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Last Time Out All Weather Winners


 

Last Time Out All Weather Winners by David Renham

 

This week I am going to look into horses that won last time out on the all weather. The data for this article goes back to January 1st 2005. I also have focused on past winners that have run next time out on the flat.

Let us firstly look at the results of all horses that won LTO on the all weather provided they raced again on the level:

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

9906

1744

17.6

-£1,599.80

-16.2

 

A strike rate of 17.6% is not a bad starting point, but backing all runners would have lost you over 16 pence in the £ betting at SP. However, it is interesting when we examine whether their subsequent run was again on the all weather or whether they switched to turf:

 

Surface

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

All weather

7219

1410

19.5

-£934.52

-13.0

Turf

2687

334

12.4

-£665.28

-24.8

 

Clearly last time out all weather winners do best when sticking to the same type of surface. Horses that switch to turf after winning last time out on the sand lose nearly 25 pence in the £.

It seems therefore from a positive perspective to concentrate on last time all weather winners that raced on the all weather next time. Let us examine the courses where the win was achieved:

LTO course

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Great Leighs

289

50

17.3

-£53.88

-18.6

Kempton

1793

311

17.4

-£243.07

-13.6

Lingfield

2629

489

18.6

-£257.57

-9.8

Southwell

1937

362

18.7

-£412.16

-21.3

Wolverhampton

3258

532

16.3

-£633.12

-19.4

 

The returns when focusing on last time out winners at Lingfield has seen losses under 10 pence in the £.

 

Let us now look at what race type the wins were achieved in:

 

Race type LTO

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Amateur races

136

13

9.6

-£50.55

-37.2

Apprentice races

336

52

15.5

-£78.37

-23.3

Claimers

788

144

18.3

-£182.78

-23.2

Classified races

258

50

19.4

-£15.13

-5.9

Conditions races

106

16

15.1

-£25.75

-24.3

Fillies only

481

59

12.3

-£172.93

-36.0

Handicap races

5661

1026

18.1

-£990.39

-17.5

Listed races

69

15

21.7

+£11.05

+16.0

Maiden races

1849

313

16.9

-£168.28

-9.1

Novice races

62

15

24.2

+£26.09

+42.1

Nursery handicaps

332

73

22.0

-£7.43

-2.2

Sellers

557

84

15.1

-£140.19

-25.2

 

Winners from Listed races and Novice races would have produced profits if backing all runners on their next start, but to be honest the sample size is relatively small in both cases. Hence, we should be wary of taking these results at face value. That is not to say such runners will not be value in the future, it simply means that future profits cannot be guaranteed. Last time winners of all weather nursery handicaps have performed quite well from a decent sample size – losses of around 2 pence in the £ is interesting.

From a negative perspective horses that won fillies only races last time out have performed poorly on their next start. A strike rate of less than 1 win in 8 is poor, while losses of 36 pence in the £ means that these winners should be avoided!

Next stop is to look at market position – this is market position in their next race (after winning LTO):

Market position

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Favourite

2866

917

32.0

-£205.89

-7.2

2nd favourite

1827

373

20.4

-£113.65

-6.2

3rd favourite

1393

194

13.9

-£185.26

-13.3

4th in betting

1096

112

10.2

-£194.00

-17.7

5th in betting

2724

148

5.4

-£901.00

-33.1

 

It looks therefore best to concentrate on last time out winners that start first or second favourite on their next start. You would not have made a blind profit backing all runners, but with some selectivity, it is probably possible.

 

An area I always cross check on the all weather is the sex of the horse concerned. We have already seen that last time out winners from fillies only races do poorly, and overall females struggle compared to their male counterparts:

 

Sex of horse

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

male

7440

1393

18.7

-£968.05

-13.0

female

2466

351

14.2

-£631.75

-25.6

 

Female losses are almost doubled to that of those for male runners (25.6 pence in the £, compared with 13 pence in the £).

 

My final area of further exploration is connected with days since the last time out win was achieved. Here are the findings:

 

Days since last run

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

0-7

1505

363

24.1

-£55.27

-3.7

8-14

2784

489

17.6

-£520.67

-18.7

15-21

2007

333

16.6

-£455.47

-22.7

22-28

1146

188

16.4

-£226.29

-19.8

29-42

976

164

16.8

-£130.98

-13.4

43 or more

1488

207

13.9

-£211.12

-14.2

 

A very recent run has been a big plus with horses returning within a week performing well losing just under 4 pence in the £.

 

As we can see, it is not easy to find profitable angles with last time out all weather winners. We can certainly limit losses, but betting is about making money, so I have developed three systems that have shown profits since 2005:

 

LTO AW winner system 1

1. Won LTO at Lingfield aw

2. Courses – Kempton, Southwell, Wolverhampton

3. Months – November to March

4. Male runners only

The results read as follow:

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

439

120

27.3

+£74.56

+17.0

 

This system focuses on the fact that past Lingfield winners have the best record of all the LTO courses. Keeping qualifiers to the main all weather season means that we focus on all weather specialists and restricting it to male runners is another sensible rule as we have already seen that female runners tend to struggle. Combining these rules with running at a ‘weaker’ venue have provided solid returns for this system.

 

LTO AW winner system 2

1. Age – 3 year olds

2. Won a maiden LTO on aw

3. Courses – aw only

The results read as follow:

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

584

131

22.4

+£80.35

+13.8

 

Traditionally the simplest systems are the best ones and this 3-rule system has produced sound returns over the past five seasons.

 

LTO AW winner system 3

1. Won LTO on all weather.

2. 5 and 6f races

3. Days since last run 7 days or less

4. Age – 3 year olds and older

The results read as follow:

Bets

Wins

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

407

111

27.3

+£74.92

+18.4

 

The third and final system takes advantage of fit and in form sprinters. Whether this system, or the other two, continue to prove profitable in the future is difficult to say, because as with all systems, we can only judge them on past results.

 

 

 








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