LTO Winners On The Flat
When most punters start analysing a race, one of the first things they will do is check out the horses’ recent form, paying special attention to their last time out performance. So how important is a win LTO? Let me look at the performance of all LTO winners on the flat from 2008 to 2010:
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss to SP
|
ROI% (SP)
|
Profit/loss to BSP
|
ROI% (BSP)
|
|
3071
|
18218
|
16.9
|
-£3098.93
|
-17.0
|
-£1290.78
|
-7.1
|
LTO winners win around once in every 6 runs and even using BSP they have lost around 7 pence in the £. In order to find more profitable angles (hopefully) I need to do some digging.
Age – splitting the results of LTO winners by age gives us the following results:
|
Age
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss to SP
|
ROI% (SP)
|
Profit/loss to BSP
|
ROI% (BSP)
|
|
2
|
445
|
2657
|
16.8
|
-£573.54
|
-21.6
|
-£317.90
|
-12.0
|
|
3
|
1153
|
6403
|
18.0
|
-£960.18
|
-15.0
|
-£338.80
|
-5.3
|
|
4
|
660
|
3691
|
17.9
|
-£407.31
|
-11.0
|
-£27.40
|
-0.7
|
|
5
|
371
|
2318
|
16.0
|
-£331.41
|
-14.3
|
-£93.24
|
-4.0
|
|
6
|
197
|
1427
|
13.8
|
-£470.79
|
-33.0
|
-£346.96
|
-24.3
|
|
7
|
133
|
898
|
14.8
|
-£82.78
|
-9.2
|
+£29.19
|
+3.3
|
|
8+
|
112
|
824
|
13.6
|
-£272.92
|
-33.1
|
-£195.67
|
-23.7
|
The results suggest that horses aged 3 to 5 produce the best results for LTO winners; on the other hand 8 years and older look worth avoiding. Indeed if you combine 8yos and older with the LTO win achieved over 4 weeks previous to that, the figures look a depressing 9 wins from 164 (SR 5.5%) for a loss to SP of £107.85 (ROI -65.8%); losses to BSP have been -£89.02 (ROI -54.3%).
On a more positive note if you reverse this idea and focus on the best age band (3-5yos) with their LTO win coming within the last 7 days, one gets the following results – 361 wins from 1393 runners (SR 25.9%) for a profit to SP of £21.54 (ROI +1.5%); profits to BSP stand at £134.95 (ROI + 9.7%).
Market position– splitting the results of LTO winners by market position is my next area of research:
|
Market Rank
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss to SP
|
ROI% (SP)
|
Profit/loss to BSP
|
ROI% (BSP)
|
|
Favourite
|
1600
|
5107
|
31.3
|
-£478.69
|
-9.4
|
-£228.87
|
-4.5
|
|
2nd fav
|
627
|
3289
|
19.1
|
-£372.04
|
-11.3
|
-£174.74
|
-5.3
|
|
3rd fav
|
348
|
2520
|
13.8
|
-£351.70
|
-14.0
|
-£118.86
|
-4.7
|
|
4th in betting
|
215
|
2012
|
10.7
|
-£243.50
|
-12.1
|
+£12.37
|
+0.6
|
|
5th in betting
|
108
|
1473
|
7.3
|
-£413.50
|
-28.1
|
-£221.30
|
-15.0
|
|
6th + in betting
|
173
|
3817
|
4.5
|
-£1239.50
|
-32.5
|
-£559.37
|
-14.7
|
The market position in terms for LTO winners does seem to make a difference. Those runners starting in the top four in the betting combine to lose only 4 pence in the £ at BSP.
