Kempton (All Weather) – A Statistical Look
In this article I am going to look in detail at Kempton Park on the all weather. The data used is from the end of 2006 when Kempton embarked on all weather racing up to November 3rd 2010. I have looked at different race-types in an attempt to find an “edge” for punters – be it from a backing perspective, or a laying one.
2yo maidens
I am starting with 2yo maidens. At the time of writing there had been 235 such races and I started off by splitting the results by gender.
Sex of horse
| Sex of horse |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Male |
129 |
1131 |
11.4 |
-£317.13 |
-28.0 |
| Female |
106 |
1368 |
7.8 |
-£706.54 |
-51.7 |
Male runners have a definite edge in terms of strike rate and returns.
Sire stats can be useful in 2yo races as there many runners have limited experience and there are very few past performances to go on. Let us look at those sires that have performed best in 2yo maidens at Kempton.
Sires (5 winners minimum)
| Sire |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Elusive Quality |
5 |
12 |
41.7 |
+£3.82 |
+31.8 |
| Pivotal |
6 |
19 |
31.6 |
+£12.97 |
+68.2 |
| Fasliyev |
5 |
20 |
25.0 |
+£22.86 |
+114.3 |
| Red Ransom |
6 |
25 |
24.0 |
-£0.63 |
-2.5 |
| Dubawi |
5 |
23 |
21.7 |
+£20.25 |
+88.0 |
| Kheleyf |
5 |
25 |
20.0 |
+£7.19 |
+28.8 |
| Invincible Spirit |
6 |
31 |
19.4 |
+£16.63 |
+53.6 |
| Oasis Dream |
5 |
27 |
18.5 |
-£7.42 |
-27.5 |
| King's Best |
5 |
28 |
17.9 |
+£20.00 |
+71.4 |
| Diktat |
5 |
30 |
16.7 |
+£3.76 |
+12.5 |
| Bertolini |
7 |
51 |
13.7 |
-£24.56 |
-48.2 |
The sires above are worth a second glance in these races. It should be noted that when looking at other all weather courses some of the above sires continue to produce good figures – especially Elusive Quality, Pivotal, Invincible Spirit and Oasis Dream.
Betting Market position
| Market pos |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| favourite |
102 |
253 |
40.3 |
+£11.59 |
+4.6 |
| 2nd fav |
45 |
234 |
19.2 |
-£51.59 |
-22.1 |
| 3rd in betting |
34 |
244 |
13.9 |
-£19.67 |
-8.1 |
| 4th in betting |
16 |
238 |
6.7 |
-£83.50 |
-35.1 |
| 5th to 7th in betting |
31 |
727 |
4.3 |
-£265.50 |
-36.5 |
| 8th or bigger |
7 |
803 |
0.9 |
-£615.00 |
-76.6 |
Favourites have made a blind profit and on the whole there seems little point looking beyond the top three in the betting.
Trainers (5 winners minimum; SR 12%+)
| Trainers |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Saeed Bin Suroor |
15 |
40 |
37.5 |
+£6.81 |
+17.0 |
| J H M Gosden |
12 |
49 |
24.5 |
+£22.78 |
+46.5 |
| Sir Michael Stoute |
7 |
29 |
24.1 |
+£0.17 |
+0.6 |
| P F I Cole |
8 |
41 |
19.5 |
-£5.31 |
-13.0 |
| B W Hills |
10 |
52 |
19.2 |
-£22.79 |
-43.8 |
| R M Beckett |
9 |
50 |
18.0 |
+£25.58 |
+51.2 |
| R Charlton |
5 |
28 |
17.9 |
+£1.58 |
+5.6 |
| J R Best |
6 |
36 |
16.7 |
-£11.72 |
-32.6 |
| Mrs A J Perrett |
5 |
30 |
16.7 |
+£9.87 |
32.9 |
| W J Haggas |
5 |
33 |
15.2 |
-£12.11 |
-36.7 |
| S Kirk |
8 |
54 |
14.8 |
-£32.18 |
-59.6 |
| R Hannon |
22 |
156 |
14.1 |
-£56.89 |
-36.5 |
| M Botti |
5 |
38 |
13.2 |
+£23.00 |
+60.5 |
| Sir Mark Prescott |
5 |
41 |
12.2 |
-£19.88 |
-48.5 |
Some familiar names near the top of the trainer table – Bin Suroor and Gosden are two trainers worth following in 2yo maidens at the track.
