Articles >> horse-racing >>

June Trainers


 

June Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I have tried to write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Likewise they seem to under-perform at other times o f the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of June with data taken from 2003 to 2009.

June sees some excellent meetings including the Derby meeting at Epsom and Royal Ascot.

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (June 03-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

50

197

25.4

+£14.68

+7.5

J Noseda

55

243

22.6

+£36.81

+15.2

Sir Michael Stoute

96

465

20.7

-£68.95

-14.8

Saeed Bin Suroor

59

307

19.2

-£69.88

-22.8

W J Haggas

61

335

18.2

+£21.68

+6.5

J R Fanshawe

51

293

17.4

+£15.38

+5.3

T G Dascombe

16

93

17.2

+£4.37

+4.7

C F Wall

36

218

16.5

+£87.21

+40.0

L M Cumani

49

299

16.4

-£62.80

-21.0

G A Swinbank

50

318

15.7

+£20.94

+6.6

R Charlton

39

250

15.6

-£35.68

-14.3

H R A Cecil

31

201

15.4

-£29.13

-14.5

R J Price

18

117

15.4

+£40.75

+34.8

J H M Gosden

67

436

15.4

-£142.19

-32.6

M A Jarvis

55

363

15.2

-£61.99

-17.1

Miss B Sanders

11

73

15.1

-£5.00

-6.9

R Hannon

182

1215

15.0

+£12.38

+1.0

M Johnston

146

982

14.9

-£146.55

-14.9

R M Beckett

46

314

14.7

+£100.62

+32.1

H Morrison

41

291

14.1

+£25.52

+8.8

N A Callaghan

28

199

14.1

-£57.27

-28.8

M P Tregoning

30

214

14.0

-£13.12

-6.1

Lady Herries

8

58

13.8

+£35.00

+60.3

D R C Elsworth

42

312

13.5

+£37.63

+12.1

E S McMahon

18

134

13.4

-£20.50

-15.3

R Guest

16

120

13.3

+£10.06

+8.4

M L W Bell

48

366

13.1

-£49.75

-13.6

E J O'Neill

17

130

13.1

+£20.36

+15.7

R A Fahey

103

790

13.0

-£66.50

-8.4

 

Sir Mark Prescott has a good overall record in June and the value has been with his second and third favourites. They have combined for 18 wins from 62 (SR 29%) for a profit of £24.25 (ROI +39.1%). Indeed, the market seems to be a very good guide to the chances of his runners with just 1 win from 52 for horses priced 15/2 or bigger. For “in running” punters take note of any Prescott runner that takes the lead early – 14 wins and 13 placed efforts from just 41 runners for front runners indicates that there are profits to be made if you are able to ‘get on’ soon after the start.

 

Ralph Beckett is an interesting trainer worth noting. He has had 14 winners at double figure odds and he also has made solid profits with favourites and second favourites. It is difficult to highlight specific horses to concentrate on, but there are definitely some Beckett horses to avoid. Horses wearing any sort of headgear (blinkers, visors, cheekpieces, etc) have provided just 2 winners from 53 (SR 3.8%) for a loss of £40.25 (ROI -75.9%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (June 03-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

