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March Trainers - 2011


March Trainers by David Renham

This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of March with data taken from 2005 to 2010. March is the month where the biggest National Hunt meeting occurs – the Cheltenham Festival. Many of the top trainers therefore will be looking to peak in this month so the stats will hopefully be extremely enlightening.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (Mar 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
G A Swinbank 21 88 23.9 -£18.15 -20.6
Jim Best 15 66 22.7 +£9.29 +14.1
J P L Ewart 14 73 19.2 -£3.29 -4.5
P F Nicholls 91 488 18.7 -£80.05 -16.4
Dr R D P Newland 9 50 18.0 -£5.59 -11.2
J S Goldie 11 63 17.5 +£26.20 +41.6
C Grant 16 92 17.4 +£0.28 +0.3
P J Hobbs 85 490 17.4 -£111.05 -22.7
P Monteith 20 119 16.8 -£8.61 -7.2
Andrew Turnell 16 96 16.7 -£10.13 -10.6
N J Henderson 78 475 16.4 -£6.21 -1.3
Tim Vaughan 16 98 16.3 -£32.91 -33.6
Mrs S J Smith 48 297 16.2 +£89.81 +30.2
Nick Williams 10 62 16.1 +£27.50 +44.4
A King 73 455 16.0 -£130.99 -28.8

 

Only 5 trainers have managed to secure a profit in this month. Of those Jim Best has done well with fancied runners with his first and second favourites combining to produce 12 winners from 32.

Sue Smith’s record looks good on the face of it, but combining 2008 and 2009 she made profits of £162.55; combining the other 4 seasons she made losses of £72.74. Indeed last year she saddled just 4 winners from 56 (SR 5.6%) for a loss of £36.00 (ROI -64.3%).

As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Mar 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
R H Buckler 8 133 6.0 -£66.25 -49.8
C P Morlock 3 50 6.0 -£1.75 -3.5
M Sheppard 4 69 5.8 -£40.25 -58.3
F Jordan 3 54 5.6 -£33.50 -62.0
M A Barnes 4 74 5.4 -£29.00 -39.2
P Beaumont 4 75 5.3 +£43.75 +58.3
J A Geake 4 76 5.3 -£45.25 -59.5
C Gordon 3 61 4.9 -£37.00 -60.7
C R Egerton 3 67 4.5 -£22.30 -33.3
Mrs L B Normile 3 68 4.4 -£49.50 -72.8
R Johnson 4 92 4.4 -£59.00 -64.1
Mrs L C Jewell 2 52 3.9 -£39.00 -75.0
S T Lewis 2 52 3.9 -£32.50 -62.5
D McCain 2 53 3.8 -£34.00 -64.2
M Scudamore 6 160 3.8 -£108.50 -67.8
Noel Meade 2 60 3.3 -£37.50 -62.5
D J Wintle 2 63 3.2 -£46.75 -74.2
G A Harker 2 64 3.1 -£59.80 -93.4
M J Gingell 2 72 2.8 -£47.25 -65.6
W S Coltherd 1 53 1.9 -£49.25 -92.9
W Amos 1 55 1.8 -£42.00 -76.4
B N Pollock 1 62 1.6 -£58.75 -94.8
M C Chapman 1 68 1.5 -£53.00 -77.9
M G Rimell 0 51 0.0 -£51.00 -100.0
Miss L C Siddall 0 51 0.0 -£51.00 -100.0

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding these trainers this month, unless there is a pretty compelling reason not to!

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. This is especially so with this month’s data, as it is hard to find decent positive angles from the main data. Hence, let us look at chase races only in March since 2005:

All chases (Mar 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
O Sherwood 12 53 22.6 +£25.23 +47.6
C J Mann 13 58 22.4 -£5.03 -8.7
J Wade 7 32 21.9 +£4.83 +15.1
J A B Old 9 43 20.9 +£9.69 +22.5
P F Nicholls 47 246 19.1 -£60.50 -24.6
Mrs Caroline Bailey 7 37 18.9 +£3.25 +8.8
Mrs S J Smith 30 160 18.8 +£135.46 +84.7
Dr R D P Newland 6 34 17.7 -£6.42 -18.9
Andrew Turnell 8 46 17.4 +£4.38 +9.5
V R A Dartnall 6 35 17.1 -£11.36 -32.5
A King 19 112 17.0 -£25.73 -23.0
T R George 15 89 16.9 +£16.07 +18.1
P Monteith 11 67 16.4 +£5.69 +8.5
Miss E C Lavelle 7 43 16.3 -£4.25 -9.9
D McCain Jnr 13 80 16.3 -£12.41 -15.5

 

Oliver Sherwood tops the list and it should be noted all his profits have been down to his 7 handicap winners. Tom George appears lower on the list in terms of strike rate but it should be noted that when his runners have been in the top 4 of the betting he has saddled 14 winners from 47 (SR 29.8%), whereas horses 5th or bigger in the market have seen just 1 winner from 42 (SR 2.4%).

Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:

All chases (Mar 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
M Scudamore 5 74 6.8 -£39.50 -53.4
M W Easterby 2 32 6.3 -£21.88 -68.4
M Sheppard 2 35 5.7 -£21.75 -62.1
P R Webber 2 35 5.7 -£25.75 -73.6
A W Carroll 2 41 4.9 -£22.00 -53.7
J M Jefferson 2 47 4.3 -£41.25 -87.8
R Johnson 2 50 4.0 -£27.50 -55.0
P Beaumont 1 36 2.8 -£32.25 -89.6
J A Geake 0 31 0.0 -£31.00 -100.0

 

The lesser said about these figures the better!

Moving onto hurdle races now:

All hurdle races (Mar 05-10) – 35 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Jim Best 14 59 23.7 +£5.29 +9.0
G A Swinbank 8 35 22.9 -£6.67 -19.1
Mrs L Wadham 14 71 19.7 +£22.93 +32.3
P J Hobbs 52 273 19.1 -£23.47 -8.6
A W Carroll 13 73 17.8 +£53.88 +73.8
C Grant 11 62 17.7 £1.03 1.7
P Monteith 9 52 17.3 -£14.30 -27.5
P F Nicholls 35 204 17.2 -£18.25 -9.0
N J Henderson 48 282 17.0 -£5.16 -1.8
Andrew Turnell 7 42 16.7 -£13.50 -32.1
Ferdy Murphy 21 131 16.0 -£50.94 -38.9
H D Daly 17 109 15.6 -£10.78 -9.9
G A Charlton 7 46 15.2 +£14.88 +32.3
J S Goldie 6 40 15.0 +£14.83 +37.1
A King 41 274 15.0 -£88.12 -32.2

 

Lucy Wadham was high up in the hurdle standings in February and at face value she looks one to note in March when tackling hurdle races. However, take away an excellent 2005 and she has made a loss in the other four years. Before discarding her though, she should be noted when saddling the favourite or the second favourite in a hurdle race – her record reads an impressive 9 winners from 14 (SR 64.3%) for a profit of £21.93 (ROI +156.6%)….. and she has shown a profit in all of the six years with these fancied runners.

Finally let us move onto bumpers. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:

All bumper races (Mar 05-10) – 20 runs minimum

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
G A Swinbank 13 46 28.3 -£4.47 -9.7
N J Henderson 16 63 25.4 +£1.83 +2.9
P F Nicholls 9 38 23.7 -£1.30 -3.4
N A Twiston-Davies 7 30 23.3 +£5.08 +16.9
Jonjo O'Neill 5 23 21.7 -£3.00 -13.0
D McCain Jnr 4 20 20.0 +£9.38 +46.9
Mrs S J Smith 4 20 20.0 +£8.63 +43.1
N G Richards 4 20 20.0 -£2.75 -13.8
A King 13 69 18.8 -£17.15 -24.9
J M Jefferson 4 23 17.4 -£7.21 -31.4
J Howard Johnson 5 32 15.6 +£10.38 +32.4
V R A Dartnall 3 21 14.3 -£11.28 -53.7
P J Hobbs 5 36 13.9 -£25.64 -71.2
Miss H C Knight 3 23 13.0 -£10.82 -47.1
A C Whillans 2 20 10.0 +£0.50 +2.5
R T Phillips 2 21 9.5 -£12.00 -57.1
M W Easterby 2 22 9.1 -£10.75 -48.9
W P Mullins 2 23 8.7 -£5.50 -23.9
K G Reveley 3 35 8.6 -£22.00 -62.9
B G Powell 2 29 6.9 +£11.00 +37.9
P R Webber 2 36 5.6 +£24.50 +68.1
O Sherwood 1 21 4.8 -£18.38 -87.5
H D Daly 2 43 4.7 +£0.00 +0.0
M Scudamore 1 23 4.4 -£6.00 -26.1
C L Tizzard 1 25 4.0 +£16.00 +64.0
J W Mullins 0 24 0.0 -£24.00 -100.0
C J Down 0 21 0.0 -£21.00 -100.0

 

Swinbank, Henderson and Nicholls all have good strike rates but making money from backing their charges has not been easy. Swinbank’s winners have all been 6/1 or shorter and sticking to these would have produced a small profit; Henderson has made a profit with his bumper debutants thanks to 12 winners from 34 (SR 35.3%) for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +47.1%); Nicholls is 6 wins from 15 (SR 40%) in bumpers for maidens for a profit of £9.20 (ROI -61.3%).

March offers some interesting trainer stats, but with some very competitive racing finding strong profitable angles is not particularly easy.








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