Other stats to mention
| Variables |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Price 14/1 or bigger |
20 |
1378 |
1.5 |
-£933.00 |
-67.7 |
| Front runners |
51 |
238 |
21.4 |
N/A |
N/A |
| Debutants |
60 |
955 |
6.3 |
-£434.30 |
-45.5 |
| 2nd LTO |
50 |
172 |
29.1 |
-£23.95 |
-13.9 |
Front runners have a good record but as it is impossible to predict who will lead, I have not calculated any profits/returns. Debutants struggle, while horses that finished 2nd LTO are the most likely winners (although you still lose around 14p in every £).
3yo/3yo+ maidens
A look now at older maiden races.
Sex of horse
| Sex of horse |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| male |
140 |
1142 |
12.3 |
-£350.70 |
-30.7 |
| female |
89 |
1164 |
7.7 |
-£579.88 |
-49.8 |
Once again males have a significant edge in the gender stakes.
Sires (5 winners minimum)
| Sire |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Averti |
5 |
15 |
33.3 |
+£18.32 |
+122.2 |
| Bahamian Bounty |
5 |
16 |
31.3 |
+£18.29 |
+114.3 |
| Dansili |
6 |
20 |
30.0 |
+£37.45 |
+187.2 |
| King's Best |
7 |
34 |
20.6 |
+£35.42 |
+104.2 |
| Singspiel |
5 |
25 |
20.0 |
-£14.20 |
-56.8 |
| Galileo |
5 |
26 |
19.2 |
+£7.25 |
+27.9 |
| Bertolini |
5 |
41 |
12.2 |
-£19.00 |
-46.3 |
Some well known sires in the list and interesting to see King’s Best appear again.
Betting Market position
| Market pos |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| favourite |
92 |
241 |
38.2 |
-£28.09 |
-11.7 |
| 2nd fav |
56 |
236 |
23.7 |
-£7.88 |
-3.3 |
| 3rd in betting |
26 |
228 |
11.4 |
-£46.42 |
-20.4 |
| 4th in betting |
19 |
223 |
8.5 |
-£56.00 |
-25.1 |
| 5th to 7th in betting |
31 |
682 |
4.5 |
-£208.00 |
-30.5 |
| 8th or bigger |
5 |
696 |
0.7 |
-£584.20 |
-83.9 |
The top two in the betting tend to dominate these races.
Trainers (5 winners minimum; SR 18%+)
| Trainers |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| M A Jarvis |
14 |
36 |
38.9 |
+£37.47 |
+104.1 |
| Saeed Bin Suroor |
5 |
15 |
33.3 |
+3.13 |
+20.83 |
| M Botti |
5 |
19 |
26.3 |
+48.5 |
+255.26 |
| W J Haggas |
5 |
20 |
25.0 |
-1.43 |
-7.15 |
| M Johnston |
9 |
39 |
23.1 |
+£3.95 |
+10.1 |
| R M Beckett |
5 |
22 |
22.7 |
-£7.43 |
-33.8 |
| B W Hills |
7 |
31 |
22.6 |
+£27.25 |
+87.9 |
| A M Balding |
13 |
58 |
22.4 |
-£2.58 |
-4.5 |
| J Noseda |
8 |
42 |
19.1 |
-£14.97 |
-35.6 |
| J H M Gosden |
11 |
58 |
19.0 |
-£4.55 |
-7.8 |
| E A L Dunlop |
5 |
27 |
18.5 |
+£2.83 |
+10.5 |
Michael Jarvis has an outstanding record in these older maiden races, while Bin Suroor has done well from a limited number of runners.
