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LTO Winners On The Flat


 

LTO Winners On The Flat

 

When most punters start analysing a race, one of the first things they will do is check out the horses’ recent form, paying special attention to their last time out performance. So how important is a win LTO? Let me look at the performance of all LTO winners on the flat from 2008 to 2010:

 

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss to SP

ROI% (SP)

Profit/loss to BSP

ROI% (BSP)

3071

18218

16.9

-£3098.93

-17.0

-£1290.78

-7.1

 

LTO winners win around once in every 6 runs and even using BSP they have lost around 7 pence in the £. In order to find more profitable angles (hopefully) I need to do some digging.

 

Age – splitting the results of LTO winners by age gives us the following results:

 

Age

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss to SP

ROI% (SP)

Profit/loss to BSP

ROI% (BSP)

2

445

2657

16.8

-£573.54

-21.6

-£317.90

-12.0

3

1153

6403

18.0

-£960.18

-15.0

-£338.80

-5.3

4

660

3691

17.9

-£407.31

-11.0

-£27.40

-0.7

5

371

2318

16.0

-£331.41

-14.3

-£93.24

-4.0

6

197

1427

13.8

-£470.79

-33.0

-£346.96

-24.3

7

133

898

14.8

-£82.78

-9.2

+£29.19

+3.3

8+

112

824

13.6

-£272.92

-33.1

-£195.67

-23.7

 

The results suggest that horses aged 3 to 5 produce the best results for LTO winners; on the other hand 8 years and older look worth avoiding. Indeed if you combine 8yos and older with the LTO win achieved over 4 weeks previous to that, the figures look a depressing 9 wins from 164 (SR 5.5%) for a loss to SP of £107.85 (ROI -65.8%); losses to BSP have been -£89.02 (ROI -54.3%).

 

On a more positive note if you reverse this idea and focus on the best age band (3-5yos) with their LTO win coming within the last 7 days, one gets the following results – 361 wins from 1393 runners (SR 25.9%) for a profit to SP of £21.54 (ROI +1.5%); profits to BSP stand at £134.95 (ROI + 9.7%).

 

Market position– splitting the results of LTO winners by market position is my next area of research:

 

Market Rank

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss to SP

ROI% (SP)

Profit/loss to BSP

ROI% (BSP)

Favourite

1600

5107

31.3

-£478.69

-9.4

-£228.87

-4.5

2nd fav

627

3289

19.1

-£372.04

-11.3

-£174.74

-5.3

3rd fav

348

2520

13.8

-£351.70

-14.0

-£118.86

-4.7

4th in betting

215

2012

10.7

-£243.50

-12.1

+£12.37

+0.6

5th in betting

108

1473

7.3

-£413.50

-28.1

-£221.30

-15.0

6th + in betting

173

3817

4.5

-£1239.50

-32.5

-£559.37

-14.7

 

The market position in terms for LTO winners does seem to make a difference. Those runners starting in the top four in the betting combine to lose only 4 pence in the £ at BSP.

 

Course LTO – it seems a logical idea to investigate at which course the LTO win was achieved – here is a breakdown of all UK courses:

 

Course LTO

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss to SP

ROI% (SP)

Profit/loss to BSP

ROI% (BSP)