J S Wainwright

12

246

4.9

-£95.13

-38.7

P A Blockley

10

205

4.9

-£131.42

-64.1

A Berry

23

472

4.9

-£215.63

-45.7

C R Dore

5

107

4.7

-£84.25

-78.7

D W P Arbuthnot

4

87

4.6

-£55.00

-63.2

D Haydn Jones

5

109

4.6

-£37.50

-34.4

J D Bethell

8

179

4.5

-£100.92

-56.4

M C Chapman

5

114

4.4

-£16.00

-14.0

M D I Usher

7

162

4.3

-£77.50

-47.8

C W Fairhurst

4

94

4.3

-£34.00

-36.2

Miss L A Perratt

9

215

4.2

-£63.50

-29.5

Miss A Stokell

4

97

4.1

-£54.88

-56.6

B P J Baugh

3

74

4.1

+£7.50

+10.1

J R Jenkins

8

198

4.0

-£110.50

-55.8

B W Duke

2

50

4.0

-£39.80

-79.6

Miss E C Lavelle

2

50

4.0

-£28.50

-57.0

Dr J R J Naylor

2

53

3.8

-£33.00

-62.3

A D Brown

2

55

3.6

-£45.75

-83.2

E A Wheeler

2

55

3.6

-£28.75

-52.3

M Brittain

4

112

3.6

-£47.00

-42.0

B A McMahon

2

59

3.4

-£31.00

-52.5

G C Bravery

2

59

3.4

-£18.50

-31.4

John A Harris

3

94

3.2

-£82.50

-87.8

T Keddy

2

64

3.1

-£52.50

-82.0

R E Barr

4

130

3.1

-£88.50

-68.1

M Blanshard

6

197

3.1

-£141.50

-71.8

J Balding

4

134

3.0

-£94.00

-70.2

Mrs S Lamyman

2

67

3.0

-£49.00

-73.1

P Howling

6

204

2.9

-£148.17

-72.6

M Mullineaux

3

106

2.8

-£62.00

-58.5

R M H Cowell

4

147

2.7

-£56.00

-38.1

J R Weymes

4

164

2.4

-£127.75

-77.9

Eve Johnson Houghton

2

98

2.0

-£82.25

-83.9

C J Teague

1

50

2.0

-£43.50

-87.0

G R Oldroyd

1

51

2.0

-£43.50

-85.3

J W Unett

1

56

1.8

-£51.00

-91.1

T D McCarthy

1

58

1.7

-£37.00

-63.8

C W Thornton

1

65

1.5

-£61.25

-94.2

Mrs P N Dutfield

2

137

1.5

-£123.00

-89.8

W Storey

1

76

1.3

-£55.00

-72.4

J J Bridger

2

163

1.2

-£143.00

-87.7

D A Nolan

0

95

0.0

-£95.00

-100.0

M E Sowersby

0

52

0.0

-£52.00

-100.0

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 32 of the trainers have shown losses of over 50%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers overall in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in June since 2003. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (June 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 12%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

9

33

27.3

+£6.43

+19.5

J Noseda

6

24

25.0

-£1.13

-4.7

E J O'Neill

10

43

23.3

+£48.67

+113.2

J H M Gosden

11

50

22.0

-£11.31

-22.6

K R Burke

18

86

20.9

+£30.63

+35.6

T G Dascombe

6

29

20.7

+£6.50

+22.4

M A Jarvis

8

39

20.5

+£27.15

+69.6

E S McMahon

6

31

19.4

+£5.00

+16.1

R Hannon

63

330

19.1

-£26.29

-8.0

R Charlton

5

27

18.5

-£5.27

-19.5

W J Haggas

4

22

18.2

-£4.38

-19.9

J Howard Johnson

8

45

17.8

-£3.75

-8.3

R Hollinshead

4

23

17.4

+£42.00

+182.6

B W Hills

16

94

17.0

-£24.74

-26.3

R M Beckett

10

59

17.0

+£21.00

+35.6

B J Meehan

21

125

16.8

-£48.67

-38.9

K A Ryan

16

100

16.0

+£5.35

+5.4

M L W Bell

11

69

15.9

-£4.98

-7.2

M Johnston

29

182

15.9

-£61.72

-33.9

A P Jarvis

5

32

15.6

-£4.25

-13.3

P F I Cole

8

52

15.4

+£2.58

+5.0

J A Osborne

8

53

15.1

-£9.55

-18.0

B Smart

10

67

14.9

+£12.03

+18.0

D Nicholls

5

34

14.7

-£5.63

-16.5

C G Cox

4

28

14.3

+£11.75

+42.0

Sir Mark Prescott

10

73

13.7

-£9.47

-13.0

M R Channon

31

248

12.5

-£56.32

-22.7

P C Haslam

7

56

12.5

+£25.75

+46.0

S Kirk

7

56

12.5

-£7.00

-12.5

J R Best

6

48

12.5

-£3.88

-8.1

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in 2yo maidens:

 

