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March Trainers


March trainers by David Renham

Each month I write an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of Marchwith data taken from 2003 to 2009.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (March 03-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
G Swinbank 19 89 21.4 -£33.11 -37.2
A Turnell 16 80 20.0 +£5.88 +7.3
Mrs S Smith 66 331 19.9 +£158.21 +47.8
P Nicholls 106 575 18.4 -£93.20 -16.2
P Monteith 22 123 17.9 -£9.94 -8.1
D McCain Jnr 30 174 17.2 +£40.15 +23.1
P Hobbs 97 563 17.2 -£93.82 -16.7
J Mackie 14 84 16.7 +£31.10 +37.0
A King 72 448 16.1 -£113.61 -25.4
N Richards 31 197 15.7 -£73.75 -37.4
R H & Mrs S Alner 12 77 15.6 +£18.00 +23.4
V Dartnall 15 98 15.3 -£27.57 -28.1
N Henderson 79 522 15.1 -£77.01 -14.8
J Howard Johnson 48 319 15.1 -£78.18 -24.5
J Wade 9 61 14.8 -£17.57 -28.8
J O'Neill 74 506 14.6 +£5.39 +1.1
Miss E Lavelle 20 137 14.6 -£4.93 -3.6
H Daly 42 290 14.5 -£31.64 -10.9
J Spearing 12 83 14.5 +£13.30 +16.0
Mrs L Wadham 16 113 14.2 +£18.43 +16.3
J Cornwall 10 71 14.1 +£29.00 +40.9

 

Sue Smith has a very good overall record in March, and although a 66/1 winner has made a big difference, even without that she has performed well. In 4 of the 7 years she has achieved a strike rate in excess of 20% and when you consider her strike rate for all months is around 13%, we can see that March is a month where her runners tend to peak. The betting market has been a good guide to the chances of her runners with favourites and second favourites combining to produce 39 wins from 95 runners (SR 41.1%) for a profit of £49.20 (ROI +51.8%).

Lucy Wadham, if you remember made a profit in February and has achieved this once again March. She is a lesser known trainer, but one who seems to be under the radar somewhat.

I often focus on the ‘best’ performing trainers in these articles, but it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (March 03-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
G Harker 4 75 5.3 -£58.30 -77.7
P Beaumont 6 113 5.3 +£15.00 +13.3
J A Geake 4 76 5.3 -£45.25 -59.5
D Wintle 4 89 4.5 -£53.75 -60.4
D Gandolfo 3 67 4.5 -£14.00 -20.9
Dr P Pritchard 3 71 4.2 -£33.00 -46.5
M Chapman 3 78 3.9 -£58.18 -74.6
C Down 4 106 3.8 -£60.00 -56.6
M Scudamore 5 156 3.2 -£107.00 -68.6
Mrs L Jewell 2 65 3.1 -£52.00 -80.0
N Meade 2 69 2.9 -£46.50 -67.4
M Gingell 3 107 2.8 -£56.25 -52.6
J Jenkins 2 81 2.5 -£74.57 -92.1
B Pollock 1 66 1.5 -£62.75 -95.1
M Sowersby 0 63 0.0 -£63.00 -100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in March since 2003 (see overleaf):



 

All chases (March 03-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15.5%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Miss H Dalton 8 32 25.0 +£10.80 +33.8
A Turnell 8 34 23.5 +£16.38 +48.2
Mrs S Smith 36 162 22.2 +£160.23 +98.9
J Wade 7 32 21.9 +£4.93 +15.4
C Mann 13 61 21.3 -£10.15 -16.7
O Sherwood 11 53 20.8 +£15.72 +29.7
L Lungo 9 44 20.5 -£3.13 -7.1
P Nicholls 59 303 19.5 -£71.31 -23.5
D McCain Jnr 10 54 18.5 -£2.94 -5.5
G L Moore 14 76 18.4 +£21.49 +28.3
A King 18 98 18.4 £8.20 +8.4
Miss E Lavelle 8 45 17.8 -£3.00 -6.7
C Grant 6 34 17.7 -£3.08 -9.1
H Daly 22 125 17.6 -£6.17 -4.9
T George 18 109 16.5 +£9.70 +8.9
N Richards 8 50 16.0 -£19.56 -39.1
J O'Neill 28 176 15.9 +£52.50 29.8
I Williams 14 88 15.9 -£9.32 -10.6
P Hobbs 32 202 15.8 -£69.79 -34.6
J Cornwall 10 64 15.6 +£36.00 +56.3
Miss S Forster 5 32 15.6 +£15.50 +48.4
Mrs L Normile 5 32 15.6 +£2.44 +7.6
Miss H Knight 13 84 15.5 -£21.44 -25.5

 

As we can see Sue Smith has excelled with her chasers and all her overall profits have come from them. 29 of her 36 winners have been in handicaps and it is definitely handicaps where we need to concentrate on as far as she is concerned. Let us now move to hurdle races:

All hurdle races (March 03-09) – 40 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Jim Best 44 10 22.7 +£7.81 +17.8
P Monteith 68 14 20.6 -£4.13 -6.1
P Hobbs 314 59 18.8 +£3.57 +1.1
J Mackie 64 12 18.8 +£35.60 +55.6
Mrs L Wadham 76 14 18.4 +£21.43 +28.2
Mrs S Smith 142 26 18.3 -£9.15 -6.4
P Nicholls 233 38 16.3 -£20.59 -8.8
R Fahey 44 7 15.9 +£3.55 +8.1
H Daly 120 19 15.8 -£14.47 -12.1
D McCain Jnr 104 16 15.4 +£29.72 +28.6
J Howard Johnson 191 29 15.2 -£43.91 -23.0
V Dartnall 53 8 15.1 -£11.05 -20.9
Miss E Lavelle 74 11 14.9 +£12.07 +16.3
J L Spearing 54 8 14.8 +£8.30 +15.4
A King 278 41 14.8 -£100.57 -36.2
R Ford 41 6 14.6 +£7.00 +17.1
S Burrough 41 6 14.6 +£12.50 +30.5
N Henderson 301 44 14.6 -£67.02 -22.3
N Richards 125 18 14.4 -£50.93 -40.8

 

Some lesser known trainers dominate the top of this table (in terms of strike rate). Jim Best who tops the list should be noted when his runners are fancied as 9 of his 10 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting. Second in the list, Peter Monteith, should be noted in non handicap hurdles as he has saddled 11 winners from 27 in this sphere for a profit of £21.87 (ROI +81%). His handicap hurlde record is a poor 3 from 44 so these as best avoided it seems! John Mackie, third on the list, has been the opposite to Monteith with his handicappers providing all the winners (12 wins from 52); he is 0 from 12 in non handicaps.

All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.








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