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Kempton All Weather A Statistical Look


Kempton (All Weather) – A Statistical Look

In this article I am going to look in detail at Kempton Park on the all weather. The data used is from the end of 2006 when Kempton embarked on all weather racing up to November 3rd 2010. I have looked at different race-types in an attempt to find an “edge” for punters – be it from a backing perspective, or a laying one.

2yo maidens

I am starting with 2yo maidens. At the time of writing there had been 235 such races and I started off by splitting the results by gender.

Sex of horse

Sex of horse Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Male 129 1131 11.4 -£317.13 -28.0
Female 106 1368 7.8 -£706.54 -51.7

 

Male runners have a definite edge in terms of strike rate and returns.

Sire stats can be useful in 2yo races as there many runners have limited experience and there are very few past performances to go on. Let us look at those sires that have performed best in 2yo maidens at Kempton.

Sires (5 winners minimum)

Sire Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Elusive Quality 5 12 41.7 +£3.82 +31.8
Pivotal 6 19 31.6 +£12.97 +68.2
Fasliyev 5 20 25.0 +£22.86 +114.3
Red Ransom 6 25 24.0 -£0.63 -2.5
Dubawi 5 23 21.7 +£20.25 +88.0
Kheleyf 5 25 20.0 +£7.19 +28.8
Invincible Spirit 6 31 19.4 +£16.63 +53.6
Oasis Dream 5 27 18.5 -£7.42 -27.5
King's Best 5 28 17.9 +£20.00 +71.4
Diktat 5 30 16.7 +£3.76 +12.5
Bertolini 7 51 13.7 -£24.56 -48.2

 

The sires above are worth a second glance in these races. It should be noted that when looking at other all weather courses some of the above sires continue to produce good figures – especially Elusive Quality, Pivotal, Invincible Spirit and Oasis Dream.

Betting Market position

Market pos Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
favourite 102 253 40.3 +£11.59 +4.6
2nd fav 45 234 19.2 -£51.59 -22.1
3rd in betting 34 244 13.9 -£19.67 -8.1
4th in betting 16 238 6.7 -£83.50 -35.1
5th to 7th in betting 31 727 4.3 -£265.50 -36.5
8th or bigger 7 803 0.9 -£615.00 -76.6

 

Favourites have made a blind profit and on the whole there seems little point looking beyond the top three in the betting.

Trainers (5 winners minimum; SR 12%+)

Trainers Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 15 40 37.5 +£6.81 +17.0
J H M Gosden 12 49 24.5 +£22.78 +46.5
Sir Michael Stoute 7 29 24.1 +£0.17 +0.6
P F I Cole 8 41 19.5 -£5.31 -13.0
B W Hills 10 52 19.2 -£22.79 -43.8
R M Beckett 9 50 18.0 +£25.58 +51.2
R Charlton 5 28 17.9 +£1.58 +5.6
J R Best 6 36 16.7 -£11.72 -32.6
Mrs A J Perrett 5 30 16.7 +£9.87 32.9
W J Haggas 5 33 15.2 -£12.11 -36.7
S Kirk 8 54 14.8 -£32.18 -59.6
R Hannon 22 156 14.1 -£56.89 -36.5
M Botti 5 38 13.2 +£23.00 +60.5
Sir Mark Prescott 5 41 12.2 -£19.88 -48.5

 

Some familiar names near the top of the trainer table – Bin Suroor and Gosden are two trainers worth following in 2yo maidens at the track.

Other stats to mention

Variables Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Price 14/1 or bigger 20 1378 1.5 -£933.00 -67.7
Front runners 51 238 21.4 N/A N/A
Debutants 60 955 6.3 -£434.30 -45.5
2nd LTO 50 172 29.1 -£23.95 -13.9

 

Front runners have a good record but as it is impossible to predict who will lead, I have not calculated any profits/returns. Debutants struggle, while horses that finished 2nd LTO are the most likely winners (although you still lose around 14p in every £).

3yo/3yo+ maidens

A look now at older maiden races.

Sex of horse

Sex of horse Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
male 140 1142 12.3 -£350.70 -30.7
female 89 1164 7.7 -£579.88 -49.8

 

Once again males have a significant edge in the gender stakes.