Other stats to mention
| Variables |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Price 40/1 or bigger |
0 |
619 |
0.0 |
-£619.00 |
-100.0 |
| Debutants |
29 |
480 |
6.0 |
-£246.63 |
-51.4 |
| Jockey - J Fortune |
10 |
39 |
25.6 |
+£5.56 |
+14.3 |
| Claiming jockeys |
10 |
297 |
3.4 |
-£212.20 |
-71.5 |
| First time Blinkers/visor |
3 |
51 |
5.9 |
-£36.75 |
-72.1 |
Big outsiders (40/1 or bigger) have yet to record a win from over 600 runners. Debutants again perform poorly. Claiming jockeys have a very poor record – losses of over 70p in the £.
Claimers
There are plenty of low grade claiming races at Kempton and once again I will look at gender first.
Sex of horse
| Sex of horse |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| male |
121 |
898 |
13.5 |
-£223.06 |
-24.8 |
| female |
31 |
398 |
7.8 |
-£194.03 |
-48.8 |
The third race-type where males completely outperform females.
Betting Market position
| Market pos |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| favourite |
57 |
172 |
33.1 |
-£29.92 |
-17.4 |
| 2nd fav |
34 |
148 |
23.0 |
-£5.92 |
-4.0 |
| 3rd in betting |
23 |
149 |
15.4 |
-£14.75 |
-9.9 |
| 4th in betting |
18 |
160 |
11.3 |
-£7.00 |
-4.4 |
| 5th to 7th in betting |
14 |
368 |
3.8 |
-£179.50 |
-48.8 |
| 8th or bigger |
6 |
299 |
2.0 |
-£180.00 |
-60.2 |
Favourites in claimers generally do well so it is a surprise to see losses of 17p in the £. However, the market is a good guide with the top 4 of the betting dominating.
Trainers (5 winners minimum; SR 15%+)
| Trainers |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| T G Dascombe |
6 |
14 |
42.9 |
+£4.57 |
+32.7 |
| M Botti |
6 |
20 |
30.0 |
+£12.88 |
+64.4 |
| K A Ryan |
6 |
23 |
26.1 |
+£0.16 |
+0.7 |
| G L Moore |
8 |
31 |
25.8 |
+£5.88 |
+19.0 |
| J Pearce |
5 |
26 |
19.2 |
-£9.25 |
-35.6 |
| J S Moore |
7 |
38 |
18.4 |
+£4.50 |
+11.8 |
| A P Jarvis |
5 |
32 |
15.6 |
+£3.38 |
+10.6 |
| P D Evans |
8 |
53 |
15.1 |
-£10.98 |
-20.7 |
Not surprising to see a different group of trainers here. Tom Dascombe, Gary Moore and Kevin Ryan all have a strike rate of over 20% in ALL claiming races at ALL courses (both turf and aw) so it is no surprise to see then high on the list.
Other stats to mention
| Variables |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Front runners |
31 |
154 |
20.1 |
N/A |
N/A |
| 5 / 7lb claiming jockeys |
11 |
196 |
5.6 |
-£121.30 |
-61.9 |
| Price 25/1 or bigger |
1 |
318 |
0.3 |
-£284.00 |
-89.3 |
| Ran in seller LTO |
9 |
155 |
5.8 |
-£89.38 |
-57.7 |
Three negatives worth noting in the above table.
Finally a look at handicaps:
Handicaps
Sex of horse
| Sex of horse |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| male |
1209 |
12387 |
9.8 |
-£2878.71 |
-23.2 |
| female |
366 |
4343 |
8.4 |
-£873.61 |
-20.1 |
A much more balanced set of results – the first race-type where there is not a big difference between the performance of males and female runners.