Course LTO – it seems a logical idea to investigate at which course the LTO win was achieved – here is a breakdown of all UK courses:
|
Course LTO
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss to SP
|
ROI% (SP)
|
Profit/loss to BSP
|
ROI% (BSP)
|
|
Ascot
|
52
|
290
|
17.9
|
-£63.10
|
-21.8
|
-£25.65
|
-8.8
|
|
Ayr
|
51
|
326
|
15.6
|
+£3.58
|
+1.1
|
+£71.95
|
+22.1
|
|
Bath
|
57
|
393
|
14.5
|
-£59.98
|
-15.3
|
+£12.85
|
+3.3
|
|
Beverley
|
57
|
390
|
14.6
|
-£126.39
|
-32.4
|
-£86.67
|
-22.2
|
|
Brighton
|
59
|
394
|
15.0
|
-£145.65
|
-37.0
|
-£112.15
|
-28.5
|
|
Carlisle
|
42
|
163
|
25.8
|
+£24.97
|
+15.3
|
+£44.56
|
+27.3
|
|
Catterick
|
48
|
346
|
13.9
|
-£78.47
|
-22.7
|
-£35.14
|
-10.2
|
|
Chepstow
|
32
|
202
|
15.8
|
-£18.16
|
-9.0
|
+£11.93
|
+5.9
|
|
Chester
|
29
|
242
|
12.0
|
-£100.91
|
-41.7
|
-£74.19
|
-30.7
|
|
Doncaster
|
71
|
437
|
16.3
|
-£82.79
|
-19.0
|
-£33.13
|
-7.6
|
|
Epsom
|
21
|
179
|
11.7
|
-£68.10
|
-38.1
|
-£39.80
|
-22.2
|
|
Ffos Las
|
11
|
76
|
14.5
|
-£30.19
|
-39.7
|
-£21.66
|
-28.5
|
|
Folkestone
|
32
|
267
|
12.0
|
-£93.99
|
-35.2
|
-£57.21
|
-21.4
|
|
Goodwood
|
87
|
434
|
20.1
|
+£33.56
|
+7.7
|
+£114.60
|
+26.4
|
|
Great Leighs aw
|
50
|
291
|
17.2
|
-£55.88
|
-19.2
|
-£16.41
|
-5.6
|
|
Hamilton
|
67
|
343
|
19.5
|
-£24.85
|
-7.3
|
+£29.31
|
+8.6
|
|
Haydock
|
58
|
402
|
14.4
|
-£112.48
|
-28.0
|
-£60.31
|
-15.0
|
|
Kempton aw
|
298
|
1687
|
17.7
|
-£142.53
|
-8.5
|
+£119.05
|
+7.1
|
|
Leicester
|
56
|
384
|
14.6
|
-£75.58
|
-19.7
|
+£17.13
|
+4.5
|
|
Lingfield turf
|
36
|
227
|
15.9
|
-£25.93
|
-11.4
|
+£8.79
|
+3.9
|
|
Lingfield aw
|
299
|
1552
|
19.3
|
-£230.73
|
-14.9
|
-£27.71
|
-1.8
|
|
Musselburgh
|
63
|
336
|
18.8
|
+£31.76
|
+9.5
|
+£86.74
|
+25.8
|
|
Newbury
|
62
|
381
|
16.3
|
-£80.90
|
-21.2
|
-£44.61
|
-11.7
|
|
Newcastle
|
46
|
323
|
14.2
|
-£91.41
|
-28.3
|
-£44.70
|
-13.8
|
|
Newmarket
|
129
|
746
|
17.3
|
-£149.38
|
-20.0
|
-£69.20
|
-9.3
|
|
Nottingham
|
76
|
389
|
19.5
|
+£96.24
|
+24.7
|
+£204.33
|
+52.5
|
|
Pontefract
|
40
|
299
|
13.4
|
-£74.16
|
-24.8
|
-£38.82
|
-13.0
|
|
Redcar
|
71
|
378
|
18.8
|
+£77.11
|
+20.4
|
+£192.46
|
+50.9
|
|
Ripon
|
45
|
287
|
15.7
|
-£65.05
|
-22.7
|
-£36.41
|
-12.7
|
|
Salisbury
|
58
|
304
|
19.1
|
-£11.99
|
-3.9
|
+£37.70
|
+12.4
|
|
Sandown
|
66
|
342
|
19.3
|
-£55.41
|
-16.2
|
-£17.64
|
-5.2
|
|
Southwell turf
|
3
|
17
|
17.6
|
-£1.63
|
-9.6
|
-£0.65
|
-3.8
|
|
Southwell aw
|
214
|
1212
|
17.7
|
-£424.41
|
-35.0
|
-£341.54
|
-28.2
|
|
Thirsk
|
31
|
276
|
11.2
|
-£100.46
|
-36.4
|
-£70.57
|
-25.6
|
|
Warwick
|
42
|
252
|
16.7
|
-£38.54
|
-15.3
|
-£4.85
|
-1.9
|
|
Windsor
|
75
|
467
|
16.1
|
-£74.84
|
-16.0
|
+£3.62
|
+0.8
|
|
Wolverhampton aw
|
360
|
1968
|
18.3
|
-£308.60
|
-15.7
|
-£60.69
|
-3.1
|
|
Yarmouth
|
81
|
477
|
17.0
|
-£91.37
|
-19.2
|
-£8.53
|
-1.8
|
|
York
|
39
|
290
|
13.5
|
-£128.38
|
-44.3
|
-£111.41
|
-38.4
|
There are significant differences in strike rates and returns amongst the courses. Brighton and Chester are generally regarded as quirky tracks and their poor returns for LTO winners should come as no surprise. The low standard of racing at Southwell on the all weather is almost certainly why the Midland’s LTO course results are poor. The results for Carlisle LTO winners are excellent, but finding a reason to explain this is nigh on impossible!
