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Late Season 2yo Maidens


 

Late Season 2yo Maidens by David Renham

 

In this article I am going to look at 2yo turf maidens run from September to November.  When researching this article I was going to focus on the last 5 seasons and look at numerous angles, but when I noted the decent record of favourites in these races, I decided to check back a further 5 years to see how favourites fared then too. As it turned out, they fared equally as well. Hence my focus changed somewhat and I decided to look into these favourites in 2yo turf maidens (Sept-Nov) in more detail. Here is what I found (data is taken from 2002-2011). All profit and loss is quoted to Starting Price.

 

First of all here is the record of all favourites which match the criteria set:

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

703

1803

39.0

+£1.40

+0.1

 

A break even situation over 10 years is quite remarkable so let us look at the yearly breakdown:

 

Year

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

2002

76

163

46.6

+£20.86

+12.8

2003

68

185

36.8

-£19.60

-10.6

2004

73

190

38.4

+£1.14

+0.6

2005

70

199

35.2

-£15.13

-7.6

2006

74

168

44.1

+£24.08

+14.3

2007

71

204

34.8

-£28.15

-13.8

2008

71

173

41.0

+£16.47

+9.5

2009

76

171

44.4

+£12.78

+7.5

2010

60

177

33.9

-£22.57

-12.8

2011

64

173

37.0

+£11.52

+6.7

 

6 winning years and 4 losing years which is what you would probably expect from a roughly break even 10 year record.

 

At this juncture I thought it was looking at price to see if there were any patterns that emerged. One clear pattern emerged with horses priced 2/1 or bigger far better value than those were less than 2/1. The table illustrates the difference:

 

Price

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

2/1 or bigger

220

752

29.3

+£71.73

+9.5

Less than 2/1

483

1051

46.0

-£70.33

-6.7

 

Clearly there is better value in the higher priced favourites and this will be accentuated if you back then Best Odds Guaranteed or Betfair SP.

 

Let me now move onto days since last run:

 

Days off track

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

debut

70

211

33.2

+£4.36

+2.1

1-14

164

424

38.7

-£29.59

-7.0

15-28

297

741

40.1

+£6.59

+0.9

29-42

97

236

41.1

+£9.03

+3.8

43-56

34

78

43.6

+£13.67

+17.5

57 or more

41

113

36.3

-£2.65

-2.4

 

There is no clear pattern to be gleaned from this data. However, it is interesting to see horses making their debut showing a profit when they start as favourite. 2yo debutants tend to have a very poor record, but clearly those who are fancied at this time of year do well. It is also worth noting that quick returners (1-14 days) have the poorest record in terms of returns. 2yos generally struggle when turned out too quickly as they are still physically immature and cannot take quick back to back races.

 

Onto breeding next - specifically country of breeding.

 

Country of breeding

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

FR

10

30

33.3

-£0.87

-2.9

GB

308

808

38.1

-£9.87

-1.2

IRE

245

631

38.8

-£18.25

-2.9

USA

130

307

42.4

+£32.98

+10.7

Other countries

10

27

37.0

-£2.59

-9.6

 

USA breds have a good record and remarkably they have made a profit in 9 of the 10 years. The shame is that USA breds are diminishing in numbers each year so it is not an angle that is likely to offer us much of a real edge in the future.

 

A course breakdown was my next port of call and here are the findings:

 