Ascot

52

290

17.9

-£63.10

-21.8

-£25.65

-8.8

Ayr

51

326

15.6

+£3.58

+1.1

+£71.95

+22.1

Bath

57

393

14.5

-£59.98

-15.3

+£12.85

+3.3

Beverley

57

390

14.6

-£126.39

-32.4

-£86.67

-22.2

Brighton

59

394

15.0

-£145.65

-37.0

-£112.15

-28.5

Carlisle

42

163

25.8

+£24.97

+15.3

+£44.56

+27.3

Catterick

48

346

13.9

-£78.47

-22.7

-£35.14

-10.2

Chepstow

32

202

15.8

-£18.16

-9.0

+£11.93

+5.9

Chester

29

242

12.0

-£100.91

-41.7

-£74.19

-30.7

Doncaster

71

437

16.3

-£82.79

-19.0

-£33.13

-7.6

Epsom

21

179

11.7

-£68.10

-38.1

-£39.80

-22.2

Ffos Las

11

76

14.5

-£30.19

-39.7

-£21.66

-28.5

Folkestone

32

267

12.0

-£93.99

-35.2

-£57.21

-21.4

Goodwood

87

434

20.1

+£33.56

+7.7

+£114.60

+26.4

Great Leighs aw

50

291

17.2

-£55.88

-19.2

-£16.41

-5.6

Hamilton

67

343

19.5

-£24.85

-7.3

+£29.31

+8.6

Haydock

58

402

14.4

-£112.48

-28.0

-£60.31

-15.0

Kempton aw

298

1687

17.7

-£142.53

-8.5

+£119.05

+7.1

Leicester

56

384

14.6

-£75.58

-19.7

+£17.13

+4.5

Lingfield turf

36

227

15.9

-£25.93

-11.4

+£8.79

+3.9

Lingfield aw

299

1552

19.3

-£230.73

-14.9

-£27.71

-1.8

Musselburgh

63

336

18.8

+£31.76

+9.5

+£86.74

+25.8

Newbury

62

381

16.3

-£80.90

-21.2

-£44.61

-11.7

Newcastle

46

323

14.2

-£91.41

-28.3

-£44.70

-13.8

Newmarket

129

746

17.3

-£149.38

-20.0

-£69.20

-9.3

Nottingham

76

389

19.5

+£96.24

+24.7

+£204.33

+52.5

Pontefract

40

299

13.4

-£74.16

-24.8

-£38.82

-13.0

Redcar

71

378

18.8

+£77.11

+20.4

+£192.46

+50.9

Ripon

45

287

15.7

-£65.05

-22.7

-£36.41

-12.7

Salisbury

58

304

19.1

-£11.99

-3.9

+£37.70

+12.4

Sandown

66

342

19.3

-£55.41

-16.2

-£17.64

-5.2

Southwell turf

3

17

17.6

-£1.63

-9.6

-£0.65

-3.8

Southwell aw

214

1212

17.7

-£424.41

-35.0

-£341.54

-28.2

Thirsk

31

276

11.2

-£100.46

-36.4

-£70.57

-25.6

Warwick

42

252

16.7

-£38.54

-15.3

-£4.85

-1.9

Windsor

75

467

16.1

-£74.84

-16.0

+£3.62

+0.8

Wolverhampton aw

360

1968

18.3

-£308.60

-15.7

-£60.69

-3.1

Yarmouth

81

477

17.0

-£91.37

-19.2

-£8.53

-1.8

York

39

290

13.5

-£128.38

-44.3

-£111.41

-38.4

 

There are significant differences in strike rates and returns amongst the courses. Brighton and Chester are generally regarded as quirky tracks and their poor returns for LTO winners should come as no surprise. The low standard of racing at Southwell on the all weather is almost certainly why the Midland’s LTO course results are poor. The results for Carlisle LTO winners are excellent, but finding a reason to explain this is nigh on impossible!

 

Race type LTO – looking at what type of race the win was achieved is clearly important so here is the breakdown:

 

Race type LTO

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss to SP

ROI% (SP)

Profit/loss to BSP

ROI% (BSP)

Group 1

22

80

27.5

-£15.68

-19.6

-£12.55

-15.7

Group 2

28

118

23.7

-£0.51

-0.4

+£9.50

+8.1

Group 3

31

198

15.7

-£59.49

-30.1

-£48.98

-24.7

Listed races

61

410

14.9

-£125.10

-30.5

-£97.71

-23.8

Conditions races

51

333

15.3

-£62.75

-18.9

-£28.62

-8.6

Handicap races

1823

10976

16.6

-£1896.76

-17.3

-£826.66

-7.5

Maiden races

641

3889

16.5

-£551.35

-14.2

-£93.96

-2.4

Novice races

35

242

14.5

-£46.76

-19.3

-£27.24

-11.3

Female only

232

1561

14.9

-£319.33

-20.5

-£172.50

-11.1

Claimers

171

898

19.0

-£292.27

-32.6

-£245.03

-27.3

Sellers

135

786

17.2

-£78.03

-9.9

+£14.17

+1.8

Amateur races

25

223

11.2

-£89.89

-40.3

-£72.75

-32.6

 

There does seem a real pattern here – there are poor results at either end of the “class” spectrum such as Group 3 and Listed for better races, and claimers and amateur races for lower grade races. However, the Group 2 results and the LTO seller results do not fit into the pattern.

 

LTO winners in maidens look under-rated slightly by the betting public especially when looking at the BSP returns which have almost broken even. Maidens for 4yo runners and older are rare but LTO winners in that sphere have made a profit. Of the main maiden age groups LTO winners in 2yo maidens have performed the best next time.

 

Class LTO – I mentioned class in the previous section so it makes sense to break the results down by class LTO:

 

Class LTO

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss to SP

ROI% (SP)

Profit/loss to BSP

ROI% (BSP)

1

145

824

17.6

-£203.01

-24.6

-£151.68

-18.4

2

138

996

13.9

-£262.15

-26.3

-£187.61

-18.8

3

189

1249

15.1

-£173.10

-13.9

-£8.33

-0.7

4

598

3707

16.1

-£658.64

-17.8

-£284.64

-7.7

5

1072

6360

16.9

-£1108.41

-17.4

-£466.69

-7.3

6

897

4928

18.2

-£673.51

-13.7

-£188.93

-3.8

7

32

154

20.8

-£20.10

-13.1

-£2.90

-1.9

 

In general the results suggest that a win in a lower class is preferable when focusing on the returns at both SP and BSP.

 

In conclusion, LTO winners are probably over-bet and I personally look for find reasons to oppose them. There are plenty of negative stats highlighted in this article that could be utilized in the coming months.

 

Before I finish I must give accreditation to Proform software as their database helped me to write this article. I have written a review of the software with the link being:

http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/proform_software_review_jan_2011.php

 

From this link you can read more about the software, get a link to their site, and how to get a discount if you are a Punter Profits member.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 








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