Sires (5 winners minimum)

Sire Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Averti 5 15 33.3 +£18.32 +122.2
Bahamian Bounty 5 16 31.3 +£18.29 +114.3
Dansili 6 20 30.0 +£37.45 +187.2
King's Best 7 34 20.6 +£35.42 +104.2
Singspiel 5 25 20.0 -£14.20 -56.8
Galileo 5 26 19.2 +£7.25 +27.9
Bertolini 5 41 12.2 -£19.00 -46.3

 

Some well known sires in the list and interesting to see King’s Best appear again.

Betting Market position

Market pos Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
favourite 92 241 38.2 -£28.09 -11.7
2nd fav 56 236 23.7 -£7.88 -3.3
3rd in betting 26 228 11.4 -£46.42 -20.4
4th in betting 19 223 8.5 -£56.00 -25.1
5th to 7th in betting 31 682 4.5 -£208.00 -30.5
8th or bigger 5 696 0.7 -£584.20 -83.9

 

The top two in the betting tend to dominate these races.

Trainers (5 winners minimum; SR 18%+)

Trainers Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
M A Jarvis 14 36 38.9 +£37.47 +104.1
Saeed Bin Suroor 5 15 33.3 +3.13 +20.83
M Botti 5 19 26.3 +48.5 +255.26
W J Haggas 5 20 25.0 -1.43 -7.15
M Johnston 9 39 23.1 +£3.95 +10.1
R M Beckett 5 22 22.7 -£7.43 -33.8
B W Hills 7 31 22.6 +£27.25 +87.9
A M Balding 13 58 22.4 -£2.58 -4.5
J Noseda 8 42 19.1 -£14.97 -35.6
J H M Gosden 11 58 19.0 -£4.55 -7.8
E A L Dunlop 5 27 18.5 +£2.83 +10.5

 

Michael Jarvis has an outstanding record in these older maiden races, while Bin Suroor has done well from a limited number of runners.

Other stats to mention

Variables Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Price 40/1 or bigger 0 619 0.0 -£619.00 -100.0
Debutants 29 480 6.0 -£246.63 -51.4
Jockey - J Fortune 10 39 25.6 +£5.56 +14.3
Claiming jockeys 10 297 3.4 -£212.20 -71.5
First time Blinkers/visor 3 51 5.9 -£36.75 -72.1

 

Big outsiders (40/1 or bigger) have yet to record a win from over 600 runners. Debutants again perform poorly. Claiming jockeys have a very poor record – losses of over 70p in the £.

Claimers

There are plenty of low grade claiming races at Kempton and once again I will look at gender first.

Sex of horse

Sex of horse Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
male 121 898 13.5 -£223.06 -24.8
female 31 398 7.8 -£194.03 -48.8

 

The third race-type where males completely outperform females.

Betting Market position

Market pos Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
favourite 57 172 33.1 -£29.92 -17.4
2nd fav 34 148 23.0 -£5.92 -4.0
3rd in betting 23 149 15.4 -£14.75 -9.9
4th in betting 18 160 11.3 -£7.00 -4.4
5th to 7th in betting 14 368 3.8 -£179.50 -48.8
8th or bigger 6 299 2.0 -£180.00 -60.2

 

Favourites in claimers generally do well so it is a surprise to see losses of 17p in the £. However, the market is a good guide with the top 4 of the betting dominating.

Trainers (5 winners minimum; SR 15%+)

Trainers Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
T G Dascombe 6 14 42.9 +£4.57 +32.7
M Botti 6 20 30.0 +£12.88 +64.4
K A Ryan 6 23 26.1 +£0.16 +0.7
G L Moore 8 31 25.8 +£5.88 +19.0
J Pearce 5 26 19.2 -£9.25 -35.6
J S Moore 7 38 18.4 +£4.50 +11.8
A P Jarvis 5 32 15.6 +£3.38 +10.6
P D Evans 8 53 15.1 -£10.98 -20.7

 

Not surprising to see a different group of trainers here. Tom Dascombe, Gary Moore and Kevin Ryan all have a strike rate of over 20% in ALL claiming races at ALL courses (both turf and aw) so it is no surprise to see then high on the list.