Course

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Ascot

1

2

50.0

+£0.00

+0.0

Ayr

25

53

47.2

+£8.65

+16.3

Bath

32

74

43.2

+£3.58

+4.8

Beverley

20

48

41.7

-£1.42

-3.0

Brighton

24

61

39.3

-£6.03

-9.9

Carlisle

4

9

44.4

+£0.98

+10.9

Catterick

25

67

37.3

-£1.37

-2.1

Chepstow

10

31

32.3

-£3.76

-12.1

Chester

13

20

65.0

+£6.59

+32.9

Doncaster

20

61

32.8

+£0.97

+1.6

Epsom

12

22

54.6

-£1.20

-5.4

Ffos Las

3

11

27.3

-£4.39

-39.9

Folkestone

7

30

23.3

-£10.43

-34.8

Goodwood

26

55

47.3

+£12.46

+22.7

Hamilton

11

21

52.4

+£1.61

+7.7

Haydock

34

80

42.5

+£5.12

+6.4

Kempton

8

17

47.1

+£2.72

+16.0

Leicester

27

86

31.4

-£23.85

-27.7

Lingfield

14

28

50.0

+£0.31

+1.1

Musselburgh

19

53

35.9

-£7.29

-13.8

Newbury

31

97

32.0

-£5.09

-5.3

Newcastle

29

70

41.4

-£2.55

-3.6

Newmarket

60

160

37.5

+£20.38

+12.7

Nottingham

47

135

34.8

-£8.50

-6.3

Pontefract

28

61

45.9

+£13.24

+21.7

Redcar

24

73

32.9

-£12.85

-17.6

Ripon

1

10

10.0

-£7.13

-71.3

Salisbury

18

54

33.3

+£3.40

+6.3

Sandown

9

28

32.1

-£5.80

-20.7

Southwell

0

3

0.0

-£3.00

-100.0

Thirsk

11

32

34.4

-£3.78

-11.8

Warwick

27

63

42.9

+£2.77

+4.4

Windsor

24

53

45.3

+£12.61

+23.8

Yarmouth

43

94

45.7

+£14.77

+15.7

York

16

41

39.0

-£0.32

-0.8

 

It is difficult to be confident that course patterns will remain the same over the next few years. However, the Newmarket stats are possibly the most likely to `repeat` as the results come from a relatively big sample size.

 

Who are the trainers to follow when their 2yo maidens start favourite at this time of the year? Here is a table showing all trainers that have secured 8 or more wins.

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Sir Mark Prescott

8

12

66.7

+£6.64

+55.3

Roger Charlton

22

39

56.4

+£14.36

+36.8

Henry Candy

8

16

50.0

+£8.96

+56.0

Bryan Smart

11

23

47.8

+£7.38

+32.1

Michael Bell

16

34

47.1

+£3.62

+10.7

John Gosden

44

94

46.8

+£13.10

+13.9

Mark Johnston

50

107

46.7

+£17.95

+16.8

Marcus Tregoning

10

22

45.5

+£2.67

+12.1

Sir Michael Stoute

50

118

42.4

-£0.57

-0.5

Saeed Bin Suroor

44

104

42.3

+£2.79

+2.7

Brian Meehan

23

55

41.8

+£1.80

+3.3

Paul Cole

10

25

40.0

-£1.75

-7.0

Tim Easterby

8

20

40.0

-£0.46

-2.3

Peter Chapple-Hyam

15

38

39.5

-£6.92

-18.2

Henry Cecil

13

33

39.4

-£3.10

-9.4

Mahmood Al Zarooni

9

24

37.5

+£3.64

+15.2

Richard Fahey

10

27

37.0

-£1.12

-4.1

William Haggas

12

33

36.4

-£5.28

-16.0

Amanda Perrett

9

25

36.0

-£4.40

-17.6

Mick Channon

19

54

35.2

-£2.70

-5.0

Jeremy Noseda

10

29

34.5

-£5.42

-18.7

Richard Hannon

34

100

34.0

-£1.94

-1.9

John Dunlop

20

75

26.7

-£28.54

-38.1

 

It is not surprising to see so many of the top trainers in this list. Many of their better two year olds will be running at this time of the season. Prescott, Charlton, Candy and Smart do have impressive records. On the other hand John Dunlop’s record is remarkably poor in comparison.

 

I now investigated LTO performance. I felt it was better to look at distance beaten rather than finishing position and this is what I found:

 

Beaten distance LTO

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

nose - 0.5 lengths

102

231

44.2

-£5.94

-2.6

>0.5 - 1.5 lengths

143

319

44.8

£8.28

+2.6

>1.5 - 3 lengths

132

373

35.4

-£49.66

-13.3

>3 - 5 lengths

103

279

36.9

-£28.88

-10.4

>5 lengths

153

389

39.3

+£74.24

+19.1

 

The most interesting trend/stat to date comes from this table. Horses that were beaten over 5 lengths LTO that go onto be favourite next time have an excellent record. A strike rate of roughly 4 wins in 10 and returns of over 19 pence in the £. Maybe punters are slightly put off by the fact they were beaten so far last time and allow their prices to start higher than they should – that is one possible explanation. However, whatever the reason, it is something we should take note of. Another LTO fact worth noting is that those horses that ran in a nursery handicap LTO have provided 33 wins from 77 (SR 42.9%) for a profit of £19.96 (ROI +25.9%).

 

Next I wanted to see if the going made any difference:

 

Surface

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Firm/hard

33

77

42.9

-£1.06

-1.4

Good To Firm

226

573

39.4

-£12.38

-2.2

Good

200

499

40.1

+£30.52

+6.1

Good To Soft

96

303

31.7

-£34.82

-11.5

Soft

110

269

40.9

+£8.71

+3.2

Heavy

35

80

43.8

+£10.43

+13.0

 

No clear patterns here other than perhaps the fact that favourites on soft or heavy have performed well making a profit on both types of easy ground. However, I cannot explain why the good to soft results are relatively disappointing.

 

I hope this article has offered you some potentially profitable angles this autumn. Let’s hope past results are replicated in 2012.

 








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