Barnes
4
79
5.1
-£33.67
-42.6
Charles Egerton
3
67
4.5
-£22.30
-33.3
Paul Webber
6
136
4.4
-£37.75
-27.8
Michael Scudamore
6
138
4.4
-£86.50
-62.7
Lucy Normile
3
70
4.3
-£51.50
-73.6
Richard Phillips
6
155
3.9
-£128.38
-82.8
William Amos
2
66
3.0
-£50.13
-76.0
Michael Chapman
2
68
2.9
-£47.50
-69.9
Jonathan Geake
1
72
1.4
-£61.00
-84.7
Robert Johnson
1
91
1.1
-£83.50
-91.8
As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding all of these trainers this month, with perhaps the exception of Kim Bailey. Bailey’s stable has been in better form of late which is something to take into consideration.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. This is especially so with this month’s data, as it is hard to find decent positive angles from the main data. Hence, let us look at chase races only in March since 2006:
All chases (Mar 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
John Wade
8
31
25.8
+£5.33
+17.2
Charlie Mann
15
63
23.8
+£10.47
+16.6
Sandy Forster
8
35
22.9
+£28.75
+82.1
James Ewart
8
39
20.5
-£7.13
-18.3
Oliver Sherwood
11
54
20.4
+£23.08
+42.7
Alan King
26
129
20.2
-£14.11
-10.9
John Cornwall
10
50
20.0
+£56.50
+113.0
Victor Dartnall
9
45
20.0
-£10.98
-24.4
Caroline Bailey
8
41
19.5
-£1.50
-3.7
Jim Old
8
41
19.5
+£5.19
+12.7
Dr Richard Newland
7
37
18.9
-£4.42
-12.0
Sue Smith
29
156
18.6
+£130.96
+84.0
Emma Lavelle
9
49
18.4
+£0.25
+0.5
Charlie Longsdon
10
55
18.2
-£12.57
-22.9
Charlie Mann has done well in novice chases (from a limited data set) saddling 6 winners from just 14 runners for a profit of £12.87 (ROI +91.9%).
Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:
All chases (Mar 06-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Bob Buckler
5
72
6.9
-£42.25
-58.7
Matt Sheppard
2
31
6.5
-£17.75
-57.3
Nigel Hawke
2
40
5.0
-£27.25
-68.1
Malcolm Jefferson
2
44
4.6
-£22.13
-50.3
Paul Webber
1
33
3.0
-£29.25
-88.6
W P Mullins
1
33
3.0
-£29.75
-90.2
Robert Johnson
1
48
2.1
-£40.50
-84.4
Tony Carroll
0
36
0.0
-£36.00
-100.0
Jonathan Geake
0
34
0.0
-£34.00
-100.0
Every trainer in the list has incurred losses of over 50% - not great reading.
Lucy Wadham should be noted when saddling the favourite or the second favourite in a hurdle race – her record reads an impressive 9 winners from 15 (SR 66.7%) for a profit of £18.31 (ROI +122.1%). Chris Grant has a good record in handicap hurdles thanks to 10 winners from 37 (SR 27%) for a profit of £41.63 (ROI +112.5%). Champion trainer Paul Nicholls does well when teaming up with jockey Ruby Walsh – they have combined to produce 22 wins from 81 (SR 27.2%) for a profit of £24.34 (ROI +30%).
Finally let us look at those trainers who have poor hurdle records in this month:
All hurdle races (Mar 06-11) – 35 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)
Trainer
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate (%)
Profit
ROI (%)
Anna Newton-Smith
2
35
5.7
-£16.75
-47.9
Noel Meade
2
36
5.6
-£13.50
-37.5
Martin Todhunter
3
55
5.5
-£22.00
-40.0
Brendan Powell
6
111
5.4
-£82.45
-74.3
Neil Mulholland
2
37
5.4
-£27.00
-73.0
Lucinda Russell
6
112
5.4
-£61.38
-54.8
Maurice Barnes
3
57
5.3
-£16.00
-28.1
Sandy Forster
2
38
5.3
-£24.00
-63.2
William Amos
2
38
5.3
-£22.13
-58.2
Kate Walton
2
39
5.1
-£33.88
-86.9
Chris Gordon
2
41
4.9
-£20.00
-48.8
Chris Down
4
83
4.8
-£43.50
-52.4
Ron Hodges
3
65
4.6
-£45.25
-69.6
Seamus Mullins
4
87
4.6
-£27.00
-31.0
Paul Webber
3
67
4.5
-£33.00
-49.3
Bob Buckler
2
45
4.4
-£26.00
-57.8
Kim Bailey
3
69
4.4
-£39.00
-56.5
James Moffatt
2
56
3.6
-£16.00
-28.6
Richard Phillips
3
99
3.0
-£85.50
-86.4
Andrew Crook
1
36
2.8
-£31.00
-86.1
Lucy Normile
1
36
2.8
-£32.00
-88.9
Richard Guest
1
37
2.7
-£32.50
-87.8
Charles Egerton
1
40
2.5
+£1.00
+2.5
Micky Hammond
1
40
2.5
-£37.38
-93.4
Michael Chapman
1
42
2.4
-£27.00
-64.3
Michael Scudamore
0
63
0.0
-£63.00
-100.0
Robert Johnson
0
40
0.0
-£40.00
-100.0
Lynn Siddall
0
35
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
Once again it looks worth avoiding the majority of these trainers during March.
March offers some interesting trainer stats, but with some very competitive racing finding strong profitable angles is not particularly easy.