Other stats to mention

Variables Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Front runners 31 154 20.1 N/A N/A
5 / 7lb claiming jockeys 11 196 5.6 -£121.30 -61.9
Price 25/1 or bigger 1 318 0.3 -£284.00 -89.3
Ran in seller LTO 9 155 5.8 -£89.38 -57.7

 

Three negatives worth noting in the above table.

Finally a look at handicaps:

Handicaps

Sex of horse

Sex of horse Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
male 1209 12387 9.8 -£2878.71 -23.2
female 366 4343 8.4 -£873.61 -20.1

 

A much more balanced set of results – the first race-type where there is not a big difference between the performance of males and female runners.

Sires (10 winners minimum; SR 13%+)

Sire Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Spectrum 18 70 25.7 +£70.61 +100.9
Exceed and Excel 17 71 23.9 +£54.81 +77.2
Dubai Destination 17 84 20.2 +£22.20 +26.4
Rahy 11 56 19.6 +£31.91 +57.0
Cadeaux Genereux 24 141 17.0 +£32.75 +23.2
Daggers Drawn 10 67 14.9 +£52.50 +78.4
Pivotal 29 199 14.6 +£49.48 +24.9
Intikhab 13 91 14.3 +£6.83 +7.5
Singspiel 16 116 13.8 -£12.75 -11.0
Daylami 10 76 13.2 +£20.67 +27.2
Fantastic Light 14 107 13.1 +£28.58 +26.7
King's Best 28 215 13.0 +£38.23 +17.8
Mujahid 16 123 13.0 +£21.88 +17.8

 

King’s Best and Pivotal once again appear in the table and they are clearly two sires worth noting at this course.

Betting Market position

Market pos Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
favourite 454 1770 25.7 -£172.75 -9.8
2nd fav 279 1607 17.4 -£227.65 -14.2
3rd in betting 188 1609 11.7 -£363.42 -22.6
4th in betting 140 1643 8.5 -£482.50 -29.4
5th to 7th in betting 349 4660 7.5 -£635.00 -13.6
8th to 11th in betting 150 4273 3.5 -£1188.00 -27.8
12th or bigger 15 1168 1.3 -£683.00 -58.5

 

Favourites win around 1 in 4 races but it is difficult to find an edge with the betting market.

Trainers (10 winners minimum; SR 14%+)

Trainers Wins Runs Strike rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 10 31 32.3 +£4.06 +13.1
Mrs J Chapple-Hyam 14 51 27.5 +£40.00 +78.4
J R Fanshawe 16 78 20.5 +£27.58 +35.4
L M Cumani 12 59 20.3 -£5.47 -9.3
Pat Eddery 15 81 18.5 +£75.73 +93.5
Sir Mark Prescott 14 76 18.4 -£33.21 -43.7
M A Jarvis 16 88 18.2 -£24.00 -27.3
J Gask 12 68 17.7 +£14.00 +20.6
W J Haggas 11 65 16.9 +£0.77 +1.2
C G Cox 15 90 16.7 +£14.88 +16.5
T Keddy 11 66 16.7 +£36.75 +55.7
S C Williams 21 130 16.2 +£28.25 +21.7
W R Swinburn 28 175 16.0 +£12.85 +7.4
M Johnston 30 189 15.9 -£55.91 -29.6
A W Carroll 35 237 14.8 +£31.25 +13.2
J H M Gosden 10 68 14.7 -£26.55 -39.0
G L Moore 46 318 14.5 -£43.96 -13.8
R M Beckett 11 76 14.5 +£2.18 +2.9
M Botti 15 105 14.3 +£35.13 +33.5
W R Muir 15 105 14.3 +£46.50 +44.3
D K Ivory 26 183 14.2 +£59.75 +32.7
A M Balding 24 169 14.2 +£23.38 +13.8

 

Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list and he clearly is a trainer who is worth close scrutiny at the course as this is the third time he has appeared prominently in a trainer table.

Hopefully this article will help you when considering a bet at Kempton this winter.








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