-         Eoghan O’Neill has saddled 8 winners from just 14 runners over 5f. It should be noted now that he is likely to have less runners in this country now as he has recently moved his racing operation to France;

 

-         Richard Hannon has a good record at Newmarket in June having saddled 9 winners from 23 (SR 39.1%) for a profit of £32.41 (ROI +140.9%);

 

-         Hannon’s runners should also be noted if they have previously run and been beaten by 3 lengths or less. Such runners have produced 25 winners from 59 (SR 42.4%) for a profit of £24.10 (ROI +40.9%);

 

-         Michael Jarvis has a good record with 2yos making their debuts in maidens in June. He has produced 8 winners from 24 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £42.15 (ROI +175.6%);

 

-         Ralph Beckett’s 2yo maidens should be scrutinized carefully “in running”. 25 of his runners have been held up and all have been beaten; the remaining 33 runners that led or raced close to the pace have provided 10 winners!

 

-         Mark Johnston has a distinctly moderate record and it is surprising to see his stable jockey Joe Fanning managing just 4 winners from 58 rides (SR 6.9%). Backing all Fanning’s mounts would have seen losses in excess of 80%.

 

It should be noted that even these broken down figures cannot always be taken too literally – for example, Saeed Bin Suroor’s figures are not as good as they first appear as 7 of the 9 winners came in 2004. Indeed since 2005 he has had just 2 winners from 20. As with any raw stat you often need to dig a bit deeper.

 

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

 

All 3yos running in maiden races (June 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 12%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

W J Haggas

17

60

28.3

+£16.40

+27.3

J Noseda

21

77

27.3

+£5.62

+7.3

Saeed Bin Suroor

13

49

26.5

-£5.82

-11.9

Sir Michael Stoute

34

133

25.6

-£44.49

-33.5

J H M Gosden

32

137

23.4

-£10.69

-7.8

M Johnston

25

110

22.7

+£39.63

+36.0

M A Jarvis

19

89

21.4

-£18.50

-20.8

B W Hills

24

120

20.0

-£35.58

-29.7

M L W Bell

6

30

20.0

-£4.65

-15.5

P W Chapple-Hyam

6

33

18.2

+£11.28

+34.2

E A L Dunlop

14

79

17.7

-£32.12

-40.7

M P Tregoning

13

74

17.6

-£27.61

-37.3

H R A Cecil

17

101

16.8

-£7.08

-7.0

D R C Elsworth

8

52

15.4

+£28.00

+53.9

M R Channon

9

60

15.0

-£29.09

-48.5

J G Given

5

34

14.7

+£64.38

+189.3

D M Simcock

3

21

14.3

+£14.40

+68.6

G A Butler

5

35

14.3

-£12.50

-35.7

W Jarvis

5

35

14.3

-£8.33

-23.8

B R Millman

3

22

13.6

+£6.25

+28.4

J R Fanshawe

11

81

13.6

-£28.45

-35.1

R Charlton

7

53

13.2

-£28.42

-53.6

Mrs A J Perrett

7

54

13.0

-£21.37

-39.6

M H Tompkins

4

31

12.9

+£6.58

+21.2

J L Dunlop

10

82

12.2

-£52.35

-63.8

L M Cumani

10

83

12.1

-£39.19

-47.2

T D Barron

3

25

12.0

-£20.50

-82.0

 

Here are some additional stats for 3yos running in maiden races in June:

 

-         Willie Haggas has a much better record with his male runners. They have provided 12 winners from 42 (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £22.93 (ROI +54.6%);

 

-         The market is a good guide to the chances of Haggas runners. Horses 5th or bigger in the betting have provided 0 winners from 14; the top 4 of the betting have provided 17 wins from 46 (SR 37%);

 

-         Jeremy Noseda’s results also reflect a market bias with all his winners coming from the top 4 of the betting;

 

-         Noseda has a better record with male runners. They have scored 32.6% of the time whereas female runners have scored 19.4% of the time;

 

-         Mark Johnston is impressive 4 wins and 2 placed from just 7 runners at Redcar.

 

All in all June seems to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.

 








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com