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June Trainers - 2011


 

June Trainers (Flat)

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of June with data taken from 2005 to 2010.

June sees some excellent meetings including the Derby meeting at Epsom and Royal Ascot.

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (June 05-10) – 70 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

50

188

26.6

+£21.84

+11.6

Jeremy Noseda

53

237

22.4

+£25.57

+10.8

Sir Michael Stoute

80

404

19.8

-£51.78

-12.8

Saeed Bin Suroor

46

254

18.1

-£59.71

-23.5

R Guest

13

73

17.8

+£12.23

+16.8

R M Beckett

52

293

17.8

+£88.47

+30.2

Luca Cumani

44

257

17.1

-£32.38

-12.6

William Haggas

52

306

17.0

-£0.63

-0.2

N A Callaghan

22

130

16.9

-£29.72

-22.9

Michael Jarvis

53

319

16.6

-£80.68

-25.3

Alan Swinbank

56

339

16.5

+£13.69

+4.0

Richard Hannon

169

1063

15.9

+£8.11

+0.8

Chris Wall

29

184

15.8

+£63.41

+34.5

Pat Eddery

18

118

15.3

-£2.75

-2.3

Roger Charlton

32

212

15.1

-£30.16

-14.2

Hughie Morrison

38

252

15.1

+£27.15

+10.8

Henry Cecil

30

200

15.0

-£16.60

-8.3

Richard Price

18

120

15.0

+£45.25

+37.7

Simon Dow

18

127

14.2

+£39.29

+30.9

Ann Duffield

27

192

14.1

+£60.83

+31.7

E J O'Neill

15

107

14.0

+£21.86

+20.4

 

Sir Mark Prescott has a good overall record in June thanks to a strike rate that equates to better than 1 win in 4. The value for Prescott’s runners has been with his second and third favourites. They have combined for 16 wins from 57 (SR 28.1%) for a profit of £22.38 (ROI +39.3%). Indeed, the market seems to be a good guide to the chances of his runners with 48 of his 50 winners priced 7/1 or shorter. It should also be noted that he is 6 wins from 11 with horses wearing either blinkers, visor or a hood. For “in running” punters take note of any Prescott runner that takes the lead early – 18 wins and 14 placed efforts from just 42 runners for front runners indicates that there are profits to be made if you are able to ‘get on’ soon after the start.

 

Ralph Beckett is an interesting trainer worth noting. He has had 11 winners at double figure odds and he also has made solid profits with favourites and second favourites. It is difficult to highlight specific horses to concentrate on, but there are definitely some Beckett horses to avoid. Horses wearing any sort of headgear (blinkers, visors, cheekpieces, etc) have provided just 3 winners from 46 (SR 3.8%) for a loss of £30.38 (ROI -66%).

 

Jeremy Noseda has a 41% strike rate with favourites, which is worth noting. He also has a decent record with LTO winners – these runners have provided 11 wins from 39 (SR 28.2%) for a profit of £13.44 (ROI +34.5%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (June 05-10) – 70 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Robert Cowell

6

119

5.0

-£5.00

-4.2

James Bethell

7

141

5.0

-£81.38

-57.7

Derek Haydn Jones

4

82

4.9

-£31.50

-38.4

Mark Usher

7

154

4.6

-£64.00

-41.6

James Eustace

4

90

4.4

-£24.50

-27.2

John Wainwright

7

158

4.4

-£41.00

-26.0

David Arbuthnot

3

72

4.2

-£48.00

-66.7

Michael Mullineaux

3

81

3.7

-£46.50

-57.4

Alan Berry

10

271

3.7

-£152.00

-56.1

Harry Dunlop

3

83

3.6

-£26.13

-31.5

John Harris

3

85

3.5

-£73.50

-86.5

Christine Dunnett

5

143

3.5

-£50.50

-35.3

Linda Perratt

6

174

3.5

-£99.50

-57.2

Mel Brittain

4

116

3.5

-£51.00

-44.0

John Weymes

5

146

3.4

-£110.25

-75.5

Tony Newcombe

3

91

3.3

-£58.50

-64.3

Ron Hodges

3

97

3.1

-£71.00

-73.2

Eve Johnson Houghton

4

137

2.9

-£107.92

-78.8

Nerys Dutfield

2

74

2.7

-£60.00

-81.1

J R Jenkins

4

162

2.5

-£109.00

-67.3

John Balding

2

87

2.3

-£59.00

-67.8

Paul Howling

4

179

2.2

-£148.17

-82.8

John Bridger

3

150

2.0

-£129.00

-86.0

Michael Blanshard

3

164

1.8

-£134.50

-82.0

Donal Nolan

0

70

0.0

-£70.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 17 of the 25 trainers have shown losses of over 50%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season, not just June. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in June since 2005. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (June 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 12%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Jeremy Noseda