Race type LTO – looking at what type of race the win was achieved is clearly important so here is the breakdown:
|
Race type LTO
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss to SP
|
ROI% (SP)
|
Profit/loss to BSP
|
ROI% (BSP)
|
|
Group 1
|
22
|
80
|
27.5
|
-£15.68
|
-19.6
|
-£12.55
|
-15.7
|
|
Group 2
|
28
|
118
|
23.7
|
-£0.51
|
-0.4
|
+£9.50
|
+8.1
|
|
Group 3
|
31
|
198
|
15.7
|
-£59.49
|
-30.1
|
-£48.98
|
-24.7
|
|
Listed races
|
61
|
410
|
14.9
|
-£125.10
|
-30.5
|
-£97.71
|
-23.8
|
|
Conditions races
|
51
|
333
|
15.3
|
-£62.75
|
-18.9
|
-£28.62
|
-8.6
|
|
Handicap races
|
1823
|
10976
|
16.6
|
-£1896.76
|
-17.3
|
-£826.66
|
-7.5
|
|
Maiden races
|
641
|
3889
|
16.5
|
-£551.35
|
-14.2
|
-£93.96
|
-2.4
|
|
Novice races
|
35
|
242
|
14.5
|
-£46.76
|
-19.3
|
-£27.24
|
-11.3
|
|
Female only
|
232
|
1561
|
14.9
|
-£319.33
|
-20.5
|
-£172.50
|
-11.1
|
|
Claimers
|
171
|
898
|
19.0
|
-£292.27
|
-32.6
|
-£245.03
|
-27.3
|
|
Sellers
|
135
|
786
|
17.2
|
-£78.03
|
-9.9
|
+£14.17
|
+1.8
|
|
Amateur races
|
25
|
223
|
11.2
|
-£89.89
|
-40.3
|
-£72.75
|
-32.6
|
There does seem a real pattern here – there are poor results at either end of the “class” spectrum such as Group 3 and Listed for better races, and claimers and amateur races for lower grade races. However, the Group 2 results and the LTO seller results do not fit into the pattern.
LTO winners in maidens look under-rated slightly by the betting public especially when looking at the BSP returns which have almost broken even. Maidens for 4yo runners and older are rare but LTO winners in that sphere have made a profit. Of the main maiden age groups LTO winners in 2yo maidens have performed the best next time.
Class LTO – I mentioned class in the previous section so it makes sense to break the results down by class LTO:
|
Class LTO
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss to SP
|
ROI% (SP)
|
Profit/loss to BSP
|
ROI% (BSP)
|
|
1
|
145
|
824
|
17.6
|
-£203.01
|
-24.6
|
-£151.68
|
-18.4
|
|
2
|
138
|
996
|
13.9
|
-£262.15
|
-26.3
|
-£187.61
|
-18.8
|
|
3
|
189
|
1249
|
15.1
|
-£173.10
|
-13.9
|
-£8.33
|
-0.7
|
|
4
|
598
|
3707
|
16.1
|
-£658.64
|
-17.8
|
-£284.64
|
-7.7
|
|
5
|
1072
|
6360
|
16.9
|
-£1108.41
|
-17.4
|
-£466.69
|
-7.3
|
|
6
|
897
|
4928
|
18.2
|
-£673.51
|
-13.7
|
-£188.93
|
-3.8
|
|
7
|
32
|
154
|
20.8
|
-£20.10
|
-13.1
|
-£2.90
|
-1.9
|
In general the results suggest that a win in a lower class is preferable when focusing on the returns at both SP and BSP.
In conclusion, LTO winners are probably over-bet and I personally look for find reasons to oppose them. There are plenty of negative stats highlighted in this article that could be utilized in the coming months.
Before I finish I must give accreditation to Proform software as their database helped me to write this article. I have written a review of the software with the link being:
http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/proform_software_review_jan_2011.php
From this link you can read more about the software, get a link to their site, and how to get a discount if you are a Punter Profits member.