Sires (10 winners minimum; SR 13%+)
| Sire |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Spectrum |
18 |
70 |
25.7 |
+£70.61 |
+100.9 |
| Exceed and Excel |
17 |
71 |
23.9 |
+£54.81 |
+77.2 |
| Dubai Destination |
17 |
84 |
20.2 |
+£22.20 |
+26.4 |
| Rahy |
11 |
56 |
19.6 |
+£31.91 |
+57.0 |
| Cadeaux Genereux |
24 |
141 |
17.0 |
+£32.75 |
+23.2 |
| Daggers Drawn |
10 |
67 |
14.9 |
+£52.50 |
+78.4 |
| Pivotal |
29 |
199 |
14.6 |
+£49.48 |
+24.9 |
| Intikhab |
13 |
91 |
14.3 |
+£6.83 |
+7.5 |
| Singspiel |
16 |
116 |
13.8 |
-£12.75 |
-11.0 |
| Daylami |
10 |
76 |
13.2 |
+£20.67 |
+27.2 |
| Fantastic Light |
14 |
107 |
13.1 |
+£28.58 |
+26.7 |
| King's Best |
28 |
215 |
13.0 |
+£38.23 |
+17.8 |
| Mujahid |
16 |
123 |
13.0 |
+£21.88 |
+17.8 |
King’s Best and Pivotal once again appear in the table and they are clearly two sires worth noting at this course.
Betting Market position
| Market pos |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| favourite |
454 |
1770 |
25.7 |
-£172.75 |
-9.8 |
| 2nd fav |
279 |
1607 |
17.4 |
-£227.65 |
-14.2 |
| 3rd in betting |
188 |
1609 |
11.7 |
-£363.42 |
-22.6 |
| 4th in betting |
140 |
1643 |
8.5 |
-£482.50 |
-29.4 |
| 5th to 7th in betting |
349 |
4660 |
7.5 |
-£635.00 |
-13.6 |
| 8th to 11th in betting |
150 |
4273 |
3.5 |
-£1188.00 |
-27.8 |
| 12th or bigger |
15 |
1168 |
1.3 |
-£683.00 |
-58.5 |
Favourites win around 1 in 4 races but it is difficult to find an edge with the betting market.
Trainers (10 winners minimum; SR 14%+)
| Trainers |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike rate% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Saeed Bin Suroor |
10 |
31 |
32.3 |
+£4.06 |
+13.1 |
| Mrs J Chapple-Hyam |
14 |
51 |
27.5 |
+£40.00 |
+78.4 |
| J R Fanshawe |
16 |
78 |
20.5 |
+£27.58 |
+35.4 |
| L M Cumani |
12 |
59 |
20.3 |
-£5.47 |
-9.3 |
| Pat Eddery |
15 |
81 |
18.5 |
+£75.73 |
+93.5 |
| Sir Mark Prescott |
14 |
76 |
18.4 |
-£33.21 |
-43.7 |
| M A Jarvis |
16 |
88 |
18.2 |
-£24.00 |
-27.3 |
| J Gask |
12 |
68 |
17.7 |
+£14.00 |
+20.6 |
| W J Haggas |
11 |
65 |
16.9 |
+£0.77 |
+1.2 |
| C G Cox |
15 |
90 |
16.7 |
+£14.88 |
+16.5 |
| T Keddy |
11 |
66 |
16.7 |
+£36.75 |
+55.7 |
| S C Williams |
21 |
130 |
16.2 |
+£28.25 |
+21.7 |
| W R Swinburn |
28 |
175 |
16.0 |
+£12.85 |
+7.4 |
| M Johnston |
30 |
189 |
15.9 |
-£55.91 |
-29.6 |
| A W Carroll |
35 |
237 |
14.8 |
+£31.25 |
+13.2 |
| J H M Gosden |
10 |
68 |
14.7 |
-£26.55 |
-39.0 |
| G L Moore |
46 |
318 |
14.5 |
-£43.96 |
-13.8 |
| R M Beckett |
11 |
76 |
14.5 |
+£2.18 |
+2.9 |
| M Botti |
15 |
105 |
14.3 |
+£35.13 |
+33.5 |
| W R Muir |
15 |
105 |
14.3 |
+£46.50 |
+44.3 |
| D K Ivory |
26 |
183 |
14.2 |
+£59.75 |
+32.7 |
| A M Balding |
24 |
169 |
14.2 |
+£23.38 |
+13.8 |
Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list and he clearly is a trainer who is worth close scrutiny at the course as this is the third time he has appeared prominently in a trainer table.
Hopefully this article will help you when considering a bet at Kempton this winter.
