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June Trainers (Flat) by David Renham
Each month I have tried to write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Likewise they seem to under-perform at other times o f the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of June with data taken from 2003 to 2009.
June sees some excellent meetings including the Derby meeting at Epsom and Royal Ascot.
Firstly let us look at all races.
All races (June 03-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)
Sir Mark Prescott has a good overall record in June and the value has been with his second and third favourites. They have combined for 18 wins from 62 (SR 29%) for a profit of £24.25 (ROI +39.1%). Indeed, the market seems to be a very good guide to the chances of his runners with just 1 win from 52 for horses priced 15/2 or bigger. For “in running” punters take note of any Prescott runner that takes the lead early – 14 wins and 13 placed efforts from just 41 runners for front runners indicates that there are profits to be made if you are able to ‘get on’ soon after the start.
Ralph Beckett is an interesting trainer worth noting. He has had 14 winners at double figure odds and he also has made solid profits with favourites and second favourites. It is difficult to highlight specific horses to concentrate on, but there are definitely some Beckett horses to avoid. Horses wearing any sort of headgear (blinkers, visors, cheekpieces, etc) have provided just 2 winners from 53 (SR 3.8%) for a loss of £40.25 (ROI -75.9%).
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (June 03-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 32 of the trainers have shown losses of over 50%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers overall in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in June since 2003. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (June 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 12%+)
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in 2yo maidens:
- Eoghan O’Neill has saddled 8 winners from just 14 runners over 5f. It should be noted now that he is likely to have less runners in this country now as he has recently moved his racing operation to France;
- Richard Hannon has a good record at Newmarket in June having saddled 9 winners from 23 (SR 39.1%) for a profit of £32.41 (ROI +140.9%);
- Hannon’s runners should also be noted if they have previously run and been beaten by 3 lengths or less. Such runners have produced 25 winners from 59 (SR 42.4%) for a profit of £24.10 (ROI +40.9%);
- Michael Jarvis has a good record with 2yos making their debuts in maidens in June. He has produced 8 winners from 24 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £42.15 (ROI +175.6%);
- Ralph Beckett’s 2yo maidens should be scrutinized carefully “in running”. 25 of his runners have been held up and all have been beaten; the remaining 33 runners that led or raced close to the pace have provided 10 winners!
- Mark Johnston has a distinctly moderate record and it is surprising to see his stable jockey Joe Fanning managing just 4 winners from 58 rides (SR 6.9%). Backing all Fanning’s mounts would have seen losses in excess of 80%.
It should be noted that even these broken down figures cannot always be taken too literally – for example, Saeed Bin Suroor’s figures are not as good as they first appear as 7 of the 9 winners came in 2004. Indeed since 2005 he has had just 2 winners from 20. As with any raw stat you often need to dig a bit deeper.
Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:
All 3yos running in maiden races (June 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 12%+)
Here are some additional stats for 3yos running in maiden races in June:
- Willie Haggas has a much better record with his male runners. They have provided 12 winners from 42 (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £22.93 (ROI +54.6%);
- The market is a good guide to the chances of Haggas runners. Horses 5th or bigger in the betting have provided 0 winners from 14; the top 4 of the betting have provided 17 wins from 46 (SR 37%);
- Jeremy Noseda’s results also reflect a market bias with all his winners coming from the top 4 of the betting;
- Noseda has a better record with male runners. They have scored 32.6% of the time whereas female runners have scored 19.4% of the time;
- Mark Johnston is impressive 4 wins and 2 placed from just 7 runners at Redcar.
All in all June seems to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.
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