7

25

28.0

-£0.76

-3.1

E J O'Neill

9

37

24.3

+£50.17

+135.6

K R Burke

16

68

23.5

+£39.13

+57.5

Michael Jarvis

8

34

23.5

+£25.15

+74.0

Sir Mark Prescott

12

60

20.0

+£9.34

+15.6

Ed McMahon

7

35

20.0

+£3.50

+10.0

Saeed Bin Suroor

6

30

20.0

-£7.93

-26.5

Richard Hannon

59

300

19.7

-£28.99

-9.7

R M Beckett

11

56

19.6

+£28.00

+50.0

Kevin Ryan

19

102

18.6

+£41.01

+40.2

B W Hills

15

81

18.5

-£14.25

-17.6

Paul Cole

10

55

18.2

+£11.79

+21.4

John Gosden

8

46

17.4

-£2.20

-4.8

Mahmood Al Zarooni

5

30

16.7

-£7.25

-24.2

David Nicholls

6

37

16.2

-£0.88

-2.4

Clive Cox

5

31

16.1

+£13.08

+42.2

Michael Bell

8

51

15.7

+£11.63

+22.8

Mark Johnston

23

154

14.9

-£47.41

-30.8

Bryan Smart

9

62

14.5

-£5.97

-9.6

P C Haslam

5

35

14.3

-£4.25

-12.1

Richard Fahey

15

106

14.2

-£26.54

-25.0

Mick Channon

34

242

14.1

-£39.92

-16.5

Howard Johnson

7

50

14.0

-£15.75

-31.5

John Best

6

43

14.0

+£1.13

+2.6

Brian Meehan

14

102

13.7

-£49.65

-48.7

Ann Duffield

5

37

13.5

+£60.25

+162.8

Amanda Perrett

5

41

12.2

-£2.38

-5.8

John Dunlop

9

74

12.2

+£5.63

+7.6

Tom Tate

3

25

12.0

+£18.75

+75.0

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens, but it is also worth noting those trainers that have struggled in these races:

 

All 2yo maiden races (June 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 4% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

J R Jenkins

1

25

4.0

-£10.00

-40.0

Mark Usher

1

25

4.0

-£16.00

-64.0

Mel Brittain

1

25

4.0

-£8.00

-32.0

Marcus Tregoning

1

28

3.6

-£25.63

-91.5

Ed Dunlop

2

58

3.5

-£55.42

-95.6

David Elsworth

1

29

3.5

-£17.00

-58.6

Michael Dods

1

33

3.0

-£18.00

-54.6

Dean Ivory

1

34

2.9

-£15.00

-44.1

Alan Berry

1

35

2.9

-£18.00

-51.4

Mark H Tompkins

1

37

2.7

-£35.33

-95.5

Paul Midgley

1

37

2.7

-£29.50

-79.7

Jonathan Portman

1

50

2.0

-£41.00

-82.0

Michael Easterby

0

62

0.0

-£62.00

-100.0

Michael Blanshard

0

38

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

John Weymes

0

31

0.0

-£31.00

-100.0

 

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

 

All 3yos running in maiden races (June 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 12%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Jeremy Noseda

19

77

24.7

-£1.38

-1.8

Sir Michael Stoute

30

126

23.8

-£39.36

-31.2

Mick Channon

8

34

23.5

-£4.36

-12.8

B W Hills

22

97

22.7

-£19.58

-20.2

Michael Jarvis

19

86

22.1

-£33.11

-38.5

William Haggas

13

59

22.0

+£4.80

+8.1

Gerard Butler

6

28

21.4

-£3.25

-11.6

Mark Johnston

21

107

19.6

+£15.23

+14.2

Saeed Bin Suroor

8

41

19.5

-£17.58

-42.9

John Gosden

21

111

18.9

-£15.29

-13.8

Andrew Balding

7

39

18.0

+£1.92

+4.9

R M Beckett

7

39

18.0

-£9.98

-25.6

Richard Hannon

9

51

17.7

+£4.36

+8.6

Henry Cecil

15

86

17.4

+£11.86

+13.8

Ed Dunlop

11

71

15.5

-£29.63

-41.7

Hughie Morrison

4

26

15.4

-£6.53

-25.1

Marcus Tregoning

10

66

15.2

-£30.86

-46.8

 

Despite some decent strike rates, making money from 3yos in maidens is not easy. More digging is required for some of the above. For example, if you focus on Jeremy Noseda’s runners that started in the top 4 of the betting you move into profit – 19 wins from 64 (SR 29.7%) for a profit of £11.62 (ROI +18.2%).

 

In terms of trainers to avoid Richard Fahey is 0 wins from 37 with his 3yos in maidens, while Howard Johnson is 0 from 24.

 

All in all June seems to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.

 

 

 








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