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Low Grade All Weather Racing


 

Low Grade All Weather Racing

 

Some punters are prejudiced when it comes to all weather racing, even more so low grade all weather racing. However, it is my belief that there is scope to make money in all types of racing and that applies to the low grade fare. In this article I have looked at all age selling races to see if we can gain an edge. The data has been taken from Jan 1st 2007 focusing on the months of November to March.

 

3yo+/4yo+ Selling races

 

I bet many of you don’t bet in sellers, but did you know if you had backed the favourite in these races over the period of study, you would have a made a profit? Yes a profit! It should be noted that in general the market is a good guide in sellers. Here are the market rank stats to mull over:

 

Market Rank

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Favourite

131

308

42.5

+£11.74

+3.8

2nd favourite

63

289

21.8

-£26.34

-9.1

3rd favourite

33

289

11.4

-£58.34

-20.2

4th in betting

25

277

9.0

-£13.00

-4.7

5th in betting

17

262

6.5

-£32.00

-12.2

6th + in betting

17

890

1.9

-£572.00

-64.3

 

Favourites have made a small profit to SP as noted above, and as we can see the market does tend to get it right. Outsiders have a poor record and if we look at big priced runners (33/1 or higher) we should note that only 2 of 521 such runners have won. Backing them all would have lost you a thumping 84 pence for every £1 staked!

 

Not only is there a market bias; there is a weight bias as well. I have grouped the weights into three bands to illustrate this:

 

Weight Rank

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st to 3rd

212

1169

18.1

-125.42

-10.7

4th to 6th

48

610

7.9

-296.86

-48.7

7th +

26

536

4.9

-267.67

-49.9

 

The top three in the weights have a huge edge over all other runners in sellers.

 

Another interesting slant is to look at the headgear stats – normally horses wearing headgear are worth avoiding. However, in these sellers more than half have worn headgear so we need a comparison:

 

Headgear?

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

No headgear

1061

123

11.6

-£429.56

-40.5

Headgear

1254

163

13.0

-£260.38

-20.8

 

As we can see, horses wearing headgear lose around 20 pence in the £ less than horses that do not wear headgear. Also they have a slightly better strike rate. Facts worth taking on board.

 

Age is something worth looking at and two key points stand out. Firstly avoid 3yos in 3yo+ sellers - they have secured just 11 winners from 213 (SR 5.2%) for losses of £121.95 (ROI – 56.9%). Conversely, take older runners (8 to 10yos) seriously as they have combined to produce 73 winners from 450 runners (SR 16.2%) for a loss of only £4.21 (ROI -0.9%).

 

Next variable I looked at was the sex of the horse – about 80% of runners over the period of study have been males, but it is still worth doing a comparison:

 

Sex of horse

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

male

263

1840

14.3

-£420.16

-22.8

female

23

472

4.9

-£266.78

-56.5

 

The stats show that females (fillies and mares) really struggle. They look best avoided.

 

So what about the race contested LTO. The perception of some punters is that horses coming from handicaps into sellers are worth a second glance – however, is that the case here?

 

Race type LTO

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Claiming race

89

466

19.1

+£0.69

+0.2

Handicap race

119

1079

11.0

-£356.66

-33.1

Maiden race

4

115

3.5

-£75.83

-65.9

Selling race

69

540

12.8

-£195.21

-36.2

 

Well it does not seem the case! Amazingly horses coming from claimers have an decent record scoring nearly one in every five starts for a break even situation. I cannot really explain why these figures are so good – I will be checking turf data to see if a similar pattern emerges there.

 

Recent form is a factor that 95% of punters take into account so let us have a look at LTO run:

 

Position LTO

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

37

137

27.0

-£36.47

-26.6

2nd

50

195

25.6

-£14.87

-7.6

3rd

36

208

17.3

-£45.18

-21.7

4th

36

239

15.1

-£55.44

-23.2

5th

32

226

14.2

-£24.03

-10.6

6th

22

223

9.9

-£51.59

-23.1

 7th or worse

73

1087

6.7

-£462.36

-42.5

 

Decent strike rates for winners and horses that finished second LTO, although winners show fairly significant losses to SP.

 

Another factor punters regularly take into account is fitness – I have used days since last run as my barometer of fitness:

 

Days off track

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1-7

79

402

19.7

-£8.30

-2.1

8-14

81

651

12.4

-£197.26

-30.3

15-21

45

387

11.6

-£90.34

-23.3

22-42

43

440

9.8

-£182.65

-41.5

43+

35

417

8.4

-£198.36

-47.6

 

A run in the past week is a definite plus and this is the key finding. However, it also looks worth avoiding runners off the track for over 3 weeks.

 

There are some trainers who seem to target different types of races and sellers are no exception. Two trainers to note are Ron Harris and David Evans – Harris has had 21 winners from 117 (SR 18%) for a profit of £65.07 (ROI +55.6); Evans has had 19 wins from 77 (SR 24.7%) for a profit of £44.40 (ROI +57.7%).

 

Jockey stats are limited for individual riders, but when we group them professional versus claiming jockeys we get some interesting results:

 

Jockey

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Professional

228

1617

14.1

-£338.13

-20.9

Claiming jockey

58

698

8.3

-£351.80

-50.4

 

It seems that there is clear edge to the more experienced rider in these contests.

 

Winning at the distance is still a factor punters take a note of – let us see if there has been any relevance here:

 

Distance wins

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

 0

116

1155

10.0

-£342.27

-29.6

1

48

452

10.6

-£211.47

-46.8

2

36

259

13.9

-£110.49

-42.7

3

23

145

15.9

-£18.97

-13.1

4+

63

304

20.7

-£6.57

-2.2

 

Well it does seem to make some difference – horses with one or two wins at the distance have produced poor returns while an improvement occurs for three-time distance winners. This improvement continues for horses that have won 4 or more races at the race distance.

 

Another factor that seems to make a difference in these races is past performance at the track. Let me compare the figures for horses that have won at least 21% of their races at the track with those who have a strike rate of 20% or less:

 

Track win%

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

0-20

187

1836

10.2

-£663.66

-36.1

21-100

99

479

20.7

-£26.11

-5.5

 

A decent past record at the track does seem to make a difference. Horses with a 21%+ win record at the track have scored twice as often as those scoring 20% of the time or less. Added to that they have lost only 5.5 pence for every £1 wagered.

 

Finally I am going to look at the win percentage of each horse over their career. Does that make any difference? Here are the findings:

 

 

Career win%

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

0%

23

508

4.5

-£280.30

-55.2

1-5%

18

218

8.3

-£58.84

-27.0

6-10%

89

687

13.0

-£153.99

-22.4

11-15%

79

560

14.1

-£180.22

-32.2

16-20%

42

212

19.8

-£12.29

-5.8

21%+

35

130

26.9

-£4.13

-31.8

 

Horses that have yet to win a race have a distinctly poor record, while there is a good improvement in performance when the career strike rate hits 16% or more.

 

All in all selling races on the all weather this winter are races that we should not dismiss out of hand – this article has hopefully shown you that by using stats, these races can be ‘attacked’ and attacked with some confidence.

 

 

 








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